It’s one of the most fascinating questions developing in the American EV market right now. For months, we've been bombarded with dire predictions about what would happen when the federal EV tax credit for new and used EVs expired on September 30th, 2025.

Industry titans lined up to tell us the sky was falling. The CEO of Ford predicted the market would collapse from 10% to just 5%. General Motors executives warned of a "sharp decline." Analysts at major firms forecast a devastating crash that would set electric vehicle adoption back years.

Well, I may be an idiot podcaster without the infinite access to world-class market analysis that CEO’s have, but it's now a month on and the predicted apocalypse hasn't materialized.

In fact, what we're seeing is a masterclass in how markets adapt, how manufacturers respond, and how resilient consumer demand for electric vehicles has actually become.

Today's episode is going to challenge the doom-and-gloom narrative that's dominated headlines for the past few months

We're going to look at the actual data from the first three weeks of October, examine the creative ways automakers are keeping EVs affordable without federal help, and draw lessons from other major markets like Germany and the UK that went through similar transitions and came out stronger on the other side.

Before we dive in, let me be clear: I'm not saying the loss of the $7,500 tax credit is meaningless. It's a significant change. But what I am saying is that the predictions of total market collapse were overblown, or at the least premature. The evidence is mounting that the American EV market is far more mature and resilient than the naysayers believed.

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