Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • ESLT Stock Q2 2026: Elbit Systems Earnings - Record $32B Backlog, Stock Fell 8.3%
    Elbit Systems (ESLT) Q2 2026 — Elbit is a foreign private issuer, so Q2 2026 arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 6:01am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 was the reaction session: the shares gapped down 5.96 pct, traded to USD760.42 and closed -8.27 pct at USD776.08 on 2.36x average volume. USD783.62 on August 14.
    Elbit Systems is an international defense technology group. The June quarter was excellent on every operating measure: revenue up 15.9 pct to USD2,287.1M, Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 against a USD3.69 bar, GAAP operating margin up 160bp to 9.6 pct, and a record USD32.0bn order backlog. The shares fell 8.27 pct anyway.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A FLAWLESS QUARTER AT AN UNFORGIVING PRICE) — base-case value ~$487.49 vs ~$783.62 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD487.49 vs the USD783.62 close, -37.8 pct. Bear USD313.24 / base USD487.49 / bull USD730.80, weighted 35/35/30 across an unlevered DCF at 8.5 pct, 30x our 2027 Non-GAAP EPS and 18x 2027 EBITDA. Even the bull road sits 6.7 pct under the tape.
    - THE PRINT: revenue USD2,287.1M vs USD2,251.5M expected, up 15.9 pct. Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 vs a USD3.69 bar, a 12.2 pct beat and 28.2 pct growth. GAAP EPS USD3.61. Gross margin 25.3 pct from 24.0, GAAP operating margin 9.6 pct from 8.0, Non-GAAP 10.4 pct from 8.9.
    - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN BOTH WAYS: Q1 Non-GAAP USD3.87 plus Q2 USD4.14 equals the filed six-month USD8.01, so the vendor epsActual series is Non-GAAP. Q1 GAAP USD3.34 plus Q2 USD3.61 equals the filed USD6.95. The USD0.53 gap is the published bridge, USD25.5M exactly.
    - THE ORDER BOOK: USD32.0bn at June 30, an all-time record, up 34.5 pct from USD23.8bn a year earlier and 6.0 pct from USD30.2bn at March 31. That implies about USD4,087M of gross intake on USD2,287.1M of revenue - a book-to-bill near 1.8x and 3.7 years of revenue contracted.
    - THE TAX LINE, THE ONE THING THAT CHANGED: the effective rate went 5.6 pct to 16.4 pct on the OECD global minimum tax named in the release. That is USD25.7M more tax, about USD0.53 a diluted share - the size of the whole Non-GAAP bridge. FY2025 was 9.9 pct. Structural, not timing.
    - GROWTH MIX: Land +32.1 pct, ISTAR and EW +21.9, the American arm +16.5, C4I and Cyber +11.5, Aerospace -7.8 on project mix. By region Israel +27.5 pct, Asia-Pacific +22.1, North America +14.9 - and Europe FLAT at USD563.3M vs USD563.8M, though the release says the book grew mainly from Europe.
    - CASH: first-half operating cash flow USD517.8M, up 70.3 pct - but contract liabilities (customer advances) rose USD698.8M while receivables and contract assets rose USD834.4M, so they nearly cancel. Capex doubled to USD157.6M. Net cash USD695.4M. Trailing FCF USD681.5M, a 1.81 pct yield.
    What to watch: UP: a clear beat against the USD3.82 third-quarter bar on November 17 rebuilds our 2026 line and lifts every valuation road; European revenue inflecting from a flat USD563.3M confirms the order wave is converting. DOWN: book-to-bill falling toward 1.0x, or the tax rate settling above 16.4 pct.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • TBBB Stock Q2 2026: BBB Foods Earnings - EBITDA Grew 13.8%, Or 43.8%
    BBB Foods (TBBB) Q2 2026 — BBB Foods is a foreign private issuer, so the 2Q26 release arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 4:30pm ET on August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 was the reaction session: the shares opened +8.2 pct and closed +16.31 pct at USD49.20, the highest close of the twelve-month window, on 4.4x average volume. They eased to USD47.79 on August 14. Everything is reported in Mexican pesos (Ps.) under IFRS.
    Tiendas 3B is Mexico's leading grocery hard discounter: 3,624 stores, 21 distribution centres and 29,202 staff. The quarter was excellent - revenue up 38.7 pct to Ps. 26,037M, same-store sales up 20.0 pct, 155 net new stores. But the release carries TWO EBITDA growth rates: 13.8 pct on the income statement, 43.8 pct excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based charge. That charge is settled in real shares, and the company says so itself.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS, PRICED ON A SHARE COUNT THAT IS 42 PCT TOO SMALL) — base-case value ~$39.58 vs ~$47.79 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD39.58 against the USD47.79 close, -17.2 pct. Bear USD23.37 / base USD39.58 / bull USD58.08, weighted 50/30/20 across an exit-multiple road, a free-cash-flow DCF and a sales multiple. All three roads land within a dollar of each other; the disagreement is with the share count, not the method.
    - THE PRINT: total revenue Ps. 26,037M, up 38.7 pct year on year, decomposing as 20.0 pct same-store sales compounded with about 15.6 pct from the wider network. Gross margin expanded 54 bps to 16.8 pct. 155 net new stores took the base to 3,624, and a new distribution centre took the logistics network to 21.
    - THE TWO EBITDA NUMBERS: reported EBITDA Ps. 960M, up 13.8 pct. Excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based payment charge it is Ps. 1,575M, up 43.8 pct. The charge itself rose 143.8 pct. Administrative expense rose 95.3 pct, and even stripping the charge out it still rose 69.8 pct to Ps. 813M.
    - THE SHARE COUNT: Appendix 1 of the release gives 121,187,774 shares outstanding and, on the company's own net-settlement method run at the USD47.79 close, 164.7M fully diluted. The data vendor carries 115.9M. So market value is USD7.87bn, not the USD5.54bn a screen prints - 42 pct larger at the same share price.
    - THE MULTIPLE: enterprise value on the fully diluted count is Ps. 143.6bn, which is 28.8x trailing EBITDA before the charge and 1.58x sales on a 5.48 pct trailing margin. On the screen share count the same company looks like 20.8x. A third of the multiple vanishes purely because the denominator is wrong.
    - STORE ECONOMICS, AND THEY ARE GOOD: revenue per store reached Ps. 7.34M a quarter, up 15.8 pct from Ps. 6.34M. Stores per distribution centre FELL to 173 from 189, so logistics runs ahead of the build. Operating cash flow was Ps. 2,325M; after all capital spending and every peso of lease payment, free cash flow was Ps. 675M.
    - THE STREET: 14 firms cover it, 11 positive. Six published targets - UBS USD51 (Aug 4), Citigroup USD49 (Jul 31), Scotiabank USD48 (May 5), HSBC USD47 (May 27), Morgan Stanley USD46 (Jan 28), Itau BBA USD42 (Mar 13). The average is USD47.17 and NOT ONE postdates the print. The tape closed above that average on the reaction day.
    What to watch: UP: same-store sales holding near 20 pct for two more quarters, or the margin before the charge clearing 7 pct, which brings our USD58.08 bull case within reach of the tape. DOWN: the same-store line fading toward the mid-teens while capital keeps going out of the door, or any fresh equity grant that resets the schedule in Appendix 2 of the release.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • EROC Stock Q2 2026: ERock Earnings - Revenue Fell 42%, Backlog Rose 10x
    ERock (EROC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30), the first quarter reported since ERock listed on the NYSE on June 11 2026 at USD21.50. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:19pm ET on August 11, AFTER the close, so August 12 IS the reaction session: it gapped up 16.62 pct and closed plus 22.84 pct on 2.56x volume. Two more sessions took it to USD16.72 - plus 48.62 pct, yet still 22.2 pct below the listing price.
    ERock builds utility-grade natural gas generators that supply data centres and factories with power the grid cannot deliver fast enough. In its first quarter as a public company revenue FELL 41.7 pct to USD39.9M - and contracted backlog rose to about USD1.7bn, up 10x. The income statement and the order book tell opposite stories, and the whole USD3.67bn equity value rests on which one is right.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE ORDER BOOK IS REAL, THE PRICE ALREADY PAYS FOR IT CONVERTING IN FULL) — base-case value ~$14.36 vs ~$16.72 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD14.36 against the USD16.72 close, -14.1 pct. Bear USD6.18 / base USD14.10 / bull USD23.07, weighted 25/50/25. Each case takes a 2028 revenue figure, applies ERock's own second-half margin ambition, capitalises it, discounts back at 12 pct and adds the USD626.6M of cash.
    - THE TWO HEADLINES, BOTH TRUE: revenue of USD39.878M was DOWN 41.7 pct against Q2 2025's USD68.458M - the figure the company prints itself - and UP 25.7 pct against Q1 2026's USD31.736M. The widely reported plus 23 pct was neither: it was the SHARE PRICE on August 12, the reaction session.
    - THE ANGLE: contracted backlog reached about USD1.7bn from about USD0.2bn a year earlier, up 10x, in the same quarter revenue fell 42 pct. A 470 MW equipment order from Anthropic extends production commitments into 2028, and the 10-Q states the backlog will be worked off over approximately two years.
    - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY A REFINANCING: the USD67.719M net loss contains USD48.774M of loss on extinguishing debt, booked when listing proceeds retired the borrowings - 72 pct of it, and non-operating. Filed loss per share is USD0.06, but struck on only 48.2M weighted shares for the post-listing days.
    - WHAT THE GUIDE REQUIRES: first-ever guidance of USD435-465M revenue and USD3-9M adjusted EBITDA. The first half delivered USD71.614M, so the second half must produce about USD378M - 5.3x the first half, roughly USD189M a quarter, against USD39.9M just delivered - and swing margin about 44 points.
    - WHO IS FUNDING IT: operating cash flow was POSITIVE USD268.9M for the half, but USD358.4M of that is the increase in customer prepayments. Strip it and operating cash flow is MINUS USD89.4M. Contract liabilities stand at USD528.4M. Cash is USD626.6M with zero borrowings and an undrawn USD250M facility.
    - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: on 219,400,080 economic shares at USD16.72 the market value is USD3.67bn and enterprise value USD3.04bn - 1.79x the entire contracted order book. That price already discounts about USD2.21bn of 2028 revenue, 12.1x FY2025's USD183.1M and more than the whole backlog.
    What to watch: UP: a September quarter near the USD189M the guide implies, another order on the scale of the 470 MW Anthropic award, or evidence the Hyperion factory is shipping at rate. DOWN: a third-quarter print anywhere near the USD39.9M just delivered, any slip in the 2028 commitments, a guidance cut in November, or collection trouble on the customer owing 62 pct of receivables.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • DPC Stock Q2 2026: DPC Holdings Earnings - Record Revenue, And The Margin Fell
    DPC Holdings (DPC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28). DPC Holdings, trading as Doncasters, listed on the NYSE on June 25 2026 - this is its first reported quarter as a public company. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 7:05am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened plus 1.11 pct, ran to plus 11.19 pct, traded BELOW the prior close intraday, and closed plus 4.45 pct on 1.74x volume. By August 14 it was USD50.09 - the entire gain handed back.
    Doncasters casts the superalloy blades that sit inside jet engines and industrial gas turbines, and it has been a public company for seven weeks. Its first print was a record: revenue up 34 pct to USD268.7M, adjusted EBITDA up 33 pct to USD48M, and the first full-year guidance the company has ever given. And in that same quarter the group adjusted EBITDA margin went DOWN ten basis points.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GROWTH IS REAL, THE MARGIN THAT JUSTIFIES THE MULTIPLE IS NOT THERE YET) — base-case value ~$46.27 vs ~$50.09 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD46.27 against the USD50.09 close, -7.6 pct. Bear USD32.92 / base USD46.27 / bull USD58.63. Three roads, weighted 45/30/25: 30x our 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of USD222M, the 32.5x peer median applied to the year DPC has actually guided, and a 36x growth premium.
    - THE PRINT: revenue USD268.7M against a USD246.0M bar - a 9.2 pct beat and a record, up 34 pct. But adjusted EPS was USD0.05 against USD0.07, a two-cent MISS on a genuinely comparable non-GAAP basis. The GAAP loss of USD1.14 a share contains USD158.5M of listing-triggered pay, not operations.
    - THE ANGLE: group adjusted EBITDA margin FELL 10 basis points, 17.9 pct to 17.8 pct, in the quarter revenue grew 34 pct to a record. Engine Products added 210bp to 23.5 pct - but Turbo Wheels, 17.9 pct of revenue, lost 430bp to 3.3 pct as its segment EBITDA fell 55.6 pct to USD1.6M.
    - THE GUIDE IS THE TELL: first guidance ever, USD1.00-1.04bn revenue and USD182-187M adjusted EBITDA. H1 revenue was USD505.3M, so the implied second half grows only 10.4 to 19.4 pct against 29.9 pct in H1 - while needing margin of 18.8 pct against 17.4 pct. A margin guide, in the half margin fell.
    - CASH: free cash flow was minus USD36.5M in the quarter and minus USD53.8M across the half, against POSITIVE USD11.0M a year earlier. Operating cash flow was minus USD27.0M on USD48M of adjusted EBITDA. Working capital of USD307.0M is about 30 pct of guided revenue, so growth consumes cash.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET, AND WE GIVE IT FULL CREDIT: from USD524.6M of net debt at 3.8x in December to USD118.2M of transaction-adjusted net CASH at 0.7x. The 14.0 pct shareholder PIK loan is extinguished, USD460M of a 10.2 pct term loan was repaid June 29, and Moody's upgraded to Ba2 positive.
    - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD50.09 on 149,393,016 shares the enterprise value is USD7.36bn - 45.9x trailing adjusted EBITDA and 39.9x the company's own guide. Howmet, which casts the same parts for the same engines, trades at 43.5x on a 30.2 pct margin. DPC is guiding to 18.1 pct.
    What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, evidence that Turbo Wheels has stopped diluting - a disposal or a genuine margin recovery toward the 7.6 pct it earned a year ago - or a November print that delivers the second-half margin the guidance promises. DOWN: metal-cost pass-through continuing to dilute reported margin, working capital absorbing the growth, a soft first guide revision, or the 180-day lock-up releasing around December 21 2026 into a float that is seven weeks old.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • BLTE Stock Q2 2026: Belite Bio Earnings - The FDA Said Yes And The Stock Fell 7%
    Belite Bio (BLTE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). Belite is a foreign private issuer - no 10-Q, the quarter is a 6-K. It cleared EDGAR 9:50pm ET August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened dead flat, closed -7.07 pct on 3.04x volume.
    On August 11 the FDA accepted the first New Drug Application ever filed in Stargardt disease and granted Priority Review. The stock closed up 0.77 pct. Thirty hours later Belite printed the quarter and the stock fell 7.07 pct on triple volume.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE APPROVAL IS PRICED, THE LABEL IS NOT WRITTEN) — base-case value ~$136.18 vs ~$162.80 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD136.18 against the USD162.80 close, -16.4 pct. Bear USD52.96 / base USD139.29 / bull USD213.17. Risk-adjusted NPV, every assumption stated: 46 pct peak operating margin, 11x exit multiple, 8 years to peak, 11 pct discount rate, 85 pct odds of approval.
    - THE PRINT: net loss USD28.4M against USD16.3M, GAAP loss per share USD0.70 against a USD0.73 consensus. That three-cent difference is about USD1.2M of spending timing on 40,182,310 weighted shares - not operating news. Six-month net loss USD55.4M against USD30.6M. There is no revenue line.
    - WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED IT: cash selling and administrative expense, excluding share compensation, went USD1.3M to USD10.9M - 8.2 TIMES - in twelve months, and USD2.8M to USD16.6M across the half. Cash operating expense rose 181.8 pct to USD28.1M. Share compensation FELL, USD7.6M to USD6.8M.
    - THE ASYMMETRY: the FDA accepted the first NDA ever filed in Stargardt disease, with PRIORITY REVIEW, after the close on August 11. The August 12 reaction session closed +0.77 pct. The Q2 results landed after the close on August 12, and August 13 opened dead flat and closed -7.07 pct.
    - BALANCE SHEET: USD279.9M of cash plus USD500.1M of US Treasury bills and notes is USD780.0M, 98.5 pct of total assets, against USD14.9M of total liabilities and no debt. Liquid assets fell only USD18.6M in the quarter from USD798.6M. About 9 years of runway on the USD21.6M non-GAAP loss.
    - THE ASSET: tinlarebant, a once-daily oral RBP4 antagonist. Phase 3 DRAGON, 104 subjects aged 12 to 20 over 24 months, cut atrophic lesion growth 35.7 pct versus placebo. PDUFA February 12 2027. DRAGON II enrolled 73; PHOENIX in geographic atrophy enrolled 530, with an interim analysis ahead.
    - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD162.80 the enterprise value is USD5.79bn, or USD109,269 per US Stargardt patient against a company estimate of 53,000. That price needs USD3.51bn of peak sales, 20.5 pct above our base case - roughly 14,049 patients at USD185,000 a year, 26.5 pct of the pool.
    What to watch: UP: an approved label on February 12 2027 covering adults rather than the 12-to-20 trial population, or a positive PHOENIX interim in geographic atrophy. DOWN: a label written to the DRAGON population, payer resistance to an imaging endpoint, or a commercial build sized for patients who never come.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • STN Stock Q2 2026: Stantec Earnings - The Quarter One Business Line Paid For
    Stantec (STN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). The 6-K cleared EDGAR at 21:03 on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -1.20 pct, fell as far as -4.59 pct intraday, then closed -0.32 pct on 1.60x volume.
    Stantec reported record net revenue, record adjusted EBITDA margin and a record CAD 9.2bn backlog, then raised its margin target. The United States - 51.9 pct of net revenue - grew organically by exactly zero. All figures Canadian dollars.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD BUSINESS ALREADY PRICED FOR ITS GUIDANCE) — base-case value ~$69.36 vs ~$73.70 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD69.36 (CAD96.22) vs the USD73.70 close, -5.9 pct. Bear USD40.20 / base USD71.26 / bull USD108.35 weighted 30/50/20 on a free-cash-flow DCF: CAD600M normalised, 8.25 pct discount, 2.5 pct terminal.
    - GROWTH DECOMPOSED: net revenue CAD1,780.6M, +11.5 pct. Acquisition supplied 7.1 points and currency 0.7, leaving organic growth of just 3.7 pct. In FY2025 the ratio ran the other way: organic 5.0 pct against acquisition 3.9 pct. The mix has flipped.
    - THE UNITED STATES: net revenue CAD924.5M vs CAD819.6M, and organic growth of 0.0 pct. Every dollar of the CAD104.9M increase was the Page acquisition (CAD105.1M) less CAD0.2M of currency. Canada managed 2.4 pct; Global 12.8 pct.
    - WATER CARRIED IT: Water is 22.4 pct of net revenue and delivered CAD41.9M of the CAD58.8M of organic growth - 71.3 pct. Strip Water out and the other CAD1,381.6M of Stantec grew organically 1.4 pct. Infrastructure, the No.2 business, SHRANK 1.1 pct.
    - THE WIDENING WEDGE: adjusted EPS CAD1.61 vs IFRS diluted CAD1.32 - a CAD0.29 gap against CAD0.17 a year ago, up 71 pct. After-tax amortisation of acquired intangibles is CAD22.7M of it. IFRS net margin FELL to 8.4 pct from 8.5 pct.
    - GUIDANCE CUT INSIDE A RAISE: the adjusted EBITDA margin target went UP to 17.8-18.3 pct, but organic growth was cut from mid- to high-single digits (May filing) to mid-single digits, and the US and Canada with it. Only Global was raised.
    - CASH: first-half free cash flow was NEGATIVE CAD6.2M against positive CAD129.0M a year earlier; operating cash flow halved to CAD116.3M. Stantec still returned CAD231.4M via buybacks and dividends. Net debt CAD1,642.4M, leverage 1.3x.
    What to watch: UP: US organic growth turning visibly positive at the November 12 Q3 print, which would validate the deferred-work explanation and largely close our gap. DOWN: a second flat US quarter, which makes the full-year organic guide arithmetically unreachable, or backlog conversion slipping further.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • SBS Stock Q2 2026: SABESP Earnings - The Interest Bill Ate The Tariff
    SABESP (SBS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:55 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -4.71 pct at USD4.86 and CLOSED -8.24 pct at USD4.68 on 5.05x normal volume.)
    Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo is the water and sewage utility for Sao Paulo state - 371 municipalities, privatised in 2024. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 3.2 pct. Adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct. The gap is the financial line.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD ASSET, ALREADY PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$4.24 vs ~$4.60 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD4.24 an ADS (R$22.09 a share) vs the USD4.60 close, -7.9 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: 1.25x the concession base gives R$21.84, 10x trailing earnings of R$2.27 gives R$22.70, 8x annualised adjusted EBITDA gives R$22.10. BEAR USD3.42, BULL USD5.66.
    - THE ANGLE - THIS IS A RATES STORY, NOT A WATER STORY. Interest and charges on borrowings rose R$825.3M year on year while adjusted net revenue rose R$378M: 2.18x faster. Adjusted EBITDA fell just 3.2 pct but adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct, and 76 pct of the pre-tax decline is the financial line.
    - LONG INFLATION, SHORT THE REAL RATE. CDI-linked borrowings went from R$30.7bn to R$43.3bn in six months - 82 pct of the whole stack. Net of cash that is a R$26.4bn CDI liability costing R$3.7bn a year at 13.98 pct, against a R$17.0bn IPCA-linked concession asset earning R$693M a year.
    - THE REGULATED SPREAD IS 158 BASIS POINTS. ARSESP allows 7.86 pct real post-tax on the base. CDI money at 13.98 pct nominal, with IPCA at 4.07 pct, costs 6.28 pct real after 34 pct tax. Every debt-funded real of the R$20bn-a-year capex earns that point and a half, before any overrun.
    - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS R$0.33 vs R$0.57; reported IFRS R$0.41 vs R$0.62. Net revenue R$10,209M was a record but R$3,616M is IFRIC 12 construction revenue earning R$13.3M of margin. Q2 2025 also carried about R$200M of legal releases plus a R$280.3M financial credit - clean, the fall is 29.8 pct.
    - THE TARIFF WORKED, THE CUSTOMER DID NOT. The average rate rose 9.4 pct to R$6.01 a cubic metre but billed volume rose only 0.8 pct and mix took 3.1 pct back out as social tariffs expanded. Net price landed at 8.7 pct against a 9.9 pct schedule. Active water connections FELL 0.2 pct.
    - THE PRICE RECONCILES. 1 ADS = 1 ordinary share, unchanged; the 28 April 2026 EGM approved a 1:5 split and BNY Mellon issued four extra ADRs per ADR. 3,524,534,025 shares x USD4.60 = USD16.21bn. USD4.60 x 5.2132 = R$23.98 against SBSP3 near R$24.28. Screens quoting 683M shares are pre-split.
    What to watch: UP: a January 2027 ARSESP tariff adjustment materially above inflation (January 2026 delivered 6.5 pct); or Selic cuts below 13 pct, worth about R$264M a year per 100 bps on the net floating book. DOWN: one more quarter of services up 39 pct and chemicals up 97 pct.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • ALH Stock Q2 2026: Alliance Laundry Earnings - Only A Quarter Of The Beat Was The Business
    Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR 07:12 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so Thursday IS the reaction session: it OPENED +7.9 pct - the high of the day - then closed -7.9 pct from that open, -0.6 pct on the session.)
    Alliance Laundry's pre-tax profit improved by USD33.4M year on year. Only about USD8.0M of it - 24 pct - came from the business getting better. The rest is a cash interest saving, a non-cash swap mark and a one-off refund.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GAP IS ONE ASSUMPTION WIDE) — base-case value ~$23.27 vs ~$25.47 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD23.27 vs the USD25.47 close, -8.6 pct. Three roads weighted 40/35/25: a 9.0 pct DCF fading to a 2.5 pct tail USD22.97, 12.5x forward Adjusted EBITDA USD23.69, 17.5x forward adjusted EPS of USD1.32 USD23.15. BEAR USD16.02, BULL USD32.26. Street average USD31.25.
    - THE ANGLE - ONLY A QUARTER OF IT WAS THE BUSINESS. Adjusted pre-tax profit improved USD33.4M: operating income +USD11.8M, interest -USD21.6M. Inside that sit a USD4.87M non-cash swap mark (15 pct), USD3.8M of insurance and tariff refunds (11 pct), USD16.7M of cash interest saving (50 pct) - and USD8.0M of operating growth.
    - THE SWAP MARK IS NOT CASH. The derivative note shows the interest-rate swaps booked a USD3.245M GAIN inside interest expense this quarter against a USD1.625M LOSS a year ago. Across the half, reported interest fell USD48.6M while CASH paid for interest fell USD35.0M - the USD14.08M swap swing closes the gap exactly.
    - THE REFUND WAS NEVER ADJUSTED OUT. MD&A discloses USD3.8M of insurance proceeds and tariff refunds inside gross margin and inside North America segment EBITDA. Strip it and Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.8 pct, not the 12.0 pct headline, and the North America margin was 30.6 pct, not the 31.6 pct printed.
    - THE ANNUITY DID NOT GROW. Service parts - the installed-base revenue meant to be the defensive ballast - was USD43.742M against USD43.439M, up 0.7 pct. North America parts +3.7 pct, which MD&A attributes to price increases; International parts -7.0 pct. New equipment grew 7.6 pct, Commercial-In-Home 19 pct.
    - THE RAISE DID NOT RAISE REVENUE. Adjusted EBITDA guidance went to +8-10 pct from +7-8 pct; revenue guidance did not move at +6-7 pct. Against the filed first half that implies second-half revenue growth of 4.1-6.0 pct (H1 was 8.0 pct) and EBITDA growth of 5.2-9.2 pct against the 12.0 pct just posted.
    - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS USD0.41 vs a USD0.3415 bar, +20.1 pct - but revenue MISSED at USD476.8M vs USD479.4M. Basis proven both ways: GAAP 0.28 plus 0.34 equals the filed 0.62; adjusted 0.31 plus 0.41 equals the filed 0.72. The bar was NOT cut: last year rebased plus the interest saving is USD0.344.
    What to watch: UP: a return to mid-single-digit service parts growth, or International revenue turning positive - it is 25 pct of the top line and went backwards this quarter. DOWN: the November 12 print, where a USD0.32 consensus on USD461M has to absorb the 4-6 pct second-half revenue growth guidance implies.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • RIOT Stock Q2 2026: Riot Platforms Earnings - The $9.1B AI Lease Paid For In Bitcoin
    Riot Platforms (RIOT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 10-Q cleared EDGAR 17:01 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it OPENED +21.5 pct, fell back to USD19.34, and CLOSED +4.33 pct on 4.54x normal volume.)
    Riot Platforms signed 241 megawatts of AI data-centre leases worth USD9.8bn in seven months and issued zero new shares to pay for it. It sold 9,665 bitcoin instead - 3.16 coins for every one it mined, and 54 pct of the stack it began the year with.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE BULL CASE STILL CLEARS THE TAPE) — base-case value ~$11.47 vs ~$19.02 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD11.47 vs the USD19.02 close, -39.7 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: asset sum of the parts USD13.42, signed contracts and treasury only USD7.03, and a 2028 balance sheet rolled forward with the convertible's shares inside the count USD11.19. BEAR USD6.94, BULL USD21.44.
    - THE ANGLE - RIOT PROMISED NO NEW EQUITY, AND ON SHARES IT MEANT IT. Financing activities for the half were NEGATIVE USD2.9M; the at-the-market raised USD0 against USD123.9M in 1H25. Shares went 371.6M at Dec 31 to 378.0M at Jun 30 - all restricted stock - then FELL to 375.3M on the 10-Q cover at Aug 7.
    - SO THE EQUITY CAME OUT OF THE TREASURY. Note 5: 18,005 bitcoin on Jan 1, 3,060 mined, 9,665 SOLD for USD732.5M, 11,380 left. That is 3.16 coins sold per coin mined against 0.46x in 1H25. Riot's own deck calls BTC sales the primary funding source for the equity component of data-centre capex.
    - AND THE SECOND CURRENCY IS THE CONVERTIBLE. The 0.75 pct 2030 Notes - USD594.4M principal, USD14.86 conversion, 67.2767 shares per USD1,000 = 39.99M shares - became convertible at holder option in Q3 2026, and Riot intends to settle in stock. Fully diluted 415.2M, not the 375.3M on screens.
    - THE MINE STOPPED PAYING. Cost to mine one bitcoin INCLUDING miner depreciation was USD90,631 against USD71,667 of production value - 126.5 pct, versus 92.4 pct a year earlier. Segment cash gross profit USD34.5M, then USD64.6M of miner depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA -USD69.7M against +USD495.3M.
    - THE EPS MISS IS 84 PCT NON-CASH. GAAP -USD0.68 vs a -USD0.3033 bar. Basis proven: Q1 -1.44 plus Q2 -0.68 equals the filed six-month -2.12. Add back USD74.6M of bitcoin mark, USD28.0M impairment and USD8.4M derivative marks and it is -USD0.363, a 6-cent miss. Revenue BEAT by 12.9 pct.
    - LIQUIDITY: the deck shows USD1.21bn. Unencumbered is USD796.8M - 5,821 of 11,380 coins are pledged to Coinbase and USD77.5M of cash is restricted, a 34.4 pct haircut. A signed megawatt costs USD9.96M and is worth USD19.17M at a 9.5 pct rate; the tape pays USD7.50M for unsigned ones.
    What to watch: UP: a signed Corsicana lease at Rockdale economics, worth roughly USD9.80 a share of development profit; or the Morgan Stanley bridge converting to permanent investment-grade debt. DOWN: that USD573M facility matures December 31 2026, and another half at this pace takes the stack under 5,000 coins.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • SUZ Stock Q2 2026: Suzano Earnings - The Pulp Price Rose And Profit Fell 64%
    Suzano (SUZ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:11 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened +1.12 pct, which was the high of the day, and CLOSED -0.37 pct at USD7.99 on 1.51x normal volume.)
    Suzano is the largest producer of hardwood market pulp on earth. It prices pulp in dollars and reports in Brazilian reais, and in Q2 2026 that split did all the damage: the realised pulp price rose 8 pct to USD599 a tonne, and adjusted EBITDA still fell 23 pct.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE RIGHT ASSET ON TOO MUCH DEBT) — base-case value ~$8.92 vs ~$8.11 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD8.92 vs the USD8.11 close, +10.0 pct. Three roads weighted 40/30/30: mid-cycle EBITDA of R22.0bn at 5.75x gives USD9.38, free cash flow to equity at a 14 pct cost of equity gives USD8.02, pulp at 5.5x plus paper at 7.0x gives USD9.21. BEAR USD4.83, BULL USD14.03. Reais at R5.2132.
    - THE ANGLE - THE PRICE TURNED AND SUZANO STILL MADE LESS. Realised pulp price USD599 a tonne, +8 pct year on year and +7 pct sequentially; PIX/FOEX hardwood rose 13.8 pct in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA fell 23 pct anyway to R4,705M, and adjusted EBITDA per tonne fell 14 pct to R1,424.
    - THE CURRENCY DID IT, ON BOTH SIDES. Suzano's own bridge: pulp revenue -15 pct = volume -11, average dollar against average real -11, price +8. The identical tonne fetched R3,022 against R3,147. The cost base is in reais too: all-in cash cost R972 a tonne, +16 pct. Cash margin R2,050 against R2,309.
    - THE BEAT IS A TREE. Other operating income carried R1,158M of NON-CASH revaluation of standing timber - 64 pct of the R1,807M reported net income, against a R73M charge a year earlier. Tax it at Brazil's 34 pct rate and diluted EPS is R0.8372 (USD0.161) - a 35.8 pct MISS on the USD0.2501 bar, not a 12 pct beat.
    - THE PROFIT FALL IS ONE LINE. Net financial result was NEGATIVE R10M against a POSITIVE R4,425M a year ago, as exchange gains on dollar debt shrank to R197M from R3,444M. That swing alone exceeds the entire R3,204M fall in net income. Gross margin: 24.4 pct against 35.3 pct.
    - THE STACK: net debt R66,089M (USD12,767M) FELL 7 pct year on year, and leverage still rose from 3.1x to 3.4x in dollars because EBITDA fell faster. On July 1 Suzano paid USD1.3bn for 51 pct of a Kimberly-Clark tissue venture (22 plants, 14 countries). Pro-forma 3.65x. Net debt per ADR is USD10.35.
    - TWO FREE CASH FLOWS: the headline adjusted figure is R9,423M trailing, an 18.1 pct yield. After the R5,095M of expansion capex and R1,519M of dividends it adds back, real free cash flow is R2,809M - a 5.4 pct yield. The ADR is 1:1 (Note 1). Filed diluted EPS R1.45457; ROIC 10.3 pct from 13.1 pct.
    What to watch: UP: a weaker real, which lifts reported revenue without a single extra tonne; or the first disclosed earnings figure for the Kimberly-Clark tissue venture, which consolidates in Q3 2026. DOWN: the full-year cash-cost target of about R800 a tonne, which needs the second half to average roughly R778.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min

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