Beyond the Buildings

In this episode of Beyond the Buildings, we dive into "The Chicago Anomaly," where we explore a surprising shift in hail risk. Host Maiclaire Bolton Smith welcomes back Jon Schneyer, Director of Research and Content at Cotality, to discuss how Chicago has overtaken Dallas-Fort Worth as the metro area with the highest potential for hail damages. Together, they unpack the factors driving this change, including property values, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as the implications for homeowners and insurers alike. They also touch on the often-overlooked "invisible risks" that can arise from hail damage and the importance of proactive mitigation strategies. Tune in for a compelling conversation that sheds light on the evolving landscape of property risk in the U.S.

The 2026 U.S. housing market is being reshaped by policy and economic forces: a triple-threat of surging oil prices, evolving interest rate policies, and new executive orders from D.C.

- Rising oil prices affect more than just morning commutes. Housing costs can also experience knock-on effects.

- Mortgage rates dipped below 6% earlier this year, but persistent inflation pushed them back up to where Cotality’s Office of the Chief Economist thinks they’ll stabilize.

- While executive orders target corporate buyers, Cotality data shows that mom-and-pop investors drive most competition, limiting impact of these restrictions.

Links:

https://www.cotality.com/insights/podcasts?sort_name=desc

With rising storm risks increasing insurance premiums, there has been a shift in U.S. insurance availability and affordability. Building codes are a regulatory level that could help fortify homeowners and buffer the system against the increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters.

— The cost of fortifying a home ranges widely, but it is accessible. Most new homes built in Florida meet a safety level nearly identical to the IBHS Fortified Gold standard.

— Cotality’s Cognitive Imagery amplifies insight into risk. By mapping billions of high-resolution Vexcel Imaging against our proprietary data ecosystem, we reveal how properties truly live, change, and endure.

— Natural hazard risk awareness is evolving and there are generational differences in how people perceive risk.

While missing middle housing offers a scalable solution to the national affordability crisis by providing diverse, house-scale options, it remains largely untapped due to restrictive zoning and specialized financing gaps.

- These housing types have been largely missing for 70 years because many U.S. zoning laws made it illegal to build anything other than detached single-family homes.

- When people move into new middle housing, they vacate older, more affordable units, opening up the housing ladder.

- While many cities struggle with housing shortages, regions like Portland, Oregon and South Bend, Indiana have successfully shifted their mandates to unlock new inventory.

Links:

https://www.cotality.com/insights/podcasts?sort_name=desc

While AI is transforming real estate by recalibrating markets and pricing risk faster than ever, it faces a significant trust gap.

- Professionals must be able to see where data comes from, its diversity, and how it is governed.

- Quality control remains a human responsibility. Cotality’s From House to Home survey reveals homebuyers still overwhelmingly prefer human expertise over AI-only tools.

- Without human intervention and new data infusion, AI risks becoming a "closed loop".

Links:

https://www.cotality.com/insights/podcasts?sort_name=desc

The U.S. property market is losing its traditional stability as rising insurance premiums and environmental volatility rewrite the rules of homeownership. - - In some high-risk regions, monthly escrow payments are now outpacing the actual mortgage payment.

- Features like wind-resistant roofs or elevated foundations can lower insurance costs and increases property desirability.

- Property value is moving away from "the view" and toward structure resilience scores—using granular data to ensure a home can withstand future disasters.

Links:

https://www.cotality.com/insights/podcasts?sort_name=desc

The U.S. property market is losing its traditional stability as rising insurance premiums and environmental volatility rewrite the rules of homeownership. - - In some high-risk regions, monthly escrow payments are now outpacing the actual mortgage payment.

- Features like wind-resistant roofs or elevated foundations can lower insurance costs and increases property desirability.

- Property value is moving away from "the view" and toward structure resilience scores—using granular data to ensure a home can withstand future disasters.

Links:

https://www.cotality.com/insights/podcasts?sort_name=desc

In this compelling episode of Beyond the Buildings, host Maiclaire Bolton Smith delves into the transformative impact of AI on the property market, a conversation featuring Cotality's Chief Data and Analytics Officer, John Rogers. As AI redefines home buying by swiftly recalibrating prices and financing, the episode explores the critical balance between technological advancement and ethical responsibility. John emphasizes the necessity of trust within this new landscape, highlighting the importance of explainable models and human oversight. The discussion reveals how predictive tools can expand opportunities while addressing the industry's obligation to avoid bias and exclusion. Tune in as we examine the evolving relationship between data-driven insights and the human element in property decision-making, shedding light on how trust is becoming the new currency in an AI-driven market.

The year 2025 was marked by stubbornly high interest rates and persistent supply challenges across the globe. However, not all markets moved in the same direction.  

- The U.S. market generally cooled off, with price growth slowing down and even falling in some areas.  

- Australia saw the housing market grow, fueled by three central bank rate cuts that helped buoy the market.

- Still, unaffordability remains a barrier restricting homeownership access to homeownership for many.  

Links:

Cotality Insights - https://www.cotality.com/insights

2025 saw a variety of legislative proposals aimed at thawing the U.S. housing market and helping relieve persistent unaffordability.

- Ideas like 50-year mortgage terms and portable loans target affordability and the lock-in effect, but face hurdles regarding high interest costs and secondary market feasibility.

- The ROAD to Housing bill and light-touch density zoning aim to incrementally boost inventory by incentivizing “missing middle" development.

- Escalating natural disaster frequency is intersecting with a shift toward state-based aid, threatening housing resilience and stability.

Links:

Cotality Insights

https://www.cotality.com/insights

Cotality home price indexes

https://www.cotality.com/products/hpi-and-hpi-forecasts