Trump's late-week announcement that US forces would hit Iran "extremely hard" for the next two to three weeks — rather than exit — sent markets sharply lower, with crude oil spiking toward $106 and the NASDAQ futures falling nearly 2% by Thursday afternoon. Mark, JT, and Kai work through a volatile week where risk-on/risk-off sentiment flipped multiple times on Trump headlines, review the Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, and assess what Australia's diesel supply constraints could mean if the conflict extends beyond expectations.

Key Points

Trump reversed market expectations by pledging to intensify strikes on Iran rather than withdraw, with crude oil surging past $105 and pushing toward $106 during the recording.

All weekly equity gains — across US, European, and Australian markets — were effectively wiped out within hours of the announcement, illustrating how eight-hour windows are now defining market direction.

End-of-quarter window dressing fuelled a misleading Tuesday night NASDAQ rally of ~4%, partly driven by Western media cutting the Iranian president's peace comments short of their full conditional context.

US payrolls data is scheduled for release on Good Friday when markets are closed, creating an information gap that investors should account for before the long Easter weekend.

Australia's diesel supply situation is a growing concern, with the team noting it would take approximately 31 days to recover accumulated deficits if Hormuz disruption continues — and flagging the possibility of rationing measures within weeks.

MPC Markets' Prism Portfolio Guardian tool has received strong client feedback after six to eight reviews completed this week, with the team also highlighting the Mosaic platform's Iran War dashboard as a daily pre-market resource.

In episode 112 of Bulls vs. Bears, hosts Jonathan Takadena and the team deliver a sharp, tongue-in-cheek update amid escalating global tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, volatile markets, and a chaotic news cycle dominated by unverified Trump statements. They dissect sharp moves in oil, equities, bonds, and commodities, highlight Australia's worsening fuel crisis (exacerbated by a cyclone knocking out LNG supply), discuss sector rotations including a lithium/EV rebound, Meta/Google legal setbacks, and AI/memory chip impacts, while sharing their current bullish/bearish market views and introducing Mosaic’s new automated portfolio review tool.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s repeated claims of progress on Iran deals have an extremely low truth rate (~20%), with multiple statements on tankers, negotiations, and strikes proven false or exaggerated by satellite data and Iranian responses.

Oil prices have surged dramatically while bond yields spiked viciously; equities have held up surprisingly well so far but risk catching up to energy and food price pressures.

Australia is facing one of the world’s worst fuel crises, with reports of 500+ service stations out of diesel, soaring prices near $3+, and 30% of LNG supply disrupted by a cyclone.

Lithium and EV-related stocks bounced strongly as petrol/diesel shortages drive demand for electric vehicles, making Tesla and BYD owners appear prescient while traditional fuel users feel the pinch.

Meta and Google shares were hit after a landmark case where a plaintiff successfully sued over social media’s addictive design contributing to mental health issues, raising risks for their core business model.

The hosts remain positioned for higher oil and gold (short fiat), note Bitcoin holding steady on real demand but needing “degen” hype to rally further, and see potential buying opportunities in equities if they test key support levels around NASDAQ 6000.

In this episode of Bulls vs Bears Jonathan, Mark and Kai discuss the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict dominating markets, with oil prices surging amid attacks on key energy sites like South Pars, the Pentagon's massive $200 billion funding request signaling a prolonged engagement, and Trump's unpredictable diplomacy including threats to flatten adversaries and awkward diplomatic moments. They analyze bearish technical signals in equities (S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average), the impact of quadruple witching options expiry potentially unleashing downside volatility, private credit liquidity strains and withdrawal caps at major firms like Blackstone, gold's underperformance despite geopolitics due to higher-for-longer rates and liquidation pressures, and sector rotations favoring energy while pressuring growth assets. The team shares a custom Mosaic analysis estimating conflict duration (base case through late June) and asset implications, while remaining predominantly bearish on equities short-term amid macro uncertainty and limited catalysts for reversal.

Key Summary Points:

• The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has driven sharp rises in oil and gas prices, with attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure like Iran's South Pars field and retaliation against Gulf hubs.

• Technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned solidly negative, including a close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-2025, signaling broader market weakness.

• Quadruple witching options expiry is expected to remove protective put hedging, potentially allowing greater volatility and a downside move in equities next week.

• Private credit faces isolated but notable stress, with record withdrawal requests leading firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl to cap redemptions amid liquidity concerns.

• Gold has underperformed typical geopolitical safe-haven rallies due to expectations of persistent high interest rates from oil-driven inflation and recent heavy two-year gains prompting profit-taking.

• The team estimates the conflict's most probable end date around late June 2026 based on multiple factors including asymmetric warfare dynamics and political pressures, with energy sectors benefiting while broader risk assets remain vulnerable.

One of the most turbulent weeks in global markets in years. The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG flows — sending Brent crude above $100 for the first time since August 2022, with oil up approximately 50% in just six sessions. The IEA has called it the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

This week we break down:

• The Hormuz Crisis — what happened day by day and what comes next
• Stagflation fears — a shock US jobs report shed 92,000 jobs just as oil surged
• The $1.8 trillion private credit crunch — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank all caught in the crossfire
• ASX and global market movers — winners, losers, and where to position
• Bear vs Bull case scenarios for what happens from here

Key stories this week: Oracle surged 7% on 84% cloud growth, Adobe CEO Narayen resigned after 18 years, Bumble jumped 34% on its AI matchmaker launch, Goldman warned Brent could hit $147.50+, and the RBA is 62% priced for a hike on 17 March.

Oil chokepoints, KOSPI chaos, and a shock SaaS comeback: this Bulls vs Bears episode unpacks how a tiny stretch of water can blow out inflation, why Korea’s market is going ballistic, and how beaten‑up software just became the only green on the screen, plus a sneak peek at our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat framework.

Takeaways

The 33km Strait of Hormuz is a ticking time bomb for oil and inflation.

Venezuela’s “extra” barrels barely cover a few days of lost Gulf supply.

Fuel warning: why you should lock in petrol prices now.

Inside Korea’s KOSPI: Samsung, SK Hynix and the world’s wildest retail options market.

SaaS was the only real green this week while the Nasdaq went nowhere.

​The “SaaSpocalypse” is over – quality software still has big upside.

​We reveal our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat playbook ahead of a free webinar.

In Bulls vs Bears Episode 108, MPC Markets, Kai Chen, and Jonathan (JT) explore the sharp recovery in battered SaaS and software stocks as the overhyped AI-disruption narrative corrects to reality. The ASX hit fresh record highs at month-end, powered by BHP’s transformation into a major copper play and standout earnings from Woolworths, while US indices stayed choppy despite Nvidia’s solid results. The team highlights real-world AI wins at WiseTech and Block, flags emerging risks (hacks, rogue bots, AI-generated fraud), unveils their new Agentic AI Threat Map identifying high-moat survivors, and weighs in on serious Middle East tensions with massive US carrier deployments.

Key Takeaways

1. ASX at Record Highs – Australian shares outperformed globally, led by BHP (now viewed primarily as a copper company) and strong retail results from Woolworths.

2. SaaS Rebound Accelerates – WiseTech jumped ~17% and Block surged 26% after major AI-driven staff cuts, showing the market rewarding genuine efficiency gains.

3. AI Narrative Correction – Extreme “AI will kill all software” fears are easing, but new stories of security breaches, rogue chatbots, and AI-generated mortgage fraud signal the hype cycle is maturing.

4. Agentic AI Threat Map Launched – MPC’s new interactive framework rates 45+ software stocks by disruption risk; top resilient names include ProMedicus (PME), Veeva (VEEV), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), WiseTech (WTC), and Technology One (TNE).

5. The 5 Moat Pillars – Proprietary data, regulatory barriers (e.g. FDA), complex problem-solving, strong business models, and domain expertise are the key reasons these companies are expected to thrive alongside AI.

6. Commodities on Fire – Silver +13.5% (5 days), copper and lithium also rallying hard after Zimbabwe’s export ban; gold continues its steady climb.

In this week's episode, the MPC Markets team discusses a quiet but eventful market week overshadowed by escalating US military positioning around Iran, a rebound in select Australian stocks (notably Telix up 14%), signs of sector rotation in the US (Russell 2000 strength), ongoing SaaS sector pressure from AI disruption, and a deep dive into which software companies may survive or thrive long-term. They also cover strong performances in gold miners, banks, and resources on the ASX, while expressing serious concern about potential conflict with Iran over the weekend.

Key Takeaways

• Geopolitical tension spikes — Significant US naval buildup (multiple carrier groups, destroyers) near Iran has markets on edge; the informal “Pizza Index” (DoCon level) remains low but shows early unusual activity around the Pentagon.

• Telix (TLX) surges 14% — Strong CEO interview, recent approvals in China & Europe, multiple Phase 3 trials underway, high short interest (~12%), and analyst targets pointing toward $22+ provide relief and momentum.

• Australian market resilience — Banks (NAB, CBA), major miners (BHP, Rio), and Newmont outperformed despite a subdued week; ASX touched intraday record highs driven by resources and financials.

• SaaS sector under pressure (“SaaSpocalypse”) — AI threatens seat-based models with low moats (e.g. HubSpot seen as heavily at risk); companies with deep data moats, high-stakes accuracy needs (medical, government, compliance), sticky contracts, or large distribution scale fare better.

• AI heat-map highlights survivors — Top-rated names include cybersecurity firms, medical/research platforms (e.g. Viva), logistics-heavy players like WiseTech, and roll-up acquirers like Constellation Software; Salesforce and Xero viewed as more vulnerable.

• Gold remains steady near US$5,000/oz → Miners are highly profitable at current levels despite a stronger USD and absent Chinese buying during New Year.

• Crude oil nears US$65/bbl amid Middle East risks; potential weekend developments could drive volatility in energy and broader risk assets.

• Upcoming catalysts — Nvidia & Salesforce earnings, Australian CPI + RBA’s Michelle Bullock speech, multiple Fed speakers, and PCE data could move markets significantly; bearish technicals on US indices add caution short-term.

This week, Kai Chen and Jonathan unpack the “SaaSpocalypse” — the sharp sell-off in global software and SaaS stocks as AI disruption fears collide with volatile markets. They cover surging Australian bank earnings, record equity index levels, and why Asia (especially Japan) is emerging as a relative bright spot. The discussion dives deep into whether AI is truly “eating software,” the overlooked value of data, distribution, and moats, and how algorithm-driven narratives may be amplifying fear. Plus, insights on commodities, gold’s resilience, AI hallucinations, and whether beaten-down quality tech names now present a long-term opportunity.

Bulls vs Bears episode 105 breaks down how AI hype and Anthropic's latest statements have flipped the market narrative on tech and AI leaders, triggering a sharp rotation out of the Mag 7 into defensives, value, and non‑US markets, alongside extreme volatility in metals, crypto, and key indices.

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Key takeaways

AI stocks sold off despite strong earnings – The Mag 7 mostly beat expectations but the market used good news as an exit opportunity, showing sentiment has shifted from bullish to "sell into strength."

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CapEx shock and Anthropic fears – Massive AI spending announcements and Anthropic's claim that software engineers could disappear in 6–12 months spooked investors and drove the AI sector selloff.

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Big rotation away from US tech – Money is moving from US tech into value stocks, emerging markets, and defensives like Costco, Walmart, and Berkshire Hathaway.

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Historic silver crash – Silver dropped ~40% in a week, the biggest move since 1921, while gold, platinum, and Bitcoin also saw extreme declines suggesting forced selling.

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NASDAQ flashing rare warning signals – Weekly technical indicators hit "sell" for the first time since early 2023, raising risk of a 25% correction from highs.

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Team shifting to risk-off mode – Moving clients toward 40–50% cash, taking profits in miners, and only buying Aussie tech in small increments via dollar-cost averaging.

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In this episode of Bulls vs Bears, Mark and Jonathan discuss the unprecedented volatility in the markets during January, highlighting significant events such as three Six Sigma occurrences in major assets like gold and silver. They explore the shifting strategies in precious metals and mining stocks, the divergence in tech stocks, and the anticipation surrounding the upcoming earnings season. The conversation also touches on geopolitical tensions and their impact on market sentiment, concluding with a cautious outlook for the future amidst ongoing volatility.

Takeaways

• January has seen unprecedented market volatility with significant price movements.

• Three Six Sigma events occurred in major assets this month, indicating extreme market conditions.

• The volatility in precious metals is leading to strategic shifts in investment approaches.

• Tech stocks are experiencing a divergence in performance compared to the US market.

• Earnings season is approaching, with expectations for mixed results across sectors.

• Geopolitical tensions are influencing market sentiment and trading strategies.

• Investors are advised to remain cautious amidst the current volatility.

• Cash positions are becoming increasingly important in uncertain markets.

• The market's ability to shift sentiment quickly is notable, with both bullish and bearish trends.

• January 2023 is one for the record books, with rapid changes in market dynamics.