Between the Bells

Wall Street closed in record territory again on Friday to close out a very strong November month for equities with the Dow Jones rising 0.42% to a record 44,910.65, the S&P 500 added 0.56% to a record 6032.38, and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.83%. Chip stocks rallied on Friday on reports that the Biden administration was considering additional barriers on the sale of semiconductor equipment to China that weren’t as strong as previously expected.

In Europe on Friday, markets closed higher on the back of the latest eurozone inflation data being released indicating a rise to 2.3% in November from 2% in November, which is above the ECB’s target of 2% but in line with economists’ expectations. The STOXX 600 rose 0.96% on Friday, Germany’s DAX rose 1.04%, the French CAC added 0.78% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.07%. 
Across the Asia region on Friday, markets closed in the mostly red led by South Korea’s Kospi index falling 1.95%, following the release of key economic data in the region. South Korea’s decline was due to industrial production growth falling 0.3% in October compared to September, while Tokyo’s inflation rate rose to 2.6% up from 1.8% in October, which led the Nikkei to fall 0.4% on the rise in inflation. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.2% on Friday while China’s CSI index ended the day up 1.14%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX closed out the last trading session for November 0.1% lower as a broad sell off led by REIT stocks offset a strong 0.82% rally for the materials sector. Despite the weakness on Friday, the key index posted 2 record closes in the final trading week of November.

Select Harvest shares fell 5.4% on Friday despite the almond producer reporting a return to profitability through posting NPAT of $1.5m which is a significant turn around from the $114.7m net loss posted in FY23.

And embattled casino operator Star Entertainment hit a record low share price on Friday of 18cps following a rating downgrade from Macquarie. The broker downgraded Star to an underperform rating after the company reported an earnings loss of $27m in the first four months of the new financial year.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open the first trading day of December up 0.25% on the back of Wall Street’s record close on Friday and ahead of learning how strong the Black Friday sales were on the Friday just gone.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 0.43% lower at US$68.63/barrel, gold is up 0.72% at US$2657.79/ounce and iron ore is up 0.26% at US$102.44/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has weakened to buy US$0.65, 97.58 Japanese Yen, 51.16 British Pence, and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on QBE Insurance (ASX:QBE) from a buy to a hold and have raised the 12-month price target on the insurance group from $19.05 to $19.20 following the release of a Q3 trading update including gross written premiums up just 2%, premium rate increases across the group reduced from over 8% a year ago to 4.9% at Q3, and full year guidance unchanged. The reason for the downgrade to a hold is the benign Q3 update against shares performing well over the recent period.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Myer (ASX:MYR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.06 to the range of $1.20 to $1.24 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

The US economy showed strength this week, with robust business activity and easing inflation. However, the global economic outlook was less positive, with the Eurozone and UK experiencing renewed downturns. Asia-Pacific economies also released key economic indicators and monetary policy decisions.

In this week’s wrap, Sophia covers:

• (0:16): how the US economy demonstrated resilience 
• (1:19): where the Eurozone and UK are facing downturns 
• (2:02): how the ASX200 performed this week so far 
• (2:21): the best and worst performing stocks this week
• (2:36): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients 
• (3:03): economic news items to watch out for.

Wall St closed lower overnight as the S&P 500 snapped a 7-day winning streak, down 0.38%. The Dow Jones lost 0.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.6% as Nvidia lowered by 2%.

Other tech companies such as Dell and HP also lost over 11% following weak earnings guidance.US inflation data was also released overnight with core PCE rising by 0.3% in October, which was in line with the forecast and consensus.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as investor concerns rose over the impact Donald Trump may have on tariffs. The STOXX600 fell 0.2%, with the majority of sectors closing lower. Germany’s DAX lost 0.18%, the French CAC closed 0.72% in the red, whilst over in the UK, the FTSE100 gained 0.2%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 rose by 0.57% with all major sectors closing in the green. Gains were led by the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors which rose by 1.03% and 0.87% respectively.

Data for GDP growth rate in Q3 was released yesterday, coming in at 2.8%, which was in line with the forecast and consensus, however fell short of the pervious result of 3%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.26% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.07% lower at 68 US dollars and 71 cents a barrel, gold is trading 0.18% higher at 2636 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.05% higher at 102 US dollars and 6 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Elders Ltd (ASX:ELD) and has a current share price of $7.58. The 12-month price target of $9.45 indicates a share price growth of 24.7%, hence the buy rating is maintained. 
• Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Premier Investments (ASX:PMV), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $35.23 to the range of $40.25-$41.50, on a pattern formed over 84 days, according to the standard pricniples of technical analysis.

Over in the US on Tuesday markets rallied with the S&P500 and Dow hitting fresh record highs as investors assessed the threat of new tariffs from incoming President-elect, Donald Trump. Trump called for a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada on Monday as well as an additional 10% tax on Chinese goods on top of the 20% already promised on goods from the region, in a bid to stimulate domestic demand within the US economy. Despite the potential impact of the tariffs, the Dow Jones rose 0.3% to a fresh record 44,860.31 points, the S&P500 also rose 0.57% to a fresh record 6,021.63 points and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.63%.

Across the European markets overnight, markets closed lower as investors in the region digested the implications of Trump’s plans to hike tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, Germany’s DAX lost 0.56%, the French CAC fell 0.87%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.4%.

In Asia on Tuesday, markets closed mixed on the back of key economic data being released in the region. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.87% amid a slowdown in service PPI to a rise of 2.9% YoY from 2.8% in the previous month, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.05%, China’s CSI index added 0.21% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day down 0.55%.

The local market closed 0.7% lower on Tuesday dropping from Monday’s fresh record close, as a 3% slide among energy stocks weighed on the key index, despite consumer staples stocks rising over 1% and the tech sector rebounding. The major cause of the sell-off yesterday was due to investor fears of increased tariffs to come from President-elect Donald Trump when he re-enters office.

The fall in energy stocks follows investor hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that would possibly lead to stability in the price of oil.

Despite investor fears of rising tariff to be implemented when Trump comes into office, investors still found an opportunity in the local market through buying into companies that generate significant revenues from operating in the world’s largest economy. 

Reece shares rose 2.2% as the plumbing giant operates in the US, while BlueScope Steel ended the day up 5.6% as investors see opportunity in the earnings potential for these two operators in the North American region.

Webjet shares fell 2% on Tuesday after the travel agent released its first results since demerging from Web Travel Group. For the first half, bookings fell 8%, total transaction value declined 8% to $752m, revenue dropped 1% and NPAT rose just 2.2%, all of which reflected a challenging macroeconomic environment for the online travel agent.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the midweek trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.45% on the back of Wall Street’s slight rally overnight.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.74% lower at US$68.43/barrel, gold is up 0.61% at US$2626/ounce and iron ore is up 0.06% at US$102.01/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has slightly weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.65, 98.95 Japanese Yen, 51.59 British Pence and NZ$1.11.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) and maintain a hold rating on the online multi-brand retailer following the release of a trading update for the first 4-months of FY25 including gross sales up 0.4% on the PCP and adjusted EBITDA up 55% on the PCP, with topline growth tracking inline with Bell Potter estimates despite challenging market conditions.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 26-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $4.79 to the range of $5 to 5.06 according to standard principles

Wall St closed higher overnight as Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent as the new Treasury secretary. The Dow Jones closed at new record highs, up 1%, the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% and the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 0.27%.

Investors were happy that Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group was nominated by Trump for the Treasury secretary role and believe that he will be supportive of the equity market and mitigate some of Trump’s protectionist policies such as his stance on taxing imports. 

Over in Europe, markets closed higher as global markets rise. The STOXX600 closed 0.14% in the green with the majority of sectors closing in the green. Gains were led by mining stocks which added 1.21%, whilst oil and gas stocks fell 1%. Germany’s DAX rose by 0.43%, the French CAC gained 0.03% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 rose by 0.36%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 0.28% in the green with most major sectors closing in the green. Gains were led by the real estate and health sectors which jumped 1.57% and 1.34% respectively. This was offset by the utilities sector which fell by over 1%.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures predicting a rise of 0.21% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 3.1% lower at 69 US dollars and 3 cents a barrel following reports that Israel and Hezbollah could be close to a cease-fire within the coming days. 
  • Gold is trading 3.29% lower at 2626 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.07% lower at 101 US dollars and 95 cents a tonne.

Trading Idea:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on IPD Group (ASX:IPG) and has a current share price of $3.69. The 12-month price target of $5.30 indicates a share price growth of 43.6%, hence the buy rating is maintained.

Wall St closed higher on Friday with the Dow hitting a fresh record as investors shift from the high growth tech sectors to areas of the market that are more economically sensitive. The Dow Jones rose 0.97% on Friday to a record 44,296.51 points, the S&P500 added 0.35% and the Nasdaq ended the day up 0.16%.

Over in Europe on Friday markets closed higher as investors assessed weaker-than-expected economic data which builds the case for central bank rate cuts in the region. The STOXX 600 rose 1.2%, Germany’s DAX added 0.92% despite the country’s business activity falling for a 5th consecutive month, the French CAC rose 0.6% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 1.4%.

Over in the Asia market on Friday, markets in the region closed mostly higher as investors await clarity on how US-imposed tariffs will impact markets in the region when Trump steps into office in the US. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.7%, South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.83%, while China’s CSI index fell 3.1%.

Locally on Friday the ASX 200 rose 0.85% to a fresh record 8393.8 points with all but the tech sector ending the day in the green led by energy stocks rising 2.3%.

A2 Milk Company rose over 13% on Friday after the milk and infant milk formula company announced a revenue guidance upgrade and that the company has established a dividend policy.

WiseTech Global fell 12.4% on Friday after the company downgraded revenue and earnings guidance for FY25 at its AGM amid recent media distractions delaying the launch of key products in the company.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Monday’s trading session on the ASX the SPI futures are anticipating the local market to open the new trading week up 0.62% extending on the record close on Friday.
• On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 1.54% higher at US$71.18/barrel, gold is up 1.75% at US$2715.85/ounce and iron ore is down 0.07% at US$101.95/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar is buying 65.16 US cents, 100.70 Japanese Yen, 51.85 British Pence, and 1 New Zealand dollar and 12 cents.

Trading Idea:

• Bell Potter has increased the rating on Lovisa (ASX:LOV) from a hold to a buy and have slightly lowered the 12-month price target on the fashion jewellery brand from $31/share to $30/share following the FY25 trading update out of the company for the first 20 weeks of the new financial year including total sales up 10% which is lower than the PCP, and global comparable sales were down on the PCP. New stores opened hit 40 though which is tracking in-line with Bell Potter expectations.

Wall St closed mixed overnight as investors await AI giant Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report. The Dow Jones gained 0.32%, the S&P500 closed flat and the tech heavy Nasdaq fell 0.11%.

Investors are awaiting results from Nvidia whose results could hold more significance than some key economic reports given the chipmakers $3.6 trillion market capitalization which could also impact markets for the rest of the week.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as investors continue to analyse the ongoing geopolitical tensions. The STOXX600 closed 0.01% lower with half of the major sectors closing in the red. Germany’s DAX fell 0.29%, the French CAC lost 0.43% and over in the UK, the FTSE100 dropped 0.17% by the end of Wednesday’s trading session.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell by 0.57% with the majority of sectors closing in negative territory. Losses were led by the communication services and industrial sectors which dropped 1.53% and 1.31% respectively. This was offset by the health sector which gained 0.27% by the closing bell.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.13% at market open this morning.
• On the commodity front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.2% lower at 69 US dollars and 10 cents a barrel as investors weigh the current geopolitical tensions against growing crude oil supply in the US. 
  • Gold is trading half a percent higher at 2648 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.13% higher at 101 US dollars and 89 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on PWR Holdings (ASX:PWR and has a 12 month price target of $8. With a current share price of $6.85, this represents a share price growth of 16.8%, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on KMD Brands (ASX:KMD), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $0.39 to the range of $0.48-$0.50, on a pattern formed over 30 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday despite rising geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The Nasdaq led the gains with a rise of 1% as Nvidia popped 5% ahead of the release of its earnings results out on Wednesday. The S&P500 ended Tuesday’s session up 0.5% and the Dow Jones reversed early session losses to close 0.1% higher.

Walmart shares are up over 5% after the US retail corporation posted better-than-expected earnings and hiked its outlook on strong discretionary spend in the US. While Lowe’s, the home improvement retailer, fell over 3% on Tuesday after saying it expects sales to decline in 2024.

In Europe overnight, markets closed lower in the region as investors assess a spike in geopolitical tensions centred on Russia. The STOXX 600 fell 0.45%, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC each lost 0.67%, while in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.13%.

Across the Asia region on Tuesday, markets closed higher on the back of Wall Street’s rally on Monday. China’s CSI index rose 0.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.51% and South Korea’s Kospi index ended the day up 0.12%.

The local market extended its green run into Tuesday with the key index gaining 0.9% to a fresh record high at close of 8374 points driven by the Nasdaq on Wall St on Monday, optimism of greater stimulus out of China and gold miners rebounding on a rise in the price of the precious commodity.

The RBA meeting minutes released yesterday painted clear picture about where Australia’s central bank is focused in regard to inflation drivers before even considering interest rate cuts. The minutes outlined that consumer spending, labour productivity and the outlook for the global economy remain uncertain and are the key drivers of inflation and the inflationary outlook impacting the RBA’s decision. The minutes also outlined that underlying inflation is not expected to return to the sustainable target until 2026.

Stock specifically yesterday TechnologyOne shares did most of the heavy lifting for our tech rally with a gain of 10.1% after the SaaS company posted a 15% increase in full-year net profit to $118m while revenues rose 17%.

On the retail front KMD Brands fell over 3.8% on Tuesday after the Rip Curl parent company warned of cautious consumer sentiment after posting a decline in quarterly sales. Retailers have begun offering black Friday sales early across the board in a bid to reduce inventory levels.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of the midweek trading session on the ASX the SPI futures are expecting the local market to open the day down 0.12%, easing from yesterday’s record close.
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 0.23% higher at US$69.36/barrel, gold is up 0.65% at US$2629/ounce and iron ore is up 0.13% at US$101.76/tonne.
• The Aussie dollar has strengthened against the greenback overnight to buy US$0.65, 100.83 Japanese Yen, 51.38 British Pence, and NZ$1.10.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has increased the 12-month price target on Gentrack Group (ASX:GTK) from $10.90 to $11.50 per share and maintain a buy rating on the specialist billing and CRM solutions provider to managed services. The target price increase is ahead of GTK’s full year results being released on 26th November and the analysts’ bullish outlook on the company’s ability to maintain customer win momentum.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Centuria Capital (ASX:CNI) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 36-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $1.89 to the range of $2.15 to $2.23 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street returned to mostly rally mode on Monday with the Nasdaq leading the gains, posting a rise of 0.6% at the closing bell while the S&P500 added 0.4% but the Dow Jones ended the day down 0.1%. Tesla shares popped 5.6% on Monday amid reports President Elect Donald Trump’s team is working on ways to ease self-driving regulations, while Nvidia shares lost 1.3% as investors await earnings out of the semiconductor giant. 

Across Europe overnight, markets closed mixed in the region as investors await key inflation data out later this week from the Eurozone and the UK, while a slew of CPI readings are also due out this week across Europe. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1% on Monday, Germany’s DAX closed flat, the French CAC rose 0.12% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.6%.Over in the Asia region, markets closed mixed to start the week as investors await key economic data out in the region this week including Japan’s inflation data and China’s loan prime rate. 

China’s CSI index ended Monday’s session down almost half a percent, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.09%, South Korea’s Kospi index gained 2.16% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.82%.The local market started the week in positive territory with a 0.2% gain as investors hope further stimulus out of Beijing will increase demand for Aussie exports especially in the mining space. Consumer staples and utilities stocks led the rally on Monday with gains of 1.95% and 1.82% respectively, while health and tech, the two growth sectors, ended Monday’s session with losses of 0.88% and 0.79% respectively.

Russia’s most recent move to cut exports of enriched uranium to the U.S. boosted local uranium miners on Monday, with Boss Energy rising 7.3% while Paladin Energy rose over 5%.Gold miners also felt some relief yesterday as the post-election USD rally eased and the gold price rebounded to trade 1.2% higher at US$2592.95/ounce. Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining and Gold Road Resources each ended Monday’s session in the green.

What to watch today:

• Ahead of Tuesday’s trading session on the ASX the SPI futures are anticipating the local market to open the new trading day 0.11% higher. We may see investors react to the release of the RBA’s latest meeting minutes out today in Australia as investors will digest the RBA’s remarks and determine if rate cuts are on the horizon. 
• On the commodities front this morning, oil is trading 2.63% higher at US$68.79/barrel, gold is up 1.87% at US$2610/ounce and iron ore is down 0.6% at US$101.63/tonne. 
• The Aussie dollar has further weakened against the greenback to buy US$0.64, 100.61 Japanese Yen, 51.13 British Pence and NZ$1.10. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Alfabs Australia (ASX:AAL) with a buy rating and a price target of 40cps as Bell Potter’s analyst sees this is a good buying opportunity for the diversified Australian industrial services group given it is relatively undervalued with an attractive NPAT and compound annual growth rate outlook of 21.8% p.a. over FY24-27.
• Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on IRESS (ASX:IRE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 48-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $9.48 to the range of $8.95 to $9.05 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed lower on Friday as investors maintain concerns over US interest rates. The Dow Jones fell 0.7%, the S&P500 lost 1.32% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.24%.

Investor concerns for US interest rates rose, when Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, commented that the central bank “wasn’t in a hurry” to cut interest rates.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower, recording a fourth consecutive weekly decline. The STOXX600 fell 0.76% with media stocks dropping 3%, whilst mining stocks gained 1.3%. Germany’s DAX lost 0.27%, the French CAC dropped 0.58% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended Fridays trading session down 0.09%.

Locally on Friday, the ASX200 gained 0.74% with all but one major sector closing in the green. Gains were led by the utilities and financial sectors which rallied 2.39% and 1.46% respectively. This was offset by the health sector which lost 1.76%.

 What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.31% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 2.45% lower at 67 US dollars and 2 cents a barrel as OPEC cut its 2025 demand outlooks. 
  • Gold is trading 0.17% lower at 2562 US dollars an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.58% lower at 101 US dollars and 63 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Aspen Group (ASX:APZ) and has a current share price of $2.40. Bell Potter’s 12-month price target of $2.75 shows a 14.6% share price growth over a year, hence the buy rating is maintained.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Helloworld Travel (ASX:HLO) , indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $2.04 to the range of $2.25-$2.31, on a pattern formed over 49 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.