Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode where I will go over the results from the 11th District special election that happened this Tuesday evening in Northern Virginia in the Fairfax area.

00:17.21

Sam Shirazi

And this was the election to choose the successor to the late Jerry Connolly. And it was not a huge surprise that Democrat James Walkinshaw won this special election pretty handily.

00:28.49

Sam Shirazi

This is a deep blue district. However, I do think the margin was important, and we'll go over that with the caveat that we don't want to overextrapolate from the special election. But I do think it's interesting to think through what this special election might mean for November in Virginia.

00:43.97

Sam Shirazi

So in terms of the results, James Walkinshaw got almost a three to one margin. So he got almost 75% of the vote. This is an improvement from the Democrats' performance in this district in 2024. So Kamala Harris got about 65% of the vote in 2024 in this district.

01:02.03

Sam Shirazi

And the late Congressman Jerry Connolly in 2024 got about 66% of the vote. So obviously Democrats doing a decent amount better in this special election than they did last November.

01:13.59

Sam Shirazi

I think there's two ways of interpreting the results. So maybe the more democratic version, but ah ah interpreting these results is this is a good night for Democrats. It shows the Democrats are fired up. It shows that they want to vote. They're going to come out this November in Virginia.

01:27.48

Sam Shirazi

And it's just another and indication that they're going to do well in Virginia this year because people are frustrated by what's going on in DC and they want to send a message. So that's one interpretation of the results. I think the other interpretation of the results is that,

01:41.71

Sam Shirazi

You know, the Republican version, let's say, is, look, Democrats do well in these special elections. They have high propensity voters who show up in every election and they're really excited about voting.

01:54.02

Sam Shirazi

And so, yeah, on a random Tuesday night in September, Democrats are going to do well in a special election. However, in higher turnout elections and this governor's election, for example, will probably be a higher turnout election.

02:06.45

Sam Shirazi

Republicans are going to do fine because their base is going to show up for a competitive governor's race. Whereas for a special election and deep blue seat, sure, some Republicans didn't show up, but it's not a big deal.

02:20.12

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, I think there's a little bit of truth in both those statements. And I think, you know, I can give you my sense of what's going on with this special election. so So one open question is, how much of this was just Democrats being more enthusiastic and showing up versus people switching their vote?

02:37.44

Sam Shirazi

And I think there probably wasn't a lot of votes switching in the special election. I mean, there's no way to really know. But that's my kind of guess is that you're not seeing a lot of Trump 2024 voters all of a sudden becoming Democrats in the special election.

02:51.00

Sam Shirazi

I think the dynamic is more, there were more Democrats who came out. And so you could argue this shows some democratic enthusiasm that Democrats are more fired up to go out and vote because they're frustrated what's going on in DC and they want to send a message. I think that's true to a certain extent. I think it's less true or it's more of an open question whether there were any, how much vote switching there was that were led to risk results.

03:13.65

Sam Shirazi

Because honestly, The turnout in this election, i think, is going to be around 150,000 votes, which is a solid turnout for a special election, to be honest. But it's nowhere near the amount of people who voted in this district in 2024. So we can't just pretend like the swing is 100% due to vote switching. I think a lot of the swing is just due to differential turnout, more Democrats turning out.

03:35.89

Sam Shirazi

Part of that is enthusiasm. Democrats are more fired up and want to send a message. But I also think Democrats just generally are doing better in special elections in the Trump 2.0 era.

03:46.76

Sam Shirazi

And I also think, you know, special elections, there tends to be more male voting because of the permanent absentee list. And so that tends to help Democrats. So long story short, I think part of the equation here is some increased turnout on the Democratic side.

04:03.12

Sam Shirazi

However, you also have to take into account Northern Virginia, Fairfax County, part of the country, And part of Virginia hit hard by what's going on in D.C., the federal cuts, the cuts to federal jobs.

04:14.53

Sam Shirazi

So I do think that's probably part of the equation, given the level of it the swing that this type of district is feeling something from what's going on in D.C. And, you you know, even if it's not necessarily people switching their votes,

04:28.39

Sam Shirazi

at least there could be some people who just are really fired up and want to show up, uh, in this special election to send a message. Uh, and the open question becomes, well, if that happens, if that's true in September, is that going to be true in November? And is that going to be true across Virginia? So a lot of times in the Virginia governor's election, the side that turns out more will win the election. And it ultimately, ah ah You know, the dynamics are less about people switching their votes and more about turnout. And so if the Democrats are having more turnout, they're able to show up.

04:59.97

Sam Shirazi

That's going to be good news for the Democrats in November. And i think this special election is one indication that might happen. Now, having said that, I think you know we can't pretend it's it's anything more than just one special election in one district in September.

05:14.48

Sam Shirazi

So I don't want to necessarily say this is this means 100% Democrats are going to win big in Virginia and there's going to be a blue wave this November. But overall, I would say it's good news for Democrats.

05:26.57

Sam Shirazi

However, they shouldn't just expect to get a massive win just because they did pretty well in the special election in the 11th district. But the reason I'm probably willing to spend this much time talking about this special election is the fact that next Friday in about 10 days,

05:45.21

Sam Shirazi

is the start of early voting in Virginia. So very quickly, people are actually going to be casting ballots here in Virginia. So it's not like the special election was months and months away from the general election and for the state elections in November.

06:02.25

Sam Shirazi

So I do think it's interesting to take a look at it. think the turnout... was pretty solid with 150,000 people roughly in terms of the votes.

06:12.55

Sam Shirazi

I think that's a solid turnout for a special election. Again, far fewer than turned out in November 2024, obviously, but I think it's a pretty solid number for a special election in September.

06:24.62

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I'm going to be really curious to see what the overall turnout is in November because 2021 was actually... the state election in Virginia that had the highest turnout and the highest number of voters, at least in the modern era. So we saw a lot of turnout in 2021.

06:43.49

Sam Shirazi

Republicans certainly got out their voters and that was part of the reason that they won, but also Democrats showed up in 2021. And I think it's, it's, it'll be interesting to think about what's going to happen this November in Virginia. I think there's two possibilities. One possibility is we're going to match or even exceed 2021 turnout because both sides are really fired up.

07:01.20

Sam Shirazi

And the race is really competitive and both sides really want to show up and try to win the election. think that certainly could happen. I think there's also a possibility that the Democrats are really fired up and they feel like momentum's on their side. So you see a lot of Democratic turnout, kind of like you saw in the special election.

07:19.28

Sam Shirazi

But then the Republicans, for whatever reason, either they're demoralized or they just don't think there's a chance they're going to win, or maybe they're just not that excited Maybe the Republicans don't show up. And so actually you don't have that much turnout in November. It's more on the Democratic side. And obviously that would be good for the Democrats. But it's it's a little bit hard to tell right now. you know I think in 2017, that's basically what happened. A lot of Democrats came out.

07:45.76

Sam Shirazi

There weren't as many Republicans showing up. And so obviously Democrats did well. 2021, I think both sides came out. I would say that the Republicans did a better a job of getting out their base, but it wasn't like Democrats weren't showing up in 2021. That's why you saw so much turnout, and that's why you saw a close election, but ultimately, obviously, the Republicans were able to pull it off. So anyways, I think it's a really interesting dynamic what happened.

08:10.39

Sam Shirazi

in the special election, and I think it's going to be really interesting to see what happens this November. And honestly, we're almost there. We're almost at the start of voting. You know, they'll start September 19th, Israeli voting in Virginia. I will be covering it all, which is pretty crazy to think about.

08:26.42

Sam Shirazi

So please stick with me with the Federal Fallout podcast. Now, before I sign off, while I have everyone, this ah Saturday for the regular podcast, I have something special working for for you. So you'll have to wait and and see what that is.

08:42.74

Sam Shirazi

But given that this is the middle of the week, I did want to just check in on a couple other topics that I thought would be interesting to talk about besides the special election Australia. the 11th district.

08:52.82

Sam Shirazi

We got a new poll on Tuesday as well. So extra exciting day because we had both the special election and we had a poll from VCU. And I'll just quickly go over the numbers in the VCU poll.

09:05.08

Sam Shirazi

So for governor, it had Democratic nominee Abigail Spamberger at 49% and it had a Republican nominee Winston Merrill Sears at 40%.

09:13.60

Sam Shirazi

Lieutenant Governor Ghazala Hashmi, the Democrat, was at 45%, and the Republican John Reed was at 41%. And then for Attorney General, attorney general it had a Democratic nominee Jones and Republican nominee The incumbent, Jason Meares, at 41%.

09:32.24

Sam Shirazi

So I think this is roughly the same as some of the other polls have come that have come out. 9% Spanberger lead at the top of the ticket. i think, obviously, pretty solid number for the Democrats.

09:43.58

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger is close to 50%. In polling, 50% is kind of a magic number because once you hit 50%, it doesn't really matter what happens with the undecided because you're pretty much what you where you need to be in terms of the support you have.

09:59.40

Sam Shirazi

I did think down-ballot was pretty interesting, the fact that Jay Jones is actually up by more than Ghazala Hashmi is up. And again, this is just my gut. I think there's going to be relatively little ticket splitting, despite the Republicans kind of pinning some of their hopes on Jason Meares and thinking he might be able to hold up and possibly win this election on his attorney general race.

10:22.48

Sam Shirazi

I think the reality is that most of the polls are showing that Jay Jones has continued to lead the the attorney general race. And while he's up less than Spanberger is up is at at the top of the ticket, Jones is doing pretty well in these polls.

10:38.08

Sam Shirazi

And the reality is when people get in the polling booth, they just tend to vote one party straight down the ticket because they aren't taking the time, frankly, to really think about each office individually.

10:49.84

Sam Shirazi

That's not to say that there won't be a little bit of ticket splitting. I do think Spanberger is going to be winning by more than Hashemi or Jones. But reality is the Republicans are really hoping that Jason Mures might be able to hang on.

11:02.52

Sam Shirazi

And there really hasn't been too much evidence of that possibly happening in the polling. But again, this is one poll. It's similar to other polls that have recently come out, but Don't want to overthink it, don't want to necessarily say this is going to be the result in November. I do think it's a good sign we're getting more polls because in the summer we would get maybe a poll a month.

11:25.09

Sam Shirazi

I think we're kind of entering the time period of the campaign where we'll probably get a poll a week, which is helpful because You can kind of compare and contrast. And right now, most of the polls are showing roughly the same thing, which is Spanberger up by around 10 points.

11:42.81

Sam Shirazi

So we'll see if that trend continues. It'll be interesting to see if there's any shift either way, either to Earl Sears or to Spanberger. i think the thing that could move the dials a little bit is that Spanberger is spending a lot of money right now on ads, whereas Earl Sears just isn't. And potentially because of that, Spanberger's name ID could go up.

12:06.49

Sam Shirazi

And so you you might see a boost in her level of support in some of these pool polls because there's just so many ads. And I've seen a lot of people commenting. I've been, you know, I'm seeing a lot of Spanberger ads. Not to say that she's the only one running ads. I do think Jason Meares, for example, because he has a decent amount of money, is also running ads.

12:23.55

Sam Shirazi

But I think Earl Sears is a little bit behind in that area. And I'm sure at some point she'll start putting out her ads. And I think she's put out some, it's just the amount of money that she has to work with is a lot less than what Spanberger has to work with.

12:37.97

Sam Shirazi

All right. And one final thing to cover in this podcast, in the midweek update this week in thorough fallout, and it's not necessarily about the state elections. It's actually about the 2026 elections in Virginia, the midterms.

12:52.02

Sam Shirazi

And that was an announcement in the first congressional district by a Democrat who we've talked about before. And her name is Shannon Taylor, she is the Commonwealth's attorney or the top prosecutor in Henrico County. She ran in the Democratic primary for attorney general and she came up short, although it was a very competitive race. And I think most people thought that she did better than they were expecting.

13:16.25

Sam Shirazi

She got a solid performance in the Democratic primary for attorney general. And I think that frankly, that raised her profile and that gave her more of a a profile statewide in Virginia.

13:28.65

Sam Shirazi

And after that, primary, ah people logically thought, you know, she is the top prosecutor in Henrico County. Henrico is a big part of, at least Western Henrico, is a big part of the first congressional district.

13:42.31

Sam Shirazi

There were a lot of votes there. So maybe she would be a good person to run against the incumbent Republican Rob Whitman. And I can't imagine after that primary, she didn't get some phone calls with people encouraging her to run in the first district.

13:56.64

Sam Shirazi

And indeed, on Monday, Shannon Taylor announced that she would be running in the first congressional district. I think, you know, we'll see if she ends up being the nominee. There'll probably be a primary Frankly, I think she'll get more of the institutional support, and that tends to help people in primaries. So we'll see if she how much of a real primary she faces. But if she is the Democratic nominee, I think that will be a very interesting election next year between Shannon Taylor and Rob Whitman. I think she'll be a strong candidate against Rob Whitman. However, having said that, I do think Rob Whitman is a strong incumbent.

14:29.20

Sam Shirazi

And I think the the reality is it's just going to depend on the environment next year. How blue of an environment is going to be? I think if we're seeing a real blue wave next year the country and in Virginia, this is the type of seat that can flip.

14:42.44

Sam Shirazi

However, if it's kind of a normal election where both sides are kind of turning out and kind of a 50-50 election, i think Whitman would probably have the advantage just given that he's an incumbent. He's been there a while. So definitely a super interesting race, super interesting district. I think Taylor is going to be doing well in the Richmond suburbs around Henrico, where she's from.

15:03.80

Sam Shirazi

think Rob Whitman is going to do northern do well in the northern neck part of Virginia, which is his base. And I think he'll do well in the rural parts of the district. I think the battleground part of the district might be closer to Hampton Roads in the Williamsburg area. So super interesting race. I think the Democrats are excited that Shannon Taylor was able to enter the race. At least the national Democrats and state Virginia Democrats will see who the local Democrats choose as their nominee. But I think...

15:31.65

Sam Shirazi

National state Democrats thought that Shannon Taylor would do a good job in that race. So they're excited that she got in. And, you know, I think one thing that about these state elections is sometimes they raise the profile of candidates that don't win. And some of the names that we'll hear this year in Virginia will probably hear in the future because If they do well, they win either at the statewide level or in how some of these House of Delegates districts.

15:58.72

Sam Shirazi

It could be the start of a long career for some of them. I've talked about this before. In some of the districts, Democrats have nominated younger candidates. If there is a blue wave, it'll kind of replenish the Democratic ranks in Virginia. And some of the names we hear in the future could be coming from this election this year in Virginia. So for example, in 2017, there was a blue wave in Virginia. And 2019, there was also good year for Democrats in Virginia. And so some of the people that you see on the ballot this year came from those elections. 2017, Jay Jones was first elected to the House of Delegates. Now he's obviously the Democratic nominee for Attorney General.

16:40.14

Sam Shirazi

2019, Ghazala Hashmi was first elected to the state Senate, and now obviously she's the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. So I think these types of elections, when there's a lot of attention on Virginia, it can help raise the profile of candidates, even candidates that don't necessarily win their primary, like Shannon Taylor, I think certainly it was kind of a springboard for her to run for the first congressional district.

17:06.31

Sam Shirazi

And yeah, we'll see we'll see how that race shapes up. But obviously, we have to get through November 1st here in Virginia. So really interesting stuff, lot going on. I am excited for the start of early voting next Friday, and I will be covering it all. And I really appreciate everyone who's been listening to the podcast and who has taken the time to either review the podcast or share the podcast with their friends.

17:29.60

Sam Shirazi

I do and do appreciate it. And if you get the chance to do those things, I would also appreciate it. And thanks everyone for listening. This has been Federal Fallout and I'll join you next

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