Bulls vs. Bears

With all the talk of statistics in relation to the equity market move after the first rate cut, history is not on the side of a bullish move after the Fed’s first rate cut was 50bps, with the last 2 occasions seeing the S&P500 fall 39% and 54% over the following 12-18 months and the Fed underestimating the spike in unemployment by half. Both occasions ended in a recession. However, this time the Fed seem to more ahead of the curve than in 2001 & 2007 which may result in a softer landing than previous occasions. Below show the market move if a recession is avoided

Gold has surged to record highs, breaking out of its recent consolidation range. The precious metal is now trading around $2,570, driven by optimism that the US Federal Reserve will make significant interest rate cuts next week

This breakout was anticipated by Jonathan Tacadena earlier in the week. On Wednesday’s “The Trade” segment, Jonathan highlighted the drop in historical volatility in Spot Gold over the last few weeks, indicating an increased chance of a volatility spike

Catch up on the week in markets with MPC

ASX earnings

AMP (AMP) – AMP delivered strong results, focusing on cost management and strategic partnerships, while enhancing shareholder returns and strengthening its balance sheet.

Audinate (AD8) – Audinate saw robust growth but anticipates a transitional year as it shifts toward software solutions, which may temporarily impact revenue.

Woodside Energy Group (WDS) – Woodside’s shares dropped following a major acquisition in clean ammonia, with mixed market reactions on its timing and potential returns.

QBE (QBE) – QBE’s profitability surged, driven by lower catastrophe costs and premium growth, leading to higher dividends and a streamlined portfolio.

Trade of the Week: Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – Whitehaven is highlighted due to rising coal prices and strong export demand, presenting a value opportunity in the current market.