Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • EQPT Stock Q2 2026: EquipmentShare Earnings - 56% Of The Fleet Isn’t Theirs
    EquipmentShare (EQPT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:48 ET on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close - so the reaction session is Thursday August 13, up 3.53 pct to USD21.41 on 5.0M shares.)
    EquipmentShare grew revenue 26 pct to USD1,449M and Rental Segment revenue 39.5 pct, and reported Adjusted Core EBITDA of USD531M - so it now screens at 4.4x EV/EBITDA against United Rentals at 10.8x. That 4.4x is the wrong number: 56.2 pct of the fleet it rents out belongs to third-party OWN Program participants.
    THE CALL: SPEC BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - THE DISCOUNT IS REAL, BUT HALF OF IT IS AN ADD-BACK) — base-case value ~$24.83 vs ~$20.63 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SPEC BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD24.83 against the USD20.63 close, about 20 pct upside, at 7.0x the FY2026 Adjusted Core EBITDA guidance midpoint of USD2,002M with the leased fleet in enterprise value at the company's own USD4,090M appraisal - within 1.3 pct of the USD24.50 median of the four post-May Street targets.
    - THE FLEET: original equipment cost under management was USD9,851M at June 30, up 34 pct - USD4,235M EquipmentShare-owned, USD5,533M OWN Program fleet owned by third-party participants, USD83M leased. That is 56.2 pct by dollars, 89,775 machines by count. Guidance holds it at 55-60 pct of OEC.
    - THE ADD-BACKS: net income of USD19M plus tax, USD113M of D&A, USD73M of interest and USD26M of stock comp gives EBITDA of USD245M. Add USD234M of OWN payouts and USD60M of start-up costs and you get Adjusted Core EBITDA of USD531M - 55.4 pct of it is those two lines. The payout share has gone 39.8 to 43.8 to 47.8 pct.
    - WHAT THE PAYOUTS ARE: the 10-Q accounts for the OWN Program under ASC 842 as a lease in which EquipmentShare is the LESSEE. The rent is a share of what each machine earns, so it is a VARIABLE lease payment excluded from the lease liability - the balance sheet's USD769M supports the real estate, not the fleet.
    - LEVERAGE AND CASH: the company's own schedule divides USD3,263M of net debt by EBITDA of USD847M PLUS USD245M of start-up costs to print 3.0x - not by Adjusted Core EBITDA, on which the same debt prints 1.7x. Meanwhile operating activities USED USD142M of cash in the first half. United Rentals runs 1.8x.
    - IS THE ADD-BACK FAIR? On the margin, yes, and we say so: a dollar of OWN fleet costs 15.1 pct a year in payouts, a dollar of owned fleet 14.7 pct in depreciation and interest. The MULTIPLE is where it breaks - enterprise value covers only the USD4,235M the company actually owns, while the EBITDA carries all USD9,851M.
    - THE MULTIPLE, REPAIRED: put the leased fleet into enterprise value at the USD4,090M appraisal and EQPT is at 6.5x guided EBITDA; take the USD957M of guided payouts out of EBITDA instead and it is 8.5x. United Rentals is 10.8x. The screen says a 59 pct discount; corrected it is 40 pct - and a half turn is USD3.95 a share.
    What to watch: UP: mature sites reach the guided 264 from 186 while start-up costs stay near USD60M a quarter, and OWN appraisals hold near 74 pct of cost. DOWN: used-equipment values soften, enrolment slows, and the fleet has to come back on balance sheet at 7.125 pct.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • GDS Stock Q2 2026: GDS Holdings Earnings - A Beat Made Of One Line
    GDS Holdings Limited (GDS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the Form 6-K hit EDGAR at 08:15 ET on Thursday August 13, before the open, so Thursday IS the reaction session): net income RMB837.6M against a RMB70.6M loss, revenue RMB3,088.0M (USD455.1M) up 6.5 pct, guidance raised. The stock closed up 6.20 pct on 2.66x volume.
    GDS swung to a RMB837.6M net profit, raised full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA and capex guidance, and the ADSs closed up 6.20 pct. What is in dispute is where the profit came from: share of results of equity method investees contributed RMB959.9M, a non-cash dilution gain booked when DayOne - which GDS does not consolidate - issued Series C preferred shares.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - REAL ASSETS, BUT THE MOVE WAS PAID FOR AN ACCOUNTING ENTRY) — base-case value ~$32.30 vs ~$34.41 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Scenario-weighted fair value USD32.30 against the USD34.41 close - 6.1 pct below the tape and 42 pct below the USD55.83 Street average. That fair value lands almost exactly on the USD32.74 PRE-print close, which is the point: the print itself earned none of the 6.20 pct move.
    - THE PROFIT IS ONE LINE: income before tax and before equity-method results was RMB91.2M; income tax was RMB213.5M. So after tax and before that line the quarter LOST RMB122.3M. Share of results of equity method investees added RMB959.9M - 114.6 pct of reported net income, more than all of it.
    - AND IT IS NOT CASH: the company states the gain arose mainly on dilution of its holding in DayOne after DayOne issued Series C preferred shares. GDS sold nothing and received nothing. Ex that line, income available to ordinary holders was minus USD0.12 per ADS, versus USD0.61 reported.
    - THE FEED HAS THE UNITS WRONG: GDS reports in renminbi and its USD column is a convenience translation at RMB6.7851. FMP epsActual of 0.52 is the RMB per ORDINARY share figure, against a near-zero USD-per-ADS estimate. Eight ordinary shares make one ADS, proven off the filing.
    - OPERATIONS ARE THIN, NOT BROKEN: revenue grew 6.5 pct but adjusted EBITDA only 2.5 pct, with margin down 180bp to 45.5 pct and gross margin down 230bp to 21.5 pct on utility costs. Income from operations of RMB439.2M covers net interest of RMB366.8M just 1.20 times, against 1.02 times a year ago.
    - THE RAISE IS ARITHMETIC, NOT AN UPGRADE: full-year adjusted EBITDA was lifted to RMB5,900-6,100M, but H1 already delivered RMB3,354.6M. The implied second half is RMB2,645M - about RMB1,323M a quarter against the RMB1,406M just reported, an implied margin of 41.4 pct versus 45.5 pct.
    - AND THE CAPEX HAS NOT LANDED: guidance went from about RMB9,000M to about RMB10,000M while H1 cash capex was only RMB2,019.8M, so H2 must spend roughly RMB7,980M - 3.95x the first-half rate - against RMB6,000M of full-year EBITDA. Net debt is already RMB31.2B, or 5.20x that EBITDA.
    What to watch: UP: the utility-cost drag stops so gross margin stabilises above 21.5 pct; the second C-REIT injection completes at a price that validates the estate; utilisation climbs past 80 pct. DOWN: the implied H2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 41.4 pct proves optimistic; the RMB4.2B of convertibles due inside twelve months reprice higher.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • IHG Stock H1 2026: InterContinental Hotels Earnings - The Buyback, Counted Twice
    InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30; the Form 6-K hit EDGAR at 06:08 ET on Tuesday August 11, before the open, so Tuesday IS the reaction session): adjusted EPS 274.7c vs a 265c bar, IFRS basic EPS 283.3c, down 5.6 pct. The adjusted line BEAT; the stock rose 0.15 pct.
    IHG grew adjusted EPS 13.3 pct, lifted fee margin 120bp to 65.9 pct and raised the interim dividend 10 pct for a fifth straight year - and the shares closed up 0.15 pct. The half is not in dispute. The price is: 4.6 of those 13.3 points came from a 4.0 pct fall in the share count, not from profit.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A SUPERB BUSINESS AT A DOUBLE-COUNTED PRICE) — base-case value ~$118.68 vs ~$160.22 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 120.26 USD against the 160.22 USD close - 24.9 pct below the tape and 26 pct below the 162.83 USD Street average. Ten years of IHG's own adjusted free cash flow discounted at a 9.33 pct cost of equity: bear 85.94, base 118.68, bull 157.75. Even the bull case is below the price.
    - THE 13 PCT IS PART ARITHMETIC: adjusted earnings grew 8.71 pct, from 379M to 412M USD. The basic weighted average share count fell 4.03 pct, from 156.3M to 150.0M. 1.0871 divided by 0.9597 is 1.1327 - so 4.6 of the 13.3 points, about 34 pct of the headline growth, is the denominator, not profit.
    - AND THE DENOMINATOR IS NOT FREE: adjusted interest expense rose 16.5 pct to 106M USD, which IHG attributes largely to returning capital to shareholders. After the 26 pct adjusted tax rate that is 11.1M USD, or 2.9 points of earnings growth handed straight back to fund the same buyback.
    - THE MINUS 6 PCT IFRS EPS IS THE FAKE NUMBER: the bridge swings 77M USD year on year and 79M of it is foreign exchange - a 79M gain in H1 2025 against a 7M loss now, on translation of intra-group balances. The System Fund adds 29M more, and exceptional items were a 28M TAILWIND. Adjusted is honest here.
    - THE Q2 EXIT RATE IS THE REAL RISK: H1 RevPAR was plus 4.1 pct but Q2 alone was plus 3.5 pct. EMEAA went 5.6 pct to 0.6 pct; Greater China 5.7 pct to 0.8 pct. Only the Americas accelerated, to 5.4 pct, and IHG says roughly 1.0pt of that was the FIFA World Cup. Two of three regions exited under 1 pct.
    - THE RETURNS EXCEED THE CASH: 2026 shareholder returns of about 1,235M USD - 950M of buyback plus 285M of dividends - against roughly 845M USD of adjusted free cash flow. About 390M USD must be borrowed. Net debt rose 330M in six months, 564M of the movement being returns, and leverage is 2.63x.
    - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET ON THE GROWTH RATE, NOT THE HALF: at 160.22 USD the tape needs 12.6 pct annual growth in TOTAL cash flow for five years. IHG's 12-15 pct algorithm is PER SHARE and says it assumes ongoing buybacks. The Street average is 162.83 USD but the MEDIAN of 152.00 is already below the close.
    What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of RevPAR above 3 pct in BOTH EMEAA and Greater China; fee cost base held at the low end of the 1-3 pct guide while margin adds 150bp. DOWN: the Q2 exit rate of 3.5 pct proving to be the run rate, Middle East disruption persisting, adjusted interest running past the 240M USD guide.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • ATRO Stock Q2 2026: Astronics Earnings - Record Backlog, Shorter Runway
    Astronics Corporation (ATRO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (thirteen weeks ended July 4; the Item 2.02 8-K hit EDGAR at 16:20 ET on Tuesday August 11, so Wednesday August 12 is the reaction session): revenue 260.0M USD up 27.0 pct, adjusted EPS 0.70 USD vs a 0.59 USD bar. Both lines BEAT; the stock rose 17.33 pct.
    Astronics beat the TOP of its own guidance by 10.0M USD, raised the full-year outlook a third time and set a third consecutive record backlog - and the shares rose 17.33 pct. The quarter is not in dispute. The price is: at 93.45 USD the market pays 24.5x this year's EBITDA for a supplier with 68.1 pct of sales in one end market.
    THE CALL: AVOID (2/5, LOW - A GREAT QUARTER AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$60.54 vs ~$93.45 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 2/5. Fair value 58.38 USD vs the 93.45 USD close - 37.5 pct below the tape and 32 pct below the 85.98 USD Street average. Five years of free cash flow discounted at 9.5 pct with a 14x exit on 2031 EBITDA: bear 34.44, base 60.54, bull 78.02.
    - THE BEAT IS REAL: revenue 260.0M USD, up 27.0 pct, and 10.0M USD ABOVE the top of the 245-250M USD the company guided in May. The Street sat at 245.3M USD - the FLOOR of that range. The bar was not cut: the 0.59 USD EPS bar was above the 0.49 USD adjusted delivered in Q1.
    - EPS BASIS, PROVEN: GAAP diluted EPS was 0.75 USD - 35.06M USD over 46.535M shares. The 0.70 USD the feeds carry is the company's ADJUSTED figure - five cents BELOW GAAP, because the bridge normalises tax to 25 pct and removes 8.08M USD. Reported tax was 2.79M USD, a 7.4 pct rate.
    - MARGIN, ON THE ADJUSTED SERIES: adjusted operating margin went 8.9 to 16.6 pct, up 770bp; adjusted Aerospace margin 16.3 to 21.4 pct. Adjusted EBITDA was 51.5M USD at a 19.8 pct margin. A soft prior-year base flatters the reported figures; the adjusted series removes it.
    - THE BACKLOG QUESTION: backlog is a record 780.6M USD, a third straight high, up 20.9 pct. But revenue grew 27.0 pct, so coverage FELL from 3.15x a quarter of shipments to 3.00x. 82 pct converts inside twelve months - 640M USD against roughly 1.08B USD of forward revenue.
    - WHERE THE ORDERS CAME FROM: bookings were a record 306.2M USD, book-to-bill 1.18, trailing 1.13. But Aerospace alone was 1.02, and stripping the 27.4M USD MV-75 award takes it to 0.91. Test Systems booked 63.1M USD including a 44.7M USD US Army full-rate production order.
    - TEST SYSTEMS IS AN OPTION, NOT A DRAG: 22.7M USD of sales, 8.7 pct of the group, at a 2.6 pct margin with 4.1M USD recognised at zero margin. Segment backlog went 73.7M to 123.3M USD - 5.4 quarters of cover against 3.0 for the group. Our base case assumes no further gain there.
    - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET: 5 firms cover ATRO - 3 strong buy, 1 buy, 1 hold, no sells - yet the 85.98 USD average target sits 8.0 pct BELOW the 93.45 USD close. On August 12 Craig-Hallum CUT to 95 from 100, TD Cowen held at 100, Truist reiterated Buy with no target.
    What to watch: UP: another book-to-bill above 1.15 in November with backlog coverage rising rather than falling; capital spending falling back toward depreciation in 2027. DOWN: narrowbody build-rate pauses, cabin-refit deferrals, working capital absorbing the growth.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • LFTO Stock Q2 2026: Liftoff Mobile Earnings - A 42-Cent Beat, And A 20 Percent Drop
    Liftoff Mobile, Inc. (LFTO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 16:05 ET on Wednesday August 12, so Thursday August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 219.5M USD up 35.4 pct, loss per share 0.03 USD vs a 0.45 USD bar. Both lines BEAT; the stock fell 20.59 pct.
    Liftoff beat the earnings bar by 42 cents a share and revenue by 5.6 pct - then fell 20.59 pct. The beat was noise: that consensus was built for a company four weeks old, and no analyst could size the IPO stock-compensation charge. The guide was the news - Q3 revenue is guided flat at 219.5M USD after eleven straight increases.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE CASH IS REAL, THE GROWTH IS NOT) — base-case value ~$23.80 vs ~$21.61 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 23.80 USD vs the 21.61 USD close - about 10 pct above the tape but 33 pct BELOW the 35.69 USD Street consensus. An owner-earnings DCF at an 11.0 pct discount rate and 3.0 pct terminal growth, stock comp deducted as a real cost: bear 12.70, base 24.10, bull 39.68.
    - THE BEAT WAS NOISE: a 0.03 USD loss against a 0.45 USD consensus (Zacks had 0.52 USD) is a 42-cent gap measuring a modelling problem, not the business. Liftoff listed June 4 at 23.00 USD, five weeks into the quarter, so nobody could size the IPO share-award charge.
    - THE LOSS IS BELOW THE LINE: income FROM OPERATIONS was POSITIVE 77.4M USD, a 35.3 pct margin, vs zero a year earlier. Interest took 33.3M USD, debt extinguishment 7.4M USD, an earn-out mark 17.5M USD - yet pre-tax income was STILL positive at 19.2M USD. A 122 pct tax rate made the loss.
    - SIXTY PER CENT MARGIN, FORTY-NINE CENTS OF CASH: adjusted EBITDA was 132.3M USD, a 60.3 pct margin, up from 52.5 pct - but the reconciliation adds back 136.5M USD, 62 pct of revenue. First-half free cash flow of 124.2M USD on 252.4M USD of adjusted EBITDA is 49 cents on the dollar.
    - THE GUIDE IS THE NEWS: Q3 revenue guided 217-222M USD, a 219.5M USD midpoint against the 219.5M USD just delivered - flat, after five quarters averaging better than 6 pct. Adjusted EBITDA guided DOWN 4.8 pct to 126M USD, margin 60.3 to 57.4 pct - the first guided contraction.
    - GROWTH IS ONE REGION: US revenue rose 74 pct to 87.8M USD, now 40.0 pct of the company; Asia Pacific added 34 pct. But EMEA grew 2.5 pct - 55.0M to 56.4M USD - and is still 25.7 pct of revenue. Deceleration ladder: 35.4 pct now, 22.3 guided, 18.6 implied for Q4, about 14 for 2027.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET THE IPO HALF-FIXED: of 472.4M USD raised, 409.2M USD prepaid term-loan principal on June 29. Debt fell 1.855B to 1.437B USD, net debt to guided EBITDA 3.61x to 2.20x. What remains is floating to September 2032. EV 4,790M USD, 9.3x the 514M USD guide.
    - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET: 13 firms cover LFTO - 12 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell - averaging 35.69 USD, median 35.00, range 30-42. Twelve initiated June 29 as the quiet period expired. On August 13, as the stock fell 20.59 pct, UBS raised to 39, Wells Fargo to 34; only Cantor cut.
    What to watch: UP: Q3 at or above the 222M USD top of guidance; EMEA re-accelerating from 2.5 pct; the 60 pct adjusted EBITDA margin holding rather than the guided 57.4 pct. DOWN: Q3 at the midpoint or below; the top customer passing 15 pct of revenue.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • ONDS Stock Q2 2026: Ondas Earnings - Revenue 13x, But 38 Percent Of It Was Bought
    Ondas Inc. (ONDS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 08:26 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x, diluted loss 0.19 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. Guidance was RAISED and the stock still closed DOWN 8.80 pct on 1.56x volume.
    Ondas posted the best revenue line in its history - 83.8M USD, thirteen times a year ago - and raised full-year guidance. Then the stock fell 8.80 pct. Note 5 of the 10-Q explains why: five businesses bought during 2026 contributed 32.1M USD from their acquisition dates, which is 38.3 pct of the quarter and 41.4 pct of the growth. The demand is real. The arithmetic is bought.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND REAL, ARITHMETIC BOUGHT) — base-case value ~$8.24 vs ~$9.24 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 8.24 USD against the 9.24 USD close on August 14 - about 11 pct BELOW the tape and 55 pct below the 18.50 USD Street consensus. No net income, no free cash flow, and no company-wide adjusted-EBITDA breakeven promised before Q4 2027, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 5.41, base 8.11, bull 11.34 USD.
    - THE REVENUE WAS BOUGHT: revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x and 67 pct sequentially, beating the 68.0M USD consensus by 23 pct. But Note 5 of the 10-Q itemises 32.1M USD of it - 38.3 pct - as Omnisys, Mistral, Bird, Rotron and World View, all bought during 2026. The 10-Q's own pro forma grows the quarter 185 pct, not thirteen-fold.
    - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY ACCOUNTING: the 89.7M USD net loss carries 107.9M USD of non-cash charges - MORE than the entire loss. Stock comp 69.1M USD, intangible amortisation 18.6M USD, earn-out remeasurement 19.2M USD. Strip that plus a 29.1M USD deferred-tax credit and 44.2M USD of other income and adjusted EBITDA is MINUS 50.6M USD, against minus 10.9M USD in Q1.
    - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: basic is 88.6M USD over 500.7M shares = 0.18 USD as filed. Diluted subtracts a 7.4M USD warrant gain to give 95.9M USD over 503.6M = 0.19 USD, so the diluted LOSS is bigger than the basic one. The six-month column proves the method: 273.1M USD less 77.5M USD to participating warrants, over 473.1M shares, is the 0.41 USD printed.
    - THE DILUTION NOBODY PRICES: 380.8M shares at December 31, 529.8M at June 30, 570.6M on the 10-Q cover for August 11 - up 49.8 pct in seven and a half months. A further 45.0M are owed to DZYNE's sellers on January 4, 2027, with 196.3M warrants behind that at 28.00 USD. The January raise priced at 16.45 USD.
    - SEVEN DEALS IN EIGHT MONTHS: about 1.75B USD of acquisitions completed in 2026 - 749.1M USD in the first half, then DZYNE for 879.0M USD on July 2 and Cyberhawk for 118.2M USD of cash on August 10. Of the DZYNE price, 92 pct is goodwill and intangibles. Group goodwill plus intangibles is already 1.24B USD, 42 pct of total assets, before DZYNE is consolidated.
    - GUIDANCE IS REAL BUT BACK-LOADED: full year raised to 525-550M USD, Q3 guided to 140-155M USD. Against 133.9M USD booked in H1, the second half needs about 403.6M USD - and after Q3 that leaves roughly 256.1M USD for Q4, a further 74 pct step. Backlog 613M USD, 757M USD pro forma. Cash 1.39B USD against 6.4M USD of debt.
    What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of improving adjusted EBITDA from the minus 50.6M USD here; the 140-155M USD Q3 guide landing on volume already in backlog, not another mid-quarter deal. DOWN: the implied 256M USD Q4 slipping; gross margin below 43 pct; a raise below the 16.45 USD January price; goodwill impairment.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • LUNR Stock Q2 2026: Intuitive Machines Earnings - Revenue 4x, But The Moon Business Loses Money
    Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 07:35 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x, loss per Class A share 0.29 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. The stock GAPPED DOWN 15.7 pct at the open, traded to 14.18 USD, then reversed the whole move to close 17.56 USD, up 3.60 pct. Friday added 8.26 pct to 19.01 USD - that Friday number is the one most feeds call the reaction, and it is the session AFTER.
    Intuitive Machines posted the best revenue line in its history: 206.2M USD, more than four times a year ago. Decompose it and the quarter is two companies stapled together. Product revenue of 166.7M USD - against ZERO last year - is Lanteris, the satellite maker bought on 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD of cash, at a 28.4 pct gross margin. The original lunar business FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD and cost 48.2M USD to deliver: a gross margin of MINUS 31.5 pct. Demand is not the problem. The cost curve is.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND IS REAL, THE COST CURVE IS NOT) — base-case value ~$14.59 vs ~$19.01 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 14.59 USD vs the 19.01 USD close on August 14 - about 23 pct BELOW the tape and 50 pct below the 29.33 USD Street consensus. No net income, no EBITDA and no free cash flow to put a multiple on, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 9.67, base 14.37, bull 19.95 USD.
    - THE GROWTH WAS BOUGHT: revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x on 50.3M USD. Product revenue of 166.7M USD came entirely from Lanteris Space Systems, acquired 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD net of cash, against ZERO a year earlier. Service revenue - the original lunar business - FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD.
    - THE MARGIN SPLIT IS THE THESIS: acquired product earned 47.4M USD of gross profit on 166.7M USD, a 28.4 pct margin. Legacy services earned MINUS 11.5M USD on 36.7M USD because delivery cost 48.2M USD - a margin of minus 31.5 pct. Blended 17.4 pct, flattered by mix, up from 16.1 pct in Q1.
    - LOSS CONTRACTS, IN THE FILING'S WORDS: as of June 30, 2026, the IM-3 and IM-4 contracts are in a loss position. IM-4's accrued loss rose 13.5M USD on an unfavourable cost revision; NASA Near Space Network revenue fell 7.3M USD on delay plus an unfavourable EAC. 87 pct of revenue is now fixed-price, from 55 pct.
    - THE SHARE COUNT IS NOT WHAT THE SCREEN SAYS: this is an Up-C. The 10-Q cover for August 6 gives 173,231,343 Class A, ZERO Class B and 55,692,725 Class C paired to exchangeable LLC units - 228.9M economic shares, 4,352M USD. The feed prints 3,030M USD, understating it by 43.6 pct.
    - BACKLOG AND CASH: backlog 1,762.0M USD, up 8.3x - but 612.8M USD came WITH the acquisition, the backlog definition was rewritten the same quarter, and audited performance obligations are only 814.7M USD. Cash 367.4M USD after first-half free cash flow of MINUS 145.8M USD and 413.8M USD of stock issued.
    What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of POSITIVE service gross margin with IM-3 and IM-4 out of their loss positions; the second half delivering the 507M-607M USD the guide needs through volume, not through the rewritten backlog policy. DOWN: another unfavourable EAC revision on a fixed-price lunar contract; the 587M USD satellite programme failing to convert past its 45.0M USD authority to proceed.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • KEEL Stock Q2 2026: Keel Infrastructure Earnings - 985 Megawatts Priced, Zero Signed
    Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) Q2 2026 — The 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 06:52 ET on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session. The stock barely gapped - it opened 3.85 USD against a 3.88 USD close - then bled all session and finished 3.40 USD, down 12.37 pct, on just 0.74x normal volume.
    Keel - formerly Bitfarms - did not lose its revenue, it switched it off. Bitcoin mining was 85 pct of the quarter, and every U.S. site was decommissioned inside the period, the last three on June 29. So the sequential decline is deliberate, and it is the smallest one still to come. What replaces it is a 2,161 MW pipeline with ZERO megawatts under a customer lease.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - THE POWER IS REAL, THE CUSTOMERS ARE NOT SIGNED) — base-case value ~$1.89 vs ~$3.51 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 1.89 USD vs the 3.51 USD close on August 14 - about 46 pct BELOW the tape and 66 pct below the 5.60 USD Street consensus. Per-megawatt development NPV: bear 0.33 (30 pct), base 1.42 (45 pct), bull 4.63 (25 pct).
    - REVENUE: 30.4M USD, down 50.0 pct year over year and down 17.7 pct from 37.0M USD in Q1. Bitcoin mining was 25.9M USD of it (85 pct), energy sales 2.4M, electrical services 2.0M, hosting 0.2M. By geography: U.S. 11.4M, Quebec 19.1M.
    - THE BLACKOUT: all four U.S. sites were decommissioned inside the quarter - Washington State on April 28, then Panther Creek, Scrubgrass and Sharon on June 29, the second-to-last day. The 10-Q: as of August 7 no HPC operations had commenced and no related revenue was recognised.
    - CAPACITY: 2,161 gross MW pipeline, of which 648 MW is secured data centre capacity (a UTILITY supply agreement, NOT a tenant) and 1,513 MW is expansion under load study. 341 MW is energised, but 123 MW of that has no energy service agreement. Under customer contract: ZERO.
    - PER SHARE: loss from continuing operations 0.11 USD vs a 0.068 USD bar - a four-cent MISS. NOTE THE BASIS: feeds carry 0.24 USD for Q1, the TOTAL including discontinued ops; on the continuing basis Q1 was 0.21 USD. A 77.0M USD derivative gain and 63.0M USD of accelerated depreciation nearly cancel inside it.
    - BALANCE SHEET: 819M USD of liquidity at August 7 (698M cash, 121M bitcoin) against 1.046bn USD of convertibles at 1.375 and 1.25 pct due 2031 and 2032, which add 147.5M shares. Net debt 177.9M. Book equity 328.7M, about 0.53 USD a share.
    - WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: each leased MW is worth about 2.26M USD today (0.95M NOI, 8.75 pct cap, 7.60M build, discounted 3 years at 13 pct). The 2.17bn USD market cap implies 985 MW leased - 46 pct of the pipeline and 152 pct of secured capacity. The Street's 5.60 USD needs 1,557 MW.
    - STREET: 5.60 USD consensus across 5 firms, median 5.50, range 3.00 to 8.00. Four buy and one overweight; not one hold, not one sell. Verified by firm and date: Alliance Global Partners 7.00 (cut from 8.00 on print day), BTIG 8.00, H.C. Wainwright 5.50, Chardan 4.50, Cantor Fitzgerald 3.00.
    What to watch: UP: an 8-K Item 1.01 announcing a definitive lease with a NAMED counterparty, a stated term, a megawatt figure and a start date; Quebec approval of the Sherbrooke 96 MW conversion. DOWN: the 60.8M USD letter of credit due by January 31 2027 going unposted; a third quarter of negotiations with no signature.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • BRUN Stock Q2 2026: Boost Run Earnings - The Loss Is An Artifact, The Capex Is Not
    Boost Run Inc. (BRUN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 08:46 ET on Friday August 14, so August 14 is the reaction session). The stock gapped to 26.25 USD against a 22.55 USD prior close, ran to 26.90 USD (+19.3 pct), then fell to 21.93 USD and closed 22.93 USD - just +1.69 pct, giving back 91 pct of the gain on 8.3x normal volume.
    Boost Run's first earnings as a public company produced a 75.0M USD GAAP net loss and a 1.67 USD loss per diluted Class A share - and almost none of that is an operating event. 55.7M USD of it (74 pct) is a one-time non-cash deferred tax recognised when the operating LLC converted to a C-corporation at the de-SPAC closing. Strip it, plus stock compensation and debt extinguishment, and the adjusted net loss is 10.8M USD and EBITDA is POSITIVE. Revenue grew 270 pct, organically. The bears read this print wrong. We are still sellers, because the 1.9bn USD backlog implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex on the company's own ratio - against 120.2M USD of cash and 100.0M USD of equity.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE - REAL DEMAND, UNFUNDED PLAN) — base-case value ~$17.02 vs ~$22.93 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value 18.00 USD vs the 22.93 USD close on August 14 - about 21 pct BELOW the tape and 60 pct below the 45.00 USD Street consensus. Scenario-weighted on year-end ARR: bear 200M at 4.0x = 5.73 USD (25 pct), base 300M at 6.5x = 17.02 USD (50 pct), bull 400M at 9.0x = 32.22 USD (25 pct).
    - REVENUE: 31.1M USD, up 270 pct from 8.4M USD, and organic - clusters coming online, not an acquisition. Six-month revenue 42.1M USD vs 12.6M USD. NOTE: the data feeds carry 18.0M USD for this quarter and are 42 pct light; 42.1M less the 11.0M first quarter reproduces 31.1M exactly.
    - THE LOSS: GAAP net loss 75.0M USD, of which 55.7M USD (74 pct) is a ONE-TIME NON-CASH deferred tax under ASC 740-10-25-32, booked when the LLC became a C-corporation at the May 8 de-SPAC close. Adjusted net loss 10.8M USD. EBITDA POSITIVE 3.9M USD; adjusted EBITDA 12.3M USD (40 pct margin).
    - PER SHARE: GAAP diluted loss 1.67 USD per Class A share; adjusted 0.24 USD - both on 45,032,269 diluted weighted-average Class A shares. The feeds print 0.48 USD on TWO rows, a duplication defect, matching neither. Dual class: 47.3M Class A and 29.5M Class B, 76.8M total at June 30.
    - THE CASH FLOW ILLUSION: first-half operating cash flow was 114.2M USD, but 112.9M USD of it (99 pct) is an increase in CUSTOMER DEPOSITS - prepayments for compute not yet delivered. The company's own deck says it should not be run-rated. Underlying: 1.3M USD.
    - THE FUNDING GAP: the 1.9bn USD backlog at the company's own 1.2x-1.4x contracted-value-to-capex ratio implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex. Against 120.2M USD cash, 100.0M USD equity, 642.2M USD liabilities, 238.1M USD finance leases and a 0.87 current ratio.
    - BACKLOG AND ARR: total contract value 1.9bn USD as of July 31, over 1bn USD signed in the quarter. ARR tripled from 30M to 145M USD against a 400M USD year-end target - a further 2.8x in six months. Six data centres live, three more coming, 253MW of power.
    - GOVERNANCE FLAG: Boost Run did NOT file its 10-Q. It filed a Form 12b-25 late notice the same morning it reported - the SECOND consecutive quarter. Every figure here is from the unaudited 8-K earnings deck, not a filed financial statement.
    What to watch: UP: the late 10-Q lands clean with low customer concentration; year-end ARR tracks toward 400M USD; lease financing stays open. DOWN: a shelf or at-the-market equity programme; ARR growth below a 2.8x six-month pace; a customer-concentration disclosure showing the backlog leans on a few names.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • COGT Stock Q2 2026: Cogent Biosciences Earnings - The Science Won, The Price Already Paid
    Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 08:06 ET on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session): no revenue at all, net loss 96.4M USD, GAAP loss per share 0.52 USD vs a 0.55 bar. The print moved the stock just 2.03 pct on 0.68x volume - then a 400M USD equity program was filed at 17:17 the same day and the next session fell 6.81 pct.
    Cogent has won. PEAK is the first positive Phase 3 in second-line GIST in over twenty years, three NDAs are filed and two PDUFA dates land inside twenty weeks. The stock is up 249 pct in a year. And at 17:17 on the afternoon it reported, Cogent registered another 400M USD of stock.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - GREAT DRUG, FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$26.14 vs ~$37.93 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 26.48 USD vs the 37.93 USD close on August 14 - about 30 pct BELOW the tape, and 45 pct below the 47.80 USD Street consensus. With no revenue and no earnings to put a multiple on, this is a probability-weighted NPV: bear 20.47, base 26.14, bull 33.15, weighted 25/50/25. Even the bull case sits below the price.
    - THE QUARTER (ended June 30, 2026): NO revenue line at all - the income statement opens at operating expenses. R and D 70.8M USD, up 13.8 pct. G and A 31.8M USD, up 137.9 pct on the commercial build. Net loss 96.4M USD, up 31.1 pct. Loss per share 0.52 USD via the TWO-CLASS method; a flat division gives 0.56 and is wrong.
    - THE ANGLE - THE PRICE OF THE WIN: on November 7, 2025, the Friday BEFORE the PEAK read-out, Cogent lifted its ATM ceiling from 75M to 300M USD. The Monday after, the stock rose 119 pct in one session. Eight days later it sold 230.0M USD of 1.625 pct converts at 44.95 USD with NO capped call - then filed a NEW 400M USD program on print day.
    - THE DILUTION, FULLY COUNTED: the 10-Q cover shows 173,524,982 shares at August 6, yet the screens print a 6,481M USD market cap - implying only 170.9M. Add preferred as-converted, 5.12M convert shares, 27.11M options at 11.08 USD, restricted stock and the new program: 235.6M claims, 35.8 pct more paper than the screen shows.
    - THE EVIDENCE IS GENUINELY STRONG: PEAK Phase 3 in second-line GIST gave median PFS of 16.5 months vs 9.2 on sunitinib alone, hazard ratio 0.50, and a 46 pct response rate vs 26 pct. APEX in advanced systemic mastocytosis: 65 pct response. But overall survival in PEAK is still IMMATURE, and survival is what payers price.
    - CASH AND RUNWAY: 792.3M USD at June 30 plus 73.6M raised since gives 865.9M USD pro forma, against 230.0M USD of converts. Operating burn was 164.2M USD across the half - 82.1M a quarter, or 10.5 quarters. Management guides into late 2028, but that assumes burn never rises through a launch. Runway and dilution are the same decision.
    What to watch: UP: approval on November 30 (GIST) and December 30 (non-advanced SM); the avapritinib-switch SUMMIT extension reading out by year end; the equity program left undrawn into strength. DOWN: a complete response letter on either filing; the 400M USD program drawn hard after approval; AYVAKIT holding share.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    13 min

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