
Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout to 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode where we will go over some news that happened Thursday evening in Arlington and just see how it might impact the campaign.
00:13.99
Sam Shirazi
Now, for full full disclosure, I don't always record my podcasts on Saturday morning when they are released. And so the full episode this week was before this incident happened and has a lot of good stuff in there, a lot of good background and into what happened. So definitely recommend listening to that one before you listen to this one.
00:32.37
Sam Shirazi
But I did want to kind of supplement that one and give you the update on what happened in Arlington. So as I had discussed in my previous podcast, The Winston-Marie Sears campaign is trying to seize on the issue of trans students in school and where they might be able to use the bathroom and locker rooms.
00:52.25
Sam Shirazi
And she came to Arlington Thursday evening to talk about this issue to the Arlington County School Board in front of them during their meeting. And you know that that happened and I think got a decent amount of attention. But there was this incident outside that happened that really was picked up buy more right-wing accounts and really pushed out there and made a decent amount of news.
01:16.51
Sam Shirazi
And so basically what happened was there was a protester outside. were large amounts of protesters outside, but this one protester who was more on the pro Trans student side brought a sign and I'm not going to read you the sign. You can Google it. But essentially, it was an inappropriate sign, made a comparison with segregation.
01:35.49
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, while people have strong opinions about this issue, I think it's it's not appropriate to really. talk about segregation in in a light way or make light of segregation, which this sign kind of basically did. So long story short, inappropriate sign.
01:51.78
Sam Shirazi
And the Republicans were able to kind of seize on that sign. And that was basically the big story because the sign also mentioned Winston Merle Sears specifically. So while her appearance at the school board was important in the sense of, you know, she came and gave her speech,
02:08.03
Sam Shirazi
I think the real news story out of this was the sign and the Democratic candidates who are running statewide all – denounced the sign and said didn't support that. And obviously this is something, you know, in the grand scheme of things is probably not the biggest story in the world, but in the Virginia elections in August was not a lot going on. This was something that I think particularly the Republicans wanted to use to maybe create some headlines for their campaign and talk about this issue that they think is a winning issue for them. And I talked about that in my previous podcast.
02:44.26
Sam Shirazi
So there's a few things going on here. um I don't think this is like a game changer that all of a sudden the race is now a tie and everything's changed overnight because of this one yeah incident that happened.
02:56.01
Sam Shirazi
But I think it shows more the Republicans really were are looking for something to turn around this race. And I think they they think this issue and then the specific incident might be able to do that.
03:07.63
Sam Shirazi
In some ways, it kind of gave the Republicans hope that they can have some sort of message or some sort of issue that their supporters will get behind. I think it was just a type of issue that...
03:20.10
Sam Shirazi
is able to get the Republicans all behind the Winston-Merle Sears campaign. And we've talked about this in the past. There was some division between the Lieutenant Governor candidate, John Reed, and Winston-Merle Sears. There's also been some division in the past between more MAGA supporters and who have not always completely supported Winston Merle Sears.
03:41.52
Sam Shirazi
But I think an issue like this, yeah kind of everyone gets behind their team. And on the Democratic side, you know they're more defensive. They don't want to obviously look like they're endorsing the message that was on the sign. So they they have to kind of put out the statements that whereas the Republicans are really going after and using this sign to kind of and make their supporters engaged in this election.
04:03.51
Sam Shirazi
So I think it was also just a good reminder that this race is not over. I think I have tried not to say that. There have been times where I certainly think the Democrats were doing well, and I think they had the advantage. And I just had to say that, frankly, that the Democrats were ahead in Virginia. And it wasn't just me saying it. there were There were those panic pieces that came out in July. I talked about those.
04:26.36
Sam Shirazi
I think there were a decent amount of Republicans in July who felt like if something didn't change, The election was probably not going to be won by the Republican Party. And I think now they have this issue. They're able to focus on it.
04:38.08
Sam Shirazi
And it's it's something, again, not a game changer, but think it's a good reminder that the election's not over until the voting starts and the votes are counted. And no one has voted yet, and the votes aren't going to be counted until November. so In any election, you don't want to assume anything. You don't want assume the outcome is predetermined.
04:57.77
Sam Shirazi
And I think this was a good reminder that there are still things that could happen in campaigns that are unpredictable, that one side is able to seize upon, and it might be able to at least temporarily give the party that is struggling in an election a boost.
05:13.88
Sam Shirazi
Now, I think the challenge the Republicans are going to have is They've kind of had this injection of energy and something to get their supporters excited about. The problem is, i mean, the election is still a little bit off. And so there's going be a lot going on nationally.
05:32.57
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, President Trump always makes news. There's going to be more things coming out of D.C. And so I think it's not clear if this level of engagement and focus on this issue can be sustained, particularly if There's a risk on the Winston-Merle Sears side that if she just keeps posting about this constantly until the election, it'll get a little bit old and the media is not going to be super interested in it anymore. And the voters are going to say, yeah, we we get we get that. We get that issue. We get your spiel. like It's time for us to maybe focus on something else.
06:04.20
Sam Shirazi
So I think that is a ah risk for the Winston-Merle Sears campaign. On the other side of things, I think the Spanberger campaign also has to be realistic that this issue will come up again.
06:14.38
Sam Shirazi
There's a debate. I think Winsor Morales-Sears will raise it in the debate. I think Spanberger should be expected to be asked about this on the campaign trail by reporters. And so i think they have to have a clear strategy to deal with this issue and have a plan to how how to respond to a question, um you know what is your position on this issue?
06:34.10
Sam Shirazi
And I think there has been... you know My sense is the Spamberg folks were hoping that maybe this would blow over or you know the focus will get shifted back to the job cuts in Virginia.
06:46.51
Sam Shirazi
And certainly that could happen, especially if other stuff happens Virginia. DC, but the reality is sometimes you just have to deal with an issue and you can't just kind of wait it out. You know, we'll see what happens here. It's possible by next week, no one even remembers this. It's also possible that this kind of becomes an issue that because the Republicans are talking about it so much continues to be on the campaign trail.
07:08.89
Sam Shirazi
And it's just something that we we're going to have to be keeping an eye on during this election. And I did want to talk about one other issue that's somewhat related And not to go too off track, but after the last election, the Democrats really had some self-reflection on their difficulty reaching voters where they were, whether that was through social media or whether that was through podcasts.
07:30.95
Sam Shirazi
know, you could argue maybe that was just a way to deflect from the larger issues they had. And it's easier to kind of blame the media or or blame voters. the mediums that people are getting their news from for the loss. But I think in any campaign, it's it's always important to remember how our voters getting information these days.
07:50.88
Sam Shirazi
And I think One thing this incident highlights is I would say the superior ability of the right to push certain narratives. And I think there is a media environment where there's certain outlets that are very – it's very easy for them to kind of push certain messages. So a good example of this is Fox News.
08:10.06
Sam Shirazi
The day after this incident, Winston Merle Sears went on Fox News, talked about this. you know There's also X, the website formerly known as Twitter. Obviously, it was bought by Elon Musk. I think previously, you know maybe a few years ago, it was more known to be a I would say, more liberal-leaning site or at least more people on there had liberal views. I think because of a lot of those people have left and the way Elon Musk has changed the website, I think you could argue it's more of a right-leaning website now. And so there's just a lot of accounts out there on X that are able to push this stuff.
08:44.26
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think the Republicans, when they see an issue that's really good for them or an incident like this, they kind of pounce. And then there's this ability... of them to just magnify the issue and just keep talking about it keep talking about it.
08:57.77
Sam Shirazi
And it's not to say that the Democrats and liberals don't have some ability to do that. I mean, obviously, if there is something big that happens, there is the Democratic side of things that is able to push messages.
09:08.80
Sam Shirazi
But I think, frankly, and you know a lot of Democrats would say this, is the the ability of Democrats to push messages, I think has not been created in such an institutional way as it has for the Republicans.
09:21.27
Sam Shirazi
I mean, if you look at something like Fox News, it is, i believe, the largest cable news network. It's still viewed by hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people. And you know I remember in 2021, Glenn Youngkin just kept going on Fox News. like Literally every night he was on Fox News.
09:36.83
Sam Shirazi
I think that helped him get his message out. That helped him with his fundraising. know I wouldn't be surprised if after this, Wintemarle Sears tries to get booked on Fox News as much as possible. I mean, it makes sense. You're getting a lot of free media. Why not try to get on Fox News as much as you can if you're a candidate, a Republican candidate?
09:52.24
Sam Shirazi
And I also think, I don't think this is going to totally overcome this issue, but I do think it's something that will chip into the margins that Spanberger has with fundraising. So if you think about Spanberger, one of the reasons everyone thought this race was going to be such a perhaps cakewalk for the Democrats is Spanberger just had so much money. And I remember in July when the fundraising numbers came out, the Republicans were really bummed out. They were you know not sure why Sears was so far behind in the money.
10:19.74
Sam Shirazi
And obviously money's important. You need to run TV ads. TV ads reaches people that sometimes traditional media and, for for example, people who don't watch the news every night, you can reach them through TV ads.
10:31.50
Sam Shirazi
Obviously now things are becoming more digital, so there's more streaming ads. I think that reaches younger voters who sometimes are more difficult to reach. So certainly you need money to run social media ads, to run different types of ads, and you know that is something that is going to help you if you're a campaign.
10:47.40
Sam Shirazi
I think... as part of this incident that happened, part of what the Winston-Murl Sears campaign is trying to do is say, all right, well, now we can get a lot of free media and or we can get a lot of social media presence on this issue.
11:00.41
Sam Shirazi
And it's getting our message in front of eyeballs. And again, i don't think this is necessarily going to erase the fundraising deficit that Winston-Murl Sears has. But I do think when you are calculating which party is getting their message across in front of viewers, you can't just look at the fundraising numbers. You also have to look at the social media side of things.
11:21.70
Sam Shirazi
And you have to look at the free local news media coverage, the free cable news media coverage. And, you know, I'll just use this example from this year of the New York City mayor's primary with Mamdani.
11:34.52
Sam Shirazi
you know you know The Cuomo campaign had a lot of money being spent on his behalf by Super PACs and Mandani just put out a bunch of social media stuff and didn't cost him a lot but got a lot of views just on social media. And so that's an example of where you can overcome some of the money issues if you have good social media presence.
11:55.52
Sam Shirazi
I do think as part of this reboot the Winston-Merle Sears campaign has done, their social media presence has been stepped up. And this incident kind of gave them the perfect opportunity to really just kind of jump on this and push this through their networks and get people talking about their campaign.
12:10.29
Sam Shirazi
i think in some ways there's a sign of life for the Virginia Republicans. This is frankly the first time I've seen any sort of sign of life for the Virginia Republicans in a while. I think they were demoralized for a decent amount of time. Now they're starting to wake up.
12:24.20
Sam Shirazi
They feel like they have a chance. there's a lot else in the campaign. We can't just pretend this one incident is the most important thing in the world, particularly if you spend a lot of time on social media.
12:34.74
Sam Shirazi
You might constantly just think, you know, this is everything that's going on is this campaign. the campaign is just this one incident in Arlington, reality is most voters are not paying attention to any of this. Most voters don't tune in until the end.
12:49.58
Sam Shirazi
think that's why Spamberger is saving a lot of our money to place ads at the very end. And i think there's also the reality that maybe voters Their top concern, like in 2024, is the economy. I talked about it last time.
13:02.74
Sam Shirazi
So while all this stuff is happening, yeah, they might be paying attention to a certain extent. like They might not really care because you know if they're having trouble paying the rent or they're having trouble you know with their job, they can't keep their job because of some of these cuts.
13:15.24
Sam Shirazi
I mean, you're not really going to focus on a lot else if your number one concern is the cost of groceries and keeping your job. And so I think in that sense, we have to be realistic about the amount of impact this might have.
13:28.38
Sam Shirazi
Certainly, it's going to cover the news cycle for the next few days. I think it's something the Republicans will want to talk about. I'm sure we'll hear about this again down the line from the Virginia Republicans.
13:38.70
Sam Shirazi
But I do think with Donald Trump in the White House specifically, He is the type of person that sucks up all the oxygen and it's very difficult to talk about anything else. And I think the Virginia Republicans found that out in 2017 when they were trying to run their own campaign. Ed gileskee e ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee, talked a lot about immigration.
13:58.82
Sam Shirazi
But the Democrats were able to successfully make that a referendum on Trump. I think for most of this year, it looked like this election would be referendum on Trump. Obviously, if that was going to happen, the Republicans were probably going to lose because Trump has negative approval in Virginia.
14:11.96
Sam Shirazi
This latest thing that happened might be an attempt by the Republicans to change the narrative, shift the focus, try to not make this a referendum on Trump. Doesn't mean it's going to work, but I think at least there's something that happened you could argue is more favorable to the Republicans because most of the stories that have been coming out this year and the headlines have been good for Democrats in Virginia, going all the way back to the issues that the Republicans were having but on their ticket. And then before that, all the doge cuts were definitely things Democrats were able to seize upon. So I think any campaign, there's going to be good times and bad times for each campaign. I think right now the Republicans feel like they have the wind at their back.
14:52.16
Sam Shirazi
But the question is, how far are they? you know Is this the type of race where they can come back or is is it already... been a while and they're just there's not a whole lot they can do. Even if they make a little bit of progress, it's just not enough for them to win this election. So all really fascinating stuff. you know The thing I like about elections is they're really unpredictable and things always happen. And I'm sure we'll get more surprises in the Virginia elections.
15:14.29
Sam Shirazi
And so I appreciate everyone who has been listening to my podcast. And hopefully I can keep doing this all the way through the election and people find it informative. But for now, this has been Federal Fallout and I'll join you next time.
4.9
1515 ratings
Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout to 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode where we will go over some news that happened Thursday evening in Arlington and just see how it might impact the campaign.
00:13.99
Sam Shirazi
Now, for full full disclosure, I don't always record my podcasts on Saturday morning when they are released. And so the full episode this week was before this incident happened and has a lot of good stuff in there, a lot of good background and into what happened. So definitely recommend listening to that one before you listen to this one.
00:32.37
Sam Shirazi
But I did want to kind of supplement that one and give you the update on what happened in Arlington. So as I had discussed in my previous podcast, The Winston-Marie Sears campaign is trying to seize on the issue of trans students in school and where they might be able to use the bathroom and locker rooms.
00:52.25
Sam Shirazi
And she came to Arlington Thursday evening to talk about this issue to the Arlington County School Board in front of them during their meeting. And you know that that happened and I think got a decent amount of attention. But there was this incident outside that happened that really was picked up buy more right-wing accounts and really pushed out there and made a decent amount of news.
01:16.51
Sam Shirazi
And so basically what happened was there was a protester outside. were large amounts of protesters outside, but this one protester who was more on the pro Trans student side brought a sign and I'm not going to read you the sign. You can Google it. But essentially, it was an inappropriate sign, made a comparison with segregation.
01:35.49
Sam Shirazi
And obviously, while people have strong opinions about this issue, I think it's it's not appropriate to really. talk about segregation in in a light way or make light of segregation, which this sign kind of basically did. So long story short, inappropriate sign.
01:51.78
Sam Shirazi
And the Republicans were able to kind of seize on that sign. And that was basically the big story because the sign also mentioned Winston Merle Sears specifically. So while her appearance at the school board was important in the sense of, you know, she came and gave her speech,
02:08.03
Sam Shirazi
I think the real news story out of this was the sign and the Democratic candidates who are running statewide all – denounced the sign and said didn't support that. And obviously this is something, you know, in the grand scheme of things is probably not the biggest story in the world, but in the Virginia elections in August was not a lot going on. This was something that I think particularly the Republicans wanted to use to maybe create some headlines for their campaign and talk about this issue that they think is a winning issue for them. And I talked about that in my previous podcast.
02:44.26
Sam Shirazi
So there's a few things going on here. um I don't think this is like a game changer that all of a sudden the race is now a tie and everything's changed overnight because of this one yeah incident that happened.
02:56.01
Sam Shirazi
But I think it shows more the Republicans really were are looking for something to turn around this race. And I think they they think this issue and then the specific incident might be able to do that.
03:07.63
Sam Shirazi
In some ways, it kind of gave the Republicans hope that they can have some sort of message or some sort of issue that their supporters will get behind. I think it was just a type of issue that...
03:20.10
Sam Shirazi
is able to get the Republicans all behind the Winston-Merle Sears campaign. And we've talked about this in the past. There was some division between the Lieutenant Governor candidate, John Reed, and Winston-Merle Sears. There's also been some division in the past between more MAGA supporters and who have not always completely supported Winston Merle Sears.
03:41.52
Sam Shirazi
But I think an issue like this, yeah kind of everyone gets behind their team. And on the Democratic side, you know they're more defensive. They don't want to obviously look like they're endorsing the message that was on the sign. So they they have to kind of put out the statements that whereas the Republicans are really going after and using this sign to kind of and make their supporters engaged in this election.
04:03.51
Sam Shirazi
So I think it was also just a good reminder that this race is not over. I think I have tried not to say that. There have been times where I certainly think the Democrats were doing well, and I think they had the advantage. And I just had to say that, frankly, that the Democrats were ahead in Virginia. And it wasn't just me saying it. there were There were those panic pieces that came out in July. I talked about those.
04:26.36
Sam Shirazi
I think there were a decent amount of Republicans in July who felt like if something didn't change, The election was probably not going to be won by the Republican Party. And I think now they have this issue. They're able to focus on it.
04:38.08
Sam Shirazi
And it's it's something, again, not a game changer, but think it's a good reminder that the election's not over until the voting starts and the votes are counted. And no one has voted yet, and the votes aren't going to be counted until November. so In any election, you don't want to assume anything. You don't want assume the outcome is predetermined.
04:57.77
Sam Shirazi
And I think this was a good reminder that there are still things that could happen in campaigns that are unpredictable, that one side is able to seize upon, and it might be able to at least temporarily give the party that is struggling in an election a boost.
05:13.88
Sam Shirazi
Now, I think the challenge the Republicans are going to have is They've kind of had this injection of energy and something to get their supporters excited about. The problem is, i mean, the election is still a little bit off. And so there's going be a lot going on nationally.
05:32.57
Sam Shirazi
Obviously, President Trump always makes news. There's going to be more things coming out of D.C. And so I think it's not clear if this level of engagement and focus on this issue can be sustained, particularly if There's a risk on the Winston-Merle Sears side that if she just keeps posting about this constantly until the election, it'll get a little bit old and the media is not going to be super interested in it anymore. And the voters are going to say, yeah, we we get we get that. We get that issue. We get your spiel. like It's time for us to maybe focus on something else.
06:04.20
Sam Shirazi
So I think that is a ah risk for the Winston-Merle Sears campaign. On the other side of things, I think the Spanberger campaign also has to be realistic that this issue will come up again.
06:14.38
Sam Shirazi
There's a debate. I think Winsor Morales-Sears will raise it in the debate. I think Spanberger should be expected to be asked about this on the campaign trail by reporters. And so i think they have to have a clear strategy to deal with this issue and have a plan to how how to respond to a question, um you know what is your position on this issue?
06:34.10
Sam Shirazi
And I think there has been... you know My sense is the Spamberg folks were hoping that maybe this would blow over or you know the focus will get shifted back to the job cuts in Virginia.
06:46.51
Sam Shirazi
And certainly that could happen, especially if other stuff happens Virginia. DC, but the reality is sometimes you just have to deal with an issue and you can't just kind of wait it out. You know, we'll see what happens here. It's possible by next week, no one even remembers this. It's also possible that this kind of becomes an issue that because the Republicans are talking about it so much continues to be on the campaign trail.
07:08.89
Sam Shirazi
And it's just something that we we're going to have to be keeping an eye on during this election. And I did want to talk about one other issue that's somewhat related And not to go too off track, but after the last election, the Democrats really had some self-reflection on their difficulty reaching voters where they were, whether that was through social media or whether that was through podcasts.
07:30.95
Sam Shirazi
know, you could argue maybe that was just a way to deflect from the larger issues they had. And it's easier to kind of blame the media or or blame voters. the mediums that people are getting their news from for the loss. But I think in any campaign, it's it's always important to remember how our voters getting information these days.
07:50.88
Sam Shirazi
And I think One thing this incident highlights is I would say the superior ability of the right to push certain narratives. And I think there is a media environment where there's certain outlets that are very – it's very easy for them to kind of push certain messages. So a good example of this is Fox News.
08:10.06
Sam Shirazi
The day after this incident, Winston Merle Sears went on Fox News, talked about this. you know There's also X, the website formerly known as Twitter. Obviously, it was bought by Elon Musk. I think previously, you know maybe a few years ago, it was more known to be a I would say, more liberal-leaning site or at least more people on there had liberal views. I think because of a lot of those people have left and the way Elon Musk has changed the website, I think you could argue it's more of a right-leaning website now. And so there's just a lot of accounts out there on X that are able to push this stuff.
08:44.26
Sam Shirazi
And so I do think the Republicans, when they see an issue that's really good for them or an incident like this, they kind of pounce. And then there's this ability... of them to just magnify the issue and just keep talking about it keep talking about it.
08:57.77
Sam Shirazi
And it's not to say that the Democrats and liberals don't have some ability to do that. I mean, obviously, if there is something big that happens, there is the Democratic side of things that is able to push messages.
09:08.80
Sam Shirazi
But I think, frankly, and you know a lot of Democrats would say this, is the the ability of Democrats to push messages, I think has not been created in such an institutional way as it has for the Republicans.
09:21.27
Sam Shirazi
I mean, if you look at something like Fox News, it is, i believe, the largest cable news network. It's still viewed by hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people. And you know I remember in 2021, Glenn Youngkin just kept going on Fox News. like Literally every night he was on Fox News.
09:36.83
Sam Shirazi
I think that helped him get his message out. That helped him with his fundraising. know I wouldn't be surprised if after this, Wintemarle Sears tries to get booked on Fox News as much as possible. I mean, it makes sense. You're getting a lot of free media. Why not try to get on Fox News as much as you can if you're a candidate, a Republican candidate?
09:52.24
Sam Shirazi
And I also think, I don't think this is going to totally overcome this issue, but I do think it's something that will chip into the margins that Spanberger has with fundraising. So if you think about Spanberger, one of the reasons everyone thought this race was going to be such a perhaps cakewalk for the Democrats is Spanberger just had so much money. And I remember in July when the fundraising numbers came out, the Republicans were really bummed out. They were you know not sure why Sears was so far behind in the money.
10:19.74
Sam Shirazi
And obviously money's important. You need to run TV ads. TV ads reaches people that sometimes traditional media and, for for example, people who don't watch the news every night, you can reach them through TV ads.
10:31.50
Sam Shirazi
Obviously now things are becoming more digital, so there's more streaming ads. I think that reaches younger voters who sometimes are more difficult to reach. So certainly you need money to run social media ads, to run different types of ads, and you know that is something that is going to help you if you're a campaign.
10:47.40
Sam Shirazi
I think... as part of this incident that happened, part of what the Winston-Murl Sears campaign is trying to do is say, all right, well, now we can get a lot of free media and or we can get a lot of social media presence on this issue.
11:00.41
Sam Shirazi
And it's getting our message in front of eyeballs. And again, i don't think this is necessarily going to erase the fundraising deficit that Winston-Murl Sears has. But I do think when you are calculating which party is getting their message across in front of viewers, you can't just look at the fundraising numbers. You also have to look at the social media side of things.
11:21.70
Sam Shirazi
And you have to look at the free local news media coverage, the free cable news media coverage. And, you know, I'll just use this example from this year of the New York City mayor's primary with Mamdani.
11:34.52
Sam Shirazi
you know you know The Cuomo campaign had a lot of money being spent on his behalf by Super PACs and Mandani just put out a bunch of social media stuff and didn't cost him a lot but got a lot of views just on social media. And so that's an example of where you can overcome some of the money issues if you have good social media presence.
11:55.52
Sam Shirazi
I do think as part of this reboot the Winston-Merle Sears campaign has done, their social media presence has been stepped up. And this incident kind of gave them the perfect opportunity to really just kind of jump on this and push this through their networks and get people talking about their campaign.
12:10.29
Sam Shirazi
i think in some ways there's a sign of life for the Virginia Republicans. This is frankly the first time I've seen any sort of sign of life for the Virginia Republicans in a while. I think they were demoralized for a decent amount of time. Now they're starting to wake up.
12:24.20
Sam Shirazi
They feel like they have a chance. there's a lot else in the campaign. We can't just pretend this one incident is the most important thing in the world, particularly if you spend a lot of time on social media.
12:34.74
Sam Shirazi
You might constantly just think, you know, this is everything that's going on is this campaign. the campaign is just this one incident in Arlington, reality is most voters are not paying attention to any of this. Most voters don't tune in until the end.
12:49.58
Sam Shirazi
think that's why Spamberger is saving a lot of our money to place ads at the very end. And i think there's also the reality that maybe voters Their top concern, like in 2024, is the economy. I talked about it last time.
13:02.74
Sam Shirazi
So while all this stuff is happening, yeah, they might be paying attention to a certain extent. like They might not really care because you know if they're having trouble paying the rent or they're having trouble you know with their job, they can't keep their job because of some of these cuts.
13:15.24
Sam Shirazi
I mean, you're not really going to focus on a lot else if your number one concern is the cost of groceries and keeping your job. And so I think in that sense, we have to be realistic about the amount of impact this might have.
13:28.38
Sam Shirazi
Certainly, it's going to cover the news cycle for the next few days. I think it's something the Republicans will want to talk about. I'm sure we'll hear about this again down the line from the Virginia Republicans.
13:38.70
Sam Shirazi
But I do think with Donald Trump in the White House specifically, He is the type of person that sucks up all the oxygen and it's very difficult to talk about anything else. And I think the Virginia Republicans found that out in 2017 when they were trying to run their own campaign. Ed gileskee e ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee, talked a lot about immigration.
13:58.82
Sam Shirazi
But the Democrats were able to successfully make that a referendum on Trump. I think for most of this year, it looked like this election would be referendum on Trump. Obviously, if that was going to happen, the Republicans were probably going to lose because Trump has negative approval in Virginia.
14:11.96
Sam Shirazi
This latest thing that happened might be an attempt by the Republicans to change the narrative, shift the focus, try to not make this a referendum on Trump. Doesn't mean it's going to work, but I think at least there's something that happened you could argue is more favorable to the Republicans because most of the stories that have been coming out this year and the headlines have been good for Democrats in Virginia, going all the way back to the issues that the Republicans were having but on their ticket. And then before that, all the doge cuts were definitely things Democrats were able to seize upon. So I think any campaign, there's going to be good times and bad times for each campaign. I think right now the Republicans feel like they have the wind at their back.
14:52.16
Sam Shirazi
But the question is, how far are they? you know Is this the type of race where they can come back or is is it already... been a while and they're just there's not a whole lot they can do. Even if they make a little bit of progress, it's just not enough for them to win this election. So all really fascinating stuff. you know The thing I like about elections is they're really unpredictable and things always happen. And I'm sure we'll get more surprises in the Virginia elections.
15:14.29
Sam Shirazi
And so I appreciate everyone who has been listening to my podcast. And hopefully I can keep doing this all the way through the election and people find it informative. But for now, this has been Federal Fallout and I'll join you next time.
3,475 Listeners
2,872 Listeners
86,763 Listeners
1,861 Listeners
11,863 Listeners
46,975 Listeners
15,494 Listeners
8,961 Listeners
10,616 Listeners
2,434 Listeners
2,235 Listeners
2,986 Listeners
1,276 Listeners
51 Listeners
47 Listeners