Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fall Out the 2025 Virginia Election. This is a bonus episode where we will go over the final campaign finance reports before the election. And the reason that there was these reports is so that the public can know how much money the campaigns have raised, how much they’ve spent.

00:16.97

Sam Shirazi

And it covers the period of October 1st through October 23rd. I’m going to go through all the statewide offices, then I’ll spend some time on the House of Delegates, Primarily, I will focus on the House of Delegates and the Attorney General race because i think that’s where there was the most interesting campaign finance information.

00:34.23

Sam Shirazi

And then I also wanted to think through, you know, what is the point of all this money? What are the campaigns trying to accomplish? And I will say for the Attorney General and House of Delegates races, it’s all about ticket splitting and the campaigns trying to either increase ticket splitting or minimize ticket splitting.

00:48.94

Sam Shirazi

And I’ll talk about both those strategies in the Attorney General race and House of Delegates. But to begin, let’s start with the governor’s race, because obviously that’s the big big race on election night.

01:00.02

Sam Shirazi

And I’ll go through the numbers, and I’ll talk a little bit about what it might mean. So in terms of fundraising, Abigail Spanberger still had the edge, but when some Earl Sears narrowed it, this report, Spanberger raised about a little over $11.7 million, whereas Earl Sears raised about $9.5 million.

01:18.44

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger has more cash on hand, so she has $4 million cash on hand compared to $1.25 million for Earl Sears. And then finally, Spanberger spent more than Earl Sears. She spent about $13 million, whereas Earl Sears spent about $9.9 million.

01:32.24

Sam Shirazi

So obviously, consistently throughout this race, Spanberger has been leading in the money, and even in this last campaign finance report, Spanberger is ahead. However, Earl Sears has made up ground, and this looks better for her than previous campaign finance reports.

01:46.26

Sam Shirazi

You could argue it’s a little bit too little too late. Obviously, it helps Earl Sears that she has this money and she’s been running more ads. But frankly, for most of September and even earlier, Spanberger was really dominating the airwaves and Spanberger had a bigger war chest. She was able to go up earlier.

02:02.86

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. and earl sears has been catching up the whole time now you could argue this report is maybe showing that the republicans are taking the governor’s race a little bit more seriously i don’t know it’s cause they think they’re going to win the governor’s race i think it’s more so that it isn’t a total blowout at the top of the ticket and obviously that’s going to be important for the attorney general race that’s going to be important for some of these house of delegates candidates So you are seeing the Republicans spending more money on Earl Sears in the hopes that it isn’t a blowout at the top of the ticket.

02:31.78

Sam Shirazi

Again, you could argue maybe it’s a little bit too little too late. Spanberger obviously still has more money. She’s running more ads generally during the the entire campaign cycle. And I think if you if you think about the money that Spanberger has, she still is trying to reach those independent voters. You know, Earl Sears, it’s a little bit unclear what her strategy has been.

02:53.75

Sam Shirazi

First, she was talking about the trans issue. Then she was talking about the Jay Jones text. You know, unclear if any of those really stuck. I think there have been some pieces where she’s trying to reach independent voters.

03:05.09

Sam Shirazi

But because of Spanberger lead in terms of the money and her going up early and consistently in all the polls, Spanberger has been ahead with independent voters. And I think the governor’s race, it’s one of those things where,

03:17.61

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger still enjoys the campaign finance advantage and Earl Sears just cannot make up that gap in terms of the polling, given that she’s behind in the money, given the environment. So all that’s to say is like, obviously, the Republicans are probably taking the governor’s race a little bit more seriously now.

03:33.59

Sam Shirazi

But, you know, I just don’t know if it’s ultimately going to change the outcome. And if you think about it from a Republican standpoint, I mean, the point of the governor’s race is not necessarily to win it. I think the point is to get Earl Sears to within maybe seven, six points of Spanberger.

03:48.07

Sam Shirazi

That would be a good night for the Republicans. And that’s kind of the range where... Miara’s might be able to hang on. I think if Earl Sears is losing by 10 or more, I think that’s the range where Jones definitely can pull it off. So the Republicans, they’re starting to spend big in the governor’s race.

04:03.67

Sam Shirazi

I think more so to maybe help Miara’s at the attorney general spot. And we’ll talk about the attorney general spot in a second. I did want to just quickly go over the lieutenant governor’s race. Not as interesting just because the money is not as big, but I’ll just go over it.

04:16.76

Sam Shirazi

Ghazala Hashmi, the Democratic nominee. Still enjoys the fundraising advantage. She raised about $1.85 million, whereas Jean-Reed has been far behind. He raised about $454,000.

04:28.25

Sam Shirazi

Reed does have more cash on hand, but that’s because Hashimi spent a lot more money. So Reed has about $350,000 cash on hand compared to $335,000 for Hashimi. But Hashimi had a bigger war chest. She basically spent all her war chests, which makes sense because it’s the end of the campaign and she wants to run her ads.

04:46.03

Sam Shirazi

Hashmi spent about $4.6 million compared to just $491,000 for John Reed. And this has been pretty consistent where Hashmi’s had the fundraising advantage. John Reed’s just never really been great at raising money.

04:57.77

Sam Shirazi

you know He’s pretty good at getting earned media, but it’s not the same as running ads. Hashmi spent her war chest. she’s not but She’s not running as many ads as these other candidates, but she’s certainly running a decent amount of ads for herself. So Overall, I mean, I think the main advantage, I mean, Hashmi does have the fundraising advantage. I think the main advantage Hashmi has is that top of a ticket Spamburger is going to win by decent amount. Hashmi doesn’t have the issues that Jay Jones has. So I think while she’s not polling as well as Spamburger, a lot of that is just name ID. And I think at the end of the day, but

05:28.54

Sam Shirazi

Unless something crazy happens, Hashmi should be able to pull it out. you know Fundraising helps a little bit, but ultimately the main advantage that Hashmi has is her top of the ticket versus John Reed’s top of the ticket. So not a lot else to say for the lieutenant governor’s race.

05:42.66

Sam Shirazi

I did want to spend a lot of time on the attorney general race because that’s the most interesting race in terms of being the most competitive of the statewide offices on election night, as well as interesting numbers in the fundraising category.

05:55.55

Sam Shirazi

So not a huge surprise. After the Jay Jones tech story came out, Jason Miara has got a bunch of money. The Republicans were willing to spend a lot on him. And in October, just up until October 23rd, Jason Miara has raised over $8.6 million.

06:12.01

Sam Shirazi

And that compares to just around $1.9 million for Jay Jones. Uh, Meares also has more cash on hand. He has about 2.5 million cash on hand compared to about 685,000 for Jones.

06:25.67

Sam Shirazi

And even, even though Meares has more cash on hand, he also spent more. So we’re seeing a lot of Meares ads because he spent 9.5 million compared to about 4.7 million for Jones. Now Jones did have a little bit of a war chest. So he’s also spending his war chest. It’s not like there are no Jay Jones ads. He’s running his ads, but ultimately In this race, obviously, Miárez has the advantage.

06:47.40

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, the Republicans are pouring a lot of money in to try to save Miárez. And we’ll see how much of a difference it makes. And I talked about the point of the money in this race. For Miárez, it really just comes down to ticket splitting. And his goal is to get people who voted for Spanberger at the top the ticket to vote for him.

07:05.21

Sam Shirazi

In the attorney general race, obviously, Jay Jones has the opposite goal. He wants to make sure that people who voted for Spamberger vote for him in the attorney general race. And it’s kind of an open question how much the money is going to matter. i mean, obviously, Meares having the cash means he can run his ads. He can kind of remind voters of the story. He can push the story out to more voters.

07:24.36

Sam Shirazi

But the reality is... A lot of voters already are aware of it. They are probably going to make their mind based on other factors, such as whether they want to send a message about President Trump.

07:36.32

Sam Shirazi

And you know the fundamental dynamics of the race are the same. It’s basically...

07:40.80

Sam Shirazi

What’s more important to voters? yeah Are the tax more important or is Trump more important? And I think while the money can help Meares try to boost up his numbers a little bit, it’s unclear if at the end of the day, people will go into the polling booth and vote for Spanberger at the top of the ticket and Meares in the attorney general spot. Of course, there will be some ticket splitting. The question is how much.

08:01.50

Sam Shirazi

And I think both Jones and Meares are kind of stuck in the higher quality nonpartisan polling at around 45, 46 percent. So you see that they are getting a decent amount of support from the base of their party.

08:14.23

Sam Shirazi

The question is those undecideds who haven’t necessarily backed one of the candidates or the other, what do they do? Do they split their ticket? Do they vote straight ticket? Do they undervote, which basically means they skip that race?

08:25.83

Sam Shirazi

I think those are all possibilities. I think there’s a lot of different factors you have to look at. you have to look at turnout. you have to look at how much of the exact combination of straight ticket versus ticket splitting versus undervotes there’s going to be.

08:37.39

Sam Shirazi

And so all that makes this race inherently unpredictable. I don’t think either of the candidates are going to have a clear advantage going into election day. I think it’s just one of those things we’re going to have to wait and see. And while there might not be a whole lot of suspense on election night with the governor’s race at the top the ticket, I do think a Attorney General’s race is going to be very interesting.

08:55.55

Sam Shirazi

And it’s also just kind of a test of the environment versus a candidate-specific issue. Because if you look at the specific issues for the candidates, obviously, Meares is a fundraiser. Jay Jones had those.

09:06.38

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, Meares has... Obviously, Miara’s has the fundraising advantage. He has incumbency. He has the issues that Jay Jones has with the tax. So a lot of things going Miara’s way. The question becomes,

09:17.43

Sam Shirazi

OK, is that enough to overcome the overall environment where Trump is unpopular? More more people disapprove of Trump in Virginia than approve of him. Spanberger is going to win by a decent amount at the top of the ticket. OK, is that enough for Joy Jones owes to hang on? And really, there’s no way of knowing. We’ll find out in less than a week when the results start coming in. But yeah, anyway, so interesting numbers in the attorney general race.

09:42.52

Sam Shirazi

I did want to spend a decent amount of time on the House of Delegates because, again, i think the House of Delegates are often overlooked. Most people are focusing on the statewide offices, particularly Governor and Attorney General. However, as we saw this week with redistricting, so the General Assembly came back to Richmond. They started the process of potentially amending the Virginia Constitution and putting a referendum on the ballot.

10:02.99

Sam Shirazi

That is primarily or almost exclusively in the purview of the state Senate and the House of Delegates. So the House of Delegates are important for that amendment, for other amendments that might happen in the future. They’re important for regular old bills.

10:15.58

Sam Shirazi

And I do think because there’s so much attention to the governor and attorney general race, the House Delegates is not getting a lot of attention. But the numbers were really striking in this fundraising a report in the House of Delegates. So in terms of the overall fundraising, the candidates Democrats are running versus the candidates Republicans are running.

10:32.30

Sam Shirazi

The Democratic candidates raised over $21.7 million. dollars So huge, huge haul for the Democrats in the House of Delegates, whereas the Republican candidates only raised a little over $6.7 million.

10:44.81

Sam Shirazi

So we’re seeing that the Democrats in the House of Delegates have raised more than three times the amount that the Republicans have raised. Some of these competitive battleground districts where the Democrats are trying to beat incumbent Republicans, just crazy amounts of money being raised in the 30th House district.

11:02.43

Sam Shirazi

The Democrat John McAuliffe has raised over two million dollars. In the 22nd House District, Elizabeth Guzman has raised over $1.6 million. In the 71st House District, Jessica Anderson has raised over $1.5 million.

11:15.73

Sam Shirazi

And basically, it’s kind of the same story. Those were the biggest numbers, but basically every single seat the Democrats are targeting, trying to defeat incumbent Republicans, they have raised more in this campaign finance report.

11:27.42

Sam Shirazi

And you know they’re definitely on the offense. They’re trying to get as many seats as possible. I think they want to send a message in terms of beating a lot of incumbent Republicans. And, you know, I talked about this before. I think the issue the Republicans are having is that Meares is sucking up a lot of the fundraising and the oxygen. And so if you’re a Republican donor, you’re thinking about saving the attorney general spot.

11:48.88

Sam Shirazi

Basically, that’s only a thing the Republicans have a good shot of winning this year. And so he’s getting a lot of fundraising. These House of Delegates candidates are not getting a lot of fundraising. Now, you could argue the amount of money the Republicans are spending at the governor’s race and that the attorney general race is going to help down ballot, because obviously, if Earl Sears is not getting blown out and then Miara is either wins or keeps it close, that’s probably going to help the House of Delegates candidates down ballot. So you could argue it kind of makes sense.

12:15.48

Sam Shirazi

if you think about, you know, what what are the Democrats trying to achieve with all this spending, it’s kind of the exact same thing that Meares is trying to achieve, except the other way. So,

12:25.16

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger, she’s going to be doing well at the top the ticket. I expect that she’s going to be winning most of the competitive battleground seats in the House of Delegates. What the Democrats are hoping to do is just get straight but straight ticket voting. just You fill out Spanberger and you fill out everyone else in the bubble, including the House of Delegates candidates.

12:43.21

Sam Shirazi

Republicans obviously are hoping that even if Spanberger wins these districts at the top of the ticket, they can get their incumbents to survive through ticket splitting. And it’s an open question. I mean, I think obviously money helps. If you can run ads, you’re going to raise your name ID. You could try to attack the Republicans in some of these districts.

12:59.68

Sam Shirazi

That’s going to minimize ticket splitting. The question is, can the Democrats get enough? Does the map money really matter? How many candidates? how many Voters are really focusing on the House of Delegates races to the extent that they’re either going to ticket split or to the extent that they they’re not not going ticket split.

13:16.22

Sam Shirazi

So again, House of Delegates, super interesting because there’s so many of these individual races and it’s just a really interesting dynamic. And one thing I was surprised about was the fact that basically every...

13:27.45

Sam Shirazi

Republican but incumbent got some money. And I don’t think the Republicans, quote unquote, triaged anyone because i think their attitude was if you’re an incumbent Republican, you decide to run again. Even if you’re in a tough race, we’re going to be willing to back you.

13:40.99

Sam Shirazi

And so I’ve talked about House District 57. This is in the Richmond suburbs. Democrats are very likely going to flip this seat. However, the incumbent Republican, David Owens, still got $423,000 in October, which was really surprising to me because that’s more than some of the other incumbents in tough races.

13:56.65

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, May Navarro, the Democratic nominee, still outraised him. I think the reality is that unless something crazy happens, she’s going to win. And so you’re seeing the Republicans still spending in that race. And, you know, you could say it might not make a whole lot of sense. But I think from the Republican perspective, they don’t want to necessarily cut anyone loose.

14:15.16

Sam Shirazi

And it’s tough. It’s tough when you’re an incumbent and you’re expecting support from the party, even if you’re in a tough race. So anyways, that’s the House of Delegates. I mean, i think a lot of people, particularly the election nerds, are going to be looking at, okay, what’s the final margin at the top of the ticket?

14:31.02

Sam Shirazi

And then how many seats can the Democrats get up to? I think i think the Democrats are probably – Hoping to get 60. I think 60 psychologically is a big number. If they can flip nine seats, get up to 60, I think they can say that they had a really good night in the House of Delegates.

14:46.100

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, Republicans are trying to minimize their losses, try to keep the chamber competitive. Even if it doesn’t flip in 2027, maybe they can hope to flip it in 2029. And yeah, we’ll we’ll see.

14:58.11

Sam Shirazi

i think it’s these campaign finance numbers kind of confirm what we already knew for the governor’s race. Spanberger has the advantage and Earl Sears is trying to play catch up, but it might just be a little bit too late to really change the outcome in that race.

15:13.45

Sam Shirazi

Lieutenant Governor Hashmi has more money. Generally, she’s going to benefit from straight ticket voting. And so she’ll she’ll probably end up being able to be winning that race after Spanberger is able to win at the top of the ticket, if that’s what ends up happening. Attorney General race, Republicans really spending a lot trying to save Meares. We’ll see if he’s able to do that or if Jay Jones is able to survive through straight ticket voting.

15:36.11

Sam Shirazi

House of Delegates, consistently the the Democrats have had a big advantage. We’ll see if it actually gets translated into actual seats. All the money gets translated into seats. So Long story short, fundraising, super interesting, but kind of confirms what we know. Interesting to see the actual numbers and see it on paper.

15:54.39

Sam Shirazi

But yeah, I mean, ultimately, we are about, you know, six days out. And it’s going to be really interesting to see what ends up happening on election night. I’m going to try to cover everything.

16:05.96

Sam Shirazi

I mean, there’s so much going on. There’s redistricting, there’s the shutdown, you know, and there there’s all these polls coming out and I can’t even cover every single poll because that would just be too much. I will try to do some more podcasts before the election just to give people a sense of where everything is going, what I’m seeing.

16:22.93

Sam Shirazi

You know, I gave you my update now with both campaign finance and where I think the state of the race is in these different campaigns. Appreciate everyone who’s been listening. There’s been a lot going on. Hopefully this is helpful.

16:35.05

Sam Shirazi

you know Feel free to follow me on social media for all the updates. So much going on in the Virginia elections. It’s been a wild ride, and I think it’s going to be a wild end and really interesting to see what happens on the final days on the campaign trail.

16:47.66

Sam Shirazi

And I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. This has been Federal Fallout, and I’ll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com