Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • BKD Stock Q2 2026: Brookdale Senior Living Earnings - The Margin That Never Moved
    Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K cleared EDGAR 16:18 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened +2.41 pct at USD14.02, traded up to USD14.33, then CLOSED -8.33 pct at USD12.55 on 3.34x normal volume. By August 14 it closed USD12.64.)
    Brookdale is the largest US senior housing operator - 541 communities, 43,320 units, 41 states. Q2 occupancy reached 82.4 pct, up 230 bps, and RevPAR rose 8.2 pct. But in the same 515 communities held through both years, operating margin was 29.5 pct a year ago and 29.5 pct now: Brookdale's own supplemental prints the change as ZERO basis points. And the year-on-year occupancy gain has faded from +210 bps in January to +50 bps in July.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL RECOVERY ON THE WRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE) — base-case value ~$8.36 vs ~$12.64 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD8.36 vs the USD12.64 close, -33.9 pct. Three roads weighted 40/25/35: owned assets at a 7 pct cap rate USD7.92, an equity DCF on Brookdale's own Adjusted Free Cash Flow at 11 pct USD6.53, and 12x 2027 Adjusted EBITDA USD10.18. BEAR USD5.48, BULL USD13.81.
    - THE ANGLE - SAME-COMMUNITY MARGIN GAINED ZERO BASIS POINTS. 29.5 pct in Q2 2025 and 29.5 pct in Q2 2026; the supplemental prints the change as 0 bps. That is on a 110 bp occupancy gain and 5.5 pct RevPAR growth. Incremental margin was 30.1 pct - the same as the average, so no operating leverage.
    - THE RAMP IS DECELERATING. Same-community occupancy vs the same month a year earlier: Jan +210 bps, Feb +180, Mar +120, Apr +130, May +120, Jun +90, Jul +50. Seven months of 2026 added 30 bps in total; the same seven months of 2025 added 190. Monthly reporting ends after December 2026.
    - WHY: LABOUR COOLED, NOTHING ELSE DID. Same-community labour rose 3.6 pct and fell to 45.2 pct of revenue from 46.1. Every other facility cost - insurance, maintenance, bad debt - rose 9.1 pct, to 25.3 pct from 24.4. The leak moved rather than closed.
    - THE PRINT: GAAP EPS USD0.10 vs a -USD0.0555 bar, but a USD45.4M gain on selling six communities is larger than the USD23.3M of net income it sits inside. Ex disposal, impairment, debt extinguishment and transaction cost the quarter is -USD0.045 a share - it MET. Revenue USD718.6M missed by USD17.0M.
    - THE STACK: net debt USD3,897M, adjusted net debt USD5,067M, 8.4x leverage, book equity NEGATIVE USD29.0M. Refinancings priced at 5.38 pct in March, 5.97 pct in June and 6.16 pct in July, against a 5.09 pct book. Adjusted EBITDA USD122.1M, +4.3 pct, but -6.9 pct sequentially.
    - WHAT REACHES THE EQUITY: Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Brookdale's own measure, was USD22.8M for all of 2025 and USD25.1M trailing - against a USD3.02B market value, and struck before USD22M-USD51M a year of principal. At USD12.64 the tape caps the buildings at 5.6 pct.
    What to watch: UP: same-community margin expanding about 100 bps as non-labour inflation normalises, worth roughly USD28M a year; or a re-acceleration in the monthly occupancy series before it is retired after December 2026. DOWN: the USD949M of 2028 maturities repricing above 6.5 pct.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • ORKA Stock Q2 2026: Oruka Therapeutics Earnings - A $7.4B Bet On One Drug
    Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K cleared EDGAR 07:00 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open, so August 10 IS the reaction session: opened -2.29 pct at USD96.56 and CLOSED +6.40 pct at USD105.14, on 0.68x normal volume. By August 14 it closed USD111.04, a 52-week high.)
    Oruka is a clinical-stage immunology company with no revenue, no debt and USD1.25B of cash, whose lead antibody ORKA-001 cleared 40 of 63 patients completely at Week 16 in EVERLAST-A. But two headline figures are understated: the release's USD1.1B cash omits a USD122.5M July share sale disclosed only in the 10-Q, and the USD6.70B screen market cap omits 11,428,149 Series B preferred shares. Fixed, the pipeline costs USD7.37B.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - GOOD SCIENCE AT A PRICE THE MODEL CANNOT REACH) — base-case value ~$54.31 vs ~$111.04 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD54.31 vs the USD111.04 close, -51.1 pct. Risk-adjusted sum-of-parts, every input an ASSUMPTION: peak sales x probability of success x 2.2, discounted 11 pct. BEAR USD19.36, BASE USD45.25, BULL USD97.04, weighted 25/45/30.
    - THE ANGLE - BOTH HEADLINE NUMBERS ARE UNDERSTATED. The release says cash and securities of USD1.1B at June 30. Only the 10-Q liquidity note adds that in July 2026 Oruka sold 1,499,500 shares for USD122.5M net. Pro forma cash is USD1,248.1M. The release never mentions it.
    - THE SHARE COUNT: the 10-Q cover says 66,209,699 common at July 31, and 137,138 Series B preferred convert 83.3332:1 into 11,428,149 more. Economic count 77,637,848 = USD8.62B, not the USD6.70B screens print. Enterprise value USD7.37B, not USD5.57B.
    - THE REVERSE TEST: at USD111.04, ORKA-001 alone must carry USD7.28B of risk-adjusted value - USD11.7B of peak annual sales at 50 pct odds. Skyrizi, the biggest drug in the class, did USD17.562B in 2025 (AbbVie FY25). The Street's USD153.25 needs USD17.0B.
    - THE QUARTER: R&D USD43.3M (+80 pct, incl a one-time USD5.0M Halozyme upfront), G&A USD6.9M, opex USD50.1M, interest income USD8.9M, net loss USD41.2M, EPS -USD0.55. No warrant or preferred revaluation - other income is USD4 THOUSAND. Pure burn.
    - RUNWAY IS NOT THE CONSTRAINT: USD1,248.1M against USD56.7M of H1 operating cash use is about 44 quarters. The calendar is: EVERLAST-A Week 28 end-Q3, EVERLAST-B Week 16 Q4, ORKA-004 into clinic Q4, EVERLAST-A 52-week DECEMBER. Cash funds a BLA FILING only.
    - STACKED THIRD-PARTY ECONOMICS: ORKA-001 and ORKA-002 are licensed in from Paragon Therapeutics, a related party whose board Fairmount appoints. Low single-digit royalty each; Halozyme takes MID single-digit plus USD150.0M of sales milestones; WuXi under 1 pct.
    What to watch: UP: December 2026 EVERLAST-A 52-week data showing responses hold at six-month dosing intervals, which turns convenience into a label and lifts our 50 pct probability of success; also EVERLAST-B Week 16 across 187 patients in Q4. DOWN: any loss of response between Week 28 and Week 52, or a Phase 3 program that slips past 1H 2027.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • EMBJ Stock Q2 2026: Embraer Earnings - A $110M Raise With $4M Of Business
    Embraer (EMBJ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 06:19 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open, so August 10 IS the reaction session: opened +8.00 pct at USD78.85 and CLOSED just +1.08 pct at USD73.80, then fell to USD71.39 - BELOW the pre-print close - the next day.)
    Embraer posted its best-ever second quarter - USD2,235.3M of revenue, up 23 pct, 65 aircraft delivered, a record USD34.5B backlog - and lifted 2026 guidance. But its own release splits the ~USD110M increase into USD68M of tax credit, USD38M of tariff exemption and USD4M of improved business. Delivery and revenue guidance never moved.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD PLANEMAKER ON A FULL PRICE, WITH A BIG SECOND-HALF RAMP TO PROVE) — base-case value ~$68.39 vs ~$75.38 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD68.39 per ADS vs the USD75.38 close, -9.3 pct. A probability-weighted 2028 grid: BEAR USD8.9B revenue at 9.0 pct exited at 11.5x = USD41.97; BASE USD10.0B at 10.5 pct at 14.0x = USD67.32; BULL USD11.0B at 12.0 pct at 16.0x = USD96.97. Weighted 25/50/25, net debt USD123.6M off each, discounted 2 years at 10 pct.
    - THE ANGLE - A USD110M RAISE WITH USD4M OF BUSINESS IN IT: Embraer's own release attributes the increase to the 2026 adjusted EBIT midpoint to (a) USD68M from an extraordinary tax credit, (b) USD38M from the exemption of direct US import tariffs in 2H26 and (c) USD4M from an improved business outlook. That is 96 pct tax and trade policy. Deliveries were reiterated at 80-85 commercial and 160-170 executive jets; revenue was reiterated at USD8.2-8.5B.
    - THE CLEAN MARGIN WENT DOWN: adjusted EBIT margin printed 13.3 pct against 10.5 pct. Embraer says that ex the USD68M credit and ex the USD8M of tariffs it paid, the margin was 10.6 pct. Do the same to Q2 2025 - add back its USD10.4M of tariffs - and that quarter was 11.1 pct. Revenue grew 23 pct and the underlying operating margin fell about half a point.
    - THE CASH IS CUSTOMER MONEY: adjusted free cash flow without Eve was USD401.0M, and contract liabilities - non-refundable advances taken before delivery, mainly Defence - rose USD301.2M. Strip that and the quarter is USD99.8M. The half is still MINUS USD46.1M, so the guided USD400M needs USD446.1M in 2H26. Eve used USD117.8M and is excluded.
    - THE ADS TRAP: 1 ADS = 4 ORDINARY SHARES, proven inside the filing - EPS of USD1.1880 per ADS divided by USD0.2970 per ordinary share is exactly 4.000. Embraer reports in US DOLLARS under IFRS. Our vendor's calendar carries USD1.22 (adjusted net income per ADS) while its income statement carries R$6.24 - reais at an unstated 5.186 rate - and labels neither.
    - SEGMENTS AND BACKLOG: Executive Aviation revenue USD725M (+32 pct) at a 23.4 pct adjusted EBIT margin, only 16.1 pct ex-credit and ex-tariff. Commercial Aviation revenue USD625M (+8 pct), gross margin down 10.1 to 8.4 pct and EBIT margin down 4.3 to 2.9 pct on legacy contracts. Backlog USD34.5B (+16 pct): Defence +42 pct, Commercial +15 pct, Services +12 pct, Executive just +5 pct.
    What to watch: UP: a September quarter at 10.0-10.6 pct adjusted EBIT margin with NO tax credit inside it, plus deliveries at the top of the 80-85 commercial guide. DOWN: a fourth-quarter delivery miss, executive-jet backlog still growing at only 5 pct, or the tariff exemption being withdrawn.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • LEGN Stock Q2 2026: Legend Biotech Earnings - $657M Of Drug, No Profit
    Legend Biotech (LEGN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 07:53 ET Tuesday August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 IS the reaction session: closed +5.66 pct at USD21.83 on 1.6x volume, then gave all of it back - USD20.37 by Friday, 1.4 pct BELOW the pre-print close.)
    CARVYKTI sold USD657M worldwide in the June quarter, up 50 pct, and Legend printed its first operating profit at USD57.7M. But USD56.0M of that was a one-time Janssen milestone. Strip it and the CARVYKTI franchise contributed MINUS USD2.3M - USD190.1M of gross profit against USD192.4M of operating costs.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - AN UNSIGNED CHINA TAX DEAL AND AN INTERIM CEO SIT UNDER THE NUMBERS) — base-case value ~$20.21 vs ~$20.37 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD20.21 per ADS vs the USD20.37 close, -0.8 pct. Ladder: CARVYKTI free cash flow 2026-2035 at 11.5 pct = USD2,172M, plus a USD406M terminal = USD2,578M franchise; plus USD965M cash, less USD156M owed to the partner, plus USD230M of risk-adjusted milestones and USD300M of pipeline = USD3,917M over 193.8M ADSs.
    - THE ANGLE - THE PROFIT IS A MILESTONE, NOT A MARGIN: operating income of USD57.7M decomposes exactly. Collaboration gross profit USD190.1M less Legend's own operating costs USD192.4M = MINUS USD2.3M from the CARVYKTI franchise; plus USD60.0M of net licence income, of which USD56.0M is one-time Janssen milestones. Ex-milestone, operating income is USD1.7M.
    - THE ADS TRAP: 1 ADS = 2 ordinary shares, proven by June's offering of 7,700,000 ADSs representing 15,400,000 ordinary shares. Legend reports EPS of USD0.09 - that is PER ORDINARY SHARE. Per ADS, the security that trades at USD20.37, the same USD33.2M is USD0.18 basic. Adjusted net income of USD63.1M is USD0.34 per ADS. Data vendors publish both bases and label neither.
    - THE HEADLINE WAS FOUR WEEKS OLD: Legend pre-released CARVYKTI net trade sales of approximately USD657M in a separate 6-K on July 15, 27 days before the print. US sales grew 32 pct to USD472M, everywhere else 128 pct to USD185M. J and J books the sale; Legend recognises a pro-rata 50 pct as collaboration revenue - USD328.5M less USD2.4M of currency = USD326.1M.
    - THE CASH DISAGREES: the profitable quarter used USD20.9M of operating cash, and the half used USD106.0M against six-month operating income of USD7.9M. Legend repaid USD170.9M of debt as the partner's interest-bearing advanced funding fell from USD319.1M to USD156.4M. June's raise - 7.7M ADSs at USD29.35 - substantially went to paying J and J back; the greenshoe expired unexercised.
    - THE MARGIN AND THE MULTIPLE: collaboration gross margin was 58.3 pct in June against 41.2 pct in March, and management guided September to the low-50s and December to the mid-50s - both BELOW what was just printed. On EV over annualised gross profit Legend costs 4.0x against a five-peer median of 13.3x, but its own opex of USD770M a year is 99 pct of that gross profit. Effective tax rate: 40.2 pct.
    What to watch: UP: a September quarter that holds the 58.3 pct margin instead of the guided low-50s, an operating profit with no milestone in it, or a permanent CEO. DOWN: bispecifics taking 2L-4L myeloma share, a margin print in the 40s, or a PRC tax assessment above the accrual.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • GLNG Stock Q2 2026: Golar LNG Earnings - A $2.45B Ship With No Charter
    Golar LNG (GLNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 06:57 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened +8.2 pct at USD55.27, closed +0.27 pct at USD51.21 on 2.4x volume.)
    Golar LNG printed its best quarter ever - revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct, Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct - and the stock gave back 97 pct of an 8.2 pct opening gain by the close. The same release committed USD2.45B to a fourth FLNG that has no charter, in the fortnight FLNG Hilli finished Cameroon and stopped earning until H2 2027.
    THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, MEDIUM - A LIVE SALE PROCESS IS THE ONE THING NO DCF CAN PRICE) — base-case value ~$34.00 vs ~$52.49 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: REDUCE, 3/5. Fair value USD34 vs the USD52.49 close, -35 pct, from a sum-of-the-parts DCF: FLNG Gimi USD1,485M at 9 pct, Hilli USD2,181M and Esperanza USD2,758M at 11 pct, less USD1,013M capex to finish them, less USD707M for the uncontracted FLNG Four, less USD450M overhead, plus USD77M of stakes = USD4,331M EV, less USD1,773M net debt, plus a USD914M commodity tranche.
    - THE ANGLE - A FOURTH SHIP WITH NO CUSTOMER: on August 12 Golar signed the EPC for a second 3.5 MTPA MKII FLNG at a fully-delivered USD2.45B for year-end 2029 delivery. It lifts controlled capacity 41 pct to over 12 MTPA - and it has no charter. Management puts the earnings uplift at ~50 pct, explicitly conditional on chartering it at Esperanza terms.
    - THE PRINT: revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct but USD0.8M under the USD131.3M consensus; Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct and up 21 pct on Q1's USD105.6M; net income attributable to Golar USD38.3M after USD17.6M went to the Gimi minority; USD29M of non-cash items inside it (a USD38M mark-to-market loss, a USD7M swap gain, a USD2M disposal gain).
    - THERE IS NO EPS LINE: the 6-K prints revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and net income and stops. GAAP diluted attributable to Golar is USD0.37 (USD38.3M over 102.1M shares). The USD0.54 the wires carried maps to total net income of USD55.8M - USD0.547 a share - which is BEFORE the minority interest in FLNG Gimi. The 0.547 estimate it was scored against is the same basis.
    - THE TROUGH: FLNG Hilli's 8-year Cameroon contract ended July 27 after 156 cargoes at 100 pct economic uptime, and it earns nothing until H2 2027. USD37.4M of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA - 29 pct - was realised commodity gains under that contract. Consensus models Q3 revenue of USD80M against USD130.5M delivered, and EPS of MINUS USD0.03. Full-year EPS goes USD0.97 to USD0.53 before jumping to USD4.33 in 2028.
    - THE FUNDING BRIDGE: USD3.53B of committed capex - USD279M left on the Hilli refit, USD800M to finish Esperanza, USD2.45B for FLNG Four - against USD908M of Total Golar Cash and a new USD600M RCF at SOFR plus 3.00 pct for 18 months. A USD2.02B gap still to raise. Hilli is the obvious source: USD493M of sale-and-leaseback debt against USD5.7B of backlog.
    - THE BACKLOG AND THE MULTIPLE: USD16.6B of Adjusted EBITDA backlog - USD8.0B Esperanza, USD5.7B Hilli, USD2.9B Gimi at 70 pct - and a 2029 run-rate of USD838M. EV is USD7.13B: 17.5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of USD407M, 14.0x the June quarter annualised. Only at 2029, fully funded, does it reach 9.8x - where Cheniere (10.0x), Excelerate (10.9x) and CCEC (9.9x) trade TODAY.
    What to watch: UP: a long-term charter for FLNG Four on Esperanza terms, a Hilli refinancing that releases liquidity against its USD5.7B backlog, or a bid out of the strategic review. DOWN: Esperanza slipping past Q4 2027, the San Matias pipeline financing failing, or an equity raise to fill the USD2.02B gap.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    13 min
  • MNDY Stock Q2 2026: monday.com Earnings - The Buyback Is Finished
    monday.com (MNDY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Form 6-K cleared EDGAR at 07:00 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open - so August 10 IS the reaction session. It opened down 12.6 pct at USD81.40, bottomed at USD80.22 and closed down 4.84 pct at USD88.62, then USD87.52 by August 14.)
    monday.com beat by 33 pct - non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD1.48 against a USD1.11 bar, revenue of USD364.6M up 22 pct, record non-GAAP operating income of USD61.1M. Underneath: 64 pct of that per-share growth was BOUGHT not earned, the entire USD870M buyback is spent, and the Q3 guide implies about 1 pct sequential growth. Yet at USD87.52 the enterprise value is USD2.82B - 1.9x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, with USD1.07B net cash and no debt. BUY, 3/5, fair value USD140.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - CHEAP, BUT THE CATEGORY QUESTION IS UNRESOLVED) — base-case value ~$140.00 vs ~$87.52 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD140 vs the USD87.52 close, +60 pct. Four methods converge and all four clear the price: a 5-year DCF at 10 pct gives USD155; 18x guided free cash flow plus net cash USD140; 3.0x guided revenue plus net cash USD123; 26x the Street's 2027 EPS of USD5.56 USD144.
    - THE ANGLE - THE BUYBACK IS FINISHED: non-GAAP diluted EPS rose USD0.38 y/y, but at the prior-year share count only USD0.14 came from earnings. USD0.24 - 64 pct - came from retiring 16.6 pct of the shares. The whole USD870M authorisation is spent, USD735M in H1, and no shares remain available.
    - THE PRINT: revenue USD364.6M up 21.9 pct (incl. 110bp of FX help); a GAAP operating LOSS of USD1.5M; RECORD non-GAAP operating income USD61.1M on a 17 pct margin vs 15 pct; non-GAAP diluted EPS USD1.48 vs a USD1.11 bar; GAAP EPS USD0.08. The bridge: USD41.2M of SBC plus USD21.4M restructuring.
    - THE GUIDE IS THE STORY: Q3 revenue guided USD368-370M against USD364.6M delivered - about 1.2 pct sequentially, versus 5.9 pct a year ago. The FY2026 revenue range did NOT move after a USD9.6M beat, so implied H2 revenue was quietly cut. Implied Q4 is about USD385M, up 15 pct.
    - THE RAISE THAT NEVER REACHES CASH: FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance went USD185-191M to USD230-234M - a USD44M raise. Adjusted free-cash-flow guidance stayed at USD280-290M, unchanged to the dollar, because USD30-35M of the restructuring is cash severance still to be paid.
    - THE COHORTS: customers above USD500k ARR grew 68 pct to 114 and those above USD100k grew 37 pct to 2,019. But customers with more than 10 users - 82 pct of ALL recurring revenue - grew just 6 pct to 65,783, adding 767 in the quarter. Net dollar retention slipped to 109 from 110 in March.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET AND THE MULTIPLE: USD1,072.8M of cash and securities, USD24.14 a share, 28 pct of the market cap, and NO debt. Enterprise value USD2.82B is 1.92x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, against 30.4x last September. A reverse-DCF implies MINUS 0.1 pct growth forever.
    What to watch: UP: the July 22 restructuring - a 20 pct workforce cut - shows up as margin in the March quarter and free cash flow turns back up as severance clears. DOWN: net dollar retention breaks below 105 (109 now, from 110 in March), cash flow falls y/y a fourth straight quarter, or 2027 revenue guidance lands in the low teens.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • CBRS Stock Q2 2026: Cerebras Earnings - The Beat That Isn’t
    Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Q2 2026 — Second quarter 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:09 ET Wednesday August 12, nine minutes AFTER the close - so the reaction is Thursday August 13, down 11.9 pct to USD231.01, then USD218.98 on August 14.)
    The release led with core revenue of USD209.9M, up 103 pct, and a core net loss of only USD6.9M. The 10-Q income statement says revenue was USD180.1M and the net loss was USD450.5M, or USD2.98 a share. Both are correct. The largest item between them is USD44.3M of stock Cerebras granted to its own customers, which GAAP charges AGAINST revenue and core adds back. We rate CBRS AVOID, 3/5, fair value USD91.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL BUSINESS, AT A PRICE THAT NEEDS A DECADE TO GO RIGHT) — base-case value ~$91.00 vs ~$218.98 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD91 against the USD218.98 close, -58 pct. A probability-weighted scenario DCF at a 12.5 pct cost of capital: bear USD29 at 30 pct, base USD70 at 45 pct, bull USD204 at 25 pct. The close is 1.07x our BULL case.
    - THE ANGLE - THE ADD-BACK IS THE GROWTH: GAAP revenue USD180.1M, core revenue USD209.9M. The largest item in the bridge is USD44.3M of customer-warrant amortisation, stock granted to Cerebras customers, which GAAP charges AGAINST revenue and core adds back.
    - BEAT OR MISS - BOTH WERE PUBLISHED: one vendor showed USD209.9M against a USD190.6M estimate, a 10 pct BEAT. Benzinga showed USD180.1M against USD194.2M, a 7.3 pct MISS. The bar was core: at the Q1 print Cerebras guided Q2 core revenue to about USD194.0M.
    - THE SIGN FLIP: GAAP hardware revenue FELL 23 pct to USD54.1M from USD70.3M. Core hardware revenue ROSE 17 pct to USD82.1M, because USD28.0M of the warrant charge sits there. GAAP hardware gross profit was USD978 THOUSAND, a 1.8 pct margin against 33.6 pct.
    - SEQUENTIAL: GAAP revenue went BACKWARDS, USD193.4M in Q1 to USD180.1M in Q2, -6.9 pct, while core went USD191.3M to USD209.9M, +9.7 pct. GAAP gross margin fell from 45 pct to 14.2 pct. GAAP net loss USD450.5M, minus USD2.98 a share; core net loss USD6.9M.
    - STILL TO COME: USD1.13B of customer-warrant assets are charged against reported revenue through October 2031, which is 128 pct of the whole FY2026 core revenue guide. Three customers were 34, 32 and 10 pct of Q2 revenue, and two are 76 pct of receivables.
    - CASH AND BACKLOG: first-half operating cash flow minus USD47.5M and capex USD548.9M, so free cash flow of minus USD596.4M, a capital spend of 1.47x revenue. Liquidity USD8.6B. RPO USD25.4B, 29x the FY2026 guide, but only 22 pct converts inside 24 months.
    - VALUATION: market cap USD52.0B on 237.6M shares in three classes; most feeds quote USD49.6B and miss a class. EV USD44.3B is 50.1x the FY2026 core guide and 61.5x annualised GAAP revenue. A reverse DCF needs about USD55B of revenue by 2036, 51 pct a year.
    - THE STREET: 7 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, average target USD300.50 in a USD279 to USD330 range. All four dated targets post-date the print - Morgan Stanley USD279, Wedbush USD290, Mizuho USD300 cut from USD310, UBS USD330, every one on August 13. We differ.
    What to watch: UP: GAAP gross margin recovers toward the 45 pct printed in the March quarter, capital spending falls below one dollar per dollar of revenue, or any single customer drops below 20 pct of the top line. DOWN: core gross margin lands at the bottom of the 38 to 40 pct guided for Q3 while the capacity build holds, which moves the base case toward the bear case at USD29.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • MSGE Stock Q4 FY2026: MSG Entertainment Earnings - There Is No Second Garden
    Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Q4 FY2026 — Fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2026 (year ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 08:09 ET Wednesday August 12, BEFORE the open - so the reaction session is August 12 itself, up 11.40 pct to USD88.42, the highest close of the year, then back to USD85.44 by August 14.)
    MSG Entertainment reported the best year in its history - revenue of USD1.06B up 13 pct, adjusted operating income of USD262.2M up 18 pct, diluted earnings of USD1.38 against USD0.77 - and did all of it without adding a single seat. It owns or leases the same five rooms it owned a year ago, so every dollar of the USD118.1M increase came from price, yield or a fuller calendar. At USD85.44 the market pays 16.5x adjusted operating income against 7.6x at last August's low. We rate MSGE REDUCE, 4/5, fair value USD60.
    THE CALL: REDUCE (4/5, HIGH - AN EXCELLENT YEAR, ALREADY PAID FOR TWICE OVER) — base-case value ~$60.00 vs ~$85.44 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: REDUCE, 4/5. Fair value USD60 against the USD85.44 close, -29.8 pct. Four independent methods converge: a ten-year DCF on owner earnings gives USD57, 12.5x EV to adjusted operating income USD63, 27x the Street's FY2027 estimate USD63, owner earnings capitalised at 3.5 pct USD54. Not one reaches the market price.
    - THE ANGLE - NO SECOND GARDEN: revenue rose 13 pct to a record USD1.06B with ZERO new venues and ZERO new seats. The same five rooms - The Garden, Radio City, the Beacon, the Chicago Theatre, the Infosys Theater - seat 2,800 to 21,000, and that is fixed. All growth is price, yield or calendar density.
    - THE FY2026 BRIDGE: entertainment revenue rose USD97.8M - concerts USD33.4M, Christmas Spectacular USD20.9M, the MSG Sports arena-licence split USD17.5M, other live events USD13.2M, sponsorship and suites USD10.9M. The 10-K notes the concert gain was partly offset by FEWER concerts at the theatres.
    - THE PRINT: FY2026 revenue USD1,060.8M up 12.5 pct; operating income USD141.5M up 15.9 pct; adjusted operating income USD262.2M up 17.8 pct on a 24.7 pct margin; net income USD66.2M up 76.8 pct; diluted EPS USD1.38 vs USD0.77. Fiscal Q4 revenue USD196.3M up 27 pct on an operating LOSS of USD8.6M.
    - THE CASH IS HALF TIMING: operating cash flow tripled to USD351.4M, but USD180.8M of it - 51 pct - is working capital, mostly USD126.0M of accrued liabilities the 10-K ties to promoter event-settlement timing. Strip every working-capital line and cash generation was USD170.6M vs USD159.2M, up 7 pct.
    - CONCENTRATION AND TAX: one 92-year-old Christmas show is 18 pct of annual revenue, grown by 15 extra performances and higher ticket yield in the same 6,000-seat hall. The effective tax rate is 38 pct - 21 points federal, 16 New York State and City, 4 of disallowed pay - so MSGE keeps 62 cents per pre-tax dollar.
    - WHAT MANAGEMENT DID: MSGE repurchased 623,271 Class A shares in FY2026 for about USD25M, an average of USD40.11. It bought NOTHING in the June quarter and left USD44.8M of authority unused at USD85.44. Net debt is USD285M, just 1.09x adjusted operating income against a 3.50x covenant. The balance sheet is not the issue.
    What to watch: UP: management restarts the buyback here - it bought 623,271 shares in FY2026 at an average of USD40.11, none at all in the June quarter, and USD44.8M of authority sits unused. DOWN: the September quarter, reported early November, decelerates toward the low single digits the Street already models, and 16.5x compresses toward the 12.4x 200-day average.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • INSW Stock Q2 2026: International Seaways Earnings - A Record Quarter, And A Red Day
    International Seaways (INSW) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 07:30 ET on Monday August 10, BEFORE the open - so the reaction session is Monday August 10 itself, down 2.18 pct to USD90.40. The shares then recovered to USD97.05 by Friday August 14, a 12-month closing high.)
    International Seaways printed the best quarter in its ten-year history - record net income of USD294.9M, record adjusted EBITDA of USD345.2M, record free cash flow of USD260.7M and the largest dividend it has ever declared - and the shares closed DOWN 2.18 pct on the day. The whole quarter is rate, not scale: revenue days FELL 17.1 pct because seven ships were sold in the first quarter, while the blended TCE rate went to USD79,726 a day from USD28,740. At USD97.05 the market pays about 1.20x the value of the fleet itself. We rate INSW HOLD, 3/5, fair value USD83.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A SUPERB QUARTER, AT A PRICE ABOVE THE FLEET THAT EARNED IT) — base-case value ~$83.00 vs ~$97.05 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD83 against the USD97.05 close, -14.5 pct. Built from mid-cycle distributable cash of USD9.34 a share (USD42,500 a day blended TCE over 22,000 revenue days, less USD21,341 of cash breakeven) capitalised at 11 pct, blended with net asset value of USD81.04.
    - THE ANGLE - RATE, NOT SCALE: revenue days FELL 17.1 pct to 5,446 from 6,570 after seven ships were sold in Q1, yet TCE revenue rose 129.9 pct. The blended rate went to USD79,726 a day from USD28,740, up 2.77x. Every dollar of the increase is price. None of it is volume.
    - THE PRINT: shipping revenue USD467.3M up 138.8 pct; TCE revenue USD434.2M up 129.9 pct; adjusted EBITDA USD345.2M up 240 pct; net income USD294.9M against USD61.6M; diluted EPS USD5.91 against USD1.25; free cash flow USD260.7M, beating the prior record by nearly USD100M. All company records.
    - THE BAR AND THE BASIS: GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted EPS are BOTH USD5.91 this quarter - the only reconciling item was a USD43,000 disposal LOSS. Consensus was USD5.55 on one feed and USD5.28 on another, so the beat is 6 to 12 pct. Q1 2026's USD5.75 included USD88M of vessel gains, about USD1.77 a share.
    - NO HEDGE IN THE BOOK: the time charters are not fixed. The VLCC charter bucket earned USD214,216 a day against USD118,883 on spot, on profit sharing. Only 13 vessels are on charter, averaging 1.5 years and USD240M of contracted revenue to expiry - against USD434M earned in this one quarter.
    - THE DIVIDEND: a record USD5.05 declared August 7, payable September 24 to holders of record September 10. It costs USD250M against USD260.7M of free cash flow, so it consumes 96 pct of it. Policy is 85 pct of adjusted net income, so it tracks the spot rate. LTM declared USD12.61 is 13.0 pct at USD97.05.
    - PRICED ABOVE THE STEEL: the company's own approximately 6 pct net loan-to-value implies a fleet market value of USD3.94B against USD2.19B of carrying value. Marked to it, NAV is USD81.04 a share and the stock trades at 1.20x. The Street is 10 buy and 3 hold, but its USD93.33 average target sits BELOW the close.
    What to watch: UP: the September-quarter blended TCE rate, reported in early November, prints above USD42,500 a day again - which would say our mid-cycle assumption is too low - or the shares move back toward the USD81.04 of net asset value. DOWN: the blended rate normalises toward USD30,000 a day, which is only USD3.82 a share of cash on this cost base, and vessel values re-rate with it, taking the asset floor down alongside the earnings.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • REZI Stock Q2 2026: Resideo Earnings - The 20% Drop That Wasn’t A Guidance Cut
    Resideo (REZI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to July 4; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:18 ET on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close - so the reaction session is Thursday August 13, down 20.42 pct to USD20.46 on 7.9M shares, 3.3x normal volume.)
    Resideo beat on revenue, on Adjusted EBITDA and on Adjusted EPS, printed a record 43.6 pct gross margin at Products and Solutions, and fell 20.42 pct the next session. The reason given was that 2026 guidance came in USD341M of EBITDA below consensus. It did not. Resideo spun off ADI Global Distribution on August 3, ten days before the print, and consensus had not been rebased.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - THE SELL-OFF WAS MOSTLY ARITHMETIC, THE DISCOUNT IS ONLY MODEST) — base-case value ~$23.27 vs ~$20.50 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD23.27 against the USD20.50 close, +13.5 pct, from a ten-year owner-earnings DCF off the company's own guidance at a 9.0 pct discount rate and 2.25 pct terminal growth. At 9.5 pct the model prints USD20.91 - almost exactly the tape. We are BELOW all three post-spin Street targets.
    - THE PHANTOM CUT: FY26 Adjusted EBITDA consensus was USD956M on the OLD consolidated company; the standalone guide is USD605-625M. Oppenheimer, carrying USD949M before the print, rebased its own standalone number to USD611M - four million BELOW the USD615M guide midpoint. Nothing was cut. The models had not caught up.
    - THE PRINT: revenue USD1,981M, up 2.0 pct, a record. Products and Solutions USD695M up 4.4 pct, ADI USD1,286M up 0.7 pct. P and S gross margin 43.6 pct, up 70bps, the 13th straight quarter of expansion. Adjusted EBITDA USD249M up 18.6 pct. Adjusted EPS USD0.83 vs USD0.66. GAAP diluted USD0.51.
    - THE BAR: one widely used data feed shows a USD0.4695 estimate, making this a 77 pct beat. That feed's estimate has landed BELOW its own reported actual in each of the last five quarters, by 18 to 43 pct. The real consensus was USD0.68 and the real beat was 22.1 pct. Revenue beat a USD1,940M bar by 2.1 pct.
    - WHAT THE RECORD WAS MADE OF: USD27M of tariff refunds sit inside that gross margin, and about USD20M of it was earned by ADI, which left on August 3. A USD77M gain on terminating the Honeywell Tax Matters Agreement sits in other income, against USD44M of deferred tax assets written off and USD88M of cash paid out.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET IMPROVED: total debt went USD3,622M to USD2,322M - USD400M of notes went with ADIG and a USD900M dividend from ADIG retired the 2028 term loan in full plus USD382M of the 2031 tranche. Net debt USD1,773M is 2.9x guided EBITDA against 3.3x consolidated before the spin. USD500M revolver undrawn.
    - WHAT NO SCREEN SHOWS: on August 3 the preferred conversion price was reset from USD26.92 to USD18.844. At a USD20.50 close that is in the money - 350,000 preferred shares, USD350M of liquidation preference, about 18.6M shares, 12.2 pct dilution. Separately, one data feed prints a USD4,461M market value; the real figure is USD3,113M on 151,847,378 shares.
    What to watch: UP: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA lands at the top of the USD145-155M guide, the extra USD200M term loan repayment completes, and the 13-quarter gross margin run continues. DOWN: the large OEM security customer slowdown proves to be a pattern rather than one contract, margin stalls, and the preferred converts at USD18.844 into 18.6M shares.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min

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⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close:…