Bulls vs. Bears

SpaceX is heading to the Nasdaq — and it could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. In Episode 120 of Bulls vs Bears, the MPC Markets team unpacks the SpaceX IPO: valuation, timeline, and a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion (that's 25% of global GDP).

We also dig into NVIDIA's record earnings and why explosive growth might have a ceiling, Anthropic hitting $10 billion in monthly revenue ahead of schedule, the Cerebras "wafer-scale" chip that's redefining AI inference, Elon's plan to build data centers on the moon using Optimus robots, bond yields flashing red at 5.9% on the 30-year while equity markets look the other way, private credit defaults at a record high, and the collapse of Australian property investor demand following negative gearing changes.

Plus — next week we're joined by a guest breaking down how you can get pre-IPO SpaceX exposure right now through blockchain prediction markets.

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Bulls vs Bears: GPUs, CPUs & TPUs Rocket Higher on IOUs | AI Chip Financing Exposed + ASX Budget Reaction

In this week's episode of Bulls vs Bears, Mark Gardner and Kai Chen (JT is on tin-foil leave) dive deep into the explosive semiconductor rally. Nvidia, Micron, AMD, and the entire SOX index are surging — but how much is real demand vs circular vendor financing and IOU accounting?

We break down:

• The complex web of AI chip financing, vendor deals, and backlog accounting between Nvidia, hyperscalers, and startups
• CPU vs GPU vs TPU explained simply (perfect for beginners)
• Cerebras IPO — 30x oversubscribed and up 68% on day one
• Software Survivors strategy up 243% since early March
• Why Tesla is now trading like a chip stock
• Micron's insane run and why we trimmed

ASX Market Update:

• Banks hammered post-Budget, resources surging (52% reversal since we called the rotation in Sept 2024)
• Gold/Silver moves, copper strength, and BHP's relative underperformance
• Full Australian Federal Budget breakdown: Capital gains tax changes, negative gearing, trust restructures — what it means for investors and property

Plus: Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, Kai Chen turning bearish, and why the market feels frothy yet unstoppable.

Timestamps:00:00 Intro & Semiconductor Madness05:30 Circular AI Financing Explained12:45 CPU vs GPU vs TPU Breakdown22:00 ASX Rotation & Budget Impact35:00 Bulls vs Bears Calls

A high-energy (slightly exhausted) look at the AI boom, market rotations, and what’s next for investors.

Keywords: Nvidia stock, AI chips, semiconductor rally, SOX index, Cerebras IPO, Australian Budget 2026, capital gains tax, negative gearing, ASX resources, Tesla stock, Micron, GPU explained, vendor financing

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#Nvidia #AIStocks #ASX #Semiconductors #Investing

Mark, Kai and JT from MPC Markets are back for Episode 118 of Bulls vs Bears: “Peace, Love and Semiconductors.”

This week, the team breaks down record highs across global equity markets, the ASX lagging after the RBA, oil’s sharp moves, sticky inflation, rising bond yields, and the relentless semiconductor and AI trade. They also dig into Nvidia, data centres, market concentration, thematic ETFs, commodities, and why structured index exposure may be a smarter core strategy than chasing the next hype stock.

Markets are hot, risk is rising, and the boys have plenty to say.
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Mark's living his best life on a boat in Cairns, so Kai and JT are joined this week by crypto-turned-TradFi convert Finn Jadel. The verdict? If you're not building data centres, you're falling behind — and the market is making that very clear.

This week the team breaks down Google's blockbuster earnings (spoiler: it's all about the infrastructure), digs into Meta's AI talent war and its ongoing $80B Metaverse hangover, and debates whether the US economy would even be growing at all without the data centre CapEx boom. They also cover the Strait of Hormuz signal hiding in the oil futures curve, what the RBA is likely to do next Tuesday, and why the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow hitting record highs at the same time might not be as bullish as it looks.

Plus — Finn walks through MPC Markets' "Buy the Dip" structured product, Kai reveals he's three points clear on the scoreboard, and JT confirms he is going full bear purely out of spite.

In this extra-spiky, conspiracy-laden edition of Bulls vs. Bears, the hosts don their tinfoil hats (and look suspiciously like Hershey’s Kisses) to explore whether Trump is a strategic mastermind or simply unhinged. They open with the usual market recap—oil grinding toward $96, refinery fires popping up worldwide, and brutal sell-offs in high-quality Aussie names—before plunging headfirst into three wildly compelling theories tying peak oil, Jared Kushner’s family ties, and a Bitcoin debt-destruction gambit to current events in the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Takeaways:

Market snapshot: Oil prices climbing, Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, mysterious refinery fires in non-conflict nations (US, India, Australia, Pakistan, Mexico), plus sharp moves in Cochlear (-45%), CSL, and tech earnings.

JT’s Peak Oil Conspiracy: US military and DoD see shale peaking; theory that America is deliberately prolonging the Strait closure to starve China and the rest of the world of affordable energy while securing its own low-cost supply advantage.

Kai’s Kushner-Netanyahu Theory: Decades-long family friendship between the Kushners and Benjamin Netanyahu, Abraham Accords architect Jared Kushner, and the $2B Saudi sovereign fund investment into his private-equity firm Affinity Partners.

Trump Bitcoin Gambit: Crypto-friendly Trump family allegedly accumulating seized Bitcoin to nuke the USD, inflate BTC to millions per coin, then use profits to pay down trillions in US debt.

Bullish/Bearish calls & lunar-cycle banter: Hosts reveal their weekly market bets live; JT bearish on energy geopolitics, others bullish on market resilience and upcoming Mag-7 earnings.

“Buy the Dip” strategy: Statistically compelling midterm-election-cycle trade—sell overvalued index ETFs now and deploy capital-efficient dip-buying for the historically strong post-May rebound.

a market that continues to hit record highs despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high energy prices, and rising cost-of-living pressures, with skepticism toward repeated claims of an imminent peace deal. They note the divergence between a euphoric equity market (particularly the Mag Seven) and more cautious signals from bonds and energy markets, while highlighting strong performance in lithium and uranium amid supply concerns. The episode covers Australian bank earnings driven by trading revenues, potential buying opportunities in Viva Energy after a refinery fire, Netflix’s weak outlook, and speculative AI-themed stock surges reminiscent of dot-com era hype. Valuation metrics show the market more overvalued than in November, with historical patterns suggesting a likely 10%+ pullback in the midterm election year. The hosts maintain a “high conviction do nothing” stance for now but promote their “Buy the Dip” strategy targeting the typical mid-year weakness, while voting mixed on next week’s market direction amid light data and ongoing earnings.

6 One-Sentence Bullet Points:

The equity market remains at record highs driven by the Mag Seven despite persistent Middle East conflicts, high oil/gas prices, and consumer cost pressures equivalent to a full percentage point rate hike.

Australian banks reported solid earnings boosted by trading volumes, while Netflix was hit hard after beating estimates due to a poor content outlook and chairman departure.

Viva Energy is viewed as a buying opportunity after its refinery fire, given Australia’s reduced refining capacity makes it almost “essential infrastructure.”

A former wool sneaker company (Allbirds) rebranded to Newbird AI and surged 900%+ on a pivot to GPU-as-a-service, highlighting ongoing speculative froth in AI stocks.

Key valuation indicators including the Shiller CAPE and Buffett Indicator show US equities more overvalued now than in November, with historical data pointing to a high probability of a 10%+ correction in midterm election years.

The hosts are promoting a “Buy the Dip” strategy timed for the typical May–October weakness in midterm years, while leaning slightly bullish or neutral for next week due to positive technicals and earnings season.

In this week's Bulls vs Bears episode, the hosts discuss the chaotic Middle East conflict, Trump's rapid "fake ceasefire" announcement via Pakistan, and its immediate market impact, while expressing skepticism over its longevity given the region's history of broken agreements. They analyze the sharp equity rebound despite ongoing oil supply risks, debate AI safety concerns surrounding Anthropic's delayed model release and potential regulation, review technical chart similarities to past bear market rallies, and share their bearish outlook for the week ahead amid geopolitical uncertainty.

6 Key Takeaways:

Trump orchestrated a quick but fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that boosted markets short-term, though hosts doubt its sustainability with a 100% historical failure rate for such agreements.

Equity markets rebounded sharply toward record highs despite minimal actual changes in oil flows or conflict resolution.

Bitcoin may gain legitimacy or see supply dynamics shift if used for sanctioned payments like Strait of Hormuz tolls.

Anthropic's decision to delay its powerful new AI model due to safety risks could slow the SaaS sector and invite regulatory scrutiny from the Fed and Treasury.

Technical charts show concerning similarities to past post-shock rallies that failed, making hosts wary of buying at current elevated levels.

All three hosts remain bearish heading into next week, citing risks of renewed conflict, especially involving Israel and potential Iranian efforts to humiliate Trump.

Trump's late-week announcement that US forces would hit Iran "extremely hard" for the next two to three weeks — rather than exit — sent markets sharply lower, with crude oil spiking toward $106 and the NASDAQ futures falling nearly 2% by Thursday afternoon. Mark, JT, and Kai work through a volatile week where risk-on/risk-off sentiment flipped multiple times on Trump headlines, review the Bulls vs Bears scoreboard, and assess what Australia's diesel supply constraints could mean if the conflict extends beyond expectations.

Key Points

Trump reversed market expectations by pledging to intensify strikes on Iran rather than withdraw, with crude oil surging past $105 and pushing toward $106 during the recording.

All weekly equity gains — across US, European, and Australian markets — were effectively wiped out within hours of the announcement, illustrating how eight-hour windows are now defining market direction.

End-of-quarter window dressing fuelled a misleading Tuesday night NASDAQ rally of ~4%, partly driven by Western media cutting the Iranian president's peace comments short of their full conditional context.

US payrolls data is scheduled for release on Good Friday when markets are closed, creating an information gap that investors should account for before the long Easter weekend.

Australia's diesel supply situation is a growing concern, with the team noting it would take approximately 31 days to recover accumulated deficits if Hormuz disruption continues — and flagging the possibility of rationing measures within weeks.

MPC Markets' Prism Portfolio Guardian tool has received strong client feedback after six to eight reviews completed this week, with the team also highlighting the Mosaic platform's Iran War dashboard as a daily pre-market resource.

In episode 112 of Bulls vs. Bears, hosts Jonathan Takadena and the team deliver a sharp, tongue-in-cheek update amid escalating global tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, volatile markets, and a chaotic news cycle dominated by unverified Trump statements. They dissect sharp moves in oil, equities, bonds, and commodities, highlight Australia's worsening fuel crisis (exacerbated by a cyclone knocking out LNG supply), discuss sector rotations including a lithium/EV rebound, Meta/Google legal setbacks, and AI/memory chip impacts, while sharing their current bullish/bearish market views and introducing Mosaic’s new automated portfolio review tool.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s repeated claims of progress on Iran deals have an extremely low truth rate (~20%), with multiple statements on tankers, negotiations, and strikes proven false or exaggerated by satellite data and Iranian responses.

Oil prices have surged dramatically while bond yields spiked viciously; equities have held up surprisingly well so far but risk catching up to energy and food price pressures.

Australia is facing one of the world’s worst fuel crises, with reports of 500+ service stations out of diesel, soaring prices near $3+, and 30% of LNG supply disrupted by a cyclone.

Lithium and EV-related stocks bounced strongly as petrol/diesel shortages drive demand for electric vehicles, making Tesla and BYD owners appear prescient while traditional fuel users feel the pinch.

Meta and Google shares were hit after a landmark case where a plaintiff successfully sued over social media’s addictive design contributing to mental health issues, raising risks for their core business model.

The hosts remain positioned for higher oil and gold (short fiat), note Bitcoin holding steady on real demand but needing “degen” hype to rally further, and see potential buying opportunities in equities if they test key support levels around NASDAQ 6000.

In this episode of Bulls vs Bears Jonathan, Mark and Kai discuss the escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict dominating markets, with oil prices surging amid attacks on key energy sites like South Pars, the Pentagon's massive $200 billion funding request signaling a prolonged engagement, and Trump's unpredictable diplomacy including threats to flatten adversaries and awkward diplomatic moments. They analyze bearish technical signals in equities (S&P breaking below its 200-day moving average), the impact of quadruple witching options expiry potentially unleashing downside volatility, private credit liquidity strains and withdrawal caps at major firms like Blackstone, gold's underperformance despite geopolitics due to higher-for-longer rates and liquidation pressures, and sector rotations favoring energy while pressuring growth assets. The team shares a custom Mosaic analysis estimating conflict duration (base case through late June) and asset implications, while remaining predominantly bearish on equities short-term amid macro uncertainty and limited catalysts for reversal.

Key Summary Points:

• The ongoing US-Israel war with Iran has driven sharp rises in oil and gas prices, with attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure like Iran's South Pars field and retaliation against Gulf hubs.

• Technical indicators for the S&P 500 turned solidly negative, including a close below the 200-day moving average for the first time since mid-2025, signaling broader market weakness.

• Quadruple witching options expiry is expected to remove protective put hedging, potentially allowing greater volatility and a downside move in equities next week.

• Private credit faces isolated but notable stress, with record withdrawal requests leading firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl to cap redemptions amid liquidity concerns.

• Gold has underperformed typical geopolitical safe-haven rallies due to expectations of persistent high interest rates from oil-driven inflation and recent heavy two-year gains prompting profit-taking.

• The team estimates the conflict's most probable end date around late June 2026 based on multiple factors including asymmetric warfare dynamics and political pressures, with energy sectors benefiting while broader risk assets remain vulnerable.