Bulls, Bears & BS

The Fed cut rates by 0.5% last week. Many commentators are seeing this as a signal that the economy is in recession. We completely disagree. In this week's episode, Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA outlines why this time "is different" and what it means for risk assets, particularly stocks. Graham also provides a macro framework for the next 18 months, as well as where he sees stocks going before this bull market ends.

Finally, Graham dives into gold's recent price spike, placing it in the context of two potential outcomes for what is happening in the financial system today. If you're concerned that inflation might be returning, and want to learn about some of the potential warning signs Graham sees that this might be the case, you won't want to miss this week's episode!

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Following the "growth scare" of late July/ early August, stocks have discounted an economy that will keep growing and a Fed that is about to start cutting rates. Today, the S&P 500 is at all-time highs with the Fed expected to cut rates by at least 0.25% at 2PM EST.

However, with the Presidential election looming and the Fed already in the crosshairs for former President Trump, a lot can change between now and year-end. In this week's broadcast our host and Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA delves into why this business cycle is unlike any other, why so many recession indicators are wrong, and where he expects stocks to go by the end of the year.

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The Sahm Rule has  triggered, igniting concerns that a recession has arrived. But is this just another false positive in the current unusual business cycle... or is the economy actually rolling over? Moreover, are stocks about to crater into a prolonged bear market... or is this an opportunity to buy the dip

We address all of these issues in this week's episode.

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Inflation came in cooler than expected this week. This has opened the door to the Fed cutting rates sooner than expected as rates are at 5.5% while inflation is now at 3%. This is extremely bullish for stocks as even lagging indices (the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000) are finally catching a bid.

In simple terms, there is NOTHING bearish in the stock market right now. And our clients are profiting beautifully from it. We delve into all of these items in this week's episode as well as how you can use our research to boost your portfolio returns. 

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Stocks have closed at new all-time highs in four of the last five weeks. But the economic data has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Estimated GDP growth for the second quarter cratered from 3% down to 1.5% in the last two weeks. And the unemployment rate is now ticking higher, suggesting a potential Sahm Rule Trigger which would mean a recession has arrived.

Is this the real deal... or is it just another false positive for recession indicators? We dive into all of that this week, along with our forecast for stocks heading into the second half of the summer.

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Stocks just hit new all-time highs, but I anticipate a growth scare to trigger a MAJOR buying opportunity within the next six weeks.

One of the most accurate predictors of a recession is the Sahm Rule. And I believe we'll get darn close to a Sahm Rule trigger sometime before August 10th. When this happens, the investment world will panic, pushing stocks down possibly as low as 4,900 on the S&P 500.

When that happens, it's time to BACK UP THE TRUCK.

I explain why in this week's episode.

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Is a recession about to unfold, crushing stocks?

The calls for a recession are growing by the week. However, for those focused on making money from the markets, it's important to note that things are in fact different this time: the pandemic and subsequent monetary/fiscal interventions have badly warped the economic data in the U.S. 

As a result of this, a number of metrics that have previously predicted recessions might in fact be WRONG this time around.  This week we delve into the data in the U.S., what it's likely to state in the coming weeks, and what that means for your portfolios.

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The market is sending us clear signals that is it focused on the inflation data, which is trending down. This, combined with a drop in Treasury yields, is signaling disinflation. What does this mean for stocks going forward? And are the recessionary signals people are so worked up about on social media REALLY worth paying attention to? We cover all of this in this week's episode. If you've got money in the markets, you WON'T want to miss it!

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The macro picture is shifting from higher growth and inflation to lower growth and disinflation. This will benefit certain key sectors and open the door to additional profits for those who play this right. However, in the big picture, stocks remain in "risk on" as there are ZERO red flags or signals of systemic risk in the financial system today.

Don't overthink it, profit from it!

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This week we dive into the probabilities aspect of investing... and why you should NEVER bet the farm on a crash. We also explore AI from a technological and historical framework using the build out of the Internet in the late '90s as a reference point.

If you're interested in making money from the markets... and navigating AI from an investment perspective, you NEED to hear this.

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