Cascade CounterPoint

On December 30th, Chief Petitioners plunked down the last pile of signatures on the Secretary of State’s desk. It was a slam dunk for the Oregon System.

In a record-breaking 40-ish days, a quarter-million Oregon voters lined up in every county to sign the “Stop the Gas Tax” petition and refer Governor Kotek’s $4.3 billion transportation tax to the November ballot.

These voters participated in the “Oregon System,” a form of direct democracy passed in 1902 and giving voters the right to challenge legislation in a veto referendum. Since then, Oregon voters have repealed 42 laws.

Oregon Freedom Coalition’s Nick Stark told Cascade there were nearly enough signatures to even qualify for a constitutional referendum.

The record-breaking signature drive signaled legislators that Oregon’s voters are up for any challenge—especially the legislative session beginning in February.

No sooner had Stark spoken, when Governor Kotek called for lawmakers to “redirect, repeal, and rebuild” the transportation bill, admitting that “thousands of Oregonians across the state have made their point.”

As designed, the Oregon System earned the Governor’s attention.

So what’s next? The Bill’s Chief Petitioners say a full repeal isn’t the best answer as it would gut the good parts, re-institute tolling, and halt the audit of ODOT.

In any case, the Governor and her supermajority are back where they started one year ago, unable to govern and unable to carry out the state’s most basic functions: to maintain roads and bridges—the stuff all of us need and care about.

Two things—a lack of imagination in spending solutions and a narrow fixation on collecting more taxes—make up a mindset where nothing can be done unless voters pay more for less—more for gas taxes, more for fees, more for dying transit, and more for fewer roads and fewer lanes for cars.

While New York’s socialist mayor touts the “warmth of collectivist action” — taxpayers in Oregon were nearly condemned to the cold gulag of blistering tax increases and service decreases. That is, until a quarter-million voters decided to light a fire, ignited by the spark of individual freedom.

At TriMet’s December board meeting, director Tyler Frisbee lectured attendees on how 82nd Avenue business owners and motorists should embrace TriMet’s takeover of auto lanes for exclusive busways.

TriMet refers to these as Business Access Transit or BAT lanes—which is Orwell’s doublespeak for the opposite effect—reducing business access for people in cars. Portland Bureau of Transportation’s alleged “improvement” of 82nd only turns a street made for cars into an avenue for the minority of pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit riders.

82nd is another flagship for how PBOT intends to “improve” more streets -- by taking away auto lanes to be re-striped as “bus-only” lanes. Traffic modeling shows, of course, this will greatly distress peak-hour travel times by 50 percent and divert motorists to I-205.

TriMet’s 72 bus line will be the only beneficiary of this change. A bus that runs every 12 minutes during peak hours, means BAT lanes will be unused most of the time while motorists eye an empty lane, confined to Los Angeles style gridlock.

TriMet and PBOT are moving towards a likely February decision on the BAT lanes -- and many business owners have threatened legal action for loss of access to their shops.

Director Frisbee, meanwhile, took 10 minutes to make unsubstantiated assertions, to which Cascade’s President, John Charles, has written a response you can read at cascadepolicy.org.

Like an evangelist, Tyler Frisbee pleas for Portlanders to repent from their car-centric ways and embrace the narrow vision of PBOT’s Transportation System Plan -- whose tenets are known as “Vision Zero:” Stop designing roads around people in cars to make driving more painful, and convert major roads into avenues for walking, bicycling, and public transit.

At the February meeting, the TriMet Board should withdraw this idea and end its war on the majority of people in cars.

In early December, Governor Kotek unveiled “Oregon’s Prosperity Roadmap” and laid out “three broad goals” to grow business, jobs, and the economy. While acknowledging Oregon’s economic decline, her roadmap is only an updated cover for the same GPS coordinates: driving prosperity via state programs.

Oregon’s latest “prosperity roadmap” promises growth through new programs and administrative solutions—but decades of similar plans haven’t reversed our decline.

Oregon’s governors have been cycling through similar campaigns since Neil Goldschmidt touted “Oregon Shines” in 1989.

The problem isn’t the map. It’s the direction.

Eighty-five years ago, in 1939, Oregon’s newly elected governor, Charles Sprague, gave his inaugural address on “the economic problem of Oregon.” The Oregon Historical Society features a line from his speech on its courtyard wall, which says:

“In the long history of humanity, the most precious spark is that of individual freedom.”

In his day, Sprague managed the Oregon Statesman paper at a time when tyrants rose to power, and collectivist states snuffed out the “precious spark” of untold millions.

He knew a thing or two about Oregon’s economic challenges on the heels of the Depression, with 15 percent joblessness and dependence on New Deal spending -- rather than private sector growth.

His inaugural address emphasized freedom, responsibility, and recovery. His GPS was guided by the notion that individual freedom is the atomic “spark” that ignites human ingenuity to create wealth; and that long-term prosperity flows from free enterprise rather than never-ending public support and centralized control.

Oregon needs a new direction and leaders with the will and muscle to remove prosperity-crushing obstacles that prevent us from getting to cruising speed.

All roads have off-ramps. Many are ditching Oregon’s obstacle course and taking their sweet rides to cruise into the sunrise of better opportunity.

All roads have on-ramps. The on-ramp to lasting prosperity is that “precious spark” of individual freedom. As we debate our economic future, it's important to remember Gov. Sprague's lesson.

Oregon’s prosperity roadmap must be guided by individual freedom.

Visit www.cascadepolicy.org

How much money does it take to “fully fund” Oregon’s public schools? Last month a Joint Committee of the Oregon legislature released a “Report on the Adequacy of Public Education Appropriations.” Oregon’s Fiscal and Policy Research offices examined the level of funding provided by the Legislature and other sources for public schools.

They concluded that public schools today receive the full $13.5 billion recommended by the Education Commission in 2024 to “fully fund schools.” That means the Legislature appropriated $11.3 billion and the Corporate Activities Tax came in at another $2.2 billion.

According to the Oregonian’s analysis, advocates for public school funding, like PPS board member Christy Splitt, dismiss the expert report and opines that school funding is “not enough.” She complains the report’s conclusion is the result of a “political narrative.”

However, the facts remain that school funding has increased over the years while academic outcomes and the student population have declined. Lawmakers have asked for accountability on how schools are using state dollars, only to see plummeting national scores of about 25-percent proficiency in reading and math for today’s eighth graders.

Maybe more money is never enough because money is not the problem – or the solution – to Oregon’s education. At Cascade, we believe options in education would make better use of funding and allow parents a greater say in choosing the school -- public, private or charter -- that meets their child’s learning needs.

Read the full commentary at www.cascadepolicy.org

On December 2, Portland Public Schools board voted unanimously to purchase the One North commercial building for $16 million to house the Center for Black Student Excellence, but the building’s purchase price is only the beginning.

The building needs another $20 to $25 million in renovations and two to three years of construction. For the next three years PPS will own an expensive, mostly empty shell.

While fostering student excellence should be the district’s priority, this plan is fiscally reckless and logistically flawed. In November, Cascade submitted an Analysis to the PPS Facilities Committee enumerating the risks associated with the One North purchase. The Oregonian editorial board repeated some of Cascade’s concerns.

Portland Public Schools faces a $50 million budget shortfall, yet they’ve committed to purchasing property with operational deficits for an undefined program. When board members questioned this gap—money that could fund teachers or educational assistants—proponents dismissed concerns. One called it a “drop in the bucket.” Another complained that such questioning “doesn’t feel very fair.” For taxpayers facing cuts, such resistance to basic financial scrutiny is unacceptable.

There is a better solution: to integrate the center into Jefferson High School’s construction. This eliminates costly conversions, cuts delays, and saves tens of millions of dollars.

The board has a mandate to spend $60 million on Black student excellence. It doesn’t have a mandate to spend it foolishly.

Read the full commentary at www.cascadepolicy.org

The Oregon Department of Energy, or ODOE, recently published its Oregon Energy Strategy which centers on “decarbonization” by eliminating the generation of fossil fuels in Oregon.

ODOE director Janine Benner told the legislature, “It’s not a matter of when the energy transition from fossil fuels will occur; It’s already happening.”

If so, It’s proceeding at glacial speed. ODOE’s webpage on Oregon’s electricity supply shows that, between 2012 and 2024, fossil fuels remain the dominant source of electricity. It’s true that wind and solar grew to 11 percent, but only after hundreds of millions in subsidies.

What’s most concerning today is the reality that wind and solar are intermittent. For engineering reasons, both the supply of and demand for electricity must always be in equilibrium. Sudden drops caused by weather could lead to blackouts.

Grid operators need “dispatchable” energy sources. Wind and solar are not dispatchable, making them unsuited for the utility grid—and for the coming century.

The energy transition isn’t happening because it can’t happen. Decarbonization conflicts with the demands of a modern economy. Shutting down coal and gas plants and ending fossil fuel sales would transport us back to the nineteenth century.

Oregon’s political leaders have embraced energy poverty at a time when electricity demand is skyrocketing. The fuels needed to power new data centers and electric vehicles are nuclear, coal, gas and hydro—none of which are planned to increase in Oregon due to regulations.

Welcome to the nineteenth century. Stock up on candles.

For the full commentary visit www.cascadepolicy.org

Cascade recently participated in U of O’s Inspire Oregon summit on Rural Housing Policy, where policymakers, administrators, and leaders met to discuss policy and draft recommendations for Oregon’s next legislative session.

Discussions centered on a theme: that of navigating state regulations so rural citizens can have local control in Oregon’s housing crisis.

Since 1973 Oregon’s Land Conservation and Development Act has restricted communities from meeting the housing and economic needs of their growing populations, in essence, favoring land preservation over housing and economic uses, and stifling Oregon’s rural communities. This leaves local citizens without a voice in their own backyard.

In a session on “Streamlining Development Process,” they discussed improving the process for what’s known as “use by right” to encourage residential housing projects.

However, local opponents and special interest groups continue to stunt and delay “use by right” policy through the Land Use Board of Appeals. They work to block projects and convolute the process for home builders.

This year, the legislature tried to clarify “use by right,” amend the convoluted procedures, and limit opponents’ ability to sue over permitted developments.

Rural housing advocates will be asking legislators to adopt policies that favor residential development while respecting property rights.

Oregon should decrease risk and regulatory cost for developers, simplify codes, and increase local control so communities can solve their local housing crises.

Read the full commentary at CascadePolicy.org.

TriMet has a Board Retreat this week. Looking at their agenda, the first thing you’d notice is what’s missing. You won’t find any urgency to address their financial decline—or touch on operating losses of $850 million in 2024.

The only agenda items to mention money are the “Financial Scorecard Update” and “Federal Grants Update.” But TriMet’s problems go far beyond keeping score of revenue and expenses.

According to financial reports, every metric related to productivity, cost-effectiveness, and financial sustainability has declined for 10 years.

Fare revenue—down 52 percent; rides down, 28 percent; farebox recovery down, 8 percent from 34 percent.

The only things going up are taxes and bureaucracy. TriMet’s tax revenue is up 75 percent; labor cost, up 86 percent; full-time employees, up 19 percent; administrative, up 88 percent.

Undeterred, however, TriMet still plans to expand light rail into Washington, whose express bus is already superior to light rail. And to spend $350 million on reducing lanes for 82nd Avenue.

Wednesday’s agenda should focus primarily on the crisis at hand: how to reduce costs and raise revenue. TriMet doesn’t even have a minimum farebox standard. It should.

Our advice to the TriMet board? Use your time wisely. Procrastination is not a strategy.

TriMet Retreat Should Focus on Crisis, Not Expansion 

Since 1965, Congress has been subsidizing transit and taxpayers have spent well over $2 trillion dollars on transit. That’s in the same territory as the U.S. deficit.

In these 60 years, transit operating costs have increased 500 percent while fare revenues have ticked up a modest 10 percent. Total ridership – in actual numbers – has decreased by 10 percent, and riders per capita for urban residents has fallen by more than half.

Instead of improving efficient transportation, transit agencies have bloated their bureaucracies and nearly tripled their workers. Today, they spend 55 percent more on "general administration."

Most transit makes congestion worse, not better. Aside from New York, transit uses more energy and emits more greenhouse gases per passenger-mile than cars and light trucks. Worse yet, transit spending siphons billions from improving roads for 100 percent of Americans.

It's time to stop this trillion-dollar boondoggle. Next year, congress will consider new legislation in the Surface Transportation Reauthorization bill. Congress should end transit subsidies or tie them to fare revenues, so that transit must boost ridership—not spending—to increase funds.

Read more at $2 Trillion and No One Aboard - Cascade Policy Institute

This week, Cascade’s president, John Charles, testified at Portland Public Schools’ Bond Accountability Committee.

He commended BAC’s work reviewing this year’s $2 billion Portland school bond and agreed with their assessment that building three large high schools when enrollment is declining is a mistake.

He asked BAC to “Speak directly to the taxpayers who will have to pay hundreds of millions in unnecessary construction costs.”

When Portland Public Schools passed the largest bond in state history, to build the nation’s most expensive high schools, the measure required oversight by a citizen committee.

When the BAC reported on the bond, they expressed concern about “building such large schools…given declining enrollment and decreasing birth rates.”

Their advice at the October meeting was ignored, and the Board voted to move ahead with plans to overbuild three high schools by several thousand seats.

In a not-so-distant fiscal crisis, journalists will ask the school board, “What did you know and when did you know it?”

They’ll be forced to admit they ignored the warnings of oversight committees and citizen research groups like Cascade. PPS board members have breached their fiduciary duty and act as though there will be no consequences. Dear BAC – please tell the taxpayers.

Read the full commentary at ⁠Dear PPS Bond Committee: Please Tell the Taxpayers - Cascade Policy Institute⁠