The Herle Burly was created by Air Quotes Media with support from our presenting sponsor TELUS, as well as CN Rail.

The pod today is nirvana for polling nerds like me. And anyone who’s just curious about why Canadians, who don’t live and work in the Ottawa bubble, are thinking what they’re thinking. Our guests are two fantastic pollsters I’ve wanted on the show for a long time: Dan Arnold and David Colleto.

Dan has a Masters in Statistics from the University of Alberta and began his research career at Pollara where he led projects for their biggest clients. In 2014, he joined the Trudeau Liberals as their Lead Research Strategist and oversaw the party’s research in the lead up to their historic third-to-first 2015 majority election victory. And he did it all again in 2019 and 2021. He also played a prominent role in the PMO as Director of Research and Advertising. Dan rejoined Pollara about 20 months ago as Chief Strategy Officer.

David is one of Canada’s best known public opinion analysts and social researchers. He’s the Founder, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data – where he works with some of North America’s most respected brands. He has a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary and he’s an expert on voting behaviour and the intersection of public opinion and public policy. Not only that, David teaches in the Graduate Program of Political Management at Carleton.

So today, with this kind of expertise on pod, I want to focus on a singular topic: The multi-year logjam in polling between the Liberals and Conservatives – never more than about 2 points away from one another – appears to have broken. The Conservative Party of Canada have now opened a 10-point lead. What’s happening out there? Who’s moved and why? Is there a road back for the Liberals? And what might be the clinching argument for the Conservatives?

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