Welcome to Season 2 of Carbon Trading Chronicles!

In our first episode, we unpack what’s been happening over the summer, from market volatility to geopolitics, and analyse what these developments mean for the compliance period ending this September.

We also get exclusive expert views on the auction process, exploring the intricacies, challenges, and practicalities that shaped the evolution of carbon trading. We do not stop there as we also look ahead to 2025, discuss potential trends, policy changes, and market expectations that could reshape the landscape.

What have you missed in the carbon markets over the summer and what can you expect in the coming weeks?

Riham Wahba, Stefan Feuchtinger, and Nanne Visser 't Hooft answer all these questions and more in the first episode of season 2 of Carbon Trading Chronicles.

In this final episode of our first season, carbon experts analyse how trading practices have changed, which new players are reshaping the market and what current trends are influencing trading activity. They will compare long-term and short-term trading strategies, explore the influence of politics, speculators and the weather on market decisions, and examine the opportunities arising from the competition between algorithms and human traders.

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What is driving the recent price increases despite the prevailing bearish predictions of analysts? Have fundamentals shifted or are we experiencing the mirage of the year? In this episode, carbon analysts and traders make hypotheses regarding 2024 price developments by examining industrials, utilities, banks and hedge funds' behaviour.

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Three months after the official inclusion of the shipping sector within the EU ETS, this episode aims to take stock of the lessons learned so far and explore the pressing questions of shipowners. Our experts analyse shipping companies’ EUAs buying behaviours, the impact of the inclusion of this new sector for the whole EU ETS framework as well as current strategies available for compliance… and whether there's a way out of the system. 

Glossary:

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Can biomethane truly mitigate compliance costs? In this episode, we explore the unknown of biomass and its potential to alleviate compliance costs for EU ETS compliant entities. From understanding its diverse grades to its trading dynamics, we dissect the bullish and bearish trends impacting its market trajectory, and its role in the energy mix.

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As we move closer to the European elections in June, host Stefan Feuchtinger is joined by journalist Frédéric Simon from Carbon Pulse and trader Brieuc de Thier from Vertis. Together, they unpack the record-low EUA prices, the recently unveiled EU 2040 climate target, and the spectre of the European elections looming over carbon markets. Delving deep into the political landscape that shapes the EU ETS market, they analyse how the latest official communication and the imminent elections could disrupt the status quo, potentially diluting the Green Deal.

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In this episode, Vertis Environmental Finance experts dive into the imminent evolution of the EU ETS, where a sweeping expansion is set to reshape the carbon trading landscape. We explore the critical sectors included, such as road transport, buildings, and EU ETS 1 industries below the 20MW threshold, and discuss the upcoming milestones to be expected by industrials across Europe, from 2027 onwards.

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2040 seems like a way too broad time horizon, but as companies start to think about their long-term investment strategies is worth to start thinking: how will the EU ETS look like 17 years from now?

In the absence of reforms, the actual system would force the decarbonization of EU ETS covered industries by as soon as 2039-2040. Is this a likely scenario? It doesn’t seem feasible for industries like aviation or cement production.

With the help of Julia Michalak, EU policy Director at IETA we will try to disentangle the potential changes that could be implemented in the system in order to meet the decarbonization goals while maintaining competitiveness in the EU industry.

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