This week we bring our 3 part series to a close with the launch of our strategic asset allocation breakdown for 2026. We have used the PIMFA Balanced portfolio model as the generic base. The biggest difference between our allocation perspective and that of the generic model is around country bias. 

The generic model is based on the global balanced portfolio from a UK based investor. However, unless one is a US resident, most investors will also face over compensation allocation issues to their jurisdictions. 

In the case of the UK, the generic model is suggesting a total UK exposure (be it equity, bond, Real Estate or currency) at 42%. Given that the UK accounts for less than 3% of global GDP, we have set the total UK exposure at 4.2%. We’re not keen anyhow on the UK opportunity be it equity, bond or currency. 

The other major differences is our higher exposure to International equities and within that to the US. We suggest bond holdings both at government and corporate levels be spread internationally and not UK and Global Emerging Markets, Gold & commodities exposure and the Japanese Yen as a hedge against a potentially weak USD. 

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You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

This week we talk to Phil Langham, who heads the $28bn Emerging Markets Equity Fund at RBC BlueBay Asset Management. Phil gives us insights into how the 12-person strong team analyses and allocates the fund across EM and shares his thoughts on the asset class for 2026.

We discuss the impact of a potentially weak US on EM and the likely winners and losers. EM has significant concentration risk with over 30% of the MSCI Global EM Index in just 10 companies and many of those weighted toward technology in the form of TSMC* (Taiwan based Semiconductor Foundry) at 11.4%, Tencent* (China based social media and gaming platform) at 5%, Samsung* (S.Korean technology) at 3.3% and Alibaba* (China e-commerce) at 3.3% amongst the largest. Phil tells us how the team deal with this concentration risk and how RBC differentiates itself with deep dive analysis and constant C-suite contact. 

Phil’s team pay a lot of attention to the macro environment in the countries where they invest but the driving force comes from an allocation strategy focused on sectors. Whilst liquidity, corporate governance and currency volatility have improved over the last couple of dacades, those factors still play a key role in the investment decision and there is a member of the team solely focused on these macro risks. Phil is uncomfortable with the high valued technology sector (and reducing weight) going into 2026 but likes domestic consumption and financials. He is also re-visiting India which has under performed in 2025. In terms of frontier markets, performance has been lacklustre, but Vietnam stands out as a potential highflyer in the coming year. Overall, valuation for EM is attractive vs developed markets and in particular vs the US. 

Emerging Markets potentially offer better growth, a US Dollar hedge and more attractive valuation going into 2026. 

Go to RBC Emerging Markets Equity Fund For more information on the fund
https://www.rbcgam.com/en/ca/products/mutual-funds/RBF699/detail

Go to RBC BlueBay Asset Management for more information about the group.
https://www.rbcbluebay.com/en-gb/wholesale/
 

*Weights taken from latest MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD) report

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Last week we set the markers for why we think 2026 will be largely economically expansive in nature, particularly in the 1st half and led by the US. This week we look at the themes that may dominate within the scope of the macro background that we have posited.

The biggest trade in 2025 was AI capex. This is a revolutionary movement and will continue into 2026. At the edge, we’ll begin to see the productivity benefits and the impact of Agentics on workflows. Developments in Inference requiring 15x memory power to just LLMs will require further capex and energy which becomes the major bottleneck.

Lower interest rates and fear of higher inflation will drive Gold & commodities higher. But Trump’s need to keep a lid on prices is unlikely to benefit oil as it retains a tight range with a ceiling driven by Saudi led production and a floor driven by US intimidation of Venezuela that keeps the oil price just where it remains viable for US shale production to continue.

Financials in the US benefit from better margins thanks to a steepening yield curve whilst the Space race continues apace with the IPO of SpaceX as potentially the biggest ever in the Spring.

The higher long-end of the yield curve may well affect mortgages leading to continued under performance in housing. Trump’s anti sustainability stance is not going to help the alternative energy space and China & UK domestic demand will not help their markets to thrive.

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This week we talk to Julien Coustaury who founded FRC in 2016 with only a $2.5mn fund looking for seed & pre-seed opportunities in Eastern Europe. Today, Julien and his team are into their 3rd fund and well on the way to $100mn of AUM and over 170 investments made across their funds. 

FRC has had a number of major successes including Native Team originally founded in Skopje, Macedonia. FRC invested at a E5mn valuation in 2021. The business was recently valued at E300mn with exit expectations by the fund team at E1bn+. Native Teams manages international hiring, payroll & compliance. They operate in over 85 countries and have approximately 200 employees. 

The company encompasses the basic vision for FRC, local companies with global reach. Julien and his co-founder Roger Blott are keen to keep the operation small, flexible and always approachable to the founders of their investee companies, hence the raise for the 3rd fund of E55-60mn. 

This also enhances returns and incentivises the GP team to rely on carry for their return and not management fees. There are few players in the region in this segment, as a result, the top ideas and talent permeates toward FRC’s investment platform.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

In this week’s Insight’s we begin a 3 part series for 2026, splitting sections into Macro (this week), Micro/themes (next week) and asset allocation for 2026 vs a generic model (a week after that).

We see the macro picture in 2026 split into two. The Trump administration is way behind in the poles and needs a booming economy heading into the mid-term elections in November. The Fed gets a new head in May and by then we’ll have 5 of 7 rate setting committee members as Trump appointees. What follows next is the direct impact of these actions.

Monetary & Fiscal policy are likely to become even more accommodative to the point where the real interest rate yield in the US may even slip into negative territory leading to a weak USD and ultimately higher inflation in H2.

There’s likely to be a steepening of the US yield curve as the Fed over extends on the short-end whilst investors, fearing inflation push the long end higher, commonly known as a Bear Steepener.

Globally, the Japanese Yen may well be the best performing currency as the Central Bank continues its upward move in rates. Europe has little growth, no further rate cuts and a stable currency whilst the UK may face currency weakness if fiscal deficits continue ballooning.

Emerging markets and commodities ex Oil continue to boom. Gold accelerates on lower rates and threat of inflation.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

In this week’s Insight’s we take a look at the big capital injection coming out of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill in Q1 2026 and the implication to market liquidity. We also discuss the US’s latest inflation release, the Bank of England’s rate cut (and why the BoE can’t afford to cut any further) and why the Japanese Yen is looking so attractive for 2026.

We also delve into the world of Prediction Markets. What is this new area? How big is it? Who are the big winners and why it matters to investors? At its core, Prediction markets are at the intersection of Finance, Gambling and Crypto activity.

We also comment on why we think Bitcoin has been so lacklustre in 2025 and why the old notions of inverse correlation to risk-assets is plain nonsense!

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

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This week we speak to Simon about Gold. Why buy it? Where it fits in a global multi-asset portfolio and how will it perform in 2026. Gold is as an inversely correlated asset to a weak USD, low US rates and inflation. All of which are appearing on the horizon as President Trump’s administration gear up for the mid-term elections in November 26.

The front runner for the Fed governorship, Kevin Hassett is an avowed dove. He is more than likely going to engineer at least another 50 basis points of declines in Fed rates and potentially create an environment of negative real rates. This puts gold in the ascendancy.

Simon will tell us which gold asset types are available to investors and we talk about the current demand-supply environment. Central banks have been active buyers of late, in part to hedge away from the USD and diversify their purchases beyond US treasuries.

Gold offers no income and is tough to value. However, it is becoming clear that despite its shining performance in 2025, the runes are positive for more upside going into next year.

To see more from Simon, check out The Gold Program:https://goldprogram.co.uk/

If you want to see this in video format check out our channel Ben's Market Chat

https://youtu.be/IqR-x3SmN0g

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This week we look at the impact of a Kevin Hassett appointment as head of the Federal Reserve. Hasset is currently the front-runner for the top job at the Fed and a Trump acolyte. Translated into economics, this means a heightened likelihood of a dovish stance on interest rates. Throw in the mid-term elections into the mix and it would appear that H1 26 may well witness an environment of excessive liquidity and lower than expected interest rates to potentially lead to negative real yields which in turn drive capital into risk assets. In this scenario, the USD weakens. The inverse correlation of a weak USD are strong performances in global emerging markets (GEM), commodities and gold. 

According to Goldman Sachs, 27% of global GDP resides in GEM stock markets.  In parallel to developed markets, stock concentration persists. According to MSCI Global data, Like the MAG7, GEM has almost 25% of its total market capitalisation in just 10 stocks including TSMC, Samsung, Tencent and Alibaba. We believe that that the AI and technology earnings momentum is far from over going into 2026. With that in mind the heavy tech concentration in the GEM MAG7 equivalent potentially offers the technology exposure but without the USD headwind. We’ll hear more about GEM from one of the world’s leading emerging markets investors, Phil Langham of RBC Asset Management in our interview segment in the new year. 

If there’s going to be an overtly expansionist policy in H1 26 to garner mid-term votes, the likelihood is that inflation begins to bite in the second half of the year. With weak USD, lower rates and an inflationary overhang, gold is likely to continue to perform strongly in the coming year. We’ll hear from Simon Popple of the Gold Programme this week on why he thinks gold is likely to continue to offer investors a positive return in 2026. Industrial metals and the general commodities complex also benefit from a weak USD but copper & Uranium in particular are likely to witness structural growth thanks to the continued expansion of data centres, AI overlay and cloud facilitation. Both need connectivity and power and copper and Uranium are key in the foodchain.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

This week we talk to Susanne Chishti, founder and chair of Fintech Circle, the UK’s largest angel network in the Fintech ecosystem with a network of over 260,000 entrepreneurs, investors, finance professionals, academic and government representatives. 

Susanne tells us why the UK excels at nurturing and growing major financial innovators such as Revolut, Wise, Monzo and Starling. She expands on the types of winners and potential losers to come and how financial market liberation through the 2nd Payment Service Directive (PSD2) has opened the opportunity for investors and founders to take on the behemoths and win. 

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.

In this week’s episode we look at Japan’s impact on global liquidity as local investors turn their backs on International markets. We also assess whether the Epstein case has turned Trump into an early lame duck even ahead of the mid-term elections and what that could mean for growth and deregulation in the world’s biggest economy.

We then turn our attention to all things AI. Is depreciation policy a matter for concern? We think so. There is certainly a case to be made that earnings in this space are getting overstated. Furthermore, overcapacity is building. A concerted and major demand momentum has to be maintained for some time to eat into the capex spend in the space. It could well be the case that pure AI plays may lag and diverge from the large cap tech performance going into 26.

Do you think the AI story will continue to crowd-out the business news space in 2026? Let us know your thoughts and we’ll be happy to share your views on our next podcast.

Always do your own research or seek the advice of your professional financial advisor.

You can find us on LinkedIn and YouTube, Money Matters, Ben Hakham CEO at Traderoutes Capital.