Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • TME Stock Q2 2026: Tencent Music Beat Twice And Fell 12% - The Growth Was Bought
    Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; released before the open on Tuesday August 11, so August 11 is the reaction session): total revenue RMB 8,933M (US$1,317M) vs a US$1,300M bar, non-IFRS EPS US$0.25 per ADS vs a US$0.24 bar - a beat on both lines, and the stock still fell 11.9%.
    Tencent Music beat on revenue and earnings and fell 11.9% anyway. Revenue rose RMB 491M - and RMB 407M of that came from Ximalaya, acquired May 18. Organic growth was 1.0%. The metrics that would prove otherwise were withdrawn in March.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP BUT UNAUDITABLE) — base-case value ~$11.33 vs ~$8.84 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $11.38 vs the $8.84 close on August 14, about 29% higher - and we are still not buyers. This is an EV/owner-earnings grid: non-IFRS profit less all stock compensation and half the deal amortisation. Bear $8.58 (8.0x), base $11.33 (10.5x), bull $14.27 (13.0x), weighted 25/50/25. Headline Street target is $15.22, but targets written since the print average $11.50.
    - THE QUARTER (ended June 30, 2026; IFRS, in RMB at 6.7851/USD): revenue RMB 8,933M (US$1,317M), up 5.8%. Music related services RMB 7,605M, up 11.0%. Social entertainment RMB 1,328M, down 16.4%. Gross margin 44.2%. IFRS diluted EPS per ADS RMB 1.57 (US$0.23); non-IFRS RMB 1.70 (US$0.25). One ADS = two Class A shares, per the 6-K.
    - THE ANGLE - 83% OF THE GROWTH WAS ACQUIRED: revenue rose RMB 491M, and the release states Ximalaya, consolidated from May 18 (about six weeks), contributed RMB 407M. Strip it and organic growth was 1.0%. Music related services grew 11.0% reported, 5.0% ex-Ximalaya. The six-week stub annualises near RMB 3.4bn, so Q3 reported growth improves and means less.
    - AND THE METRICS THAT WOULD CHECK IT ARE GONE: on March 17, 2026, under Planned Disclosure Change, TME discontinued quarterly online-music MAU, paying users and ARPPU, reporting total paying users annually instead. Last disclosed: 127.4M paying users, ARPPU RMB 11.9 (flat two quarters), MAU 528M, down 5.0% and falling faster. Four downgrades followed within days.
    - THE CASH IS SMALLER THAN THE HEADLINE: cash, deposits and short-term investments rose 16.2% to RMB 44,222M (US$6,518M). But borrowings went from zero at December 31 to RMB 13,139M for Ximalaya; total debt is RMB 16,529M. Net cash is RMB 27,693M (US$4,082M), DOWN 19.8% in six months. Operating cash flow was strong at RMB 2,864M, up 74.8%.
    - THE BUYBACK DOES NOT SURVIVE DECOMPOSITION: TME repurchased 43.5M ADSs for US$400.0M at an average US$9.2 - yet weighted-average basic ADSs ROSE 2.2%, to 1,564.2M. Treasury shares rose RMB 2,725M while paid-in capital rose RMB 5,014M: roughly twice as much stock issued as retired. Tencent holds 93.6% of the votes in this Cayman-incorporated VIE.
    What to watch: UP: the annual paying-user figure showing the base compounded through the blackout; Q3 separating Ximalaya from the organic base; the ADS count finally shrinking. DOWN: another quarter of ~1% organic growth; net cash falling again; a year-end disclosure with no ARPPU beside it.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • CRC Stock Q2 2026: EPS Missed 27% And The Stock Rose - The Hedge Book Explains Both
    California Resources Corporation (CRC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; released before the open on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session): total revenue $1,297M vs a $960M bar, GAAP EPS $5.76, adjusted EPS $0.99 vs a $1.36 bar - a 27% miss. The stock gapped down 1.6%, then closed up 3.21%, and finished August 14 at $53.31.
    California Resources printed a 35% revenue beat and a 27% adjusted EPS miss in the same release, and both came out of the commodity derivative book. Marking the open hedge position to market created a $370M non-cash gain booked inside revenue; settling the hedges that expired cost $165M in cash. Strip the mark and revenue is $1,092M - a 13.7% beat, not 35%.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP ON CASH, FLAT ON OPERATIONS) — base-case value ~$56.43 vs ~$53.31 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $57.84 vs the $53.31 close on August 14, about 8% higher. This is an EV/adjusted-EBITDAX grid, not an earnings multiple, because GAAP profit here is dominated by derivative marks. Bear $37.85 ($1,150M at 4.0x), base $56.43 ($1,250M at 5.0x), bull $80.64 ($1,400M at 6.0x), weighted 25/50/25. The Street is Buy - 18 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell - with an $80.00 average target. We are 28% below them.
    - THE QUARTER (three months ended June 30, 2026): total operating revenues $1,297M vs a $960M consensus. Revenue BEFORE commodity derivatives - the company's own line - was $1,092M, up 33% from $821M. GAAP net income $514M, diluted EPS $5.76 vs $1.92. Adjusted net income $88M, adjusted EPS $0.99 vs a $1.36 bar and vs $1.10 a year ago. Zacks put the bar at $1.31 and the miss at 24%.
    - THE ANGLE - ONE HEDGE BOOK MADE BOTH HEADLINES: marking the open position to market produced a $370M non-cash gain on oil plus $20M on gas, and the net $205M lands inside REVENUE. That entry is the whole difference between a 13.7% beat and the 35% one the feeds printed. Settling expired contracts cost $165M cash. Of the $5.76 GAAP EPS, $4.77 came back out in the adjustment column.
    - THE BARREL SHOWS IT WITHOUT ACCOUNTING: CRC realized $91.55 a barrel WITHOUT derivative settlements - 95% of the $96.87 Brent average. WITH hedge settlements it kept $76.43, only 79% of Brent, vs 100% a year ago. That is $15.12 a barrel handed to the counterparty on 120 thousand barrels a day. Natural gas realized $1.84 vs $3.56 in Q1.
    - THE OPERATING TRUTH: adjusted EBITDAX $338M vs $324M, up only 4.3%, on production up 8.8% to 149 MBoe/d and after absorbing the Berry merger that closed December 18, 2025. Per barrel that is a DECLINE, $25.95 to $24.94. Overhead per barrel rose 13.9% even as management captured $103M of annualized Berry synergies. First-half free cash flow fell 66%, $240M to $82M, on capital up 152%.
    - THE GUIDE POINTS DOWN: full-year adjusted EBITDAX is guided $1,200M-$1,300M. With $642M booked in the first half, the back half implies about $608M - 5.3% BELOW the half just finished. Q3 alone is guided $285M-$325M vs the $338M just delivered. What was raised was efficiency: maintenance capital cut about 5% to $450M-$475M on six rigs, not seven.
    What to watch: UP: Crimson closing in Q3 with the promised incremental guidance; adjusted EBITDAX per barrel recovering from $24.94; the hedge book rolling off toward the 95% of Brent CRC realizes unhedged. DOWN: a third quarter at the low end of the $285M-$325M guide, overhead per barrel rising above $6.57, or California permitting slowing 2027.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • YETI Stock Q2 2026: EPS Up 54%, Stock Down 11% - The Tariff Refund Behind The Beat
    YETI Holdings (YETI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (13 weeks ended July 4; 8-K accepted 6:04am ET Aug 13, before the open, so Aug 13 is the reaction session): sales $483.9M up 8.5%, GAAP EPS $0.94 up 54%, adjusted EPS $0.67 against a $0.54 bar, guidance raised. The stock fell 10.56% that day on 4.6x volume and closed Aug 14 at $44.56.
    YETI grew sales 8.5%, printed a 66.7% gross margin, raised guidance and reported EPS up 54%. The stock fell 10.6%. The reason is one line item: a $45.6M IEEPA tariff refund, about $0.40 a share, recognised in a single quarter. Strip it out and GAAP EPS is roughly $0.54 against $0.61 a year ago - and adjusted operating income FELL 6.8%.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - REAL BRAND, BROKEN OPERATING LEVERAGE) — base-case value ~$42.05 vs ~$44.56 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $41.28 against the $44.56 close on Aug 14, about 7% lower. Bear $32.40 ($2.70 at 12.0x), base $42.05 ($2.90 at 14.5x), bull $52.70 ($3.10 at 17.0x), weighted 30/50/20. Cross-checked on cash: durable free cash flow near $185M is $2.53 a share, a 6.1% yield at fair value and 5.7% at the close. The Street is Buy - 12 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell - with a $56.25 average target, 26% above the tape.
    - THE QUARTER (13 weeks ended Jul 4, 2026): sales $483.868M, up 8.5%, essentially level with the $483.8M consensus. GAAP diluted EPS $0.94 against $0.61, up 54%. Adjusted EPS $0.67 against a $0.54 bar - a 24% beat, but only about +2% year over year. Adjusted operating income FELL 6.8% to $68.240M from $73.197M. Adjusted net income fell 8.2% to $50.685M. Diluted shares fell 9.2%, 83.462M to 75.782M.
    - THE ANGLE - THE TARIFF REFUND IS THE HEADLINE: YETI concluded during the quarter that recovery of IEEPA tariffs was probable and booked a $45.6M net benefit - $42.6M as a reduction of cost of goods sold plus $2.9M of interest income. That is the whole of the 890 basis point gross margin gain (66.7% against 57.8%) and about $0.40 of GAAP EPS. Without it GAAP EPS is roughly $0.54 against $0.61 a year ago: down, not up 54%.
    - THE OPERATING LEVERAGE INVERTED: sales added $37.976M. Adjusted gross profit added $30.522M. Adjusted SG&A added $35.479M. So adjusted operating income fell $4.957M - 80 cents of new gross profit against 93 cents of new operating cost, an incremental adjusted operating margin of -13.1%. Over the first half it is -20%: sales up $67.3M, adjusted operating income down $13.5M, margin 13.6% to 11.0%. Adjusted gross margin still rose 170bps to 59.5%.
    - THE GUIDE AND WHAT IT REQUIRES: 2026 sales growth held at 7-8%; adjusted operating margin raised to 14.9% from 14.6%; adjusted EPS raised to $2.94-$3.00 from $2.83-$2.89; diluted shares cut to 75.4M from 76.6M; free cash flow held at $200M-$225M; capex $60M-$70M. That needs roughly $204M of second-half adjusted operating income against about $161M last year, up 27%, straight after a first half that fell 12.5%. The outlook assumes US tariffs return to about 20%.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET AND THE RISKS: cash fell to $59.8M from $188.3M at the year end. First-half operating cash flow was $29.8M against $40.0M of property and intangible additions, so H1 free cash flow was negative $10.2M. YETI still spent $130.0M repurchasing 2.8M shares at about $46.43 and drew a net $30M on its revolver. Inventory $359.1M, up 23.6% since December. Drinkware, half the company, grew 2%; Coolers and Equipment grew 16%.
    What to watch: UP: a September quarter where adjusted operating income grows rather than falls; free cash flow arriving on the guided path rather than through the tariff receivable; or a credible margin target at the September 17 Investor Day. DOWN: costs outrunning gross profit again, tariffs above the assumed 20%, or Drinkware stuck at 2%.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • HTFL Stock Q2 2026: Heartflow Jumped 36% On A Guide That Says The Ramp Stops
    Heartflow (HTFL) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:02pm ET Aug 13, after the close, so Friday Aug 14 is the reaction): revenue $64.1M up 47.6% and 13.1% above consensus, non-GAAP loss $0.07 vs a $0.13 bar, full-year guidance raised to $246M-$250M. The stock closed Aug 14 at $42.08, up 35.70% on 9.91M shares - 9.0x its average volume.
    Heartflow beat revenue by 13%, printed an 83.0% gross margin and raised full-year guidance by $18M. The stock gapped 35.7%. But subtract the $116.7M already booked in H1 from that raised guide and the second half implies just +1.6% sequential growth per quarter - one day after the company printed +21.9%.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - GREAT BUSINESS, FULLY PRICED) — base-case value ~$31.20 vs ~$42.08 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value $31.20 vs the $42.08 close on Aug 14, about 26% lower. Bear $9.29, base $26.89, bull $50.06, weighted 15/55/30. The Street is Buy - 5 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell across 6 firms - with a $42.83 average target that is only 2% above the tape. Conviction is 3 not 4 because our own bull case is $50.06, and the business is genuinely excellent.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $64.082M, up 47.6%, against a $56.635M consensus - a 13.1% beat. GAAP net loss $15.743M or $0.18/share; non-GAAP net loss $5.767M or $0.07/share against a $0.13 bar. The $9.976M bridge is $7.912M of stock compensation plus $2.064M of litigation expense. Adjusted EBITDA negative $6.7M vs negative $10.1M. US revenue $59.6M, up 51%.
    - THE ANGLE - WHAT THE RAISED GUIDE ACTUALLY SAYS: H1 revenue was $116.669M. Full-year guidance is $246M-$250M, up from $228M-$232M. So H2 must be $129.3M-$133.3M. Solved as two equal sequential steps off the $64.082M just printed, that is +0.6% to +2.7% per quarter, or +1.6% at the midpoint - implying Q3 near $65.1M and Q4 near $66.2M. Sequential growth ran +6.6%, +6.2%, +7.0%, then +21.9%.
    - WHAT THE MARKET REPRICED: enterprise value went from $2,442M to $3,402M, up 39.3%, while the full-year revenue midpoint went from $230M to $248M, up only 7.8%. The forward revenue multiple went 10.6x to 13.7x, up 29.2%. Decomposed, 77% of the move was multiple and 23% was the estimate change. On the $212.1M of revenue actually booked over four quarters the enterprise trades at 16.0x.
    - THE UNIT ECONOMICS ARE REAL: gross margin 83.0% from 75.5%. Cost of revenue rose just 2.3% on revenue that rose 47.6%, so incremental gross margin was 98.8%. Non-GAAP operating margin improved 14.0 points, negative 26.4% to negative 12.4%. Break-even needs about $73.6M of quarterly revenue at frozen opex, 15% above this quarter. Cash and investments $246.8M with zero debt - roughly 4.2 years of runway.
    - THE RISKS: in October 2025 Heartflow and certain employees received civil investigative demands from the DOJ under the federal Anti-Kickback Statute and Civil False Claims Act, aimed at its arrangements with providers and its sales and marketing. There are 11.7M potentially dilutive securities, 13.5% of the 86.7M shares. Three Form 144s covering 365,560 shares worth $15.3M were filed on Aug 14, the reaction day.
    What to watch: UP: a September quarter clearing $65.1M with the full-year range raised a third time, proving the June step was a slope; or the DOJ civil investigative demand closing without action. DOWN: September landing on the guide, an adverse finding on provider arrangements, or the 11.7M dilutive overhang converting into the move.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • HRB Stock Q4 FY2026: H&R Block Grew Revenue 5% With Zero New Customers
    H&R Block (HRB) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 and full fiscal 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:10pm ET Aug 11, after the close, so Aug 12 is the reaction): Q4 adjusted EPS $2.38 vs a $2.21 bar, full-year revenue $3.95B up 4.9%. The stock gapped 16.1% to $54.18 and closed the week at $53.92.
    H&R Block beat, raised its dividend a 9th straight year and guided FY2027 earnings up 15.6%. But the 10-K says total assisted tax return volume FELL 0.1% and DIY paid volume fell about 4%. All the growth was price, and the buyback supplied 47% of the earnings growth.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP, NOT RISKLESS) — base-case value ~$66.42 vs ~$53.92 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value $66.42 vs the $53.92 close on Aug 14, about 23% higher. Bear $43.95, base $69.12, bull $87.05, weighted 25/55/20. Street is a genuine Hold: 5 buy, 8 hold, 3 sell across 16 firms, target $46.50 - BELOW the tape, implying 14% downside. Conviction is 3 not 4: the bear case is a real 18% loss.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1,144.9M, up 3.0% vs a $1,118.0M consensus. Adjusted diluted EPS $2.38 vs a $2.21 bar - a 7.7% beat. GAAP continuing-ops EPS $2.31, consolidated GAAP $2.30. EBITDA $420.5M. The line nobody quoted: net income from continuing operations FELL, $300.4M to $294.5M. EPS rose anyway - the share count did it.
    - THE FULL YEAR (FY2026): revenue $3,945.4M, up 4.9%. Net income from continuing ops $736.3M, up 20.8%. EBITDA $1,056.9M, up 8.3%. Adjusted net income $688.0M, up 6.9%. Adjusted EPS $5.31, up 14.0%. GAAP continuing EPS $5.69, up 28.7% - but that includes a one-time non-cash $84.1M IRS settlement benefit worth $0.65/share. Strip it and GAAP growth is 14.0%.
    - WHERE THE GROWTH CAME FROM - the two 10-K sentences that decide this: U.S. assisted revenue rose $147.7M or 6.1%, from a 4.0% rise in NET AVERAGE CHARGE and 2.0% more COMPANY-OWNED volume. But total assisted return volume, company-owned AND franchise together, DECREASED 0.1%. DIY revenue rose 0.2% on a 4.2% price rise, so DIY paid volume fell ~4%. All growth was price; unit growth was zero.
    - THE BUYBACK DID HALF THE WORK: adjusted net income rose 6.95%, adjusted EPS rose 13.95%. The 6.55-point gap is the denominator. HRB retired 10.5M shares, 7.9% of the company, for $500.3M at an average $47.48. Diluted shares fell 6.2%, 137.3M to 128.9M. The buyback supplied 47% of adjusted EPS growth; ~$600M is left on the $1.5B authorisation.
    - THE CASH AND THE VALUATION: operating cash flow $838.7M, up 23.2%; capex only $82.6M. After $57.6M of franchise acquisitions, owner free cash flow is $698.4M - a 10.5% owner yield. Dividend raised 10% to $0.46/qtr, a 9th straight increase, 3.41% yield; $713.7M returned, a 10.7% shareholder yield. 123.3M shares off the 10-K cover, EV $7,179M: 8.8x guided FY2027 EPS, 6.4x guided EBITDA. Capitalise owner cash at 10% assuming it NEVER grows again: $52.34, roughly the share price.
    What to watch: UP: total assisted return volume turning positive in March while net average charge still rises, plus a re-authorised buyback. DOWN: assisted volume down more than a point, charge growth under 3%, or free filing reaching assisted clients.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • STUB Stock Q2 2026: StubHub Raised Volume Guidance And Not A Dollar Of Profit
    StubHub Holdings (STUB) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:28pm ET Aug 12, after the close, so Aug 13 is the reaction): GMS $3.09B up 34%, revenue $573.1M up 33.2%, adjusted EBITDA $105.7M up 94%, diluted EPS to common $(0.00). The stock fell 10.1% to $7.68, printed $6.78 intraday, and closed the week at $8.08.
    StubHub reported record GMS up 34%, revenue up 33%, adjusted EBITDA up 94%, and raised full-year volume guidance. The stock fell 10.1%. The reason is in the guidance: volume went up $200M, profit guidance did not move at all, and the raised range implies second-half volume growth of 0.2% to 4.3%.
    THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A REAL MARKETPLACE AT A PRICE ITS OWN GUIDE DENIES) — base-case value ~$3.87 vs ~$8.08 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL, 4/5. Fair value about $3.87 vs the $8.08 close on Aug 14, roughly 52% lower. Bear $1.27, base $3.27, bull $9.30, weighted 30/50/20. Our BULL case is only 15% above the price. Street: 3 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, target $10.75 - but no rating action post-dates this print. A valuation call, not a solvency call.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, 2026): GMS $3.09B, up 34% from $2.30B. Revenue $573.1M, up 33.2% against a $513.3M consensus - an 11.6% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $105.7M, up 94%, an 18% margin. Net income $14.6M vs a $53.8M loss. Diluted EPS to common is $(0.00): $14.6M of preferred dividends took the whole profit.
    - THE GUIDANCE RAISE, READ CLOSELY: full-year GMS went from $9.9-10.1B in May up to $10.1-10.3B in August. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $400-420M in May and is $400-420M in August - unchanged. Volume up $200M, profit up zero. At this quarter's take rate that $200M is worth about $37M of revenue.
    - WHAT THE RAISED GUIDE IMPLIES: first-half GMS is already banked at $5.31B. Subtract it and second-half GMS has to land between $4.79B and $4.99B against $4.78B in 2H 2025 - growth of 0.2% to 4.3%. This quarter grew 34%; Q1 2026 grew 6.8%. The 10-Q credits the 34% to the World Cup by name.
    - THE TAKE RATE WENT THE WRONG WAY: revenue was 18.55% of GMS this quarter against 18.71% a year ago, 19.05% across FY2025 and 20.40% across FY2024. Volume compounds while the fee take shrinks. The MD and A attributes growth to higher GMS per transaction - dearer tickets. FY2025 revenue fell 1.4%.
    - WHAT ADJUSTED EBITDA LEAVES OUT: $69.0M of stock compensation expensed plus $27.7M capitalised into software equals $96.7M - 92% of the $105.7M adjusted EBITDA. Annualised at the first-half rate that is $269M against a $410M guide. Enterprise value of $4.47B on that guide less stock comp is 31.7 times.
    - THE CASH AND THE STACK: of $1.69B of cash, $1.20B is money owed to sellers. TTM free cash flow of $597.6M contains $418.3M of float; ex-float it is about $179M. Ahead of a $3.09B market cap sit $930.9M of net debt and preferred carrying a $721.1M liquidation preference accruing about $60M a year.
    What to watch: UP: a take rate back above 19.5% on the November print, gross stock compensation under $120M a year, and open distribution or advertising finally showing up in the other-revenue line. DOWN: a fourth quarter implied at flat or negative volume once the World Cup rolls out of the comparison.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • KOPN Stock Q2 2026: Kopin’s First Profit Came From Below The Line
    Kopin Corporation (KOPN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 27; 8-K accepted 4:05pm ET Aug 10, after the close, so Aug 11 is the reaction): revenue $12.7M up 50.6%, loss from operations $3.5M, GAAP EPS $0.00 vs $(0.03), net income $0.83M. The stock rose 23.5% to $5.20 and closed the week at $5.50.
    Kopin reported revenue up 51% and its first net income in years. The operating line still lost $3.5M: the profit is a $2.3M investment gain plus a $2.1M tax benefit from a statute of limitations expiring on Korean operations closed in 2018.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, REAL TECHNOLOGY, ALL OF IT IN THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$2.66 vs ~$5.50 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value about $2.66 vs the $5.50 close on Aug 14, roughly 52% lower. Bear $0.67, base $2.41, bull $5.53 (30/45/25) on 2029 revenue of $70M/$130M/$220M at 2.5x/5.0x/7.0x EV-to-sales plus net cash. Our BULL case is 0.5% ABOVE the current price. Street: 5 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, target $7.83. A valuation call, not a solvency call.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 27, 2026): revenue $12.7M vs $8.5M, up 50.6%. Loss from operations $3.50M vs $5.46M. Cost of product revenue 86% of product revenue vs 94%. R and D $4.52M vs $1.95M, but $3.33M of that is FUNDED and billed back out as revenue. GAAP EPS $0.00 vs $(0.03), and Kopin publishes no non-GAAP measure at all.
    - WHERE THE GROWTH CAME FROM: revenue grew $4.28M, and $2.87M of that is NON-ASC-606 revenue that did not exist a year ago - $2.60M of government grant income and $0.27M of Fabric.AI collaboration income, 67% of the increase. ASC 606 growth is 16.7%, not 50.6%. PRODUCT revenue grew 1.9%, $7.50M to $7.64M.
    - WHERE THE PROFIT CAME FROM: below the operating line. A $2.34M gain on investments took the pre-tax loss to $1.26M, then a $2.09M tax BENEFIT - a statute of limitations expiring on Korean operations liquidated in 2018 - made it $0.83M of net income. Ex both items EPS is $(0.0191) vs a $(0.0125) bar: a 53% MISS.
    - THE PATTERN, NOT THE QUARTER: over the last four reported quarters Kopin booked $7.91M of cumulative GAAP net income on $15.08M of cumulative OPERATING LOSSES. The rescue item differed each time - litigation accrual, deconsolidation gain, investment marks, now a tax expiry. Trailing revenue $43.6M.
    - THE CASH THAT IS NOT SPENDABLE: of $50.3M of cash and restricted cash, $24.2M collateralises the supersedeas bond posted Oct 2, 2025 for the appeal of the $19.7M BlueRadios judgment. 48% of balance-sheet cash is pledged to a court, and management's own 12-month liquidity assertion uses only the $24.9M unrestricted.
    - VALUATION AND THE POSITIVES: 185,872,614 shares off the 10-Q cover at $5.50 is a $1.02B market cap, $997M EV, 22.9x trailing revenue - and 8.6x the $119.5M of 2030 revenue the SELL SIDE'S OWN model reaches. POSITIVES: H1 financing cash flow was NEGATIVE $1.10M, contract liabilities rose to $6.96M, no debt.
    What to watch: UP: Drone Dominance volume orders that land in PRODUCT revenue, not grant income, plus a successful BlueRadios appeal releasing $24.2M. DOWN: another quarter where total revenue rises but product revenue stays near $7.6M.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • YSS Stock Q2 2026: York Space Systems Cuts Guidance 32% After Reaffirming It
    York Space Systems (YSS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:06pm ET Aug 13, after the close, so Aug 14 is the reaction): revenue $92.5M up 10.4%, gross margin 24% from 11%, GAAP loss per share $0.31. Full-year guidance cut from $545M-$595M to $375M-$405M. The stock fell 5.04% to $10.93.
    York grew revenue 52% in 2025, IPO'd in January 2026, and guided the year to $545M-$595M - reaffirming it word for word on May 14. On August 13 it cut to $375M-$405M. Growth did not slow. It stopped.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, REAL FRANCHISE, GROWTH GUIDE AT ZERO) — base-case value ~$9.43 vs ~$10.93 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value about $9.43 vs the $10.93 close on Aug 14, roughly 14% lower. Bear $6.38, base $9.33, bull $13.51 (25/55/20) on 2027 revenue of $430M/$500M/$650M at 1.5x/2.1x/2.5x EV-to-sales plus net cash. The Street disagrees: 4 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell across 7 firms, consensus target $33.38. A call on the revision cycle, not on solvency.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $92.5M, up 10.4% but DOWN 20.5% from Q1's $116.3M. Gross profit $22.2M vs $9.5M, a 24% margin against 11%; cost of revenue FELL 5.3%. GAAP loss per share $0.31 vs $0.25; York reports no adjusted EPS. Adjusted EBITDA minus $9.5M vs minus $8.9M - WORSE, because SG&A rose $15.0M, more than the entire $12.7M gross profit gain.
    - THE GUIDANCE ROUND-TRIP: FY2026 revenue guidance was $545M-$595M on March 19, REAFFIRMED verbatim on May 14, then cut to $375M-$405M on August 13 - minus $180M at the midpoint (31.6%), and 30.1% below the $557.6M consensus. Against FY2025 actual revenue of $386.2M the new range is minus 2.9% to plus 4.9%, after York grew 52.3% in 2025.
    - THE IMPLIED SECOND HALF: first-half revenue was $208.9M, so the guide leaves $166.1M-$196.1M for H2 against $196.1M in H2 2025 - minus 15.3% at the low end. At the VERY TOP of management's own range the implied second half is $196.110M against $196.112M a year ago: flat to within two thousand dollars. The best case in the range is no growth.
    - WHY IT HAPPENED: 91% of Q2 revenue came from ONE customer, down from 96%. York became the first performer to COMPLETE its T1TL deliveries, putting 21 more satellites on orbit for a 42-for-42 record. The program that is essentially the whole revenue line is finished; follow-on work moves to IDIQ vehicles management concedes are slow to start. Backlog fell 7.8% to $592.0M.
    - THE COVENANT NOBODY READS: the Nov 2025 credit agreement sets a MINIMUM REVENUE covenant, trailing twelve months, tested quarterly. The Dec 31, 2026 test is $372.5M, and at a calendar year end that figure IS full-year revenue. The low end of the new guide, $375.0M, clears it by 0.7%. The March-guide cushion was $197M; now $17.5M. NOT a default warning: equity cures and a leverage toggle exist; York was in compliance at June 30.
    - THE CASH, AND WHO FUNDED THE WORK: contract liabilities - customer cash collected in advance - fell $110.3M to $18.2M. Roughly 51% of the $186.6M first-half operating burn was the float unwinding. Receivables went $11.5M to $55.8M, unbilled contract assets $76.8M to $115.0M. Cash was $534M at June 30, but All.Space took $155M out on July 8, so pro forma cash is about $379M, or $231M net of the term loan.
    What to watch: UP: a funded task order York must quantify in a filing, or 2027 guidance above the $617.0M minimum-revenue level its lenders set. DOWN: another quarter of falling backlog with task orders unfunded.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • LGN Stock Q2 2026: Legence Doubled Revenue And Wrote Off Its Green Business
    Legence Corp. (LGN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 7:23am ET Aug 13, BEFORE the open): revenue $1.262B vs a $1.074B estimate, GAAP EPS -$0.37 vs a $0.37 bar, adjusted EBITDA $154.6M (+114%), gross margin 17.4% from 21.5%, backlog $5.67B (+105%), FY26 guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B. The stock fell 7.9% that session to $63.24, then closed at $66.375.
    Legence doubled revenue to $1.26 billion, doubled backlog to $5.67 billion and raised full-year guidance - and the stock fell 7.9% that morning. The same filing impaired $41.1 million inside Engineering and Consulting, citing lower demand for sustainability services.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, REAL BUSINESS, THEME PRICE) — base-case value ~$38 vs ~$66.375 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value about $38 vs the $66.375 close on Aug 14 - roughly 43% below. Bear $21, base $38, bull $54, weighted 25/50/25 on an 11.0% base-case discount rate. A separate frame agrees: 10x 2028E adjusted EBITDA of $715M, net of debt and the tax agreement, is $57. The Street disagrees - 8 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell across 9 firms, median target $99.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1,262.1M, UP 110.7%, against a $1,073.9M estimate - a 17.5% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $154.6M, up 114.1%, a 12.2% margin vs 12.1%. GAAP loss per share $0.37 against a $0.37 profit bar. Gross profit $220.2M at 17.4%, from 21.5%. Strip the impairments and operating income was $34.5M, a 2.7% margin.
    - THE MIX - THE WHOLE EPISODE: Engineering and Consulting revenue grew just 5.5% to $206.9M and its gross profit FELL 12.4% to $56.1M. Installation and Maintenance grew 162.0% to $1,055.2M. Engineering is now 16.4% of revenue, from 32.7%. Existing-building work fell from 68.5% of revenue to 37.8%. Data centers went from 35.9% to 62.5%, or $789.5M.
    - THE IMPAIRMENT: $21.6M of goodwill plus $19.5M of long-lived assets, $41.1M in total, all in ONE reporting unit inside Engineering and Consulting. The 10-Q gives the cause twice: a decline in projected cash flows driven by lower customer demand for sustainability services. FY2025 carried another $25.0M, so $46.6M has come off in twelve months.
    - BACKLOG AND GUIDANCE: backlog and awarded contracts $5.67B, up 104.6%; book-to-bill 1.2x vs 1.3x. But contracted remaining performance obligations are $4.02B, so $1.65B (29%) is awarded, not contracted. Installation is 80.2% of backlog, from 68.0%. FY26 guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B and $565M-$585M. Q3 revenue midpoint $1.25B is BELOW Q2.
    - BALANCE SHEET AND VALUATION: cash $292.0M, total debt $1,026.4M, net leverage 1.6x - genuinely low. First-half free cash flow $152.6M; receivables plus unbilled improved from 104 to 94 days. Share count is 108.1M fully exchanged (76.9M Class A plus 31.2M Class B), so market cap is $7.17B, not the $8.03B screens show. TRA owed $342.7M. EV/EBITDA 13.8x.
    What to watch: UP: Engineering and Consulting revenue back above 15% growth with adjusted gross margin over 32%, or the shares near $46 (20x owner earnings). DOWN: a second impairment in that segment, or book-to-bill under 1.0x.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • CELC Stock Q2 2026: R&D Fell, Selling Costs Quintupled - Celcuity Just Changed Shape
    Celcuity (CELC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:15pm ET Aug 13, AFTER the close): no revenue line at all, R&D $31.1M (DOWN from $36.4M), SG&A $35.0M (up 361%), net loss $78.9M, GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate, adjusted loss $1.07. The stock closed +6.2% at $92.00 the next session.
    Celcuity spent $1.13 on selling and administration for every $1.00 of research this quarter - a year ago it was $0.21, and research actually shrank. It is the first quarter in company history that the commercial line is the biggest one.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, REAL DRUG, FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$81 vs ~$92.00 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value about $81 vs the $92.00 close on Aug 14 - roughly 12% below. Bear $38, base $79, bull $135, weighted 30/45/25. Cash plus risk-adjusted pipeline sum-of-the-parts, NOT a DCF: there is no revenue and no earnings. Probability of success: 85% approved label, 85% mutant sNDA, 35% first line, 12% prostate. The Street disagrees flatly - 12 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, consensus target $153.22.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): NO revenue line at all - Celcuity has never recorded product sales. Operating expense $66.1M vs $44.0M. R&D $31.1M, DOWN from $36.4M. SG&A $35.0M vs $7.6M, up 361%. Net loss $78.9M vs $45.3M. GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate; non-GAAP adjusted loss $1.07 - nine cents BETTER than that same estimate.
    - THE CROSSOVER - THE WHOLE EPISODE: SG&A is now $1.13 per $1.00 of R&D, against $0.21 twelve months ago, and it is now 53% of the entire cost base. Of the $27.4M SG&A increase the company attributes $14.5M to people, $10.8M to launch preparation and $2.1M to admin - with $23.4M of the $27.4M explicitly commercial. R&D fell on $7.0M less trial cost and $5.0M less in milestones.
    - THE 28-CENT GAP, DECOMPOSED: $0.21 of it is the NON-CASH $11.5M loss on extinguishing a term loan Celcuity prepaid with $137.0M of convertible-note proceeds. Non-cash items totalled $20.2M: stock compensation $6.9M, amortised debt issue costs $1.5M, investment accretion $0.3M, extinguishment $11.5M. Strip it and the gap to consensus is seven cents.
    - CASH, RUNWAY AND THE SHARE COUNT: $754.0M of cash and investments at Jun 30; operations consumed $55.4M in the quarter. $50.0M goes to Pfizer within 60 days of the Jul 14 approval, leaving $704.0M - 12.7 quarters at this burn, 10.1 at a launch-ramped $70M. The 10-Q cover shows 48.93M shares, but 6.15M pre-funded warrants sit in basic EPS: real market cap $5.07B, not the $4.49B on the feed.
    - THE ASSET: REVTORPYK (gedatolisib), licensed from Pfizer in 2021, was FDA-approved Jul 14, 2026 for HR+/HER2- PIK3CA wild-type advanced breast cancer and given a preferred NCCN Category 1 listing. Shipping starts late Q3 2026. The VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort hit its endpoint (hazard ratio 0.50, median PFS 11.1 vs 5.6 months); an sNDA follows in Q3.
    What to watch: UP: two quarters of REVTORPYK shipments tracking the Street's $392.4M 2027 revenue line, or an early VIKTORIA-2 readout. DOWN: an equity raise struck below $92, or a Q4 with nothing on the revenue line.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min

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⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close:…