00:00.66

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will talk to Lowell Feld who runs Blue Virginia, the go-to Democratic blog in Virginia.

00:13.78

Sam Shirazi

I find that Lowell is well regarded on both sides and people on both sides cite his blog, which I think that's usually a sign someone, if someone's more partisan, that they're good if other people on the other side are able to look at their work, because I mean, it means the other side is also interested in what they're doing. So anyways, thanks for joining me, Lowell.

00:36.08

Lowell

All Well, thanks, Sam. I appreciate you having me on. And thanks for the kind words about Blue Virginia. hope they Hope they're accurate.

00:42.90

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, you know, I appreciate you. You often allow me to post longer articles on there and you cite my work. So I always like looking at Blue Virginia, specifically on the Democratic side. I mean, you you often have, you know, really good insights and kind of scoops.

00:57.00

Sam Shirazi

And generally, i think you just have good political IQ about what's going on in Virginia. So that's why I wanted to talk to you about that and mainly want to talk about the upcoming Democratic primary. But before that, just kind of want to ask a little bit about like why you started the blog and how do you you think the roles of blogs have changed maybe since you first started Blue Virginia?

01:17.67

Lowell

Yeah, well, this will really date me, of course, and everyone can figure out you know how not young I am. I guess I should retire by this point, but know based on the on the youth movement these days. But yeah, because I started in really the heyday of the rise of the blog, political blogs, was like in the early to mid-2000s. started in 2005 with a blog called Raising Cain, K-A-I-N-E.

01:40.67

Lowell

back then to help elect Tim Kaine governor of Virginia. And were a million political blogs back then because there was no, think about a world with, I mean, it's unimaginable, right? No YouTube, no Twitter, no Facebook, no, no, and that dial up still really. So that was, that was what, you know, I got going.

01:58.86

Lowell

And what happened was, you know, John Kerry lost the, 2004 election to George W. Bush. And i mean, I was just really frustrated and and kind of like trying to figure out what I could do to stay involved.

02:11.34

Lowell

And then I was thinking about i was brainstorming with a friend of mine and we were like, what's going on Maybe something here in Virginia. It's like, wait a minute, there's an election every year in Virginia, pretty much, including the year after the presidential election. There's always an election in Virginia for governor.

02:26.78

Lowell

And so we're like, well, wait, maybe we could try something for that, you know, do a blog or whatever. And so that's how Raising Cane got going. I was working for the federal government at the time still. So I did this in my spare time.

02:38.60

Lowell

But eventually I moved, you know, I left my federal job and I, uh, co-founded the draft James Webb for us Senate movement. And then eventually I just got totally into politics and, you know, pretty much left the federal government and just did this, uh, which is maybe crazy, but, it's been interesting and, and certainly, uh,

02:59.60

Lowell

fun at times, a lot of times and rewarding. Many times there have been like, you know, some years that were terrible for Democrats and some years that were great for Democrats. And it's been, but it yeah, it's been like 20 years.

03:12.94

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, you mentioned there were used to be a lot of political blogs and i remember some of them and most of them have gone away. And and what do you think the role of your blog or blogs are today in the political environment?

03:25.84

Lowell

I mean, i you know, I think that, yeah, a lot of those political blogs, that that's where people went back then to get – if you were a hardcore political junkie, you know, that was – you couldn't go to Facebook. There was no Twitter, like I said. So political blogs were the the really the go-to place, and they they were – Very lively. And there were a bunch of them on the you know Democratic side and Republican side. But I think I think there's still I still have play a role. I mean, i just think, you know, today, like my blog, I mean, i incorporate a lot more video content, audio content, things, you know, I can upload stuff now and.

04:04.42

Lowell

seconds that would have taken me, you know, hours back then if the connection even held together. But I think it's still the hardcore political junkies to a lot of, to a large extent. I mean, the other day I went to the false church Memorial Day parade and I just know, i mean, I think just based on the reactions by people when candidates were coming up and introducing themselves the people at the parade, I don't think most people are like really follow this stuff that closely because they didn't seem to know who the candidates were. And I just think that's how it is. i mean, but so, you know, we get several thousand

04:37.01

Lowell

you know, this views per day or whatever page views per day. And so I think it's mostly people who are really following either active democratic activists or people who are in politics and and Virginia policies are following it very closely. So that's kind of who I think my core audience is for this.

04:58.98

Lowell

For me, it's an outlet to be able to sort of think globally, act locally is the way i call it. And, you know I think you can make somewhat of a difference. I'm not saying a huge difference necessarily, but if you have any chance of making any difference, it's probably more at the local and state level, I feel like, as opposed to trying to change the world.

05:19.76

Lowell

you know so i think you know over the years, we had some success with that. with We helped elect Tim Kaine, helped draft James Webb, helped him win that election, take back the U.S. Senate, whatever. he but yeah Approaching it from the local and state level you know, going that direction instead of top down, sort of more bottom up.

05:39.43

Lowell

And I mean, I've been and but you know involved with local county board races, school board races, House of Delegates races, you know, whatever. And i think at that level in a primary or even in a general election, there might only be a few thousand people voting. So, you know, if you have a a point of view and a voice and you can get that out there, i think you can have some impact. But again, it's hard to measure.

06:04.52

Lowell

and you know, but yeah, so that's, it's kind of what I've been, been up to with, with blue Virginia. I mean, it was raising Cain and I changed it eventually to blue Virginia. I didn't want it to be tied to, it wasn't specifically about Tim Cain. Initially it was, but then once he got elected, it it was more about electing Democrats and, and it was aspirational to turn Virginia blue. It wasn't blue.

06:26.58

Lowell

I still don't think it's dark blue or anything. I think it's, depends on the election year and it depends on the electorate that shows up. but yeah, blue Virginia is more like of an aspiration.

06:37.24

Lowell

Maybe one day it will all be, you know, safe blue.

06:41.33

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, in terms of the last election, so obviously after Democrats lost in 2024, there's been a lot of talk about the media environment and Democrats needing to reach people. And, you know, there's there's been a lot of, you know Democratic self-reflection because that's what Democrats tend to do.

06:57.06

Lowell

Yeah.

06:57.05

Sam Shirazi

i mean What do you think Democrats can do to fix that specific problem of maybe getting their content to more people so that they're getting the Democratic messaging out there?

06:57.18

Lowell

Yeah.

07:07.66

Lowell

I mean, there's been a lot written on this and a lot of discussion on this. I mean, the thing is that a lot of the people who are only marginally paying attention or barely not even paying attention at all, they may only get a snippet of something when they're watching a comedy show or they're watching or they're listening to a sports podcast or whatever.

07:26.100

Lowell

So, yeah, there's there's some talk now about investing money into trying to ah create the Democrats' own version of of Rogan, Joe Rogan whatever. i don't know.

07:37.48

Lowell

good luck. I'll say, I hope it works, but you know, I mean, I, I'm not, I'm not holding my breath on that, but yeah, I think to reach people, you have to go kind of where they are. I mean, I'm not sure you can draw someone who's not interested in politics or doesn't know a ton about, like they're a normal person basically. And they, they're not like us and following this stuff 24 seven. And you know, if you just start rattling off stuff about this, lg primary and ag for whatever it is they're they're not going to really even understand what you're talking about and so i mean i try to write it in an accessible way but it's still you know so i think probably have to democrats are going to have to uh the thing is what happened was over these years republicans spent a lot of money

08:23.93

Lowell

hundreds of millions of dollars probably over the many years in developing their own right-wing information ecosystem, ah whether it's on TV, radio, you know,

08:35.41

Lowell

on and the internet or whatever. And I think it, I think it worked. Um, I think it definitely helps them a lot. And Democrats just assumed that the mainstream media would kind of do the job for us. But the problem is the mainstream media doesn't do our job for us. i mean, it doesn't get out the democratic messaging the way we want it and need it to get out.

08:55.63

Lowell

the The mainstream media tries to do kind of an equivalence as two sides to everything and whatever. So one side says there's a climate crisis. The other side says there isn't.

09:08.13

Lowell

Let's debate the topic. Well, it's not really a debatable topic. But anyway, so so that's the mainstream media. and And they're trying to never offend people. Certainly they're not, they don't want to offend the right.

09:19.64

Lowell

And, and so anyway, that's where we're at with the but Democrats are kind of way behind on this because we allowed the right to spend decades building up.

09:31.26

Lowell

i mean if you go on AM radio, let's say, or FM, any radio, You're not going to get, and you hear talk talk radio, whatever. It's almost all right-leaning.

09:42.40

Lowell

There's almost no liberal content out there. i mean, there was like the famous, era infamous, I guess, Air America. And everyone points to that and says, oh, will never work. We can't have democratic...

09:53.31

Lowell

you know me because that one didn't work well maybe that was a unique case that just didn't work for a variety of specific reasons but but so yeah i mean the democratic democrats right now still kind of rely on the mainstream media and look i mean the washington post you can see what happened in 2024 they backed off even making an endorsement in the presidential race so it shows you kind of where a lot of these a lot of these people who own these media companies or papers are billionaires and they have a lot of interests and there are not they don't want to anger anyone and certainly not the person who could be elected.

10:33.95

Lowell

President and maybe go after them in some way. So, so yeah, I mean, Democrats need to invest in a variety of different approaches, I think, ah ah to reach of people wherever they are, and with different voices. And, and, you know, it's just going to be a long effort, but we got to get going with it.

10:52.58

Sam Shirazi

Well, I think that's all you know helpful background on what's going on nationally. but Obviously, we want to see what's going on in Virginia this year. So first, I wanted to spend a little bit of time just talking about the Democratic primary, because obviously, you know, you have a pretty good sense of how things are going on the Democratic side.

11:11.12

Sam Shirazi

And I guess I'll just start with the lieutenant governor's race, which has the most candidates. There's six candidates running. know, what are you seeing in terms of the lieutenant governor primary? Because that does seem like the one where there's at least a few candidates who have a shot at winning.

11:25.69

Lowell

mean, the thing is with the with both of the primaries, LG, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, there's really, there's been no public polling to speak of. What we have to go on is campaign finance numbers, and the last ones of those are from the first quarter.

11:42.81

Lowell

We'll be getting new ones soon in early June, in about a week or so a little over a week, but have some internal polls, a couple of internal polls from a couple months ago, which I really, at this point, I wouldn't even necessarily even consider anymore. But even at that time, they showed a very close race between Aaron Rouse, who's a state senator from Virginia Beach, state senator Ghazala Hashmi from the Chesterfield, Richmond area, and former Richmond mayor LeVar Stoney. Those seem to be

12:14.85

Lowell

the top three contenders. And, you know, could still be the case. i have But at this point, it's been a couple months. And at that time, almost nobody even knew who the candidates were.

12:25.31

Lowell

It was a huge undecided. and um I presume at this point, some of the, I think those top three candidates, assuming they're still the top three, are on TV. They're their're advertising. Presumably their name ID is higher.

12:38.50

Lowell

And so, we just don't, it's very hard to know, given the absence of any public polling or any, you know, object to any, anything, any poll. So we'll see the campaign finance numbers. You can see who's up on TV.

12:52.88

Lowell

are two other candidates, you know, actually three other candidates, Prince William County School Board Chair, Barbara Lateef, and Alex Bastani, who's a lawyer and labor leader, and then Victor Salgado, who's was a longtime Department of Justice prosecutor and left that job in December.

13:09.40

Lowell

And so, but i think the I think it's still between, you know, Rouse Hashmi and Stoney. And I just, you know, it's it's just very difficult.

13:18.91

Lowell

to know i mean, one thing I'll say about Democratic primaries in Virginia for since Trump was first elected, i think women have done quite well in it was like the year of the woman, quote unquote, almost every year.

13:34.41

Lowell

in the, in the, when Trump in Trump's first term. So I don't know if that's going to continue, the LG race, you do have one woman, because Allah has me running against, you know, all other five men.

13:45.06

Lowell

And so I, and I don't know, I mean, and how much are people going to be considering regional? Do they want someone make sure we get someone from Hampton roads because, or you know, cause Abigail Spanberger a woman obviously from central Virginia. So you could end up with a woman,

14:00.70

Lowell

for LG from central Virginia and also for, we haven't gotten to attorney general yet, but ah you you could we have a woman from central Virginia from, for AG attorney general as well. And so, you know, I don't know how many people are going to be voting strategically thinking we want balance. We want to make sure we have, let's say an African American on the ticket or someone from Hampton Roads.

14:21.52

Lowell

And then turnout, We just don't really know. we have the automatic ballot ballot, you know, ballots are mailed to people now automatically. And so that alone should increase the turnout from because I remember back in 2005, the first time I voted in a primary in Virginia, from it was just only the lieutenant governor and there were only like 175,000 people showed up. I mean, but we've had when they're governor primary, it's much higher. So this time it's lieutenant governor and attorney general.

14:51.29

Lowell

So, and then attorney general, you have two candidates, you know, former delegate Jay Jones from the Norfolk area, and then Henrico Cardinal's attorney, uh, Shannon Taylor. And again, no public polling.

15:01.89

Lowell

We had an internal poll a long time ago from the Taylor campaign. Uh, I wouldn't even go by that anymore. Jones has more money than Taylor, but I heard, i' I'm hearing that Taylor has been doing quite well in fundraising. I don't know. I don't have any, i just heard that.

15:18.83

Lowell

And, uh, from a good source, but whatever, um, don't know for sure. Uh, and so she's on TV, I guess as well. Jones is on TV. So yeah, that's where we're at kind of right now. And we have just till June 17th.

15:32.28

Lowell

I mean, voting is going on now and, but, the elections on June 17th. So, not that much longer, two and a half weeks,

15:39.95

Sam Shirazi

Well, whoever ends up being the nominees for the Democrats will be facing ah the Republicans, obviously, in the November general election. And I think the sense is maybe this is from because of 2017, Democrats seem pretty optimistic. They think because of what's going on in D.C. and how much of an impact that's having on Virginia, that this year is going to be a good year for Democrats in Virginia. And, you know, it it's it's hard to know.

16:06.72

Sam Shirazi

Right now, because we honestly haven't gotten a lot of public polling, and I think it's a little hard to you know jump to conclusions given the election is still like five months away. But what is your sense about how things might be looking in November?

16:19.88

Lowell

Yeah, I mean, you know, I thought Larry Sabato had a good summary of this the other day. I mean, and i mean this is nothing new necessarily, but I think he expressed it well. But of all, Virginia oi almost always, and for like this has been going on for since the early 70s, goes the opposite.

16:39.12

Lowell

and often hard opposite of whatever parties in the white house. So one exception to that was 2013 and that was barely. But other than that, I mean, and we've had some landslides too. I mean, 2009, Bob McDonald won by 18 points.

16:55.20

Lowell

Not sure that can ever happen again, but you know, Ralph Northam won by nine points in 2017. So, you know, but so Democrats are favored. know, especially also, you know, i don't know what the economy is going to look like with the tariffs and everything, but by November, by the fall.

17:12.32

Lowell

And, it's usually, you know, the motivated people who turn out to vote. And that's, I think why this happens. Whoever has their person in the white house is usually, you know, somewhat fairly content or whatever.

17:25.60

Lowell

They're not maybe angry. And angry voters, angry people, the expression goes, turn out and vote. And people who are basically satisfied don't, they tend to more stay home.

17:38.38

Lowell

And so Democrats are favored, but it's definitely not, you know, we we can't take anything for granted. Obviously we all have to do the work, run, run, you know, through the tape and all that. But I think we have a, you know, potentially um very strong ticket. I mean, the top of the ticket Spanberger, she's won some tough elections.

17:56.25

Lowell

in in a purple district when she was you know running for Congress in 2018, 2020, 2022. twenty twenty two So, you know, she knows how to win close elections, tough elections.

18:06.89

Lowell

I honestly am not impressed. I mean, I'm biased. I admit it, but I, I just look at the quality of the Republican ticket right now and the top of their ticket. And I, I'm just not super impressed. I mean, I think they've had, like, I objectively, I think Yunkin,

18:23.74

Lowell

was a strong candidate for a bunch of reasons. He had a ton of money. He didn't have profile. He didn't have a voting record, so he could be all things to all people. He hadn't said a bunch of extreme or crazy stuff in the past.

18:36.85

Lowell

You know, Spam, I mean, Winsome Earl Sears has a there I'm sure the Spamberger people have a very thick opposition research book on Winsome Earl Sears. And as you saw it earlier today, they already started rolling some of it out.

18:52.85

Lowell

on her views about abortion and contraception and other things. And so I think Democrats are in in in good shape. I mean, how big ah ah we win, Democrats win, how large the margin is will make a big difference.

19:06.49

Lowell

Now, as Larry Sabato said when he was, I mentioned Sabato, what he was saying was that the down ballot, the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General and the House of Delegates tend to be mostly just coattails off of the top of the ticket.

19:19.60

Lowell

So assuming that's the case, so however Spanberger does, if she wins by five points, 10 points, more points, whatever she ends up winning by, that's going to kind of pretty much see what he's arguing. And I tend to agree.

19:31.88

Lowell

The Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and House of Delegates candidates will kind of just follow along on those coattails. But you still need candidate quality. And, you know, each race, you know, the they don't run. i mean, they run as a ticket, but in a way they're kind of running by themselves. I mean, it's not a ticket like the president and vice president.

19:52.57

Lowell

you can You could split your ticket. I don't think we're going to see a ton of that. Just don't think that happens anymore. and so, yeah, I think that's where we're at. If Spanberger, you know, wins the election, by a decent margin, I think Democrats should win the Lieutenant governor, attorney general, and then we should pick up seats in the house of delegates as well. And, you know, know, um,

20:13.51

Lowell

Right now, it's it's very close in the House of Delegates. We had had up to 55 to 45 margin for Democrats before Youngkin was elected.

20:23.72

Lowell

Maybe we can get back to that for Democrats or maybe even a little more. I mean, interestingly, the Republican leader in the House of Delegates for a variety of reasons, seems to be moving on. And i mean I tend to think it's because, in part, he's up for a job in you know as as a U.S. attorney, but I also think that he may be reading the writing on the wall here. So I know i don't know what you think, but I think he may be... he may be looking at it and not seeing a very optimistic scenario for house Republicans going into November. So, yeah. And then, you know, I think historically there, there have been a few cases where there's been a widespread between the highest vote getter on the democratic ticket and the lowest, but yeah I just, it's possible, but most likely they'll be within a few points of each other.

21:15.60

Lowell

So, you know, unless there's like a dramatic difference in quality, uh amongst you know maybe let's say the two of the l republican lg candidate and the dem just saying it it could be anything but i i just i think mostly it's just going to be within a few points of of the top of the ticket so so that's where we're at now mostly i mean

21:37.85

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. And, you know, you mentioned that Virginia has elections every year. So let's assume the Democrats get a win this year in Virginia. you know, looking ahead to 2026,

21:48.04

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, the second congressional district going to be a target for Democrats. I mean, it's almost always ah ah battleground district, and it was very narrowly carried by Trump. So obviously, that's going to be a top target for Democrats.

22:00.98

Sam Shirazi

I did want to ask you about, but you know, feel free to talk about that district and or i'm I'm curious about the first district because the Democrats do seem to be making some moves to try to compete there.

22:01.45

Lowell

Yep.

22:13.63

Sam Shirazi

you know, i'm I'm still kind of unsure about how realistic that is given the that Trump won the district by about six points and then Whitman, the incumbent, won the district by double digits like, you know, in the teens, even though, and so overperformed Trump by a decent amount. So I think the November numbers for the governor's race in each of those districts will be helpful to get a little bit of a better sense of how competitive they're going to be in 2026. But what are your some early thoughts on Virginia in 2026?

22:43.39

Lowell

I mean, you know, assuming we have, you know, free and fair elections. I mean, I hate to even say that in a way. It sounds crazy. but But anyway, ah so and and it's hard to know what the state of the country will be. it's hard to know. But traditionally, in a midterm election...

23:00.59

Lowell

Traditionally, the party out of the White House tends to pick up seats. If there's a recession, if there's if people are very unhappy, if Trump's approval rating is, let's say, low 40s or thirty s or whatever it is, Democrats should do well. And if Democrats do pick up seats in you know November 2026 Virginia here,

23:22.99

Lowell

I mean, the two districts that the Democratic national people seem to be targeting are the second, which is in the Hampton Roads area. That's Jen Kiggins is the Republican who, you know, is the Congresswoman there. i mean, she but she ousted the Democratic Congresswoman, Elaine Luria.

23:41.73

Lowell

And so, you know, that's flipped back and forth ah ah in in the second. And then in the first that Whitman's been there a long time. But I guess the National Democrats are seeing like what you're seeing and what you're saying is that the, there's some sign of the first congressional district, maybe slowly, but surely, or I don't know if it's fast, but at least slowly, but surely moving more edging towards maybe a more purplish direction. I don't know. And the other thing is, of course, these, these Congress people are taking votes like Kiggins and Whitman just voted for this Republican budget, this house budget, which would slash Medicaid and,

24:18.55

Lowell

rack up, you know, crank up the deficit. and And mean, this is by the Congressional Budget Office. They can claim whatever they want, but the Congressional Budget Office is the definitive, you know, a referee on that. And so, ah you know, they're going to have to run on that.

24:32.01

Lowell

And that's to be that's going to be kind of tough in districts that depend heavily on ah the the federal government, the military, whatever it is. the Hampton Roads certainly is one of those districts.

24:44.15

Lowell

And the first as well has a lot of federal employees. And, um know. So, and then, I mean, an outside one would be, I guess, the fifth, but that's, that's tougher. I guess that's John McGuire, very hard right. He defeated Bob Good, who was a very hard right.

24:59.09

Lowell

But, you know, so right now I think it's probably the first and and the second. You also have, we also have a U Senate race in Virginia in 2026. Mark Warner will be up and he's definitely sounds like he's running for reelection and, you know, we'll see if there's any primary or anything, but,

25:16.84

Lowell

i you know I don't know of anything right now. but yeah, he would be, i presume, the favorite. We'll see if Yunkin, maybe, i don't think he will, but he could throw his hat in the ring for U.S. Senate in 2026. But I think he's more thinking about president in 2028.

25:35.48

Lowell

So yeah, there's some things to keep an eye on, definitely, in 2026. But a lot you know lot can change between now And 2026, the economy, obviously Trump's approval rating in Virginia and a million other things could happen.

25:50.96

Lowell

it's ah ah It's an eternity. Like, so it's interesting to speculate, but those are the districts, the second and first that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is like, you know, targeting right now, subject to change.

26:04.30

Sam Shirazi

Well, I know you will be covering it all, and i appreciate you coming on the podcast to give people the perspective from your end where you're you're living and breathing this stuff every day on Blue Virginia. And so I definitely recommend people to check out that blog in the run-up to the Democratic primary and obviously all the way up until November because I do think it's a really good source of info, particularly if you're a Democrat. I think...

26:26.19

Sam Shirazi

ah If you're Republican, there's also good stuff there. But some of the things Lowell says might they may might not be what you're looking for. But i I think it's good. yeah There's a lot of good stuff that he's able to to find and put on there. So anyways, thanks again for joining me. And, you know, I'm sure we'll see you on Blue Virginia.

26:45.16

Lowell

right. Thanks a lot, Sam. All right. Take care.

26:47.52

Sam Shirazi

Thanks. And this has been a Federal Fallout. And I'll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com