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Did Iran blink, or did the U.S. pull back too soon?

At the 11th hour, the U.S. and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire, stepping back from a major escalation. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is set to resume under the ceasefire—but the core issues driving the war remain unresolved.

Dan is joined by Nadav Eyal and Mark Dubowitz to break down what was actually agreed to, why Israel’s security establishment is uneasy, and whether this pause reflects strategic success—or a missed opportunity.

Is this a real off-ramp…or just a temporary pause before the next phase?

In this episode:

03:15 - A Ceasefire at the Brink: What Was Actually Agreed

05:33 - The Strait of Hormuz: Reopening Under What Terms?

06:57 - The Missing Pieces: Nuclear Program and Missiles Still Unresolved

08:18 - Israel’s Alarm: Why the Security Establishment Is Worried

14:30 - Did Iran Blink—or Gain Leverage?

15:42 - Trump’s Red Lines: What Must a Final Deal Include?

21:21 - Political Risks: Israel, the U.S., and the Blame Game

35:24 - Endgames: Diplomacy, Regime Pressure, or Renewed War

This episode was sponsored by the Jewish Communal Fund. Learn more about JCF’s donor advised funds at jcfny.org.

Listen to Mark’s podcast The Iran Breakdown.

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Credits: Ilan Benatar, Adaam James Levin-Areddy, Brittany Cohen, Ava Weiner, Martin Huergo, Mariangeles Burgos, and Yuval Semo