Cascade CounterPoint

Full Text: This year, Portland Public Schools is in a financial sweet spot. Federal and state COVID relief funds will add nearly $100 million to the district’s coffers. But, next year much of that one-time money will be gone.

Since the pandemic began, parents have increasingly favored alternatives to their district schools, including public charter schools, private schools, homeschooling, and learning pods. PPS projects enrollment will be down 14% from pre-pandemic levels. Since the state’s school funding formula relies heavily on student enrollment, the combination of low enrollment and nearly dried-up relief dollars means PPS is in for future budget trouble.

With enrollment down, the school board initially considered staffing cuts. But, under pressure from employees and their unions, the board switched gears, promising no cuts to licensed employees in the upcoming school year. There’s no sign that enrollment drops are slowing, though, so there’s no telling how many years they can put off cuts.

PPS can’t count on ever-increasing state funding to fix things. Opinion polls show that parents are moving away from public schools for their children. PPS should plan for the possibility that current enrollment declines may never reverse. They need to adjust to the reality of the future.

Full Text: Over-promised and under-delivered.

Throughout its 18-year life, TriMet’s Yellow Line MAX has never met its promised ridership projections.

In fact, just before the pandemic hit, Yellow Line ridership was more than 25% lower than where it was projected to be for 2020. Following the COVID-19 drop-off in ridership, TriMet now doesn’t expect transit ridership to hit pre-pandemic levels until sometime after 2045.

Because of low ridership, TriMet is failing to abide by its commitments to service frequency. TriMet promised the Federal Transit Administration that Yellow Line trains would arrive every ten minutes during peak hours and every 15 minutes off-peak. Instead, Yellow Line trains run every 15 minutes during peak periods and every 30 minutes during other parts of the day.

Despite this consistent underperformance, TriMet has continued to push for expansion of the Yellow Line, with plans to extend the line into Washington State across the proposed new I-5 bridge.

Is slow, low-ridership light rail really the best usage of lane space on the proposed I-5 bridge? Or, should the new bridge instead expand lane capacity for trucks and cars usage to reduce congestion on the region’s freeways?

Full Text: By the time you’re reading this, your May primary ballot should have been counted. I say “should” because some ballots are still in the mail on the way to county elections offices.

That’s because this is the first year in which mailed-in ballots can be postmarked as late as 11:59 PM on Election Day. Under this new law, any ballot received within seven days will be counted.

As these ballots trickle in, we may see some wild swings in some important races. The person who you thought won on Election Night may end up losing as the last of the ballots get tallied over the next week.

If enough of these races flip, shenanigans will be suspected, and many will begin to question the “integrity” of Oregon’s vote-by-mail system.

For decades, Oregonians have had faith in our voting system. One reason for that faith was knowing that by 8 PM on Election Night, all the ballots would be in and will be counted. Voters could go to bed with a good idea of who won and which measures passed.

Now, that faith is likely to be shaken.

Oregon’s vote-by-mail system used to be a model for the country. It still can be, if we’re clear that a deadline is a deadline and ballots must be in by 8 PM on Election Night.

Full Text: According to a revised report from economic consulting firm ECONorthwest, Portland lost 14% of its single family rental houses between 2017 and 2020. That’s a decline of more than 1,300 rental homes per year.

This steep drop shouldn’t come as a surprise given the policies enacted by the Portland City Council in recent years, which have made it increasingly difficult for landlords to operate their rentals.

In early 2017, Portland passed an ordinance requiring landlords to pay up to $4,500 in a tenant’s relocation costs if the landlord decides not to renew a lease or raises rent more than 10%. Two years later, the City Council limited a landlord’s ability to deny rental applicants based on their criminal record, income level, and credit history.

Some are likely to blame the drop in single family rental homes on a hot housing market. However, the City of Portland lost rental homes at twice the rate of the rest of the region, indicating that these policies have played a role in driving the shortage.

While these regulations were meant to help tenants, they have largely hurt them by making it even harder to find a place to live amid a limited supply of rental housing. The City Council should act on this new data and repeal these harmful policies before more damage is done.

QP: Next week is National Charter Schools Week. Oregon passed charter school legislation in 1999, and today, families can choose from more than 130 charter schools for their students.

During the pandemic, enrollment in online charter schools skyrocketed and interest remains strong. So much, in fact, that many charters now have a waiting list. But, why are there waiting lists?

Simple. The legislature set an arbitrary cap on the number of students that can be enrolled in charter schools. That cap stands in the way of many students enrolling in charters.

The entrenched public education establishment does not like charter schools. Teachers’ unions in particular hate charters because many of the schools do not have collective bargaining agreements with the unions.

What they forget—or choose to ignore—is the fact that charter schools are public schools. They just operate differently. Those differences are what make charters so attractive. COVID-19 gave families a chance to explore alternatives to traditional brick-and-mortar public schools. Many families found the experiment was successful.

It’s time to lift the state caps on charter school enrollment. Lifting the cap imposes no obligations on families or schools. It merely opens up options.

No one walks into Baskin-Robbins 31 Flavors and says, “I wish they had only one flavor.” If we welcome choice in something as trivial as ice cream, we should demand choice in something as important as education.

Full Text: For more than a year, Cascade Policy Institute has urged Metro to convert all or part of its Expo Center into a shelter for the region’s homeless. For much of that year, the City of Portland and Metro have had on-again, off-again conversations about using the site.

Let’s face it. The Expo Center is a money pit. It needs subsidies from Metro, Portland, and Multnomah County just to cover its operating costs.

Metro likes to brag that the Expo Center generates $50 million of economic activity in the region. That’s the equivalent of a single Fred Meyer store. If the Expo Center shut down tomorrow, no one would notice.

Nevertheless, the commission overseeing the Expo Center seems to want no part in helping to address the region’s homelessness crisis. Their rationale seems to fall into two categories: nostalgia and NIMBYism.

Last week, the chair of the commission objected because she said she went to the Expo Center as a child and has fond memories of going to the county fair there. The fair left the Expo Center more than a quarter-century ago. I don’t think it’s coming back.

On the NIMBY front, the chair complained that she didn’t want stolen vehicles parked at the Expo Center—as if it’s somehow better that stolen vehicles are lined up along Marine Drive. Commissioners were concerned that the sight of homeless people and vehicles would turn off the polite society that attends Expo Center events.

If our homeless situation seems hopeless, you can point one finger at the unelected commission that’s standing in the way of one straightforward solution.

Full Text: The last two years have made it clear: Oregon parents deserve real choices in their children’s education.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, government and teachers’ union policies have disappointed and angered parents whose students’ academic needs haven’t been met by their assigned public schools. In addition, the online public instruction options available while schools were closed allowed parents to witness actual classroom teaching. These experiences have led parents to demand a meaningful say in where and how their kids are educated, and the ability to choose among a variety of education options.

As parents “vote with their feet” for schools they believe are the best fit for their children, public opinion increasingly favors their ability to do that. A February poll by RealClear Opinion Research reports overwhelming public support for school choice. Participants were asked if parents should have “the right to use the tax dollars designated for their child’s education to send their child to the public or private school which best serves their needs.” Black respondents supported school choice at 70%, Hispanics at 77%, and all respondents at 72%.

As Oregonians move forward from their pandemic education experiences, legislators and policymakers should value all learning options that empower students to succeed. Education funding should “follow the child” so parents can choose schools that best meet their students’ needs. It’s time to fund students, not systems, and serve all children better through school choice.

Full Text: For years, Portland residents have dealt with homeless individuals parking cars and RVs along neighborhood sidewalks, bringing garbage, drug usage, and even blazing fires along with them. This illegal parking has drastically reduced the safety and cleanliness of the city.

In late 2020, the City of Portland and Metro began to consider a simple solution: Allow those who live out of their vehicles to park legally at Portland’s underused Expo Center.

The plan seemed logical. The Expo Center is removed from residential and commercial areas, boasts an expansive parking lot, and offers easy access to public transit. Once in a centralized location, homeless campers could also more easily connect with resources to help them get back on their feet.

After almost a year of discussions, the two sides abandoned the project over a dispute about which part of the parking lot to use. Now, with primary elections just around the corner, public officials seem to have found a much-needed sense of urgency.

On April 18, Metro and the City of Portland will hold an emergency meeting to move forward with the homeless parking site. For Portland’s livability to be restored, the two jurisdictions need to do whatever it takes to fast-track the project’s development. And, once completed, they need to begin making campers move there.

While this should have been done well over a year ago, it’s better late than never.

Full Text: The Oregon Transportation Commission recently decided how to allocate $412 million in discretionary federal funds from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The commission’s plan, though, was quickly criticized by a coalition of environmental and transportation groups.

The coalition complained that the spending plan prioritizes “highways over community safety,” even though about half of the funds will be spent on various “climate-friendly” transportation projects, investments in safer biking and walking routes, and improved ADA accessibility.

Prior to the commission’s decision, the coalition of activists had crafted its own vision for how to allocate the money. Had the group had its way, all $125 million earmarked for repairing and improving roads would have been put toward local transportation funding, with the intent that the money would be focused on active and public transportation.

To anti-car activists, a dollar spent on roads is a dollar wasted. But, whether they like it or not, Oregon needs an efficient, well-maintained road network. 80% of the state’s workforce commutes by car, and virtually all freight in Oregon relies on road transportation at some point in its journey.

When making future funding decisions, transportation authorities and elected officials should prioritize infrastructure investments that will benefit the vast majority of Oregonians who drive, rather than seeking to please activists who happen to be the loudest voices in the room.

Full Text: The Census just released the latest population estimates and, for the first time in nearly two decades, Multnomah County’s population has dropped. From 2020 to 2021, the county’s population decreased by more than 12,000 people, or 1.5%.

Neighboring Washington and Clackamas counties reported almost no change, while Clark County in Washington saw a 1.3% increase in population.

With months of riots shuttering downtown Portland, crime rising, and homeless camps in nearly every neighborhood, it should come as no surprise that people are leaving the county.

But there’s another factor: Taxes. In 2021, three new taxes went into effect in Multnomah County. First, there’s the county’s 1% income tax for free preschool. Then, there’s Metro’s 1% personal income tax and a 1% business income tax for subsidized housing.

We’ve been here before. The last time Multnomah County saw a drop in population was when the county imposed a 1% income tax from 2003 to 2005.

Proponents of the taxes will say they only hit so-called “high income” earners. And, that’s the rub.

High-income earners have a big incentive to take action to reduce their tax bills. If they have a second home at the coast or in the mountains, it doesn’t take much to change their address to escape Multnomah County’s three new income taxes.

People respond to incentives. If the incentives say, “We don’t want you here,” then people will get the message and leave—even if it’s only on their tax forms.