00:01.55

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a bonus episode that we'll be looking at a new poll about Doge and also how Virginia politicians on both sides of the aisle are dealing with the issue right now.

00:20.47

Sam Shirazi

So, I should guess I should first start that sometimes I will do these bonus episodes if there's something that is interesting that's in the news, that's topical, might not require a full podcast, but I wanted to just give my thoughts on something that I saw and have a little bit of a shorter version of that. I will do a bonus episode.

00:40.07

Sam Shirazi

And so I noticed this Fox News poll that came out and it was a national poll about different things, including President Trump's approval, but it had some specific questions about Doge and the actions that it had been taking. And I thought it'd be interesting to try to extrapolate what it means for Virginia. So this is a national poll and former Vice President Harris won Virginia by six points. So you would think that Virginia generally is a little bit more

01:12.31

Sam Shirazi

Democratic leaning than the rest of the country. So that's one thing to keep in mind when you you see these numbers. And the other thing, I think sometimes Democrats are a little bit skeptical of Fox News polls, because obviously Fox News generally tends to lean towards the right.

01:27.68

Sam Shirazi

However, I find that their polls are often pretty accurate and generally they have a pretty good reputation in the polling industry. And I think in 2024 they were generally in the ballpark. So I tend to pay attention to Fox News polls and don't really worry about the fact that it comes from Fox News.

01:44.89

Sam Shirazi

So in terms of DOGE, this national poll that found that 51% opposed reducing the federal workforce, 65% are concerned not enough planning has gone into spending cuts,

01:59.89

Sam Shirazi

And Elon Musk's job performance at Doge is 40% approved, 58% disapproved. And again, these are national numbers. So that seems a little bit, if you extrapolate out to Virginia being a more democratic state, and also the fact that Virginia is being hit hard by some of the federal job cuts, you would think that those numbers are even more drastic in Virginia.

02:21.92

Sam Shirazi

And so I think the poll is interesting because it gives us a sense that the electorate while they generally want efficiencies in the government, I think there's also a sense that they want these efficiencies to be brought through an efficient process and not necessarily the sledgehammer or chainsaw approach that has been taken and more of a scalpel approach is probably what the electorate is looking for.

02:48.06

Sam Shirazi

And I would say generally job cuts and layoffs are not super popular with the broader electorate, particularly when There are other options that have worked in the past, such as hiring freezes where just natural attrition will lead to a lower federal workforce. I think the way the job cuts have gone about, sometimes they've been done on a mass scale and also sometimes there hasn't been a lot of warning given to the workers. And I think generally in the news, the reception has not been great to that in terms of different people when they they look look at the news.

03:26.40

Sam Shirazi

So what does this all this mean for Virginia? I think the Republicans are in a difficult position because if you think about it, President Trump's the leader of their party. He's pretty popular among the Republican base.

03:38.06

Sam Shirazi

They really can't distance themselves from President Trump in this area. And so they have to kind of walk this fine line of supporting President Trump.

03:49.39

Sam Shirazi

While at the same time, they probably most Republicans in Virginia understand that these are not super popular among the wider electorate and that Virginia is being a Democratic leaning state.

04:00.09

Sam Shirazi

They'll need to try to win over independent voters to win the election this year. And so they they have a very complicated task ahead of them trying to navigate this. And Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin put some statements out there this week about what's going on. And I'll just read to you what he said.

04:19.81

Sam Shirazi

He said, quote, striving to gain efficiencies and reduce costs in the federal government is at the heart of regaining our fiscal responsibility as a nation. And I recognize that what comes with this is dislocation.

04:34.48

Sam Shirazi

End quote. So, and I think, obviously, Glenn Youngkin comes from the corporate world. He used to be a CEO. And I think the term dislocation is interesting because that's basically corporate talk for layoffs, firings, unemployment.

04:48.96

Sam Shirazi

And so, obviously, he's trying to put a spin on it, saying that the dislocations, in his words, are required. I did find it interesting that when... Governor Yonkin made those statements. It was at a bill signing ceremony for a number of bills that were passed by the General Assembly.

05:05.57

Sam Shirazi

And Lieutenant Governor Winston Sears was there as well. And obviously, Lieutenant Governor Sears is running for governor. And so you see this kind of...

05:16.51

Sam Shirazi

statements that Governor Yunkin has to put out to try to walk that fine line of supporting the cuts that are being made to the federal government. At the same time, I think he's trying not to be overly harsh or or celebratory in the fact that people are getting fired, which sometimes you see maybe on more pro-Mega accounts that people are you know more gleeful that people that federal employees are getting fired. I think Governor Youngkin doesn't want to take that tone.

05:44.87

Sam Shirazi

He's viewing it more as kind of a cold business calculation. But I don't think that's a whole lot of comfort for Virginians who are losing their jobs or who are scared of about losing their jobs.

05:55.75

Sam Shirazi

And so i think the Republicans are in a difficult position this year in Virginia having to deal with this issue. On the flip side, obviously, the Democrats are going to exploit this issue as much as they can because it affects a lot of Virginians.

06:13.30

Sam Shirazi

And it's also something that is more of an economic issue that I think the Democrats feel that they can win back that issue. And if you think about 2024, obviously,

06:25.29

Sam Shirazi

economy was on top of mind for a lot of voters. And even though the federal government changes and the firing of certain federal workers in the grand scheme of things may not be affecting as many Virginians as other economic issues, I think the news is still out there. And so if you're not super political you're not super attuned to all this stuff you're still seeing news about layoffs and generally people don't want to see news about layoffs in the news and they might not know how widespread the layoffs are or if it's going to come to the private sector and so i think in that sense the democrats have an opportunity to really exploit this issue for lack of a better word and you saw that with likely democratic nominee

07:09.68

Sam Shirazi

former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, she said, Virginians deserve leaders who create, not attack jobs in the Commonwealth, and they deserve a governor who's willing to stand up to the president to protect Virginia's economy and the families that rely on these jobs. So,

07:27.76

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, she's taking a pretty clear message there where she is supporting pushing back on these job cuts, and it's not something that she would ever endorse.

07:39.15

Sam Shirazi

And I think that creates a real clear distinction between the parties. And I think the Republicans are going to have to figure out what their message is on this. And if if you look at what might be coming down the pipeline for the Republicans, so i I've said this before, we don't know if there's going to be a Republican primary for the governor's race. April 3rd is the filing deadline and two candidates, former Delegate Dave O'Rock,

08:05.18

Sam Shirazi

and former state senator Amanda Chase are attempting to get the 10,000 signatures required to get on the ballot. And obviously we'll see if they're able to get on the ballot. But if there is a primary, and that's gonna be driving Lieutenant Governor Sears more towards the camp of endorsing or at least not pushing back against these cots. And one of the candidates O' Former delegate Dave LaRock has come out full throat in support of what Doge is doing and he has gone a step further and pro proposed to the creation of a Virginia State, state equivalent David O' Doge. so

08:41.10

Sam Shirazi

presumably if he ends up being governor, he would create the Virginia Doge that would go in and look at ways David O' Doing similar things to the state government.

08:52.06

Sam Shirazi

that DOGE has been doing to the federal government. Now, obviously, that may have support among the base of the Republican Party. i think that will be a much harder sell to the electorate, generally, given there's already cuts at the federal level. i'm not sure there's a huge stomach for cuts at the state level.

09:10.34

Sam Shirazi

And so there's a lot going on with with these, I will say, here in Northern Virginia, so I live in Arlington, it is a big issue. There's a lot of people who are affected either directly or indirectly by it. and It's something you'll see on the local news, on the local social media.

09:26.38

Sam Shirazi

And it's hard to kind of get away from it if you're in Northern Virginia. And I suspect that's true in other parts of Virginia, maybe somewhere like Hampton Roads, where there's also a lot of federal jobs. and And Hampton Roads is more of a military area.

09:42.39

Sam Shirazi

But there have been reports that the Department of Defense will also be cutting its civilian employee staff. It's unclear if that's going to be through firings or maybe just attrition during a hiring freeze, but that will also impact Hampton Roads.

09:58.19

Sam Shirazi

It's possible parts of Virginia, Southwest Virginia, Southside Virginia may support or generally may be more supportive of these cuts, but One thing to keep in mind is federal employees are everywhere, so it's not just Northern Virginia. In some of these areas, the federal government might be a large employer, and so the cuts, even if they aren't huge in number in certain parts of Virginia,

10:23.04

Sam Shirazi

That could be actually a big deal if, for example, there's a VA facility that is seeing some cuts because it's a smaller community and it's a fair amount of jobs in that community. So I think the politics of this is earth are tricky for the Republicans because they have to do their rest and and stand behind President Trump.

10:42.04

Sam Shirazi

But they, at the same time, are facing a lot of negative headlines in the news about the the job cuts. And I think one thing that was interesting in the Fox news poll is president Trump's approval nationally. What's almost even, I think it was slightly something like 51 49 negative approval.

11:03.25

Sam Shirazi

But as I mentioned, the, Popularity of Elon Musk and his actions with Doge are less popular than President Trump. And so the Republicans are in this tough spot where they have to support President Trump because he's generally popular with the Republican Party.

11:18.27

Sam Shirazi

But then you have someone like Doge and Elon Musk who are less popular with the general population. And so they have to walk this line where they're supporting President Trump.

11:27.88

Sam Shirazi

And so this issue, obviously, this podcast is called Federal Fallout. I think most of the premise of the podcast has been that the job job cuts in Virginia are going to have a toll on the Republicans this year.

11:40.68

Sam Shirazi

could Could not happen, but I think most people are assuming The more this issue continues, the more it's in the news, the more job cuts there are the better it is going to be for the Democrats this year in Virginia.

11:52.49

Sam Shirazi

There is a possibility in theory that Who knows? Perhaps the whole project kind of loses steam. The job cuts aren't really there anymore.

12:03.01

Sam Shirazi

And it isn't as big of an issue come November as it is right now. That's a possibility. i think we'll just have to wait and see. But it seems like it's still going to be around.

12:15.39

Sam Shirazi

for the rest of the year. And I think we're just going to have to see how much of an impact ends up having on this year's Virginia elections. So I just wanted to give a quick rundown of that Fox News poll. I'm not going to try to obsess too much over polls. We'll probably get more Virginia polls. And if I see any interesting ones, I will talk about it on the podcast.

12:36.83

Sam Shirazi

I don't intend to always be doing podcast specifically about one poll. This one was more to just kind of touch base about where things are in terms of the popularity of Doge, and then also the impact it's having on the Virginia governor's election.

12:50.67

Sam Shirazi

And if there are other polls did i that come out that either talk about the Virginia election specifically or about some of these issues generally in terms of Doge, I will cover them.

13:01.76

Sam Shirazi

But for now, that is it for this bonus episode of Federal Fallout, and I hope you join us next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com