Bulls vs. Bears

Bulls vs. Bears

By MPC MarketsBusinessInvesting
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Bulls vs. Bears episodes

  • Earnings Season Podcast Series August 2024 part 1

    August 2024 is here, and the ASX earnings season is about to reveal the winners and losers of the market. Whether you’re looking to capitalize on rising stars or avoid the pitfalls of underperformers, our exclusive webinar series is your key to staying ahead.

    17 min
  • Episode 29: Slowing growth arrives to shut down the equities party

    ResMed (RMD) – Shares rallied 1.5% after quarterly revenue rose 9% to $1.2 billion in FY24 Q4. Dividends increased to 53¢ per share, driven by strong sales of breathing devices, masks, and software.

    Fortescue (FMG) – Shares declined as JPMorgan sought buyers for $1.9 billion in stock post-Monday. Investor concerns include C-suite instability, rising costs, and slumping iron ore prices, with shares down 30.8% YTD.

    Rio Tinto (RIO) – Reported a $5.8 billion profit after tax for H1, driven by $12.1 billion in underlying earnings. CEO focuses on expanding lithium and copper divisions for future growth, particularly in Latin America.

    Rex Airlines – Entered voluntary administration, leading to 360 immediate job cuts and grounding of all Boeing 737 flights. Potential acquisition by PAG as regional services face uncertainty.

    Trade of the Week: Monash IVF (MVF) – Entered at $1.35 with a target price of $1.55. The stock is range-bound, with earnings expected on August 20, 2024. A 15% trailing stop is set at $1.20.

    43 min
  • Episode 28: Earnings Misses Spark a Tech Wreck

    Mineral Resources (MIN) – Shares surged after a 9% increase in FY24 production to 269 Mt. Key activities included a $1.3B sale and a 40% rise in spodumene concentrate production.

    Flight Centre (FLT) – Shares fell after revising PBT guidance to $316M-$324M, excluding $4M in losses from Discova Central Americas’ closure. FY24 TTV expected to match FY19 at $23.7B.

    Macquarie Group (MQG) – FY25 Q1 results “broadly in line” with the prior year. Asset management and BFS profits stable, offset by lower net profit in CGM and Macquarie Capital.

    Nine Entertainment (NEC) – Shares dipped as staff at major publications voted to strike for five days, potentially affecting Olympic coverage.

    Trade of the Week:

    Northern Star Resources (NSR) – Undervalued compared to peers based on a relative value model. Reallocating 5% of our gold sector investment to NSR for better value and growth potential.

    38 min
  • Episode 27: Sun starts to set on tech rally

    Strong Australian employment data fuels speculation of an August rate hike, impacting various sectors.

    • Fortescue Metals – Shares fell 2.3% following the announcement of 700 job cuts and a shift from its green hydrogen plans due to high energy costs and limited demand. The company focuses on renewable electricity and continues clean energy projects.
    • Electro Optic Systems Holdings – Reported a 92% increase in unaudited revenue for the first half of 2024, driven by production and expansion in EM Solutions and Space Technologies. Despite a cash balance reduction, the company improved cash flow.
    • DroneShield – Experienced a dramatic two-day share price plunge, losing over $800 million in value due to valuation concerns and short-selling activities. Despite its first profit in 2023, investor concerns over its high valuation spooked the market.
    • Aussie Broadband – Launched a new value market brand, Buddy Telco, with a $10 million marketing campaign. Despite positive FY25 EBITDA guidance, shares fell 16.5% amid competitive pressures. Buddy targets 100,000 customers within three years with a digital-first, self-service model.

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      Trade of the Week:

      Real Estate Fixed Coupon notes remain attractive amid market volatility. These structured investments offer stability and potential growth with high-quality Australian REITs and a fixed coupon of 10.1%.

      43 min
    • Episode 26: Fed fuels optimism on soft landing

      Fed Chair Powell and Lower inflation data fueled optimism of September rate cuts, sparking a shift back into small-caps

      • Incitec Pivot – Shares dropped 1.2% after ending talks with Indonesia’s PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur for its fertilisers business sale. The company will continue to manage its Dyno Nobel explosives and fertilisers businesses separately and plans a $900 million stock buyback.
      • BHP – BHP will suspend nickel mining, risking thousands of jobs in Western Australia and causing tension with the Albanese government. The decision, due to a $450 million expected loss from a global nickel oversupply, affects about 2000 workers, with 1600 jobs guaranteed and 400 retained in hopes of a market recovery by 2027.
      • ANZ – ANZ is investigating workplace misconduct and inappropriate trading in its markets division, with the corporate regulator examining potential manipulation of government bond prices.
      • Uranium Stocks – Uranium stocks surged after Kazakhstan announced higher extraction taxes for 2025-2026, reducing supply growth from Kazatomprom. Paladin Energy, Boss Energy, and Deep Yellow saw shares rise 4-6%, driven by positive long-term prospects for uranium due to energy security and decarbonisation efforts.

        • Trade of the Week

        The AI rally (or bubble, whatever your opinion) has dominated fund flows, and given a sense of optimism, despite the rest of the market underperforming. But, as markets involve human beings and their emotional sentiment, its inevitable the novelty wears off the initial AI winners and eyes turn to “what’s next?”

        40 min
      • Episode 24: EOFY Tax Selling Unveils Bargains

        Equities saw mixed performance this week, with AI mega caps hitting record valuations, despite broader market weakness and a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve.

        Stock Highlights

        • Insurance Sector: Suncorp (SUN) and Insurance Australia Group (IAG) experienced significant developments. Suncorp's sale of its banking arm to ANZ Group was seen as a positive move, enabling it to focus on general insurance. IAG announced major new reinsurance partnerships, marking a significant transaction for the company.

        • Collins Foods (CKF): Reported a 0.8% decline in same-store sales for May and June. Interim CEO Kevin Perkins expects challenging conditions to persist into 2025 due to higher mortgage rates, rents, energy bills, and inflation.

        • Bannerman Energy (BNM): Launched a $76 million share placement to support its Etango project in Namibia. This move aims to capitalize on the rising demand for uranium amid a global shift towards nuclear energy and interest in decarbonizing power grids.

        • ResMed (RMD): Shares plunged over 13% after Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug tirzepatide showed significant reductions in obstructive sleep apnoea severity, renewing concerns about the impact on ResMed's market.

          • Trade of the Week

          • Fortescue Metals Group (FMG): Entry price at $21.60 with a target price of $30 and a 15% trailing stop loss. Fortescue is currently undervalued, presenting a favorable entry point due to the recent sell-off. This trade aims to capitalize on the potential price recovery and yield advantage offered by FMG, leveraging its strong fundamentals and growth prospects.
            • 39 min
          • Episode 23: Nvidia becomes worlds most valuable... for a day

            Equities saw mixed performance this week, with AI mega caps hitting record valuations, despite broader market weakness and a cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve.

            Stock Highlights

            • Dexus (DXS): Dexus announced a valuation decrease of approximately $1.3 billion, or 9%, in its portfolio, driven by declines in office properties due to higher capitalisation and discount rates.

            • Guzman y Gomez (GYG): Shares surged 36% on the first trading day, reaching a market cap of $3 billion. This marks the largest local float in three years and has boosted optimism in the listings market.

            • Tabcorp (TAH): Gillon McLachlan, former AFL CEO, has been appointed as the new CEO of Tabcorp, starting August 5, pending regulatory approval.

              • Trade of the Week

              • Physical Silver ETF (ETPMAG): Silver is recommended due to its strong performance driven by a weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) and its role as both a precious and industrial metal. Entry price at $41.25 with a target price of $65 and a 15% trailing stop loss.


                • 46 min
              • Episode 22: AI stocks surge while the rest burn

                The AI Mega Caps surge, while the rest of the world burns. Equities were dragged record highs by 2 stocks this week, masking the underlying weakness in the rest of the market and the effect of a more hawkish than expected Fed meeting.

                38 min

              About Bulls vs. Bears

              From the publisher's feed

              Bulls vs Bears is a weekly Australian stock market podcast from MPC Markets. Every Friday, Mark Gardner, Jonathan Tacadena, and Kai Chen wrap up the week in markets, what moved, what mattered, and…