Between the Bells

Yesterday, the local market had its worst day of the month, however energy and materials remained strong, boosted by discussions by the US to ban Russian oil imports into the US.  

As commodities continue to rise, oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL) was up 9.5%, and strong gains were made by gold miners Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST), Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) and Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR). Copper miner IGO (ASX:IGO) and other large mining stocks also lead the ASX200. 

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients included Lake Resources (ASX:LKE), Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL) and 29Metals (ASX:29M). 

US shares tumbled overnight, amid concerns of higher energy prices stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as inflation concerns. The Dow lost almost 800 points, down 2.4%, the S&P500 down 3%, while the Nasdaq fell 3.6%, now sitting in bear market territory.

What to watch today:

• Following US equities, the Australia market is set to open flat this morning. 
• In commodities, the oil price surged to near US$130 a barrel, now trading at US$119. 
• Gold has also jumped, topping $2,000 per ounce for the first time since August 2020. Gold is seen as a safe-haven metal and therefore demand for gold has risen. 
• Seaborne iron ore is also higher. And wheat has jumped as well. Ukraine is responsible for more than 25% of the world’s wheat exports, which will be severely disrupted this year. 
• In economic news, the NAB Business Confidence index will be released today 11:30am AEDT. The index bounced to 3 in January this year, from December’s low of -12. February’s figure is expected to fall to 1. 
• There are several companies going ex-dividend today also, including Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU), Lovisa (ASX:LOV), Mader Group (ASX:MAD) and Sonic Healthcare (ASX:SHL).

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain their BUY rating on Flight Centre (ASX:FLT), retaining a positive view on the stocks outlook and competitive position as global travel recovers. Bell Potter have upped their target price from $20 to $20.50. The stock last closed at $17.05, implying 20.2% share price growth in a year. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Cobalt Blue Holdings (ASX:COB), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $0.65 to the range of $0.82 to $0.88, over 34 days.

On Friday the ASX200 dropped 0.6%, with the tech sector down the most, after making solid gains earlier in the week. 

Some big tech names were among the worst performing stocks, including Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR), EML Payments (ASX:EML), Zip (ASX:Z1P) and Block (ASX:SQ2). 

Meanwhile, gold miners made the most gains as the spot price rose. Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) and Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR) were the top three stocks on Friday. 

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday were Santos (ASX:STO), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), and BHP Group (ASX:BHP). 

As the invasion of Ukraine continues to rattle global markets, European markets had the worst week since March 2020. US equities also closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones down 0.5%, the S&P500 down 0.8%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.7%. This was despite a better-than-expected US jobs report. The US unemployment rate was down to 3.8%. 

What to watch today: 

• The SPI futures are suggesting the local market will rise 0.4% higher at the open this morning. 
• The strong oil rally continues. Oil is trading 7% higher and reached US$115 a tonne This is as the US looks to cut off US imports of oil and petroleum products to Russia. Additionally, OPEC will remain with the existing agreement for a gradual increase in production. 
• Energy prices were higher across the broad after news that Russian troops had attacked a nuclear power plant in Ukraine. 
• Gold is higher at US$1,970 an ounce, and seaborne iron ore is higher at US$152 a tonne. 
• In economic data, today Australian job advertisement data will be announced for February. 
• And some stocks set to go ex-dividend today include CSL (ASX:CSL), Australian Financial Group (ASX:AFG), Altium (ASX:ALU), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX:BEN), and Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST). 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain their Speculative BUY rating on Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) and have decreased their valuation to $12.02. Bell Potter says the company has demonstrated resource growth potential and the commencement of regional exploration programs signal potential positive news flow on ongoing exploration success. Macquarie also have an Outperform rating on the stock and a $10.55 price target. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in EMvision Medical Devices (ASX:EMV), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $1.98 to the range of $2.25 to $2.31, over 29 days. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated this week, however the Aussie share market managed to gain 2.2% (Mon-Thu).
 
 In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers: 

• (0:10) How countries and companies are disarming Russia
• (1:58) Why conflict based sell-offs are typically short-lived
• (2:44) Energy producers and miners making solid gains
• (3:20) Zip (ASX:Z1P) falling 15% after announcing Sezzle takeover
• (3:59) The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients
• (4:40) Two economic news items to watch out for 

The energy sector continued to gain, supported by the rising oil price. Energy prices are on the rise, with the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, one of the world’s largest energy producers. Energy closed 4.9% higher yesterday and materials closed 3% higher. 

Economic growth data was also released yesterday. The Australia economy saw its strongest lift since 1976. GDP grew by 3.4% in the December quarter. The largest contribution to the economic expansion was household spending, up 3.2%. 

Stocks that made strong gains off the back of soaring commodity prices included Santos (ASX:STO) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL). And the big mining stocks gained, including Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WTC), South32 (ASX:S32), Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR), Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS), Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO).

And the most trading stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday included Core Lithium (ASX:CXO), Lake Resources  (ASX:LKE) and Australia and New Zealand Bank (ASX:ANZ). 

Stocks rebounded in New York overnight, despite the escalating war in Ukraine and soaring commodity prices. It was a broad rally, the Dow up 1.8%, the S&P500 up 1.9% and the Nasdaq up 1.6%. 

What to watch today:

• Following US equities, the local market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.99% rise at the open this morning. 
• In economic news, balance of trade data for January will be released today.
• Oil jumped another 7% and is now trading at US$111 per barrel. The International Energy Agency, the IEA, has warned that global energy security is under threat as the worsening crisis in Ukraine and broadening sanctions against Russia create fears of further supply disruptions. 
• Gold is trading lower at US$1,926 an ounce, while the seaborne iron ore price has jumped to $146 a tonne. 
• Some of the big names going ex-dividend today include Woolworths (ASX:WOW), Coles (ASX:COL), Pro Medicus (ASX:PME), IGO (ASX:IGO) and ASX (ASX:ASX). 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain their BUY rating on Select Harvests (ASX:SHV) and have lowered their price target from $7.10 to $6.85. SHV last closed at $5.55, implying 23.4% share price growth in a year.
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) indicating that the price may rise from the close of $1.23 to the range of $1.55 to $1.63 over 29 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

The ASX200 closed 0.7% higher, with tech once again in the lead, with investors moving back into tech. This was after a rally by the Nasdaq and coincided with a drop in the US 2-year Treasury yield. Meanwhile utilities declined the most. Investors were also conscious of the RBA’s meeting yesterday. The RBA held the cash rate at 0.1% and mentioned that the Russia – Ukraine war is a major source of uncertainty, considering the supply issues and effects on global energy markets. The bank is expecting inflation to further increase to 3 ¼ %, and then decline to approximately 2 ¾ %over the course of next year. 

Looking at the ASX200 leaderboard, Pointsbet Holdings (ASX:PBH) was the top performer, while big tech names also made the top 10, including EML Payments and Tyro Payments, as well as Block (ASX:SQ2), which jumped more than 12% to $175.16 after Macquarie said its share price could rise near 50% within the next year. Among the tech rally, Xero (ASX:XRO) and WiseTech (ASX:WTC) also gained. 

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday included Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA), Transurban Group (ASX:TCL), BHP (ASX:BHP), ANZ (ASX:ANZ) and NAB (ASX:NAB). 

European and US markets suffered heavy losses overnight. The Dow Jones lost nearly 600 points, down 1.8%, the S&P500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 1.6%. 

The local market is set to drop, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.92% fall at the open this morning. 

What to watch today: 

• In economic data, today the GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be released. 
• In commodities, the oil price continues to move higher, reigniting concerns for interest rates and growth. Oil leapt for than 10% to above US$105 per barrel. Gold is trading higher at its strongest levels since January 2021 and the seaborne iron ore price is sitting at US$143 a tonne. 
• Some of the companies set to go ex-dividend today include GQG Partners (ASX:GQG), Link Administration (ASX:LNK), oOh!media (ASX:OML), Platinum Asset Management (ASX:PTM), and Telstra (ASX:TLS). 
• Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) is set to report its earnings today. 

Trading Ideas: 

• Bel Potter maintain their Buy rating on Avita Medical (ASX:AVH) and have slashed their price target from $9 to $4.60. Bell Potter continue to forecast excellent long term growth for AVH, however say it is unlikely to manifest over the next year. AVH last closed at $3.23, implying 42.4% share price growth in a year. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Vimy Resources (ASX:VMY) indicating its price may rise to $0.26 to $0.28 over 26 days. 

Yesterday the ASX200 closed in the green, with eight of the eleven industry sectors higher. The materials and energy sectors lead the market yesterday, underpinned by strong oil prices. 

On the ASX200 leaderboard, Blackmores (ASX:BKL) gained the most, rebounding from the previous session. On Friday BKL dropped 10.5% following its earnings report, before bouncing back on Monday and closing 9.8% higher. Ord Minnett and Morgans say Blackmores is a Hold, while Citi have a Sell rating. Meanwhile, Life360 (ASX:360) was the worst performer, falling 9%. 360 is a Bell Potter Buy. 

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday included BHP Limited (ASX:BHP), Accent Group (ASX:AX1), Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR) and Westpac (ASX:WBC). 

US equities closed mixed overnight. The Dow down 0.5%, the S&P500 down 0.2%, while the Nasdaq closed 0.4% higher. 

The local market is set to rise, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.23% rise at the open this morning. 

What to watch today:

• Oil prices continue to rally as the war escalates in Ukraine. Oil is currently 4.8% higher at US$95 a barrel. The gold price had its largest monthly gain since May, trading higher at US$1,910 an ounce. And the seaborne iron ore price is lower at US$141 a tonne. 
• In economic data, today the RBA will announce its interest rate decision, expected to remain unchanged at 0.1%. 
• As reporting season wraps up, many companies are set to go ex-dividend this week. This often sees shares fall, as investors take their profits. Today, ex-dividend stocks include AUB Group (ASX:AUB), Endeavour Group (ASX:EDV) and Origin Energy (ASX:ORG). 

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter maintain their Buy rating on BWX (ASX:BWX) and have decrease their price target from $6.10 to $4.90. BWX delivered a statutory NPAT loss of $2.3 million, due to several headwinds relating to the COVID-19 lockdowns.
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Lotus Resources (ASX:LOT), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $0.29 to the range of $0.34 to $0.36, over 24 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

On Friday the tech sector made a comeback, advancing more than 8% following Block’s quarterly results. 

Block (ASX:SQ2) is the US payment company that acquired Afterpay last month, and its ASX listed shares jumped 32.5% on Friday to $153.75. Quarterly revenue surpassed analysts’ forecasts, increasing 29% higher than the year prior. Life360 (ASX:360) was another top performer. Now on Thursday, 360 fell 29%  to $4.60 following its earnings report. The stock then rebounded on Friday, up 22% to $5.71. Meanwhile, Blackmores (ASX:BKL) was 10.5% lower, falling for the second consecutive session, after reporting a decline in revenue for its Australia and New Zealand region. Magellan Financial (ASX:MFG) also closed 10% lower, after reporting a further decline in its funds under management.

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients on Friday included Mount Gibson Iron (ASX:MGX), Transurban Group (ASX:TCL), Westpac (ASX:WBC), Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) and ANZ (ASX:ANZ). 

US equities closed with strong gains on Friday. The Dow up 2.5%, and S&P500 up 2.3% and the tech heavy Nasdaq up 1.6%. 

Following the rally in New York, the ASX200 is set to jump at the open this morning. The futures are suggesting a rise of 2.4% at the open. 

What to watch today: 

• In commodities, oil is lower at US$91.80 a barrel, following a rally in the prior session, that saw prices top US$100 for the first time since 2014. The gold price is also lower amid concerns over the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And the seaborne iron ore price is down to US$141 a tonne. 
• In economic data, retail sales data for January will be released today. 
• Approximately 15 companies are set to report their earnings results today, including the Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) and Mesoblast (ASX:MSB). 
• Some big names are also set to go ex-dividend today, including Aurizon (ASX:AZJ), Credit Corp Group (ASX:CCP), Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN), and Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG). 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintain their BUY rating on Infomedia (ASX:IFM), a leading provider of software solutions in the automotive industry. Following the company’s half year results, Bell Potter have decreased their price target from $2 to $1.85, considering the earnings changes as well as market movements and time creep. IFM reported revenue grew 24% to $59 million, 5% above Bell Potter’s forecast. IFM last closed at $1.43, implying 29.4% share price growth in a year.  
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN), indicating that the price may rise from the close of $0.77 to the range of $1.01 to $1.07, within 33 days. Bell Potter say PDN is a Speculative stock and have maintained their Hold rating. 

The Aussie share market fell 3.2% (Mon-Thu), weighed down by Thursday's loss, the market's worst day since September 2020. Consumer staples managed to advance more than 4%, while tech shares dropped 10%.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:12) The Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on oil prices
• (1:58) Why Cimic Group's (ASX:CIM) share price jumped 35%
• (3:11) Life360 (ASX:360) falling 29% after releasing its result
• (3:47) The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients
• (4:16) Bell Potter's stock upgrades and downgrades this week
• (5:20) Three economic news releases to watch

The Aussie share market managed to advance 0.6% yesterday. Nine of the eleven industry sectors posted gains, with the tech sector advancing the most. On the flip side, the real estate sector and utilities sector posted small losses. 

On the ASX200 leaderboard, HUB24 (ASX:HUB) lifted nearly 10% off the back of its solid half-year results. The investment advice company experienced a record inflow of funds during the half, and an increase of 80% in its group underlying EBITDA. Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating on HUB and stated that the company is now its preferred exposure among wealth platforms. And a few tech stocks performed well, including Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR), as well as Life360 (ASX:360) and Zip (ASX:Z1P), who are both set to report today. Meanwhile, Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP) was the worst performer, plummeting 14% after its half-year results showed that its underlying net profit had plunged 5.3% to $91.3 million. This was short of Bell Potter’s and consensus’ expectations of $96m. Bell Potter have retained its HOLD rating with a 27% reduction in its price target to $95. 

The most traded stocks by Bell Direct clients yesterday included AVZ Minerals (ASX:AVZ), BrainChip (ASX:BRN) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL). 

In the US, the S&P500 closed lower for the fourth straight session, the Dow was down over 400 points and the Nasdaq declined more than 2% with the market is struggling to find direction given the Russia-Ukraine tensions. 

In line with the negative session over on Wall Street, the futures are suggesting the Aussie share market will open 1.3% lower this morning. 

What to watch today: 

• In commodities, the oil price is currently up, trading around US$92 a barrel. The gold price is up about 0.6% to US$1,907 an ounce. The palladium price is up 5%, so keep watch of ASX stocks like Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) and Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR). And the seaborne iron ore price is trading around US$143 a tonne. 
• Reporting season: 
  • Firstly, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) released its results after market close yesterday, announcing a record financial result and total dividend of US247cps. So keep watch of RIO when the market opens.
  • We’ll also hear from several travel stocks, including Qantas (ASX:QAN), Flight Centre (ASX:FLT) and Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIZ). 
  • Tech stocks like Zip Co (ASX:Z1P), Appen (ASX:APX), Altium (ASX:ALU) and Life360 (ASX:360) are also set to report, as well as Blackmores (ASX:BKL) and Iluka Resources (ASX:ILU).
• Bell Potter expects Appen (ASX:APX) to deliver NPAT of US$41m, while consensus is expecting $US39.6m. 
• Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) is holding its AGM today. 
• There are a several companies going ex-dividend today also, including BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Challenger (ASX:CGF), OZ Minerals (ASX:OZL), Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC) and Woodside Petroleum (ASX:WPL).

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter have maintained its BUY rating on Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN) with a price target of $1.65. Bell Potter noted that the speed of CRN’s balance sheet repair has been remarkable and its strong cash generation at record met coal prices will likely hold up until at least mid-2022. 
• Trading Central has a bullish signal on Steadfast Group (ASX:SDF), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $4.92 to the range of $5.28 - $5.36 in the next 19 days according to standard principals of technical analysis.

• Australian shares are expected to rise. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.28% lift at the open this morning. 
• The oil price is trading at US$92, after jumping more than 4% to an over 7-year high, on worries of the possibility of supply disruptions as tensions escalate in Europe. 
• The gold price reached its highest level in nearly 9-months, while the seaborne iron ore price is higher at US$143 a tonne. 
• Some companies that are reporting today include APA Group (ASX:APA), Domino’s Pizza (ASX:DMP), WiseTech (ASX:WTC), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), St Barbara (ASX:SBM) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW). 
• Stocks going ex-dividend today include AGL Energy (ASX:AGL), Codan (ASX:CDA), JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH), Magellan Financial Group (ASX:MFG), and Netwealth Group (ASX:NWL). Remember this often sees shares fall as investors take their profits. 

• Bell Potter have a Speculative Buy rating on Cluey (ASX:CLU). Cluey is an education technology company, providing personalised online tutoring and educational services for school students. The company delivered a strong half-year report with metrics broadly in-line with Bell Potter’s forecasts. Bell Potter have a $1.50 valuation on the CLU. The stock last closed at $1.00, implying 50% share price growth in a year. 
• Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Woolworths (ASX:WOW), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $35.20 to the range of $36.60 to $36.90, over 20 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. Woolworths is also set to report its half year earnings today. Bell Potter expect NPAT of $808.2m.