Where we're at:

Right now, if I walk down the street almost anywhere in the United States, I will see “Help Wanted” signs in the windows, on Amazon trucks, and almost everywhere. The United States is experiencing a labour shortage and one of the tightest labour markets since records were kept.

As a result of the labour shortage, current grads are getting jobs and great salaries. The Wall Street Journal wrote "The Class of 2022 represents the most in-demand college graduates to enter the job market in years."

At the same time and probably as a result of the tight job market, application volume declined this past cycle at many graduate programs. In several podcast interviews that I conducted, whether with medical school, law school, or business school, admissions deans and directors, the school representatives indicated that application volume was down from the stratospheric levels of 2020-21, but not below pre-COVID levels. At May’s AIGAC conference, several top MBA admissions directors also expressed concern about summer melt – the number of admitted applicants who have indicated they will attend and then decide either not to go for an MBA or to attend another program - as well as the employer incentives NOT to go for an MBA.

The drop in application volume stemming from the tight job market, however, is good news for applicants. It means it's easier to get into better programs than it was at the height of the COVID recession. Fewer applicants also almost always lead to more and larger scholarships for highly qualified students.

The question for applicants thinking about applying during the 2022-23 application cycle is: Will the applicant party continue? Will grad admissions, especially MBA admissions, see further declines in application volume? Will it remain a buyer’s market?

I really doubt it. And here’s why.

Listen: Linda Abraham talks about why you should apply to grad school asap in this special podcast episode

Drumbeat of warning about a coming recession

In late 2021 and early 2022 the economic predictions were optimistic. By May, that confidence had dissipated. Inflation surged, the stock market slumped, supply chain snafus multiplied, Russia invaded Ukraine, and interest rates climbed.

Headlines increasingly relayed recession and layoff warnings.

* Lloyd Blankfein, senior chairman of Goldman Sachs, warned on Face the Nation on May 15 of a high risk of recession.* Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said there was "no question" that we are headed towards a recession.* The Wall Street Journal reported; "Companies which saw substantial growth during the Covid-19 pandemic are starting to take a more cautious approach toward hiring and...