Between the Bells

Wall St closed higher overnight as the major averages rise to new record levels. The Dow Jones rallied 0.68%, the S&P500 closed 0.32% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the trading session 0.2% in the green.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher overnight as European stocks hit record highs following monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank. The STOXX600 ended the trading session up 0.9% with nearly all sectors finishing in the green with technology stocks up 3.2%, whilst utilities fell 0.39%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed 1.12% higher with the majority of sectors finishing in the green. Gains were led by the financial and consumer discretionary sectors which rose 1.74% and 1.5% respectively. This was slightly offset by the utilities sector which fell 0.59% by market close.

Australian unemployment data was also released yesterday, down to 3.7% from the previous result of 4.1% and the consensus of 4%.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.18% at market open this morning.
• On the commodity front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.67% lower at US$80.72 a barrel as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries stoke supply concerns. 
  • Gold is trading down 0.23% to US$2180 an ounce as investors become confident central banks will ease monetary policies soon. 
  • And iron ore is trading flat at US$108.50 a tonne as hopes for a recovery in Chinese demand prevents a further sell off. 

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter has maintained a speculative buy rating on Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) with a current price per share of $3.00. The speculative buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter with them giving CU6 a valuation of $3.90 per share, implying a 30% share price growth in a year.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Bega Cheese (ASX:BGA), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $4.15 to the range of $4.60-$4.70, on a pattern formed over 17 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall Street rallied overnight, with all three major benchmarks notching all-time closing highs, after the Federal Reserve announced that there will be three rate cuts before the end of the year. This comes after the Fed held rates at a 23-year high. In this week’s policy meeting, rates were left unchanged however the announcement saw a market rally, with the Dow Jones rising 400 points or 1.03% to a record close, the S&P500 up 0.89% and the Nasdaq gaining 1.25%. Financial stocks and tech stocks advanced the most. 

Yesterday, the Australian market closed in the red with tech, utilities, and consumer staples down the most, while energy gained. 

What to watch today:

• Today however, our local market is set for a positive start following US equities overnight. The SPI futures are suggesting a 0.63% rise at the open this morning. 
• In commodities, 
  • Oil prices have dropped to around US$81.55 per barrel at the time of recording, dropping from over four-month highs touches on Tuesday, a sell-off as investors took profits from the strong run-up in oil prices.  Also, the stronger US dollar added pressure to oil prices, which makes it more expensive for buyers in other currencies, affecting demand. 
  • Gold on the other hand is trading in the green, currently around US$2,186 an ounce, following the Fed holding interest rates steady. 
  • And iron ore has advanced an impressive 3.8% to US$108.50, recovering earlier losses after hitting it’s lowest level since May 2023. 
• In economic data, the unemployment rate for February will be announced today at 11:30am AEDT, expected to drop from 4.1% to 4%, after January saw the highest unemployment rate in 2 years. 
• Also keep watch of the share price movements of the following companies, that are set to release their earnings reports today. These include Brickworks (ASX:BKW), Sigma Healthcare (ASX:SIG) and Washinton Soul Pattinson (ASX:SOL), while Webjet (ASX:WEB) will hold an investor briefing today. 
• And companies going ex-dividend today include Cochlear (ASX:COH), Pacific Smiles Group (ASX:PSQ), Spark New Zealand (ASX:SPK) and Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL). Remember this often sees share prices fall, as investors take their profits. 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on Smartpay Holdings (ASX:SMP), an independent full-service provider of payment solutions. SMP shares have traded down despite the positive merchant data and growth in digital payments. Bell Potter have increased their price target to $1.76 and at SMP’s current share price of $1.37 this implies 28.7% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG) indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $24.75 to the range of $29.00 to $30.00 over 17 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis. 

Wall St closed higher overnight as the Dow closed more than 300 points higher by market close. The S&P 500 rose over half a percent, the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the trading session up 0.39% and the Dow Jones rallied 0.83%.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher as investors look to the start of the US Fed’s two-day policy meeting. The STOXX600 closed 0.26% higher with autos stocks rising 1.2%, whilst food and beverage stocks fell half a percent. Germany’s DAX rose 0.31%, the French CAC jumped 0.65% and over in the UK the FTSE100 ended Tuesday’s trading session 0.2% higher.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 ended the day 0.36% higher with gains lead by the materials and energy sectors of 2.11% and 1.98% respectively. This was offset by the consumer staples sector which lost 0.84% by market close yesterday.

The RBA interest rate decision also came out yesterday, with it remaining at 4.35%, the same as its previous result.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.17% at market open this morning.
• On the commodity front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 0.46% higher at US$83.10 a barrel as Iraq announced plans to reduce its oil exports to 3.3 million barrels per day in order to comply with the OPEC+ quota. 
  • Gold is trading 0.12% lower at US$2157 an ounce, as investors await the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week. 
  • And iron ore is trading 1.95% higher at US$104.50 a tonne.

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC), despite slightly decreasing the 12-month price target to $1.50. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as NIC is trading on undemanding valuation multiples, offers a supportive dividend, has demonstrated its ability to make money through the nickel price cycle and is one of the worlds only listed nickel producer offering exposure across nickel products and markets.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH), indicating that the stock price may rise form the close of $0.80 to the range of $1.08-$1.14 on a pattern formed over 100 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher overnight as markets await the US Federal Reserve decision out later in the week. The Dow Jones climbed 0.2%, the S&P 500 closed 0.63% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the trading session 0.82% in the green.

In terms of US shares, Alphabet gained 4.6% after reports that Apple was in talks with Google to include the company’s Gemini AI in iPhones.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower as investors look ahead to the US Federal Reserve meeting. The STOXX 600 closed 0.1% lower with telecoms falling 1.4%, whilst autos rallied 0.9%. Germany’s DAX closed slightly lower, down 0.02%, the French CAC lost 0.2% and over in the UK the FTSE 100 fell 0.06%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed slightly higher, up 0.07% by market close. Gains were lead by the financial and materials sector which gained 0.56% and 0.25% respectively. This was offset by the real estate sector which lost 1.87%.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open marginally higher, up 0.04% at market open this morning.
• In terms of economic data today, the RBA interest rate decision will be released this afternoon with the forecast and consensus coming in at 4.35%, the same as its previous result.
• On the commodity front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 2.09% higher at US$82.73 a barrel, following lower amount of exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia as well as increased demand coming from the US and China. 
  • Gold is trading 0.18% higher at US$2159 an ounce as investors await policy meetings from major central banks such as the RBA and the Bank of England. 
  • And iron ore is trading 2.84% lower at US$102.50 cents a tonne as lower demand in China continues

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Chrysos Corporation (ASX:C79) and has a 12-month price target of $8.30. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as it is believed their disruptive PhotonAssay technology will command a significant foothold within the large gold assaying markets with current lease agreements with some of the largest gold miners and international laboratory businesses providing good near-term deployment visibility.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Nick Scali (ASX:NCK), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $14.50 to the range of $18.20-$18.90, on a pattern formed over 30 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Well, all three major US benchmarks closed lower last week, the second straight week of losses. This was off the back of inflation concerns which saw technology stocks come under pressure, ahead of the Fed’s next two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday. The Dow Jones closed 0.5% lower, the S&P500 down 0.6% and the Nasdaq down 0.96%.

European markets were also in the red, with investors treading carefully ahead of rate decisions this week by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. 

And last week the Australian share market declined 2.25% Monday to Friday, with all sectors in the red, apart from Utilities and Real Estate. The materials and financials industry sectors declined the most. 

What to watch today:

• Our local market is set to start the week lower this morning, with the SPI futures suggesting a 0.17% fall at the open. 
• In commodities, 
  • Oil has softened, trading at US$81 per barrel, so keep watch of energy stock today, such as Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) or Santos (ASX:STO). The price of oil still saw a weekly gain of more than 3.5%, amid strong US demand as well as an optimistic outlook for global oil consumption. 
  • Gold is trading lower, recording its first weekly decline in a month, ahead of the Fed’s policy decision this week. 
  • Iron ore has also declined, trading at US$105.50 per ton, the lowest in nearly seven months following dampened demand in China. 
  • And copper prices are influencing the Australian dollar greater than iron ore currently, advancing last week to its highest level in 11 months, after the top Chinese smelting facilities announced they’d reduce production at unprofitable facilities due to raw material shortages. 
• And two companies go ex-dividend today, that is, HUB 24 (ASX:HUB) and Chorus (ASX:CNU). 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating on global financial services firm Perpetual (ASX:PPT). They have lowered their price target from $27.33 to $27.15 and at PPT’s current share price of $24.39, this implies 11.3% share price growth in a year. 
• And Bell Potter also have a Buy rating on Technology One (ASX:TNE), ahead of the company’s H1 FY24 results with a focus on the Net Revenue Retention. Bell Potter have increased their price target from $17.25 to $18.50, and at TNE’s current share price $16.30, this implies 13.5% share price growth in a year. 

The spotlight shone brightly on the US economy as investors eagerly awaited the release of key economic data this week. The data would shed light on the nation's battle with inflation, a crucial factor influencing both the health of the world's largest economy and the potential actions of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates in the coming months.

In this week’s wrap, Grady covers:  

• (0:09): why investors were fixated on the US this week
• (0:53): conflicting signals between US retail sales and PPI data
• (2:18): investor optimism despite slight rise in US inflation
• (2:34): the mining giant sell-off locally as iron ore slumped
• (3:08): a glimpse of recovery amidst challenges for Myer
• (5:06): the most traded stocks & ETFs by Bell Direct clients
• (5:35): economic data to watch next week.

Wall St closed lower overnight following the release of inflation data that came out higher than expectations. The Dow Jones fell 0.35%, the S&P500 lost 0.29% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day 0.3% in the red.

US producer price index for February came out overnight, showing a 0.6% rise month on month, double the consensus and forecast of 0.3%.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower following further inflation readings coming out of the US. The STOXX600 closed down 0.2% with media stocks ending the session 0.7% higher and mining stocks falling 1.4%. Germany’s DAX fell 0.11%, the FTSE100 fell 0.37% with the French CAC gaining 0.29%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 fell 0.20% by market close yesterday. Losses were lead by the financial and consumer discretionary sectors which lost 1.88% and 0.73% respectively. This was offset by the materials sector which rallied 1.85% by the end of the trading session.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open lower, with the SPI futures suggesting a fall of 0.73% at market open this morning.
• On the commodity front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading 1.72% higher to US$81.09 cents a barrel as the IEA increased its 2024 demand-growth estimation for crude oil to 1.3 million barrels from 1.2 million. 
  • Gold is trading lower just over half a percent at US$2162 an ounce as the US inflation reading overnight made investors question the Fed’s interest rate cuts. 
  • And iron ore is trading 3.15% lower at US$107.50 cents a tonne.

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter has initiated coverage on McMillan Shakespeare (ASX:MMS) and has a buy recommendation with a 12-month price target of $22.52. McMillan Shakespeare is a leading provider of employee benefits within remuneration packages and operated commercial fleets and disability support services. It has been initiated as a buy rating as MMS provides a unique exposure to a growing demand profile for renewable fuels and vehicle electrification on the ASX. Australia will need to achieve more than 50% of new EV sales by 2030 to meet current climate targets.
• And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal in Tourism Holdings (ASX:THL), indicating that the stock price may fall form the close of $3.10 to the range of $2.25-$2.40 on a pattern formed over 183 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

US markets closed mixed overnight, with the Dow Jones closing slightly higher, just 0.1% in the green, while the S&P500 closed 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq down 0.5%, as the information technology sector slipped 1.1% with Nividia, Meta and Apple shares all lower. 

The US consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. The monthly measure was in line with expectations while the 12-month reading was slightly higher.

European markets ended higher, following what was a mixed trading session, as investors considered the latest U.S. inflation data as well as U.K. gross domestic product. GDP increased 0.2% in line with forecasts.

What to watch today:

• The Australian share market is set to open higher this morning, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.28%. 
• In commodities, 
  • The price of oil is up 2.7% to US$79 per barrel after US data saw an unexpected decrease in crude stocks. 
  • Gold has advanced 0.8% after losing for than 1% in the previous session, amid US inflation data being released. 
  • And iron ore is also in the green, trading at US$111 per tonne, so keep watch of iron ore miners.
• And some companies set to go ex- dividend today include Breville Group Ltd (ASX: BRG), auto retailer Eagers Automotive (ASX: APE), poultry producer Inghams Group Ltd (ASX: ING), and telco TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPG). 

Trading Ideas:

• Bell potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating on Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) after the mining company accounted that it has executed a $550 million senior secured syndicated debt facility, funding its Kathleen Valley lithium project to first production. The Kathleen Valley project remains highly strategic in its stage of development, long mine life and location. And Bell Potter recognise the higher level of risk with their Speculative risk rating as it's an asset development company. They have lifted their valuation from $1.60 to $1.90 per share, and at LTR's current share price of $1.39, this implies 36% share price growth in a year. 
• And Trading Central have identified a bullish signal in Resimac Group (ASX:RMC), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $0.98 to the range of $1.24 - $1.30 over 26 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St closed higher overnight as stocks resumed the recent rally after key inflation data came in-line with expectations. The Dow Jones climbed 0.61%, the S&P500 traded 1.12% higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 1.54%. Investors took confidence in the slight rise in inflation through the latest CPI data, indicating core inflation rose 0.4% in February from January and 3.8% year-on-year, while the inflation rate in the US rose just 0.1% to 3.2% in February.

Over in Europe, markets closed higher in the region as investors responded to the latest US inflation data report. The STOXX600 rose 1% driven by automotive stocks while Germany’s DAX rose 1.23%, the French CAC added 0.84% and, over in the UK, the FTSE100 gained 1.02% on Tuesday.

British unemployment rate data came out yesterday indicated a rise to 3.9% for January from 3.8% in December and slowing wage growth which provide further supportive evidence for interest rate cuts to come.

Locally yesterday, the ASX ended Tuesday’s rollercoaster session 0.1% higher after a morning rally was overturned in midday trade by a US-inflation data fear driven sell off, before settling the day up 0.1%. Gains were led by the information technology and utilities sectors which rose 1.15% and 0.88% respectively. This was offset by the energy sector which lost 0.77%.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.18% at market open this morning.
• On the commodities front this morning, 
  • Oil is trading 0.16% higher at US$78.05 cents a barrel following OPEC’s optimistic outlook on global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.
  • Gold is trading 1.1% lower at US$2158 an ounce, following US inflation data coming back slightly above expectations.
  • And iron ore is trading down 5.96% to US$110.50 a tonne following subdued demand in China causing a cautious approach among steelmakers who are hesitant on restocking supply.

Trading Ideas: 

• Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) and has an unchanged 12-month price target of $4.25. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as the FY24 results are seen as a potential catalyst to meet the guidance with the highlights being continued strong growth in the core mobile and infrastructure businesses and signs of some turnaround in Enterprise. 
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal in GUD Holdings (ASX:GUD), indicating that the stock price may rise from the close of $11.42 to the close of $13.40-$13.90, on a pattern formed over 25 days according to the standard principles of technical analysis.

Wall St fell overnight as investors await important US inflation data out on Tuesday. The S&P 500 finished the day 0.11% lower, as did the tech-heavy Nasdaq which closed 0.41% in the red. Whilst the Dow Jones added 0.12% by the closing bell. These losses come as CPI data for last month will be released in the US on Tuesday with economists predicting CPI will rise 0.4% between January and February and 3.1% on an annual basis.

Over in Europe, markets closed lower overnight to start the new trading week. The STOXX600 closed 0.4% lower with technology stocks losing 2.1% while food and beverage stocks added 0.3%. Germany’s DAX fell 0.38%, the French CAC lost 0.1% and over in the UK the FTSE100 gained 0.12%.

Locally yesterday, the ASX200 closed the trading session down 1.82% with all sectors ending in the red. Losses were led by the materials and financial sectors which fell 2.56% and 2.17% respectively.

What to watch today: 

• The Australian share market is set to open slightly higher, with the SPI futures suggesting a rise of 0.06% at market open this morning.
• Australian inflation data will be released this morning with core inflation month on month forecasted at 0.3%, slowing from the 0.4% in the previous month.
• On the commodities front this morning,
   
  • Oil is trading up 0.04% at US$78.04 a barrel ahead of important US inflation data and monthly OPEC reports to be released this week. 
  • Gold is trading 0.24% higher at US$2182 an ounce and iron ore is trading 0.84% lower at US$117.50 a tonne.

What to watch today: 

• Bell Potter maintains a buy rating on Paragon Care (ASX:PGC) and has increased its price target to $0.31. The buy rating is maintained by Bell Potter as Paragon Care have entered into a share sale agreement with the privately owned CH2, whereby PGC will acquire all CH2 shares, with the merger transaction highly likely to proceed. The valuation is based on the full year proforma earnings for the merged group using a capitalised earnings model of 8x post-merger EBITDA, inclusive of $8m in revenue and cost synergies.
• And Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), indicating the stock price may rise from the close of $14.77 to the range of $17-$17.50 on a pattern formed over 126 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.