Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • Simon Property (SPG) Q2 2026: A 15-Cent EPS Miss, And A 1-Cent Move
    Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): GAAP diluted EPS $1.49 vs a $1.64 consensus. Real Estate FFO $3.29 vs a $3.18 bar, up 7.9%. Revenue $1.7906B, up 19.5%. Domestic NOI up 8.5%, occupancy 96.0%. FY26 FFO guidance raised to $13.20-$13.30; Q3 dividend $2.25, up 4.7%. An AMC print on Aug 10, so Aug 11 was the reaction: $219.53 close, down 0.46%. It closed $220.56 on Aug 12 - one cent above the pre-print close.
    Simon closed at $220.55 the afternoon it reported and $220.56 two sessions later - one cent of net movement - even though every screener showed a 15-cent earnings miss. Real Estate FFO of $3.29 beat a $3.18 bar, revenue beat, guidance rose and the dividend rose. Depreciation alone was $1.61 a share, more than the entire $1.49 of reported EPS. This episode teaches why EPS is the wrong input for a REIT, then asks whether $838 of retailer sales per square foot at 96% occupancy is durable or flattered by the Taubman consolidation.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, AN EXCELLENT QUARTER - AND THE MULTIPLE ALREADY OWNS IT) — base-case value ~$205.0 vs ~$220.56 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$205 vs the $220.56 Aug 12 close, ~7% below. Not an owner-earnings DCF - for a REIT the inputs are a multiple, a yield and a cap rate. A: 15.0x our 2027 Real Estate FFO of $13.85 = $207.75. B: a 4.40% fair forward yield on a $9.20 dividend = $209.09. C: a 6.25% cap rate on $6,576M of 2026 portfolio NOI, less net debt = $195.71. Weighted 40/35/25. Bear $172, bull $234. Street: 15 buy, 20 hold, 2 sell, average ~$216 - already under the market price.
    - THE TWO SCOREBOARDS: net income to common $483.1M, or $1.49 on 324.5M shares. Real Estate FFO $1.249B, or $3.29 on 380.4M shares AND operating-partnership units - a 14.7% economic interest absent from the EPS denominator. Simon's bridge, page 9 of Exhibit 99.1: $1.49 EPS, plus $1.61 of depreciation net of the noncontrolling share, plus $0.02 of disposals = $3.12 of FFO; plus $0.19 of non-cash marks = $3.29. Depreciation alone exceeds the whole EPS figure.
    - WHY THE EPS SERIES IS NOISE: Q4 2025 EPS was $9.35 and FY2025 $14.17, because on October 31, 2025 Simon bought the last 12% of TRG (Taubman), consolidated it and booked a $2.858 BILLION non-cash gain. Real Estate FFO over the same six quarters: $2.96, $3.05, $3.23, $3.49, $3.17, $3.29. Q2 depreciation was $459.9M vs $339.1M, up 35.6%, mechanically from that consolidation - $21.4B is now written off $51.1B of property at cost.
    - THE GUIDANCE RAISE, DECODED: FY26 Real Estate FFO guidance went to $13.20-$13.30 from $13.10-$13.25, up $0.08 at the midpoint - but the quarter beat by $0.11. A $13.25 midpoint less the $6.46 banked in H1 leaves $6.79 for H2, against $6.72 in the back half of 2025: about 1% growth, behind an H1 that grew 7.5%. Dividend $2.25, a 4.08% yield, 78% of the $2.89 of FAD per share generated. Retailer sales $838 a foot (+13.9%) - but the measured portfolio grew 9.5% and was not restated.
    What to watch: UP: domestic NOI still compounding near 8% at the November 2 print; the implied 1% second half proving to be conservatism; retailer sales per foot holding above $800 on a comparable base. DOWN: that ~1% second-half FFO growth turning out to be the real run-rate; occupancy slipping from 96.0%; further losses at Catalyst Brands, Rue Gilt Groupe and Jamestown; the 16.6x multiple giving back its 2026 expansion.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • BridgeBio (BBIO) Q2 2026: Attruby Up 211%, And The $934M Preferred
    BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (BBIO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $243.7M vs a $223.1M bar, up 120%. Attruby U.S. net product revenue $222.4M vs $71.5M, up 211% and up 23.2% sequentially. Royalty revenue $15.4M. Diluted loss per share $(0.78) vs $(0.60), an 18-cent miss. Net loss to common $152.2M. Cash $720.2M at June 30, ~$1,654M pro forma for the $933.9M preferred that closed July 1. The print was after the close on Aug 10; the Aug 11 reaction session opened $87.02, ran to $89.49 and closed $83.70. It closed $83.84 on Aug 12.
    BridgeBio's Attruby did $222.4 million in a single quarter against $71.5 million a year ago - growth of 211% - and total revenue of $243.7 million cleared a $223.1 million bar. And BridgeBio still lost $152.2 million, missing on EPS by 18 cents. Eight weeks after the quarter closed it sold $933.9 million of Series A Cumulative Convertible Participating Preferred to Sixth Street and to HealthCare Royalty, an affiliate of KKR - senior to the common, accruing 7.00% daily whether or not declared, with a 13% pre-tax IRR floor on redemption. This episode asks one question: at what Attruby run-rate does BridgeBio turn cash positive, and who is standing in front of the common when it does.
    THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, THE DRUG WORKS - BUT THE STACK GETS PAID BEFORE THE COMMON DOES) — base-case value ~$57.0 vs ~$83.84 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: REDUCE, 3/5. Fair value ~$57 vs the $83.84 Aug 12 close, 32% below. Free cash flow is negative, so this is a ten-year path-to-profitability model, not an owner-earnings DCF. Base $53.17 on $6.45B of 2035 revenue at a 30% FCF margin, 11.0% discount, 2.0% terminal. Bear $13.08. Bull $109.42. Weights 25/50/25. Street: 23 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, average ~$106.
    - THE REVENUE LINE: several data feeds published $222.4M as Q2 revenue. That is net product revenue only. The 8-K shows total revenues, net of $243.676M - product $222.440M, licence and services $5.804M, royalty $15.432M. The ~$223.1M bar was set on the total basis, so this was a ~9% beat. EPS $(0.78) vs $(0.60), an 18-cent miss.
    - WHAT THE LAUNCH COSTS: revenue rose $133.1M year on year; total operating cost rose $106.0M to $350.755M. SG&A $186.261M (+44%), R&D $149.448M (+34%), stock compensation $44.522M. Non-cash interest on deferred royalty obligations was $41.345M, over a quarter of the $152.2M net loss. Product gross margin 95.3%.
    - THE PREFERRED: 933,900 shares at $1,000 on July 1 - Sixth Street $800.0M, HealthCare Royalty $133.9M, plus $66.1M optional. 7.00% cumulative, accruing daily, cash or compounded. Converts at $137.79, 64% above the close. No redemption before year three, then the greater of 120% of face plus accrued, as-converted, or a 13% pre-tax IRR.
    - THE STACK: ahead of the common sit $2,505M of convertible notes, $879M of deferred royalty obligations and $934M of preferred, against $1,217M of total assets and a $2,515M stockholders' deficit. Once the stack is served Attruby needs ~$330M a quarter - a $1.32B run-rate, 48% above today.
    What to watch: UP: Attruby holding better than 15% sequential growth; BBP-418 approval at its November 27, 2026 PDUFA date and a clean launch; encaleret clearing May 8, 2027; the October 8 Commercial Day producing a checkable spending plan across three launches. DOWN: sequential Attruby growth below 10% as Amvuttra and tafamidis defend share; any slip at BBP-418 or oral infigratinib; SG&A growing faster than revenue into 2027; a second structured financing.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Trimble (TRMB) Q2 2026: A Beat, A Raise, And A $562M Write-Down
    Trimble Inc. (TRMB) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended July 3, 2026): revenue $972.0M vs a $952.1M bar, up 11% reported and 10% organic. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.86 vs $0.802, above the company's own $0.78-$0.82 guide. Non-GAAP gross margin 71.8%, a record. Adjusted EBITDA $278.0M at 28.6%. ARR $2.509B, up 14%. A $562.0M goodwill impairment on T&L took GAAP EPS to $(2.02). FY26 guidance raised. New $1.0B buyback. The stock hit $61.91 intraday and closed $56.35, down 2.81%.
    Trimble beat on revenue and earnings, raised full-year guidance, pulled its 30% EBITDA margin target forward a year and authorised a new $1.0 billion buyback - and the stock gapped up to $61.91 and closed down 2.81% at $56.35. The same 8-K booked a $562.0 million goodwill impairment against Transportation & Logistics, the segment now under a Goldman-advised strategic review. Footnote (E) says the write-down was triggered by 'a sustained decline in market capitalisation and stock price'. The accounting followed the tape down, on the morning the sale process was confirmed.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD BUSINESS AT A FAIR PRICE - THE WRITE-DOWN IS THE TELL, NOT THE BEAT) — base-case value ~$53.0 vs ~$56.35 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5 conviction. Probability-weighted fair value ~$53 against the $56.35 August 12 close, 5.9% below. Base case $55.52 on 7.5% owner-earnings growth, a 9.0% discount rate and 3.0% terminal growth; bear $38.16; bull $70.10. An independent sum-of-the-parts at 5.5x AECO, 3.0x Field Systems and 3.0x T&L, less capitalised corporate cost, lands at $53.31. Wall Street: Strong Buy, 13 analysts polled by S&P Global as of 22 July 2026, average target $81.27, low $61, high $94.
    - THE ADJUSTED EPS GAP: the FY26 guide of $3.60-$3.70 is non-GAAP and adds back roughly $170M a year of stock-based compensation - about $0.73 a share on 234M shares. Charge it as the real cost it is and owner earnings are ~$2.92, so the 15.4x that every bull cites is really 19.3x. Enterprise value is $14.43B: 3.68x the $3,925M FY26 revenue midpoint, 12.8x our $1,130M adjusted EBITDA estimate, and $5.75 per dollar of the $2,509M ARR.
    - THE RAISE, RECOMPUTED: FY26 revenue guidance moved from $3,835-3,915M to $3,900-3,950M, a $50M midpoint raise of 1.3%; adjusted EPS from $3.47-$3.64 to $3.60-$3.70. But GAAP EPS guidance went from $2.05-$2.21 to a LOSS of $0.07-$0.12. Solve the range for Q4 and it implies $1,047.6M, up 8.0%, so second-half revenue growth of about 7.6% against 11.4% in the first half. Segments: AECO $388.5M +10.9% at a 30.6% margin, Field Systems $442.5M +12.7% at 32.9%, T&L $141.0M +6.3% at 24.0%.
    - THE BUYBACK, READ PROPERLY: the new $1.0 billion authorisation replaces and cancels a prior one that still had $608.2M remaining, so genuinely incremental capacity is $391.8M - about 3% of the $13.2B market value, not 7.6%. Trimble did repurchase $329.0M in the first half and diluted shares fell from 239.6M to 233.0M, down 2.8%. First-half free cash flow was $501.8M on $13.2M of capex, though $250.4M of that came from receivables converting. Net debt $1,244.9M, about 1.1x EBITDA.
    What to watch: UP: terms out of the T&L review above 4x revenue, which on a ~$564M run-rate is $2.3B for 14.5% of the business; second-half growth beating the ~7.6% the raised guide implies; AECO holding its 30.6% margin; a price nearer $48, where it traded on 17 June. DOWN: the review ending with no transaction, leaving a $562M mark and no offset; H2 growth undershooting 7.6%; another impairment against the remaining $4.83B of goodwill.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Ferguson Enterprises (FERG): Beat, Raised, And The Bill Two Days Later
    Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $8,751M vs an $8,677M bar, up 4.6% (a 0.9% beat). Adjusted diluted EPS $3.39 vs $3.30 (a 2.7% BEAT); reported $3.43. Gross margin 31.0%, down 20bps. Adjusted operating profit $932M, up 2.9%; adjusted operating margin 10.7%, DOWN 10bps. Adjusted EBITDA $994M, up 3.2%. Full-year guidance RAISED on sales, margin floor and capex. The 8-K was accepted at 6:50am ET Monday August 10, so the reaction day is Monday: FERG closed $263.78, UP 2.76% from $256.69. It then fell 4.65% and 2.52% to close $245.18 on August 12 - a 7.0% round trip while the S&P 500 was flat.
    Ferguson beat and RAISED full-year guidance, and the stock rose 2.76% on Monday August 10. Then it fell 7.0% over the next two sessions - while the S&P 500 was flat, industrials rose and Grainger rose. The beat is real: adjusted EPS $3.39 against a $3.30 bar, net sales $8,751M up 4.6%. But sales rose $388M while adjusted operating profit rose only $26M, a 6.7% incremental margin against a 10.7% company average, and first-half free cash flow was cut in half to $482M. Two days after the print Ferguson filed the financing for its $1.6B FloWorks acquisition: $1.2B of new senior notes at 4.800% and 5.600%, a $900M delayed-draw term loan and a $700M bridge, taking pro forma total debt from $4,925M to $7,025M.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A GOOD BUSINESS BUYING ITS GROWTH AT 21.6x FORWARD - OUR BULL CASE IS THE TAPE) — base-case value ~$190.0 vs ~$245.18 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5 conviction. Fair value ~$190 vs the $245.18 August 12 close, 22% below. Bull $249, base $190, bear $116. Street: Buy, 12 buy / 4 hold / 0 sell, average target $291.67 (median $290, range $256-$325).
    - THE NUMBER UNDER THE BEAT: net sales rose $388M but adjusted operating profit rose only $26M - a 6.7% incremental margin against a 10.7% company average. Adjusted operating margin FELL 10bps to 10.7%; adjusted EBITDA grew 3.2% on 4.6% more sales.
    - CASH: first-half free cash flow fell 50.9% to $482M from $982M. Operating cash flow $716M vs $1,123M. Working capital and tax took $630M vs $57M a year ago. Capex up 66% to $234M. Uses of cash were $1,602M against $716M generated.
    - THE FLOWORKS MULTIPLE: the release says approximately 10x LTM adjusted EBITDA INCLUDING approximately $45M of expected synergies. Back those out and $1.6B over $115M is 13.9x. Funded with $1.2B of notes, a $900M term loan and a $700M bridge.
    - PRO FORMA LEVERAGE: the 424B2 capitalisation table takes total debt from $4,925M to $7,025M, up 43%. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA 1.3x today, near 1.7x pro forma on our arithmetic - still inside the company's stated 1-2x target range.
    What to watch: UP: incremental adjusted operating margin back above 10%; a second-half working-capital release that restores full-year cash conversion near 100%; FloWorks revenue synergies finally quantified; a share price nearer $200, where our base case has room. DOWN: buybacks shrinking below the $202M run rate; capex pinned at the top of the raised $375-425M range; net leverage drifting through 2.0x; another quarter where adjusted operating profit grows slower than sales.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • CAVA Group (CAVA): The 14% Rally And The Sentence In The Footnote
    CAVA Group (CAVA) Q2 2026 — Q2 FY2026 (the twelve weeks ended July 12, 2026): revenue $368.4M vs a $360.1M bar, up 31.3% (a 2.3% BEAT). GAAP diluted EPS $0.19 vs $0.18. Same restaurant sales +9.0% - 5.3 points TRAFFIC, 3.7 points price/mix. 17 net new restaurants to 476 (+19.6%). AUV $3.088M. Restaurant-level margin 25.7%, DOWN 60bp. Adjusted EBITDA $54.7M, +30.0%. The stock closed August 12 at $69.47, up 14.24% from $60.81. Full-year guidance was REAFFIRMED, not raised.
    CAVA grew revenue 31.3% and comped 9.0% - with 5.3 points of it coming from guest TRAFFIC, not menu price - and the stock closed up 14.24% at $69.47. But management REAFFIRMED full-year guidance instead of raising it, and the reason is in the 10-Q rather than the press release. Under 'Additional Factors Affecting Our Business' the filing states that a July multistate cyclosporiasis outbreak associated with iceberg lettuce has 'adversely impacted our revenue during the third quarter to date'. No CAVA ingredient was implicated; the damage is consumer perception. That single paragraph appears nowhere in the 8-K earnings exhibit the market bought on.
    THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, A GENUINELY GOOD RESTAURANT COMPANY AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY NEEDS A FOURFOLD UNIT BUILD) — base-case value ~$47.0 vs ~$69.47 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 4/5 conviction. Fair value ~$47 vs the $69.47 August 12 close, 32% below. Bull $74, base $47, bear $24. Street: Buy, 19 buy / 6 hold / 0 sell, five targets reset Aug 12 averaging $85.40.
    - The reaffirmed 4.5-6.5% full-year comp guide, set against a +9.4% first half (Q1 +9.7% over 16 weeks, Q2 +9.0% over 12), implies same restaurant sales of -1.2% to +3.1% across the remaining 24 weeks.
    - First-half pre-tax income rose 37.6% but net income rose only 5.7%: the comparable 2025 period carried a net tax BENEFIT of $21K, against a 23.2% effective rate this year. Trailing GAAP EPS $0.56 = 124x.
    What to watch: UP: a Q3 comp that holds above 5% despite the lettuce scare, which would prove the reaffirmed guide was pure conservatism; restaurant-level margin holding above the 24.3% top of the full-year range; a share price nearer $50, where our base case has room. DOWN: any cut to the full-year guide when Q3 lands in early November; a restaurant margin printing below the reaffirmed 23.7% floor; the 75-to-77 opening target slipping, since 38 are done and 37 to 39 must land in the final 24 weeks; a downgrade cycle off 19 buys, 6 holds and no sells.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Lumentum (LITE) Q4 FY2026 Earnings: The $7.8 Billion Receipt
    Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Q4 FY2026 — Revenue of $1,006.3M, up 109.3% - the first billion-dollar quarter in company history - with non-GAAP EPS of $3.23 against a $2.97 bar, and a GAAP net loss of $84.65 a share. LITE closed +13.63% at $932.47.
    Lumentum just printed the best quarter in its history and reported a net loss of $84.65 a share. The loss is one line - $7,756.6M of loss on debt extinguishment - and it is not an impairment. It is the receipt for settling convertible notes in stock after the shares rose ninefold. The dilution behind that receipt is real: the fully diluted share count the company used for Q4 EPS is 101.1M against 71.2M for fiscal 2025, up 42%. Most screens still show a market value near $72.5B, which implies fewer shares than actually exist.
    THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, A PRICE CALL, NOT A BUSINESS CALL) — base-case value ~$260.0 vs ~$932.47 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 4/5, fair value ~$260 vs the $932.47 close - about 72% below, and 76% below the Street's $1,080.60 average. Bear $100, base $257, bull $434.
    - EVEN OUR BULL CASE IS UNDERWATER: $434 sits 53% below the close. No branch of our model makes $932.47 the cheap side of this trade.
    - THE QUARTER: net revenue $1,006.3M, up 109.3% year on year and 24.5% sequentially. Components $649.4M (+102.7%), Systems $356.9M (+122.6%).
    - MARGINS: non-GAAP gross margin cleared 50% for the first time at 50.4% (from 37.8%). Non-GAAP operating margin 36.6% against 15.0%. Adjusted EBITDA $406.4M against $98.7M.
    - THE GAAP LOSS EXPLAINED: loss on debt extinguishment of $7,756.6M, footnoted as conversion value in excess of principal on the 2026, 2028 and 2029 notes. Non-cash - but it is the receipt for real dilution.
    - THE SHARE COUNT: non-GAAP diluted shares 101.1M in Q4 against 71.2M for fiscal 2025, up 42.0%. Common outstanding went 69.8M to 88.6M. Paid-in capital went $1,986.8M to $12,430.1M.
    - WHY THE SCREENS ARE WRONG: FMP carries a $72.55B market cap, implying 77.8M shares - fewer than the 88.6M common outstanding. On 101.1M diluted the figure is $94.27B and EV is $93.17B.
    - THE CASH RECORD: free cash flow across fiscal 2023, 2024 and 2025 combined was NEGATIVE $161.7M (+$51.3M, -$108.3M, -$104.7M), from the filed 10-K statements via SEC XBRL.
    - AND THIS QUARTER: cash and short-term investments FELL $433.9M sequentially to $2,738.4M, in the same three months that produced $326.3M of non-GAAP net income. The release does not itemise the draw.
    - THE GUIDE IS THE MOVE, NOT THE QUARTER: revenue beat consensus by only 1.9%. FQ1 FY2027 guidance of $1.225-1.275B is 8.1% above the bar and $4.05-4.35 of EPS is 18.0% above the $3.56 the Street carried.
    - BALANCE SHEET FLIP: total debt fell $2,573.2M to $1,637.4M, of which $1,596.9M is current. Net debt of $1,696.1M became net CASH of $1,101.0M in twelve months.
    - THE MULTIPLE: EV is 23.1x annualised Q4 revenue and 57.3x annualised Q4 adjusted EBITDA. At 10% the price asks for roughly $46B of revenue by fiscal 2035 - about 15x fiscal 2026.
    - FULL YEAR FY2026: revenue $3,014.0M (+83.2%), non-GAAP EPS $8.67 against $2.06, adjusted EBITDA $1,025.8M. GAAP net loss $6,935.1M, or $92.96 a share.
    What to watch: UP: free cash flow converting. The first clean read lands with the fiscal Q1 10-Q in November 2026. Sustained conversion at these margins would move our base case materially. DOWN: guided gross margin slipping under 46%, or receivables and inventory growing faster than revenue - the classic tell that a merchant-optics up-cycle is rolling over.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • Fervo Energy (FRVO) Q2 2026 Earnings: The Backlog Is Ahead Of The Rock
    Fervo Energy (FRVO) Q2 2026 — Revenue of $113 THOUSAND, a $55.9M net loss and GAAP EPS of -$0.38. Fervo raised its 2030 target to 1.1 GW and moved 400 MW into Advanced Development - and the stock fell 16.59% to $20.16. The 8-K landed 7:05am ET, before the open.
    Fervo raised its 2030 target by 100 MW to 1.1 gigawatts, moved 400 MW into Advanced Development and added 10.5 GW of new GeoClusters - and the stock still fell 16.6%. Here is what did NOT move: the contracted book. 658 megawatts of binding PPAs at 31 December 2025, 658 at 31 March 2026, and no offtake update in this morning's release. Every gigawatt of headline came from the supply side. And the prospectus discloses a deliverability gap on power already sold: Cape Station Phase II holds ~290 MW of interconnection rights against 384 MW contracted to SCE and Clean Power Alliance - a 94 MW shortfall.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A PRICE CALL, NOT A TECHNOLOGY CALL) — base-case value ~$10.0 vs ~$20.16 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $10.00 vs the $20.16 close - about 50% below, and 78.4% below the Street's $46.38 average. Bear $4, base $10, bull $18.
    - EVEN OUR BULL CASE IS UNDERWATER: $18.00 is 10.7% below the close. No branch of our model makes $20.16 the cheap side of the trade.
    - THE ANGLE: 658 MW of binding PPAs at 31 Dec 2025 and 658 MW at 31 Mar 2026 - unchanged for nine months, and no offtake update in the Q2 release.
    - THE GAP: Cape Station Phase II holds ~290 MW of interconnection rights against 384 MW sold to SCE and Clean Power Alliance - a 94 MW shortfall.
    - THE PRINT: revenue $113 THOUSAND vs $0. Operating loss $28.7M. Net loss $55.9M vs $11.4M. GAAP EPS -$0.38 on 157,003K weighted shares.
    - THE EPS TRAP: -$3.72 to -$0.38 is the DENOMINATOR - weighted shares went ~9.5M to 157.0M at the IPO. The net loss GREW 75.7% to $55.9M.
    - Interest income of $10.5M on the IPO cash is 93x the $113K revenue line. G&A hit $27.4M from $9.5M; $35.5M of other expense is not itemised.
    - THE BURN: capex $226.5M vs $108.0M a year ago, with $850-900M guided for H2 - about 43% of the IPO cash out the door before Christmas.
    - NOTHING IS IN SERVICE: D&A was $344 THOUSAND against $1,235.2M of construction-in-process. Depreciation starts when GeoBlock 1 energises.
    - VALUATION: 294,654K A+B shares at $20.16 = $5.94B equity; less $2.12B cash, plus $228.4M debt and $187.0M minorities = $4.24B EV on 0 MW.
    - PER KILOWATT: $8,476 per kW under build, $6,441 per contracted kW, $3,853 per kW of the 2030 target - vs Fervo's own $5,500/kW Phase II cost.
    - OUR MODEL USES FERVO'S OWN NUMBERS: the prospectus assumes $115/MWh, an 83% capacity factor and $160/kW-yr O&M, giving $650-700K EBITDA per MW.
    - OPERATIONALLY STRONG: Sawtooth 7 hit ~19,500 ft in a 460F resource in 21 days, a company record. Cost curve ~$7,000/kW to $5,500 to $3,000.
    What to watch: UP: a genuinely new binding PPA would break the thesis - the book has read 658 MW since December; interconnection rights beyond the 290 MW at Phase II would close the 94 MW gap; first power at GeoBlock 1 landing in Q4 2026 on schedule; and Phase II hitting the targeted $5,500/kW, on a curve running from ~$7,000/kW toward a $3,000 goal. DOWN: any slip in the Q4 first-power date; capital spending running past the $850-900M guided for H2 against $2.106B of cash; the Google framework lapsing without a binding PPA; and an equity raise struck at a depressed price, with the stock already 25.3% below its $27.00 IPO price.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • WhiteFiber (WYFI) Q2 2026 Earnings: The Growth Was A Breakup Fee
    WhiteFiber (WYFI) Q2 2026 — Revenue $28.8M, up 54.5%, and GAAP EPS of -$0.39 against a -$0.45 bar. But $12.3M of that revenue is a contract-termination fee from the departing anchor customer. The 10-Q was accepted 7:00am ET on Aug 12, BEFORE the open, so Wednesday Aug 12 IS the reaction: $24.22 to $28.58, up 18.00%.
    WhiteFiber reported revenue of $28.8M, up 54.5%, and the stock rose 18%. But $12.3 million of that revenue is a contract-termination fee paid by the anchor customer to exit its agreement. Strip it out and revenue was $16.5M, down 11.4% year on year and down 24.6% on the March quarter. The company says so itself in the MD&A. And as of the filing date, eight weeks after quarter end, the fee had still not been collected.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A VALUATION AND REVENUE-QUALITY CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$16.5 vs ~$28.58 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $16.50 vs the $28.58 close - 42% BELOW the price and 49% below the Street's $32.33 average. Bear $2.50, base $16.50, bull $29.15.
    - THE ANGLE: $12.3M of the $28.8M revenue line is a contract-termination fee from the anchor customer that walked. That is 42.7% of the quarter's revenue.
    - EX-FEE REVENUE: $16.5M, down 11.4% year on year and down 24.6% on Q1's $21.9M. Cloud services ex-fee were $11.5M vs $16.6M - a 30.7% decline, not a 43.5% rise.
    - THE MD&A SAYS IT: lost monthly GPU revenue was 'substantially offset by $12.3 million of termination fee revenue recorded'. The company discloses this itself.
    - AND IT IS UNPAID: after quarter end the fee was amended UP to $15.7M, and the 10-Q states that amount remains outstanding as of its own filing date.
    - THE EPS BEAT IS THE FEE: $12.3M over 38,662,914 shares is 31.8 cents. Filed EPS was $(0.39) basic and diluted; without the fee the quarter is nearer $(0.71).
    - OPERATING LOSS WAS FLAT: $9.3M vs $9.2M a year earlier, on 54.5% headline growth. Interest went from zero to $6.0M - $4.6M third-party, $1.4M to parent Bit Digital.
    - THE BULL CASE IS REAL: remaining performance obligation $1,008.0M, colocation $932.9M. Nscale NC-1 is ~$865M over 10 years, 40 MW, and bills from Q3 2026.
    - FUNDED BY CUSTOMERS: contract liabilities $143.1M vs $79.6M, on $72.6M of prepayments - 2.5x the $56.1M cash balance, and $63.6M of the $89.1M operating cash flow.
    - CASH: capex $344.7M in the half against $89.1M operating cash - free cash flow -$255.6M. Cash fell $114.4M to $56.1M; working capital swung to a $28.6M deficit.
    - THE $120M NOBODY MENTIONS: 54% of January's $222.1M convertible raise bought a zero-strike call on 5,905,511 of its own shares. Equity fell $145.1M on a $27.0M loss.
    - CONCENTRATION AND CONTROL: seven customers, largest at 63% of H1 revenue, three orders discontinued. Bit Digital owns 69.6% and is also a lender. Float is 24.4%.
    - VALUATION: EV $1.36B = 14.4x trailing sales, or 16.6x excluding the fee. Our base takes $380M of 2029 revenue at a 42% cash margin on 12x, less $760M of net debt.
    What to watch: UP: remaining performance obligation of $1,008.0M, of which $932.9M is colocation; the Nscale NC-1 order is roughly $865M over ten years across 40 MW and starts billing in Q3; colocation revenue tripled to $4.7M at a 63% cash gross margin; capacity targeted at 70 MW gross by year end. DOWN: revenue excluding the breakup fee fell 11.4%; cloud ex-fee fell 30.7%; operating loss was flat at $9.3M on 54.5% headline growth; H1 free cash flow was -$255.6M; seven customers with one at 63% of revenue; and a working capital deficit of $28.6M.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX) Q2 2026 Earnings: Record EBITDA, Minus $103.7M Cash
    Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX) Q2 2026 — Revenue $167.3M, up 47.4% - a record - against a $155.8M bar. Filed GAAP EPS is -$1.04, not the -$0.25 the feeds carry. The 8-K was accepted 7:26am ET on Aug 12, BEFORE the open, so Wednesday Aug 12 IS the reaction: $20.59 to $19.11, down 7.19%.
    Applied Aerospace & Defense reported its first quarter as a public company: record revenue of $167.3M up 47.4%, and record adjusted EBITDA of $36.4M. Over the same six months the business produced MINUS $103.7 million of free cash flow. The 8-K that moved the stock was accepted at 7:26am ET and contains no statement of cash flows; the 10-Q that does landed at 4:16pm, after the close.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A CASH-CONVERSION CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$8.05 vs ~$19.11 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $8.05 vs the $19.11 close - 58% BELOW the price and 68% below the Street's $25.20 average. Bear $2.02, base $8.05, bull $14.32.
    - THE ANGLE: the 8-K that moved the stock has no cash flow statement. The 10-Q that does landed 4:16pm ET, AFTER the close. Record EBITDA $36.4M; H1 FCF -$103.7M.
    - THE BRIDGE, six months: adjusted EBITDA $63.0M, less $46.7M working capital, less $40.8M cash interest, less $21.6M capex. Operating cash flow -$82.1M vs -$16.7M.
    - THE FINGERPRINT: contract assets $197.7M from $140.8M - 108 days of revenue recognised but unbilled. The prior-year half burned 7.4% of revenue; this one 27.2%.
    - THE $154.0M LOSS IS NOISE: a May 2026 modification vested ALL incentive units at the IPO ($113.2M of stock comp). Ex-stock-comp gross margin was 28.3%, flat vs 28.2%.
    - EPS BASIS: the filed loss per share is $(1.04) on 148,176,486 shares. Feeds carry $(0.25) against a +$0.007 adjusted-basis bar. The 'miss' framing is an artefact.
    - THE GROWTH WAS BOUGHT: headline +47.4%, organic +19.8%. CBI cost $374.8M on March 2 and brought $178.5M of the $258.7M backlog rise. Backlog now $1.13B.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET: $635.6M raised in June, $18.1M of cash at June 30. $626.2M went to debt, $305.8M to acquisitions. Liquidity $143.1M. Tangible book is negative.
    - THE GOOD NEWS: term loans peaked at $973.4M in March and stand at $400.5M. Clean Q2 interest was $19.5M ex a $6.7M write-off. It should roughly halve from here.
    - VALUATION: EV $3.71B = 24.3x guided EBITDA of $152.5M - CHEAPER than HEICO 39.7x and near TransDigm 20.0x. Our 2027 EPS $0.42 matches consensus $0.41 almost exactly.
    - WHY SELL ANYWAY: after $50M capex and $37M working capital, 2027 free cash flow is ~$25M = $0.14 a share, or 134x. Reverse DCF needs a 28.7% FCF margin by 2036.
    - THE STREET: five targets averaging $25.20 - Baird $30, Jefferies $25, Stifel $24, RBC $24, Morgan Stanley $23. ALL set June 28-29, 2026. None has seen this print.
    - WHAT BREAKS OUR THESIS: second-half cash. If the $197.7M contract-asset balance converts while H2 delivers the guided $368-388M, our assumption is wrong.
    What to watch: UP: revenue +47.4% to a record $167.3M; adjusted EBITDA +38.5% to $36.4M; backlog $1.13B; the FY26 revenue guide midpoint of $680M beats the $671.7M consensus; and $626.2M of debt repaid in June roughly halves the interest bill. DOWN: H1 free cash flow -$103.7M; $18.1M of cash after a $635.6M raise; contract assets of $197.7M equal 108 days of revenue; organic growth was 19.8% against a 47.4% headline; goodwill and intangibles of $934.7M exceed $827.9M of equity.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • AAON (AAON): Sales Doubled, the Guide Rose — and the Stock Fell 6%. Is AAON a Buy?
    AAON, Inc. (AAON) Q2 2026 — Reported BEFORE the open on August 10 (8-K accepted by EDGAR 07:12 ET). Net sales $627.0M, +101.2%; GAAP diluted EPS $0.68 vs ~$0.51 expected; backlog $1.97B, +98.0%. FY26 sales growth guidance RAISED to 55-60% - and FY26 gross margin guidance CUT to 25-26%. The stock fell 5.90% on the print, closing the week at $84.89.
    The number nobody printed: BASX-branded bookings were roughly $156M against $345M of BASX-branded revenue - a book-to-bill of 0.45x. The record $1.97B backlog fell $158.6M sequentially because the data-center order book is being drained faster than it is refilled.
    THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, A RECORD QUARTER, HALVED RETURNS ON CAPITAL) — base-case value ~$52.0 vs ~$84.89 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 4/5 - fair value ~$52 vs $84.89 (-39%). Ten-year DCF off the FY26 guide midpoint of $2.27B: growth 16% fading to 4%, EBIT margin 13.5% to 15.5%, 10% discount rate, 3.0% terminal growth = $51.70/sh. Bear $27.33, bull $74.26, weighted $51.25.
    - REVERSE DCF: at $84.89 the enterprise value is $7.56B - 25.3x trailing EBITDA and ~35x our $2.41 FY26E EPS. That price requires a 19.9% ten-year revenue CAGR or a flat 22.3% operating margin. AAON's best-ever was 19.5%, in 2023.
    - STREET: Buy - 5 buy / 0 hold / 0 sell. Every covering analyst CUT after the print and every one kept its rating: Oppenheimer $145 to $125, D.A. Davidson $125 to $105, Baird $102 to $98. Median $105. We DIVERGE.
    - THE QUARTER WAS EXTRAORDINARY: net sales $627.0M (+101.2%), operating income $68.9M (+192.1%), GAAP diluted EPS $0.68 vs ~$0.51 expected. BASX-branded sales $344.8M (+216.2%); AAON-branded $282.2M (+39.3%).
    - THE TAX RATE DID SOME OF THE WORK: the effective rate was 9.8% ($6.2M on $62.8M pre-tax) against 23.6% in Q1, driven by option-exercise windfalls. At Q1's rate diluted EPS would have been ~$0.57 - still a beat, but not the headline.
    - BACKLOG - THE NUMBER THAT MATTERS: total $1,970.8M (+98.0% y/y) but DOWN 7.4% sequentially from $2,129.5M. BASX-branded $1,430.4M fell $189.3M in the quarter. Derived book-to-bill: total 0.75x, AAON 1.11x, BASX 0.45x.
    - THE RAISE WAS ALSO A CUT: FY26 sales growth 55-60% (from 40-45%) but gross margin 25-26% (from 27-28%) - about $45M of gross profit, ~$0.43/share. H1 delivered $1,123.9M, so H2 implies ~$574M a quarter, BELOW the $627.0M just printed.
    - CASH IS THE PROBLEM: H1 operating cash flow $55.0M less $97.3M of capex = -$42.3M of free cash flow, after -$191.4M in 2025. Revolver drawn $435.0M of $600M; cash $12.7M. 2026 capex ~$190M. Net debt ~1.5x EBITDA.
    - RETURN ON CAPITAL - THE CORE OF THE CALL: ROIC was 22.9% in 2023, 16.6% in 2024, 9.1% in 2025 and 11.4% trailing. Invested capital rose $785.5M to $1,474.3M (+88%) while after-tax operating profit fell $179.7M to $168.7M.
    What to watch: Bullish: BASX book-to-bill back above 1.0x for two consecutive quarters, and full-year free cash flow crossing zero. Bearish: Q3 gross margin below the 25% floor, another sequential fall in BASX backlog, or revolver drawings above $500M.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min

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⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close:…