Recording date: 14th October 2025

Derek Macpherson, Executive Chairman of Olive Resource Capital, and CEO Sam Pelaez presented their outlook on the evolving commodity markets during their October 14, 2025 Compass podcast. Their analysis highlights a transition from precious metals dominance toward broader industrial commodity opportunities driven by monetary policy and structural supply constraints.

Gold continues trading at $4,100 with silver exceeding $50 per ounce despite recent Middle East peace developments. Pelaez emphasized that global liquidity has reached all-time highs, surpassing pandemic levels, and maintains the highest correlation with gold performance. This monetary backdrop combines with central banks actively reducing US dollar exposure, creating sustained precious metals support independent of geopolitical developments.

The hosts identified emerging opportunities in industrial metals based on cyclical patterns. US manufacturing contracted for 33 of the last 36 months, creating conditions similar to previous troughs. Federal Reserve rate cuts combined with Chinese monetary easing now target manufacturing activity directly. Pelaez questioned whether markets are entering "the early innings of an industrial recovery for the metals."

Copper emerged as particularly attractive given supply constraints at four of the world's top ten assets including Cobre Panama, Kamoa-Kakula, Grasberg, and QB2. Macpherson noted these production challenges create tight supply conditions that would respond dramatically to manufacturing demand recovery.

Government intervention in critical minerals represents another strategic focus. The US Department of Defense committed $1 billion to stockpiling programs, creating price floors that protect domestic producers from Chinese market manipulation. Pelaez highlighted CoTec's exclusive US licensing for magnet recycling technology as exemplifying opportunities in processing rather than traditional mining, avoiding extraction complexities while benefiting from government support.

The firm views the current environment as following historical bull market progression from gold through silver and platinum group metals toward base and industrial commodities. Macpherson advised following government capital flows given their superior balance sheets and extended investment horizons. Olive Resource Capital continues positioning for subsequent market phases while maintaining focus on alpha generation in less liquid segments where fundamental analysis drives outperformance.

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