Capital Creek Partners - 3in10

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Rich Hall, President, CEO, and CIO of UTIMCO, marking his three years leading one of the nation's largest endowments. Rich explains why UTIMCO's biggest challenge is scale, not staffing, and how its Permian Basin land gives it a cash flow edge that lets it take less risk than peers. He also details UTIMCO's PATS framework for selecting managers and the changes he has driven since becoming CEO, including a new Strategic Holdings program and an in-house platform called Dockside. Rich closes by reflecting on how his years as a Naval intelligence officer shaped his focus on contingency planning.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with a defense of Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, expecting the Fed to resume tightening in September and December. Additionally, he explains Capital Creek's tactically cautious stance on risk assets, citing weakening liquidity, toppy mega-cap tech, and an escalating Iran conflict. Lastly, Scott delves into why gold likely has 15 to 25% more downside to around $3,300.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with rising real interest rates, driven by sticky inflation and AI-capex demand, and the higher cost of capital it implies for markets. Additionally, he previews the July 29th Fed decision, expecting Warsh to hold off until September despite having the votes. Lastly, Scott ties Capital One, Synchrony, and Amex earnings to a resilient consumer, citing falling delinquencies and 11% spend growth.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, welcomes back Doug Terreson, former head of global energy at Morgan Stanley and Evercore, for a return conversation on how the US-Iran conflict is reshaping oil markets. Scott and Doug begin with the Strait of Hormuz and the broken ceasefire, as Doug explains why collapsing inventories forced Washington's hand even as prices fell. Doug then lays out his refining thesis, highlighting record crack spreads and Russian and Gulf supply losses that make refined products the real bottleneck, and weighs the super majors' improved capital discipline. Lastly, Doug reiterates his call for $80 Brent by year-end, arguing record refining margins will keep a bid under crude even if the Strait reopens.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He assesses the collapsed US-Iran ceasefire and the market's striking calm, especially oil's failure to rally. He then analyzes the hawkish June FOMC minutes, noting inflation risks skewed to the upside and calls for rate hikes. Lastly, Scott recounts Pepsi's disappointing quarter, arguing the cheap, depressed stock is overdue for shareholder-value action.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with June's soft jobs headline, masking a still-solid labor market that argues against a July Fed hike. Additionally, he notes real rates fell to -50 basis points, the lowest since 2023, giving the Fed room to hike. Lastly, Scott delves into the DSA's shocking primary wins in New York and Colorado, a populist shift worth watching.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with May core PCE, which printed in line at 3.41% but masks a troubling trend higher, as services and accelerating supercore inflation point to a likely Fed hike and reinforce CCP's underweight on U.S. fixed income. Additionally, he analyzes Micron's blowout quarter, arguing the real story is a structurally durable memory cycle, with 85% gross margins and supply sold out through 2028 making memory the new oil. Lastly, Scott delves into the implications of an inflationary boom, framing the pullback as a summer correction while reiterating a neutral S&P 500 rating and 7,420 target.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week.

Scott opens with the 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran war, signed Wednesday. He walks through the points that matter most for markets, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, $300 billion in reconstruction funds, the lifting of sanctions, and roughly $100 to $120 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets. While he views the deal as reasonable but tilted toward Iranian interests, and the 60-day timeline as unrealistic, he explains why the restored free flow of petroleum, fertilizers, and gas through Hormuz is bullish for equities and bonds but bearish for oil, gold, and commodities, where Capital Creek is overweight and rethinking its thesis.

Next, Scott analyzes the June Fed meeting and the hawkish debut of the new Warsh Fed. He highlights a terse statement focused squarely on price stability with no mention of maximum employment, nine dots signaling a hike as the next move, and a core PCE forecast for 2026 that jumped from 2.7 to 3.3 percent at the midpoint of the year. Scott reflects on how clearly and repeatedly Warsh committed to delivering price stability, ties it back to Capital Creek's "punch bowl" thesis, and argues that a hard money central banker who is also an adroit politician is a powerful combination and a longer-term positive for markets and consumers.

Finally, Scott turns to May retail sales and the resilient consumer. Focusing on the control group for its higher signal-to-noise ratio, he notes the upside surprise, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, and an upward revision to April. He explains why consumers keep spending despite the war, high energy prices, tariffs, AI-related job fears, and generationally low confidence, and what the strength implies for second quarter GDP, second quarter earnings, and the inflation risks now favoring the Fed's hawks.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Morgan Stanley Financial Services Conference, highlighting a spending super cycle and dismissing fears over private credit. He then assesses Lennar's earnings, noting a depressed housing consumer but contrarian signals near cyclical lows. Lastly, Scott reiterates his punch bowl thesis amid mixed inflation data.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week.

Scott opens with a contrarian case for Fed tightening, arguing that a rate hiking cycle beginning later this year is more likely than markets are pricing. He points to a two-year Treasury yield sitting roughly 60 basis points above the fed funds rate, a confirmed uptrend in the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge, the stimulative effects of the Iran war, and a Taylor Rule calling for meaningfully tighter policy making the case that the Fed risks falling behind the curve before inflation forces their hand.

Scott then turns to Broadcom's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, using the results as a lens on the AI CapEx cycle. Full-year AI semiconductor revenues are tracking toward $56 billion up 180% year over year with management guiding for revenues well above $100 billion in fiscal 2027 and expressing high visibility through 2028. A book-to-bill ratio approaching three and accelerating average selling prices reinforce Scott's view that the AI infrastructure boom remains firmly intact.

Scott closes with the May nonfarm payroll report, which came in at 172,000 nearly double the Street's consensus of 88,000 with April revised sharply higher to 179,000. The three-month average now sits at 188,000, well above the Fed's estimated equilibrium. Scott frames this as a labor market that continues to run hot and notes the report sets up Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 17th as one to watch closely.