Between the Bells

Overnight US tech stocks marched forward with the Nasdaq gaining 1.2% while the broader S&P500 followed up 0.7%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year bond yield fell back to 1.695%. Banks continued to fall off their recent highs, after the Fed decided banks should be holding more capital now.

What to watch today:

1. Today is the one year anniversary of the COVID-19 bottom. Since then the market has gained 48%. Fundamentals and technicals suggest that the market will continue to rise over the long term.
2. Today the focus will again be on two key areas – rebound tech stocks and company news as there is no economic news to go by. 
3. The oil price attempted to stabilise, lifting  0.1%
4. Copper stocks should have a good day after copper rose 0.7% 
5. Yesterday, the most traded stocks on our active trader desk, Bell Direct Advantage were: Freedom Foods (ASX:FNP) which fell 83%, Oneview Healthcare (ASX:ONE) which gained 9%, and 88 Energy (ASX:88E) which rose 35%. 

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter initiated coverage of EROAD (ASX:ERD) as a BUY with a bullish $4.87 target
• Citi increased Beach Energy’s (ASX:BPT) price target to $1.81, but maintained the stock as a hold
• Praemium (ASX:PPS), Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (ASX:BEN) and Washington H. Soul Pattinson (ASX:SOL) are all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central. 

The Aussie market is expected to have a soggy start the week, with the futures down 0.2%. 

In the US, Tech stocks came back in favour while blue chip stocks were sold down. Investors took profits from banks following the US Central Bank deciding not to extend a leverage ratio for banks. 

What to watch today  

• A quiet week economically: manufacturing data and services sector data out for March on Wednesday.
• Following the US Tech rally: keep an eye on Afterpay (ASX:APT) & Zip (ASX:Z1P). They’re in downtrends but small cap IOU (ASX:IOU) added the Tech index from today – is breaking out. Also in the larger caps, it looks like Xero (ASX:XRO) looks like it’s attempting to break out. 
• The vaccine rollout - 6 million Aussies will eligible for the jab from today, 1,000 GP clinics will offer the vaccine. 
• The TGA approved AstraZeneca’s vaccine to be produced by CSL. So keep your eyes on CSL (ASX:CSL) even though they are in a downtrend
• Distressed Crown Resorts (ASX:CWN) received an $8 billion takeover offer valuing its shares at $11.85 a piece. On Friday CWN closed at $9.86. So now there’s a line-up of retail traders rushing to buy the stock now. 
• Separately, commodity stocks will be back in focus. The Oil price jumped 2% to $61.42. Gold and Silver up 0.5%. While Iron Ore continues to head south. 

Trading ideas:

• Nickel company Western Areas Ltd (ASX:WSA) was moved from a Hold to a Buy with a $2.45 target. 
• Bell Potter initiated coverage of gas supplier Central Petroleum Ltd (ASX:CTP) with a $0.23 target.
• People Infrastructure (ASX:PPE), Hearts & Minds Investments (ASX:HM1) and Teaminvest Private Ltd (ASX:TIP) are all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central. 

 More positive economic recovery news hit the headlines this week, as 90,000 Australians gained jobs, and interest rates were pledged to keep at their record low. But, with China moving towards a greener future, positive news wasn't flowing to the mining sector...

In this week’s wrap, Jessica covers:

• (0:10) The economic pickup: employment back at pre-COVID levels
• (1:10) The Mining sector pull-back: why FMG & MIN could be hurt the most
• (2:25) Collins Foods (ASX:CKF) rallying after a fund manager buys a major stake in the KFC, Taco Bell chain
• (3:17) The All Ords best performers this week
• (3:47) The three most traded stocks across Bell Direct
• (5:10) Stocks to be added to the ASX200, the ASX300 and the All Ords

US Economic recovery stocks fell off their all-time high podium overnight as Bond yields spiked again. The US 10 year bond hit a yield of 1.7%, while the 30-year bond rate topped 2.5%. Bonds now offer a better yield than the average US Tech stocks, which pay an average 1.5% yield.  

This is why we’ve seen the rotation out of US an Aussie tech stocks, and into companies with stronger balance sheets that and pay dividends.

What to watch today: 

• The market is expected to pull back 0.6% on Friday and end lower across the week, marking the first fall in three weeks.
• Oil stocks are likely to see heavy profit taking today after the sector’s gained 63% in a year –
• Other Commodity stocks might be a shining light; Platinum, gold, silver and iron
• Keep an eye on some of the most traded stocks from yesterday. For our active trader desk, Bell Direct Advantage they were: Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA), Integral Diagnostics (ASX:IDX) and 88 Energy (ASX:88E).

Trading ideas: 

• Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) was given an upgrade by Bell Potter as Speculative BUY with new $6.35 target. 
• Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) was upgraded by Citi with a new $3.10 target but dubbed a high risk HOLD. Galaxy is now operating back at fully capacity to meet lithium demand, and is producing what lower grade spodumene that customers are willing to accept.
• Lastly –Red River Resources (ASX:RVR), Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), and Resimac Group (ASX:RMC) could be worth considering, as they’re giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central. 

The world breathed a huge sigh of relief overnight as the US Fed announced it won’t be hiking interest rates until at least 2023. So there was a flood of confidence and investors returned to economic comeback kids.

What to watch today: 

• The market is expected to trade 0.2% lower today - ahead of release of employment data. 
• Unemployment data is out at 11:30am. The rate is tipped to have dropped to 6.3% in Feb from 6.4% as 29,100 jobs are expected to have been added. 
• Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), the biggest bank in Australia is joining the BNPL party in Australia to take market share from Afterpay (ASX:APT) and Zip (ASX:Z1P).
• Commodity screens were mostly green overnight. Gold, Silver and Copper rose almost 1% or more. Oil retreated. 
• Keep an eye on some of the most traded stocks from yesterday for our active trader desk, Bell Direct Advantage they were: Cannindah Resources (ASX:CAE), Renascor Resources (ASX:RNU) and IOU Pay (ASX:IOU).

Trading ideas:

• With people returning to the shops and employment improving, Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (ASX:API) was upgraded by Bell Potter as a Buy with a new $1.47 target. API’s share chart looks bullish too, from a technical perspective (with the 15 day average about to overtake the 30 day average). 
• America Pacific Borates (ASX:ABR), Eclipx Group (ASX:ECX) and Pental (ASX:PTL) are all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central. 

US stocks treaded water overnight, with trading cautious ahead of the US Central bank’s decision on interest rates. Although US rates are expected to remain on hold at 0.25%, the world is awaiting to see what the Fed will say about inflationary concerns, which have been pushing up safe haven bonds, to a year high. 

What to watch today

• Yesterday the local share market gained 0.8%, with most sectors making gains yesterday but Mining and Energy.
• Today, the Aussie share market could lose half of yesterday’s gain and fall 0.4% - if the futures are correct. 
• Keep an eye on tech stocks: Afterpay (ASX:APT) just launched a new sales campaign. 
• Auckland Airport (ASX:AIZ) announced traffic numbers for February, with traffic falling 71%. AIZ traders think the worst is over and its shares are in a technical share price break out suggesting its stock could grow further following 6 days of gains. 
• The small frequently traded lithium company Lake Resources (ASX:LKE) announced it has the ability to potentially increase lithium production.
• Separately commodity screens were quiet: Gold, Silver, Copper and Oil didn’t move much from the prior session.
• The iron ore spot price sank almost 6% seeing BHP and Rio in New York fall. So you might have your day to top up iron stocks today. 

Trading ideas:

• After PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH) rose about 4% yesterday, Bell Potter reiterated the stock as a Speculative Buy with a $20.55 target. 
• De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG), Sovereign Metals (ASX:SVM) and King Island Scheelite (ASX:KIS) are giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central

The futures are hinting that the Aussie market will rise 0.4% at the open. All eyes will be on travel and tourism stocks, with bookings on rise ahead of Easter, while also being supported by the governments incentive.

What to watch today  

• Expect some caution as AstraZeneca’s vaccine was paused for use in France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands over blood clot concerns. This is important to watch as Australia has purchased 54 million doses. 
• Investors will be watching the RBA Minutes to hear what the RBA says as to why the Aussie bond yields hit a 2-year high, as well as house price index data. 
• Separately except commodity stocks to be mixed today as Gold rose 0.6% to US$1,730, Silver rose 1.6%, Copper trades flat, Lithium stocks rose in the US overnight, while the Oil price fell 0.5% to US$65.29. 
• The iron ore fines price, the most traded, staged a rebound while the iron ore spot price rose 2.7%. 

Trading ideas:

• Following Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (ASX:VTH) hitting a new record high yesterday, Bell Potter restated the stock as a Hold on the basis of its strong share price growth.  
• Keep an eye on Woodside (ASX:WPL), a Macquarie, Credit Suisse and UBS Buy stock, benefitting from higher oil prices.
• Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), Shaver Shop (ASX:SSG) and Reece (ASX:REH) are all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central.

The futures are suggesting a flat start to the week – as Australian bond yields rose back to two-year highs again. So this week, we’ll likely see companies with higher debt like tech stocks sold down, and investors continuing to back banks, and airlines. 

What to watch today:

• RBA Governor’s speech 
• New home sales data out at 11:30am. That will keep building companies on the pulse – like CSR (ASX:CSR), Boral (ASX:BLD) and Brickworks (ASX:BKW). 
• China’s industrial production data for Feb. Keep an eye on rare earths stocks like Lynas (ASX:LYC), Vital Metals (ASX:VML), Northern Minerals (ASX:NTU) and RareX (ASX:REE).
• S&P/ASX 200 and 300 changes for 22 March announced on Friday. Why is this important? Stocks added to the indices will now be compulsorily acquired by ETF providers and those that were removed will be sold. 
• Keep a watch on iron ore stocks as the iron ore fines price, the most traded, fell almost 2% taking iron ore to a 15-day low. With China cracking down on steel production to cut pollution.  

Trading ideas:

• Bell Potter reiterated Cyclopharm (ASX:CYC) as a Buy with a $3.79 target. CYC will be added to the All Ordinaries (the top 500) index. 
• Noxopharm (ASX:NOX), Ava Risk Group (ASX:AVA) and Navigator Global Investment (ASX:NGI) are all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central.

With business confidence at an 11-year high and consumer confidence tailing on a similar trajectory, it's safe to say the economic recovery is in full swing. However, with technical bearish signals now rearing their head, could it be short lived? 
 
 In this week’s wrap, Jessica covers:

• (0:21) Consumer confidence just shy of its 10-year peak
• (1:00) Tech stocks taking a hit: Zip (ASX:Z1P) down 12% (Mon-Thu)
• (1:57) Three travel stocks soaring after a government announcement
• (2:26) Why it could be worth keeping some cash at bay
• (3:30) How to find outperforming stocks 

The futures are suggesting the market will end the week on a positive note, up 0.5%, with the AUD continuing to rise against the greenback.

US stocks climbed to record highs on Thursday as the comeback in tech shares resumed, while the signing of the $1.9 billion-dollar COVID-19 stimulus deal gave sentiment a further boost. 

In other news, Johnson & Johnson’s one dose COVID-19 vaccine has been authorised by the European Union. 

What to watch today:

• It’s worth keeping an eye on Aussie tech shares like Afterpay (ASX:APT) and Appen (ASX:APX) given the tech rally overnight. 
• Travel and tourism stocks will continue to be in focus as the Federal Government added another 2 regional locations to its half price airfares scheme. This takes the total number of locations to 15. 
• Oil prices stormed higher overnight. The WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil price were both up about 2%. Energy producers like Santos (ASX:STO) and Woodside (ASX:WPL) could finish the week strongly. 
• Iron ore lifted 1.7%, gold and silver both fell about 0.2%, and copper rose 2.5%. 
• Finally, keep an eye on some of the most traded stocks from yesterday for our active trader desk. They were Pureprofile (ASX:PPL), Ioupay (ASX:IOU) and Digital Wine Ventures (ASX:DW8).   

Trading ideas:

• Acrow Formwork & Construction Services (ASX:ACF) remains a Bell Potter Buy with an increased price target of $0.44. 
• Bell Potter reiterated its Buy recommendation on Imdex (ASX:IMD) with an unchanged price target of $2.20. IMD was able to grow margins and earnings despite a benign exploration environment in H12021. 
• Separately – Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), Bingo Industries (ASX:BIN) and James Hardie (ASX:JHX) could be worth a look as they’re all giving off bullish charting signals according to Trading Central.