Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • BSP Stock Q2 2026: 126% Revenue Growth, And Only 3% Of It Was Organic
    Bending Spoons (BSP) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 6-K accepted 7:07am ET Aug 13, BEFORE the open): revenue $704.2M vs $682.8M, adjusted EPS $0.46 vs $0.24, GAAP diluted EPS $0.28, adjusted operating margin 54%, organic revenue growth just 3%, net debt $4.09B. The stock fell 16.5% that session, to $40.92, then to $39.31.
    Bending Spoons beat on revenue, nearly doubled the adjusted EPS bar and posted a 54% adjusted operating margin - and the stock fell 16.5% the same morning. Strip out the businesses it bought and organic growth was 3%, after 13% in 2025. First-half adjusted operating income of $689M produced $250M of free cash flow: 36 cents on the dollar.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, GREAT OPERATOR, DEMANDING PRICE) — base-case value ~$20 vs ~$39.31 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value about $20 vs the $39.31 close on Aug 14 - roughly 48% below. Bear $13, base $19, bull $35, weighted 30/50/20, on an 11.6% cost of equity (1.48 beta). Every branch sits under the price. The Street disagrees: 6 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell across the 9 firms we can name, mean target $47.55. A price call, not a quality call.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $704.2M, UP 126%, vs a $682.8M estimate - a 3.1% beat. Adjusted EPS $0.46 vs a $0.24 bar; GAAP diluted EPS $0.28 vs $0.11. Adjusted operating income $381.1M, a 54% margin vs 49%. Net income $177.0M, up 171% - helped by a $19.5M other-income credit and a $26.2M income tax BENEFIT.
    - THE ORGANIC SPLIT - THE WHOLE EPISODE: organic revenue growth was 3%, against 7% in 2024 and 13% in 2025. So 123 of the 126 points of growth were BOUGHT: AOL, Eventbrite, Harvest, MileIQ, Tractive, Vimeo. Tractive and WeTransfer led organically; Remini and Splice shrank. The prospectus says they underwrite on returns, not organic growth.
    - CASH CONVERSION: first-half adjusted operating income of $689M produced $254.2M of operating cash flow and $250.3M of free cash flow - 36 cents on the dollar, and 35 cents in the same half of 2025, so it repeats. The bridge: $177M of reorganisation and deal cost, $161M of interest paid, a receivables build. Acquisitions took $2.29B, new debt $2.57B.
    - LEVERAGE - READ FOOTNOTE 3: net debt $4.09B ($4.88B of borrowings less $793M cash). The reported 2.4x ratio is struck against an adjusted EBITDA that is pro forma for a full year of ownership and credits achieved savings plus certain EXPECTED savings. On trailing REPORTED adjusted operating income of $1,055M it is 3.9x. Cost of debt: 10.7%.
    - GUIDANCE AND VALUATION: Q3 revenue guided to $733M-$745M; FY2026 to $2.78B-$2.82B, a midpoint 2.8% BELOW the $2.88B consensus - that is what moved the stock. Our FY2026 owner earnings: $1.49B guided adjusted operating income, less $297M of recurring reorganisation and deal cost, less $430M interest, taxed 25% = $560M, or $0.83 a share. 47x.
    What to watch: UP: a full year of cash conversion held above 50%, or an acquisition disclosed under 6x post-transformation cash operating income. DOWN: organic revenue growth staying near 3% while the purchase multiple rises toward the Airtable end of the range.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • AMTM Stock Q3 FY2026: A Record $48B Backlog, And Revenue Still Fell
    Amentum (AMTM) Q3 FY2026 — Q3 FY2026 (ended July 3; 8-K accepted 4:42pm ET Aug 10, AFTER the close): adjusted EPS $0.67 vs $0.611, revenue $3,490M vs $3,572M, EBITDA margin +60bp to 8.3%, free cash flow +35%, net leverage 3.0x, backlog a record $48.2B - and full-year REVENUE guidance was cut. The stock fell 8.2% on 3.5x volume, to $21.47.
    Amentum beat on adjusted EPS, widened margin, grew free cash flow 35%, cut net leverage to 3.0x and posted a record $48.2B backlog - and the stock fell 8.2%. One line went the wrong way: revenue fell 2% and the full-year revenue guide was cut for the first time all year, to a ceiling that is exactly the old floor.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, THE BACKLOG IS REAL, THE CASH IS THE TEST) — base-case value ~$27 vs ~$21.47 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value ~$27 vs the $21.47 close on Aug 14 - about 24% upside. Bull $37, bear $16, weighted 32/45/23, discounted at 10.30% (9.55% cost of equity on a 1.05 beta plus a stated 0.75pt premium for single-customer concentration and a shrinking top line). Our $27 is 4% BELOW the Street's $27.80 mean. We disagree on the rating, not the value: 5 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell.
    - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jul 3, 2026): revenue $3,490M, DOWN 2%, vs a $3,572M estimate - a 2.3% miss. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.67 vs a $0.611 bar, a 9.7% beat and up 20% from $0.56. GAAP diluted EPS $0.27 vs $0.04. Adjusted EBITDA $290M vs $274M - an 8.3% margin vs 7.7%, up 60bp. Free cash flow $135M vs $100M on $11M of capex.
    - GUIDANCE - ONE LINE CUT, TWO RAISED: full-year revenue went from $13.95B-$14.30B to $13.80B-$13.95B, so the NEW CEILING IS EXACTLY THE OLD FLOOR - a $250M midpoint cut, and the first reduction of the year after two reaffirmations. Adjusted EPS was RAISED to $2.40-$2.50 from $2.25-$2.45, EBITDA to $1,115M-$1,140M, free cash flow unchanged at $525M-$575M.
    - WHY BACKLOG RISES WHILE REVENUE FALLS: backlog hit a record $48.2B, up 8% from $44.6B, on $17.7B of net bookings and a 1.3x LTM book-to-bill; funded backlog $6.2B. About three points of the revenue decline is contracts moving from consolidated to UNCONSOLIDATED joint ventures - sales leave the top line, profit returns as equity earnings, up $18M to $28M - plus divestitures.
    - THE CASH-QUALITY FLAG: nine-month free cash flow is $213M vs $255M a year ago, yet the full-year guide is unchanged - so $312M-$362M, about 61% of the year, must land in Q4 against $261M last year. And $120M of this year's operating cash flow is the change in receivables SOLD under the MUFG MARPA facility, vs $42M last year. Strip it and nine-month cash is $93M.
    - VALUATION AND PEERS: 244,506,413 shares (10-Q cover, Aug 7) at $21.47 is $5,250M of market value; $3,875M of debt less $459M cash is $3,416M net, so enterprise value is $8,666M - 7.7x the FY2026 EBITDA guide, 8.8x the EPS guide and a 10.5% free cash flow yield. On trailing GAAP EBITDA, the basis FMP uses for peers, AMTM is 8.6x vs KBR 8.7x, Leidos 10.5x, SAIC 10.8x.
    What to watch: UP: Q4 free cash flow inside $312M-$362M on Nov 23 that is NOT carried by a larger receivable sale. DOWN: the MARPA balance sold rising again - this year's cash borrowed from next year's.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • MIDD Stock Q2 2026: The 17% Miss That Never Happened
    Middleby (MIDD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended July 4; 8-K accepted 7:02am ET Aug 11, BEFORE the open): adjusted EPS $2.35 vs a $2.09 estimate, sales $875.5M vs $837M. The feeds printed $1.74 - the post-spin stub - as a 16.7% miss. The stock fell 7.9%, to $117.91 over four sessions.
    Middleby beat on revenue and adjusted EPS and RAISED full-year guidance - and the stock fell 7.9%. The number that reached the tape was $1.74, its own preliminary estimate for the post-spin stub, against a $2.09 consensus built for the whole pre-spin company.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE MISS WAS FAKE, THE SELLOFF WAS NOT) — base-case value ~$119 vs ~$117.91 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value about $119 against the $117.91 close on Aug 14; roughly fair after a 9.5% fall. Bull $154, bear $88, weighted 30/45/25. We are BELOW the Street by 23%: FMP consensus 15 buy, 4 hold, 1 sell, post-spin average target $154.50 across 6 targets in the past month. Nobody downgraded on the print - Barclays held Overweight Aug 13, Oppenheimer held Outperform Aug 12.
    - THE QUARTER (13 weeks ended Jul 4): net sales $875.5M, up 9.9% and up 6.4% organic, against an $837M estimate - a 4.6% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $193.2M vs $181.6M, a 22.1% margin vs 22.8%. Operating income $147.7M vs $147.8M, flat, after $14.5M of transaction costs. GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations $1.20 vs $1.91; ADJUSTED EPS $2.35 vs $2.20. Shares 45,222,349 off the 10-Q cover.
    - WHY THE FEEDS SHOWED A MISS: the release labels $1.74 a preliminary estimate of adjusted EPS EXCLUDING Food Processing, to be finalised in Q3 2026 - a company that did not exist during the quarter. The $2.09 consensus was built on continuing operations INCLUDING Food Processing - the same basis on which Middleby reported $2.35. That is a 12.4% BEAT, not a 16.7% miss. The stub itself grew from $1.40 to $1.74, up 24.3%.
    - THE PORTFOLIO SURGERY: on Feb 2 Middleby sold 51% of its Residential Kitchen Equipment Group to 26North Partners for $564.6M net cash plus a $135.0M note, keeping 49% of Composition Brands and booking a $94.9M pre-tax loss. On Jul 6 it spun off Food Processing as Midera Food Processing (Nasdaq: MFP), one share per MIDD share, record date Jun 26 - two days after the quarter closed, so Q2 still contains Food Processing.
    - WHAT ADJUSTED EARNINGS LEAVE OUT: the retained 49% of Composition Brands absorbed $28.9M of losses net of tax in its first quarter of equity accounting - $0.64 a share, the largest item in the GAAP-to-adjusted bridge - arriving on a ONE-QUARTER LAG under hypothetical-liquidation-at-book-value, because 26North holds preferences. Carrying value has fallen from $155.2M to $109.7M. The $135M note is $125M non-interest-bearing.
    - THE PURE PLAY AND THE VALUATION: FY2026 guidance is $2.48B-$2.53B of sales, +7% organic, $572M-$588M adjusted EBITDA and $6.73-$6.89 adjusted EPS vs $2.35B, $551.3M and $6.10 in FY2025. Q3 is guided to $1.67-$1.83 on just +4% organic vs the +8.3% just delivered. At $117.91 that is 17.3x the EPS guide midpoint and 11.8x EV/EBITDA on a $6,824M EV. Q2 leverage 2.4x, 2.7x post-spin; $565.9M of stock retired this year at $149.18.
    What to watch: UP: the Nov 11 print beating the +4% organic guide against the +8.3% just delivered. DOWN: organic growth settling at +4% while the retained 49% of Composition Brands keeps writing down.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • SFD Stock Q2 2026: A 2-Cent Beat, A $100M Guide Cut, And The Hogs Did It
    Smithfield Foods (SFD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28; 8-K accepted 8:01am ET Aug 11, so BEFORE the open): adjusted EPS $0.62 vs a $0.599 estimate and sales $3,700M vs $3,650M. The stock fell 2.3% that session and 6.9% over four, from $24.44 to $22.76.
    Smithfield beat by two cents and the stock still fell. Adjusted operating profit rose just $2M to $300M - and every dollar of that came from Hog Production, the commodity segment management cut 42.9% for the full year in the same release. Packaged Meats, 88% of adjusted operating profit, fell 10.5%.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A CHEAP STOCK WITH A LOW-QUALITY BEAT) — base-case value ~$25 vs ~$22.76 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value about $25 vs the $22.76 close on Aug 14, roughly 9.7% upside plus a 5.5% dividend. Bull $31, bear $20, weighted 35/45/20. We are BELOW the Street by 18%: 6 analysts, 5 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell, average target $30.58 (low $28, high $35) as of Aug 12. Post-print target trims, both keeping buy: Goldman Sachs $33 to $32 and Bank of America $32 to $29, both Aug 12. Barclays $32 dated Jul 16; Morgan Stanley $31 dated Mar 25.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 28; 8-K accepted 8:01am ET Aug 11, so BEFORE the open): sales $3,700M, down 2.3%. Gross profit $478M vs $499M. GAAP operating profit $290M vs $260M; ADJUSTED operating profit $300M vs $298M, up just 0.7%. Net income attributable $238M, up 26.6% only because the year-ago quarter carried a $73M litigation charge. GAAP diluted EPS $0.60; adjusted $0.62. Shares 393,767,431 off the 10-Q cover; 395.8M diluted.
    - BASIS PROOF, BECAUSE THE FEEDS SWITCH IT: $0.62 is the ADJUSTED figure. FY2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $2.55 as filed and the four FY2025 quarters on that basis sum to $2.54. Data vendors carry $0.4775 for the June 2025 quarter, which is GAAP ($188M over 393,751,294 diluted); the company's adjusted figure was $0.55. Like-for-like the move is plus 12.7%, not the plus 30% the raw feed implies. Consensus was $0.599.
    - WHERE THE BEAT CAME FROM: Note 4 of the 10-Q shows $15M of gains on rabbi-trust assets - deferred-compensation investment marks - against $8M a year ago, and Smithfield does NOT exclude them from adjusted earnings. The quarter's effective tax rate was 21.4%, below the company's own 22.5%-24.5% full-year guide. Normalise both and adjusted EPS is about $0.58, UNDER the $0.599 bar. Derivative gains also swung $62M, from a $22M loss to a $40M gain.
    - THE SEGMENTS AND THE GUIDE CUT: Packaged Meats $265M vs $296M adjusted, margin 13.1% vs 14.2%; Fresh Pork $14M vs $30M; Hog Production $64M vs $22M. FY2026 adjusted operating profit guidance cut from $1,325M-$1,475M to $1,225M-$1,375M, a 7.1% midpoint cut, and sales from low-single-digit growth to flat. Hog Production alone was cut 42.9%, from $150M-$200M to $75M-$125M - and the first half already banked $68M, implying just $32M in the second.
    - BALANCE SHEET, DIVIDEND AND OWNERSHIP: net debt $654M, 0.4x trailing adjusted EBITDA of $1,720M; liquidity $3.65B. Dividend $1.25 annualised, up from $1.00, a 5.5% yield. Valuation: 9.2x consensus FY2026 adjusted EPS of $2.48 and 5.9x EV to EBITDA on an EV of $9,616M. WH Group holds 342,036,069 shares, or 87%, leaving a 13% float. The FY2026 guide midpoint of $1,300M is BELOW FY2025's actual $1,336M.
    What to watch: UP: the late-October Q3 print delivering second-half Packaged Meats profit near the $572M the guide implies, against $540M in the first half; or the $21.08 52-week low, where the yield reaches 5.9%. DOWN: a third straight year-over-year decline in Packaged Meats profit.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • ACM Stock Q3 FY2026: A $337M Charge, Three EPS Numbers, And A 17% Two-Day Drop
    AECOM (ACM) Q3 FY2026 — Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:35pm ET Aug 10, so AFTER the close): adjusted EPS negative $0.50 vs a $1.46 estimate and net service revenue $1,609M vs $2,013.5M, both hit by a $337M charge the company did NOT add back. The stock fell 8.5% to $67.05, then 9.0% to $61.04 - down 16.7% in two sessions, and a 52-week low of $60.35 on Aug 13. It closed $63.11 on Aug 14.
    AECOM's headline looked like a double miss - adjusted EPS of negative $0.50 against a $1.46 bar and net service revenue of $1,609M against $2,013.5M - and this time the headline was right. A $337M charge on one 2019 Construction Management contract flowed straight through adjusted earnings because management chose not to exclude it. The stock fell 8.5% then 9.0% to a 52-week low - the fourth straight double-digit earnings break in a year that has taken ACM down 53%.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL MISS, AND A REAL BACKLOG) — base-case value ~$67 vs ~$63.11 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $67 vs the $63.11 close on Aug 14, about 5.6% upside. Bull $84, bear $44, weighted 30/50/20. We are BELOW the Street: 16 buy, 8 hold, 1 sell, average target $79.43 over the last month, $83.11 over the quarter, $115.03 over the year. Every named rating predates this print - the most recent is RBC at Outperform on Jul 22. Post-print cuts: Baird to $73, KeyCorp to $79, Bank of America to $81, RBC to $90.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30; 8-K accepted 4:35pm ET Aug 10, so AFTER the close): GAAP revenue $3,586.1M, down 14.2%. Cost of revenue $3,620.1M, so gross profit was NEGATIVE $34.0M. Operating loss $76.0M against $294.1M a year ago. Net loss attributable to AECOM $86.7M; diluted EPS negative $0.67. BASIS PROOF: continuing-ops loss of $83.824M over 128.564M diluted shares is negative $0.65, the filed figure. Shares 128,696,425 off the 10-Q cover.
    - THE CHARGE: $337M pre-tax on ONE Construction Management project awarded in 2019, on terms AECOM says would not clear its current risk policies - lower subcontractor productivity, delayed completion, higher cost to complete. Substantial completion is not expected until Q2 FY2027, and claims will take years and litigation, so no recovery is booked. Crucially AECOM did NOT add the charge back to adjusted EPS, so the miss is real on the Street's basis.
    - THREE EPS NUMBERS FOR ONE YEAR: FY2026 GAAP guidance $2.37-$2.87; adjusted $3.95-$4.15; adjusted EXCLUDING the charge $5.90-$6.10. At $63.11 that is 24.1x, 15.6x or 10.5x. The adjusted-to-GAAP bridge is $150-200M of restructuring (ZERO in 9M FY2025 vs $53.6M in 9M FY2026), $58M of amortisation and $8M of financing fees. EV is $9,854M - $8,122M market cap plus $2,745.2M debt less $1,012.9M cash - or 10.4x the $935-965M EBITDA guide, 7.6x ex-charge.
    - THE CASH AND THE BACKLOG: Q3 operating cash flow $95M, down 66%; free cash flow $55M, down 79%. FY2026 free cash flow guidance is now about $300M against $684.9M actual in FY2025 and $707.9M in FY2024. Cash fell from $1,585.7M to $1,012.9M in nine months, debt flat at $2,745.2M, net leverage still 1.5x. Against that: backlog $27.8B, up 13%, a record on $4.2B of wins and a 1.6 book-to-burn, and ex-charge EPS of $1.49 BEAT the $1.46 bar.
    What to watch: UP: fiscal Q4 in November delivering free cash flow at or above the $300M guide with no further cost-to-complete revision, and Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.55-$1.75 as the full-year guide requires. DOWN: any further revision before substantial completion in Q2 FY2027, more net service revenue guidance cuts, or cash conversion staying near the 40% this year implies against a 100%-plus target. Below $55 the bear case is largely priced.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • MSGS Stock Q4 FY2026: Knicks Title, 83% EPS Beat, $9.8B For $7.8M Profit
    Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, reported before the open Aug 13): revenue $278.745M, up 37%; diluted EPS $1.16 against a $0.635 estimate, an 83% beat; the Knicks won the NBA championship. The stock closed DOWN 0.3% at $412.98 that session after touching a record $438.93 intraday, then fell 1.4% to $407.17 on Aug 14. The move had come the day before: +5.2% on the $12.5B Lakers deal.
    The Knicks won the 2025-26 NBA championship and MSG Sports delivered a genuine blowout - Q4 revenue up 37% to $278.7M and diluted EPS of $1.16 against a $0.635 bar. The stock closed lower anyway. It had already re-rated the day before, on a $12.5B Lakers transaction three thousand miles away. Across the full fiscal year this company earned $7.8M, so the income statement cannot price it; the private-market value of two franchises can, and that discount has gone from 52% to 20% in ten months.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, RARE ASSETS, ALREADY RE-RATED) — base-case value ~$457 vs ~$407.17 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $457 vs the $407.17 close on Aug 14, about 12% upside. Bull $534, bear $367. We are BELOW the Street: 20 buy, 9 hold, 0 sell, average target $511. All three post-print targets landed Aug 14, the morning after results - Guggenheim raised to $584 from $522, Susquehanna to $477 from $430, Seaport to $473 from $435. Morgan Stanley had already upgraded to Overweight at $450 on Jul 15.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, reported BMO Aug 13): revenue $278.745M, up 37% or $74.8M, about $51M past a $227.7M estimate. Operating income $32.2M against a $22.6M loss; adjusted operating income $39.6M vs a $16.8M loss. Diluted EPS $1.16 and basic $1.17 against a $0.635 bar - an 83% beat. Playoff revenue alone added $66.9M as the Knicks won the 2025-26 NBA championship. League distributions rose $7.2M.
    - THE FULL YEAR: revenue $1,153.8M, up 11%. Operating income $28.9M, up 95%; adjusted operating income $58.7M, up 54%. Net income just $7.8M and diluted EPS $0.32 - so 1,272x earnings and 169x adjusted operating income at $407.17. Operating cash flow $62.7M vs $91.6M. Event-related $536.5M, media rights $295.7M, sponsorship and suites $255.3M, league distributions $66.2M. No dividend was paid.
    - THE ACTUAL THESIS - THE HOLDING-COMPANY DISCOUNT: Forbes marks the Knicks at $9.75B (Oct 23, 2025) and the Rangers at $4.00B (Dec 11, 2025); Sportico had the pair at $13.5B (Oct 22, 2025). Market cap $9,805M on 24,079,941 shares, net debt $94M, arena leases $902M - enterprise value $10.8B, a 20% discount. On Oct 22, 2025 the same method gave 52%. Two-thirds of it has already closed.
    What to watch: UP: the Rangers separation completing by end-October 2026 and the two pure-plays trading tighter than the holdco; the NBA board approving the $12.5B Lakers transfer in September, which would mark the Knicks up alongside it; a fresh Forbes or Sportico mark reflecting the championship. DOWN: the separation slipping past October; the Lakers transfer being blocked, which removes the comp underpinning half the upside; franchise values flattening and the discount widening back toward 35%, which alone puts the shares near $367.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • JBS Stock Q2 2026: Record $23.9B Sales And A $102M Net Loss
    JBS NV (JBS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, reported after the close Aug 10): net sales $23,900M, up 13.8% and a record, roughly $855M past consensus; adjusted EPS $0.20 against a $0.31 bar; IFRS EPS -$0.10 on a $102.1M net loss. The stock fell 2.9% the next session to $13.02 on 2.4x average volume, then rose three straight days to $13.65.
    JBS booked the biggest quarter in its history - $23.9B of net sales, up 13.8% - and still reported a $102M net loss, with adjusted EPS of $0.20 against a $0.31 estimate. It is not a basis mismatch and not a currency artifact: the release is in US dollars and both EPS figures reconcile to the same 1,070.93M share count. Operating income was still positive $597.1M; finance costs and associates below that line did the damage.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, CHEAP ASSETS, BORROWED HEAVILY) — base-case value ~$17.31 vs ~$13.65 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value $17.31 vs the $13.65 close on Aug 14, about 27% upside. Bull $23.54, bear $9.80. We are BELOW the Street: 3 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, average target $18.50. Every rating predates the Aug 10 print - JP Morgan upgraded to Overweight Jul 28; Barclays held Overweight and cut to $20 on Jul 16; UBS cut to $17 on May 19. Four sessions on, no firm has revised.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, reported AMC Aug 10): net sales $23,900M, up 13.8%, a record, about $855M past consensus. IFRS adjusted EBITDA $1,429M, down 18.5%, margin 6.0% vs 8.4%. Adjusted operating income $790M, down 33.5%. Net loss attributable $102.1M vs $528.1M profit. IFRS EPS -$0.10 vs $0.48. Adjusted EPS $0.20 vs $0.52 and a $0.31 estimate - a real 35% miss, adjusted against adjusted.
    - WHERE IT BROKE: operating income was still positive $597.1M. Net finance expense $695.6M vs $376.4M, and equity-accounted investees -$123.6M vs +$7.8M, give -$222.1M pre-tax exactly. Segments: Pilgrim's Pride $503M, -38.5%; Seara $380M, -2.9%; JBS Brazil $269M, UP 17.8% and a record; Australia $231M, -20.5%; USA Pork $117M, -54.0%; Beef North America -$78M, against -$233M a year ago.
    - BALANCE SHEET AND THE TWO OUTSIDE MARKS: leverage 3.10x from 2.27x, interest cover 5.00x from 7.74x, net debt $18,962M, LTM free cash flow $36.4M vs $927.5M - and a $1,039M dividend paid anyway. Against that: Indonesia's Danantara committed $2.5B for 25% of the Australia and New Zealand platform on Aug 7, implying $8-10B for one segment, and 82%-owned Pilgrim's Pride trades at 6.5x against the parent at 5.9x.
    What to watch: UP: Beef North America turning from -$78M EBITDA toward breakeven as Mexican live-cattle imports resume from Aug 24, or leverage falling back under 3.0x at the November print. DOWN: leverage through 3.5x with free cash flow still near zero, a further leg down in chicken pricing at Pilgrim's Pride, or the multiple de-rating toward 5.25x - which alone puts the shares near $9.80.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • Global-e (GLBE) Q2 2026: A 52-Week High At 10am, And Red By The Close
    Global-e Online (GLBE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026, reported BMO Aug 12): GMV $2,089M +43.7%; revenue $299.0M +39.1% vs $288.0M consensus; adjusted EBITDA $62.4M +62.3%; GAAP diluted EPS $0.27 against a $0.22 bar. Every guidance metric raised. The stock opened at $41.06, printed a new 52-week high of $43.99 inside the first hour, then closed at $40.55 - down 0.76% on the day.
    Global-e grew GMV 43.7%, beat on revenue and earnings, and raised every line of guidance. The stock printed a new 52-week high of $43.99 inside the first hour of trading on Aug 12 - and closed at $40.55, red on the day. Growth decays down the page (GMV +43.7%, revenue +39.1%, gross profit +35.0%) and a $12.9M Shopify warrant charge just ran to zero.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A VERY GOOD BUSINESS, PRICED LIKE ONE) — base-case value ~$42.0 vs ~$42.36 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$42 vs the $42.36 close on Aug 14 - about 2% away, which is no edge. Bull $59 (+39%), bear $26 (-39%). Street: 14 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell; consensus target $47.71 (median $48, range $39-$60), +12.6% above the close. Dated ratings, all pre-print: Piper Sandler Overweight Jul 29, Truist Buy Jul 24, Morgan Stanley Overweight May 14, UBS Buy Mar 31.
    - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, reported BMO Aug 12): GMV $2,089M, +43.7%. Revenue $299.0M, +39.1%, vs $288.0M consensus - service fees $139.4M, fulfilment $159.6M. Gross profit $131.9M, +35.0%; non-GAAP gross margin 45.3% vs 46.5%. Adjusted EBITDA $62.4M, +62.3%, margin 20.9% vs 17.9%. GAAP diluted EPS $0.27 vs $0.06 and a $0.22 bar; non-GAAP $0.37. FCF $73.2M.
    - THE CHARGE THAT ENDED: last year's quarter carried $12.9M of Shopify warrant (commercial agreement asset) amortisation inside sales and marketing. This quarter carried $0 - the 20-F says it was fully amortized in January 2026. It cost $148.6M in 2024 and $66.0M in 2025. Operating profit rose $34.2M and $12.9M of that is this item vanishing: like for like +91%, not +325%.
    - THE MIX AND THE RAISE: take rate (revenue/GMV) 14.32% vs 14.78%; fulfilment revenue grew 42.4% against service fees at 35.6%. Total opex was FLAT (+0.04%, $87.194M vs $87.158M) - ex-warrant it rose 17.5% on revenue up 39.1%. FY2026 guide raised to $1,305-1,355M revenue, $278-300M EBITDA; ~$57M of the $80M revenue raise is acquired Passport at a ~6% margin.
    What to watch: UP: the take rate (revenue/GMV) stabilising near 14.3% in Q3, or service fees holding above 47% of revenue while GMV keeps compounding in the 40s. DOWN: take rate below 14.2% with fulfilment taking further mix share, operating expense growing with volume now the warrant tailwind is spent, or a Q3 revenue print below the $308.5M guide floor.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    17 min
  • Dillard’s (DDS) Q2 FY2026: A $1.59 Beat, And One Cent Of It Was The Business
    Dillard's (DDS) Q2 FY2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended August 1, 2026, reported BMO Aug 13): net sales $1,507.6M, -0.4%; total retail sales +1%, comps +1%. EPS $6.25 vs $4.66 and a $4.29 bar. But $37.2M of IEEPA tariff refunds ($1.82/sh) sit inside it and the company says no more are coming. Core EPS was $4.43 vs $4.42. Stock -11.80% over two sessions, from $636.02 to $560.95.
    Dillard's earned $6.25 against a $4.29 bar - a 46% beat - and the stock fell 11.8% over two sessions. EPS rose $1.59 on the year. $1.58 of that was one-off items: $37.2M of IEEPA tariff refunds worth $1.82 a share, less $0.24 of property gains last year. One cent came from operations.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE BEAT WAS A TARIFF REFUND AND THE BUYBACK IS OFF) — base-case value ~$461.0 vs ~$560.95 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value ~$461 vs the $560.95 close on Aug 14, about 18% below. Bull $547, bear $354 - even the bull does not clear the price. Street: 2 buy, 6 hold, 5 sell; consensus target $557.50 ($465-$650), already 0.6% BELOW the close. The only dated actions are UBS Sell (May 6, 2026), JP Morgan Underweight and Telsey Market Perform (Feb 25, 2026) - nobody has acted since the print.
    - THE QUARTER: net sales $1,507.6M, -0.4%; total retail sales (ex-CDI) $1,455M, +1%; comps +1%. Retail gross margin 40.9% vs 38.1%. Operating expenses $443.6M, 29.4% of sales vs 28.7%. Pre-tax income $127.1M vs $94.6M; tax rate 23.4% vs 23.0%. Net income $97.7M, +34.2%. EPS $6.25 vs $4.66, against a $4.29 bar. Ending inventory $1,283.2M, +5%. 272 stores, 30 states, 46.1M sq ft.
    - THE BRIDGE - WHERE THE $1.59 CAME FROM: $37.2M of IEEPA tariff refunds, $28.4M after tax, $1.82/sh - 260 of the 280bp of retail gross margin expansion. The release says no additional significant IEEPA refunds are expected. Last year carried $4.8M of property gains, $0.24/sh. Core EPS $4.43 vs $4.42: +$0.01. Pre-tax ex-items $89.8M vs $85.0M. EPS basis proven: FY2025 quarters 10.39+4.66+8.31+13.06 = $36.42, the reported full year.
    - THE BUYBACK AND THE BALANCE SHEET: zero shares repurchased in H1 FY2026 vs $107.8M a year ago; the last buy was 0.3M shares at $355.65 in Q1 FY2025; $165.2M authorisation unused. Diluted shares 15.6M in both quarters - the buyback added 0.0 points. FY2022-FY2025 net income fell 36.0% ($892M to $570M) while EPS fell 28.3% ($50.81 to $36.42) on an 11.1% lower share count. Cash and short-term investments $1,260.8M vs $425.7M debt = $835.1M net cash ($53.47/sh).
    What to watch: UP: repurchases restarting against the unused $165.2M authorisation, or a Q3 retail gross margin near last year's 45.3% showing the 5% inventory build cleared at full price. DOWN: a Q3 comp below +1% with gross margin down, or another quarter of zero buyback while inventory keeps outgrowing sales.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • Aramark (ARMK) Q3 FY2026: They Raised The Guide That Doesn’t Pay You
    Aramark (ARMK) Q3 FY2026 — Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended July 3, 2026): revenue $5,057.9M, +9.3%, organic +8.6%, above the $4,936M bar. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.52 vs a $0.4847 bar, +30.0%. GAAP diluted EPS $0.36, +34.4%. Aramark RAISED FY2026 organic revenue guidance to +9-10% and only REAFFIRMED adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS and leverage. Stock +9.69% across three sessions, to a twelve-month closing high of $61.11.
    Aramark beat on revenue and on adjusted EPS and raised its full-year organic revenue outlook to +9-10%. It did not raise the adjusted operating income guide, the adjusted EPS guide or the leverage target. The release says Q4 will be consistent with Wall Street. The Street is at $0.75, and $1.52 of filed nine-month adjusted EPS plus $0.75 is $2.27 - the floor of the reaffirmed +20-25% range.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, REVENUE GUIDE RAISED, EPS GUIDE HELD AT THE FLOOR) — base-case value ~$53.0 vs ~$61.11 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value ~$53 against the $61.11 close on Aug 13, about 13% below. Street: 21 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell; 9 targets in the last 30 days average $68.89, published consensus $67.70 in a $55-$74 range. Bull $79, bear $34. We differ on method: we price cash to an owner, the Street prices EBITDA.
    - THE QUARTER: revenue $5,057.9M, +9.3% (organic +8.6%) vs a $4,936M bar. FSS United States $3,496.4M, +7.7%; FSS International $1,561.5M, +13.2%. Operating income $215.6M, +18.1%. Adjusted operating income $260.8M, +13.3%, margin 5.2%. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.52 vs $0.4847, +30.0%. GAAP diluted EPS $0.36, +34.4%. Client retention ~98%, a record; new client wins over $1.6B YTD, +51%.
    - THE EPS BASIS AND THE GUIDANCE ARITHMETIC: the three FY2026 adjusted quarters $0.51 + $0.49 + $0.52 equal the reported nine-month adjusted EPS of $1.52, so the beat is like-for-like; the GAAP gap is $37.9M of amortisation, $5.6M of severance and $1.7M of other charges, less $2.8M of tax. Q4 is guided to the Street's $0.75, and $1.52 + $0.75 = $2.27 = +20.1% on FY2025's $1.89 - the floor of the +20-25% range (the AOI guide of +12-17% was also only reaffirmed). The top needs $0.84.
    - THE CALENDAR SHIFT AND THE CASH: FY2025 held a 53rd week; the shift removed $80.8M of revenue and $20.1M of operating income, almost all in Education. Ex-shift, revenue grew 11.1% and adjusted EPS 42.9% in constant currency ($0.57). Q3 free cash flow +$8.7M vs -$33.6M; nine-month FCF -$588.1M, while Q4 FY2025 alone delivered +$1,051.7M. FY2025 FCF was $454.5M. Net debt $5,630.4M, leverage 3.5x from 4.0x; $100M of term loans repaid post-quarter.
    What to watch: UP: a fourth quarter of $0.80 or better against the $0.75 the company endorsed, or a first disclosed revenue and margin figure for Aramark Nexus. DOWN: Q4 adjusted EPS at or under $0.75 alongside Q4 operating cash flow below last year's $1,175.6M.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    13 min

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