Bulls vs. Bears

One of the most turbulent weeks in global markets in years. The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of the world's oil and LNG flows — sending Brent crude above $100 for the first time since August 2022, with oil up approximately 50% in just six sessions. The IEA has called it the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

This week we break down:

• The Hormuz Crisis — what happened day by day and what comes next
• Stagflation fears — a shock US jobs report shed 92,000 jobs just as oil surged
• The $1.8 trillion private credit crunch — Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank all caught in the crossfire
• ASX and global market movers — winners, losers, and where to position
• Bear vs Bull case scenarios for what happens from here

Key stories this week: Oracle surged 7% on 84% cloud growth, Adobe CEO Narayen resigned after 18 years, Bumble jumped 34% on its AI matchmaker launch, Goldman warned Brent could hit $147.50+, and the RBA is 62% priced for a hike on 17 March.

Oil chokepoints, KOSPI chaos, and a shock SaaS comeback: this Bulls vs Bears episode unpacks how a tiny stretch of water can blow out inflation, why Korea’s market is going ballistic, and how beaten‑up software just became the only green on the screen, plus a sneak peek at our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat framework.

Takeaways

The 33km Strait of Hormuz is a ticking time bomb for oil and inflation.

Venezuela’s “extra” barrels barely cover a few days of lost Gulf supply.

Fuel warning: why you should lock in petrol prices now.

Inside Korea’s KOSPI: Samsung, SK Hynix and the world’s wildest retail options market.

SaaS was the only real green this week while the Nasdaq went nowhere.

​The “SaaSpocalypse” is over – quality software still has big upside.

​We reveal our five‑pillar SaaS and AI moat playbook ahead of a free webinar.

In Bulls vs Bears Episode 108, MPC Markets, Kai Chen, and Jonathan (JT) explore the sharp recovery in battered SaaS and software stocks as the overhyped AI-disruption narrative corrects to reality. The ASX hit fresh record highs at month-end, powered by BHP’s transformation into a major copper play and standout earnings from Woolworths, while US indices stayed choppy despite Nvidia’s solid results. The team highlights real-world AI wins at WiseTech and Block, flags emerging risks (hacks, rogue bots, AI-generated fraud), unveils their new Agentic AI Threat Map identifying high-moat survivors, and weighs in on serious Middle East tensions with massive US carrier deployments.

Key Takeaways

1. ASX at Record Highs – Australian shares outperformed globally, led by BHP (now viewed primarily as a copper company) and strong retail results from Woolworths.

2. SaaS Rebound Accelerates – WiseTech jumped ~17% and Block surged 26% after major AI-driven staff cuts, showing the market rewarding genuine efficiency gains.

3. AI Narrative Correction – Extreme “AI will kill all software” fears are easing, but new stories of security breaches, rogue chatbots, and AI-generated mortgage fraud signal the hype cycle is maturing.

4. Agentic AI Threat Map Launched – MPC’s new interactive framework rates 45+ software stocks by disruption risk; top resilient names include ProMedicus (PME), Veeva (VEEV), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), WiseTech (WTC), and Technology One (TNE).

5. The 5 Moat Pillars – Proprietary data, regulatory barriers (e.g. FDA), complex problem-solving, strong business models, and domain expertise are the key reasons these companies are expected to thrive alongside AI.

6. Commodities on Fire – Silver +13.5% (5 days), copper and lithium also rallying hard after Zimbabwe’s export ban; gold continues its steady climb.

In this week's episode, the MPC Markets team discusses a quiet but eventful market week overshadowed by escalating US military positioning around Iran, a rebound in select Australian stocks (notably Telix up 14%), signs of sector rotation in the US (Russell 2000 strength), ongoing SaaS sector pressure from AI disruption, and a deep dive into which software companies may survive or thrive long-term. They also cover strong performances in gold miners, banks, and resources on the ASX, while expressing serious concern about potential conflict with Iran over the weekend.

Key Takeaways

• Geopolitical tension spikes — Significant US naval buildup (multiple carrier groups, destroyers) near Iran has markets on edge; the informal “Pizza Index” (DoCon level) remains low but shows early unusual activity around the Pentagon.

• Telix (TLX) surges 14% — Strong CEO interview, recent approvals in China & Europe, multiple Phase 3 trials underway, high short interest (~12%), and analyst targets pointing toward $22+ provide relief and momentum.

• Australian market resilience — Banks (NAB, CBA), major miners (BHP, Rio), and Newmont outperformed despite a subdued week; ASX touched intraday record highs driven by resources and financials.

• SaaS sector under pressure (“SaaSpocalypse”) — AI threatens seat-based models with low moats (e.g. HubSpot seen as heavily at risk); companies with deep data moats, high-stakes accuracy needs (medical, government, compliance), sticky contracts, or large distribution scale fare better.

• AI heat-map highlights survivors — Top-rated names include cybersecurity firms, medical/research platforms (e.g. Viva), logistics-heavy players like WiseTech, and roll-up acquirers like Constellation Software; Salesforce and Xero viewed as more vulnerable.

• Gold remains steady near US$5,000/oz → Miners are highly profitable at current levels despite a stronger USD and absent Chinese buying during New Year.

• Crude oil nears US$65/bbl amid Middle East risks; potential weekend developments could drive volatility in energy and broader risk assets.

• Upcoming catalysts — Nvidia & Salesforce earnings, Australian CPI + RBA’s Michelle Bullock speech, multiple Fed speakers, and PCE data could move markets significantly; bearish technicals on US indices add caution short-term.

This week, Kai Chen and Jonathan unpack the “SaaSpocalypse” — the sharp sell-off in global software and SaaS stocks as AI disruption fears collide with volatile markets. They cover surging Australian bank earnings, record equity index levels, and why Asia (especially Japan) is emerging as a relative bright spot. The discussion dives deep into whether AI is truly “eating software,” the overlooked value of data, distribution, and moats, and how algorithm-driven narratives may be amplifying fear. Plus, insights on commodities, gold’s resilience, AI hallucinations, and whether beaten-down quality tech names now present a long-term opportunity.

Bulls vs Bears episode 105 breaks down how AI hype and Anthropic's latest statements have flipped the market narrative on tech and AI leaders, triggering a sharp rotation out of the Mag 7 into defensives, value, and non‑US markets, alongside extreme volatility in metals, crypto, and key indices.

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Key takeaways

AI stocks sold off despite strong earnings – The Mag 7 mostly beat expectations but the market used good news as an exit opportunity, showing sentiment has shifted from bullish to "sell into strength."

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CapEx shock and Anthropic fears – Massive AI spending announcements and Anthropic's claim that software engineers could disappear in 6–12 months spooked investors and drove the AI sector selloff.

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Big rotation away from US tech – Money is moving from US tech into value stocks, emerging markets, and defensives like Costco, Walmart, and Berkshire Hathaway.

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Historic silver crash – Silver dropped ~40% in a week, the biggest move since 1921, while gold, platinum, and Bitcoin also saw extreme declines suggesting forced selling.

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NASDAQ flashing rare warning signals – Weekly technical indicators hit "sell" for the first time since early 2023, raising risk of a 25% correction from highs.

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Team shifting to risk-off mode – Moving clients toward 40–50% cash, taking profits in miners, and only buying Aussie tech in small increments via dollar-cost averaging.

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In this episode of Bulls vs Bears, Mark and Jonathan discuss the unprecedented volatility in the markets during January, highlighting significant events such as three Six Sigma occurrences in major assets like gold and silver. They explore the shifting strategies in precious metals and mining stocks, the divergence in tech stocks, and the anticipation surrounding the upcoming earnings season. The conversation also touches on geopolitical tensions and their impact on market sentiment, concluding with a cautious outlook for the future amidst ongoing volatility.

Takeaways

• January has seen unprecedented market volatility with significant price movements.

• Three Six Sigma events occurred in major assets this month, indicating extreme market conditions.

• The volatility in precious metals is leading to strategic shifts in investment approaches.

• Tech stocks are experiencing a divergence in performance compared to the US market.

• Earnings season is approaching, with expectations for mixed results across sectors.

• Geopolitical tensions are influencing market sentiment and trading strategies.

• Investors are advised to remain cautious amidst the current volatility.

• Cash positions are becoming increasingly important in uncertain markets.

• The market's ability to shift sentiment quickly is notable, with both bullish and bearish trends.

• January 2023 is one for the record books, with rapid changes in market dynamics.

In this episode, the hosts discuss the current state of the markets, heavily influenced by Trump's actions and statements. They explore the volatility in the market, particularly in the tech sector and precious metals, and share investment strategies that capitalize on these trends. The conversation also touches on upcoming earnings reports and economic indicators that could impact market performance, leading to cautious predictions for the future.

takeaways

• Market volatility is influenced by political events, particularly Trump's actions.

• Investment strategies should adapt to market conditions, especially in precious metals.

• The tech sector is experiencing significant fluctuations, often unrelated to fundamentals.

• Earnings reports are crucial for understanding market trends and potential shifts.

• Caution is advised in the current market environment due to high valuations and economic uncertainty.

• Investors can leverage capital efficiently to maximize exposure while minimizing risk.

• Precious metals are seen as a safe haven during times of uncertainty.

• The importance of keeping track of economic indicators and their potential impact on markets.

• Market predictions are challenging due to the rapid pace of news and events.

• Investors should remain flexible and ready to adapt their strategies as conditions change.

In this episode of Bulls vs Bears, the hosts discuss a range of topics, starting with President Trump's interest in acquiring Greenland and the implications of such a move. They delve into the geopolitical significance of Greenland, particularly in relation to military strategy and resource control, highlighting the potential impact on NATO and European defense. The conversation shifts to the current state of financial markets, with insights on the performance of various sectors, including technology and commodities, and the influence of central bank policies on market dynamics. The hosts also analyze recent economic data, including retail sales, and speculate on future market trends amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Takeaways

• Trump's interest in Greenland is driven by military and resource considerations.

• The deglobalization trend is reshaping supply chains and commodity markets.

• Recent retail sales data indicates strong consumer spending in the US.

• The tech sector is experiencing volatility, with some stocks trading at significant discounts.

• Geopolitical tensions are influencing market sentiment and investment strategies.

In this episode, the hosts cover a wide scope of market themes ranging from geopolitics and commodities to sector-level equities and forward-looking macro drivers. Discussion begins with geopolitical flashpoints such as Trump-era tensions, Venezuela’s transition risks, and Greenland’s strategic minerals, before shifting to equity markets where defence, AI infrastructure and resources stand out as structural beneficiaries. Analysts break down ASX heavyweights across healthcare, tech, infrastructure and banks, highlighting valuation dispersion, earnings resilience and dividend appeal. The conversation also ties in MPC’s 2026 Market Outlook, outlining how AI capex, tariffs, higher-for-longer rates and a persistent geopolitical risk premium will shape volatility and opportunity. Lastly, metals and energy markets are dissected — from record gold and silver to copper strength and lithium momentum — with a focus on how electrification, defence spending and supply constraints feed into pricing.

Key Takeaways

1. Geopolitics is now a core return driver — Venezuela, tariffs and defence realignments are shaping risk premia rather than short-term noise.
2. Defence, energy and mining equities are gaining traction, with stocks like DroneShield benefitting from rising US military spending signals.
3. 2026 will be fragmented but investable, with AI-driven capex supporting growth despite higher-for-longer rates and tariff friction.
4. AI, data-centres and power generation are multi-year themes, driving commodities such as uranium, copper and lithium.
5. Gold & Silver remain strong trades amid safe-haven demand and rate uncertainty, with both printing fresh highs.