Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • Hims & Hers (HIMS) Q2 2026 Earnings: 31 Cents On The Dollar
    Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) Q2 2026 — Revenue $753.2M vs a $698.9M bar - a BEAT. GAAP EPS -$0.37 vs -$0.05. The 8-K landed 4:08pm ET Monday Aug 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday Aug 11 is the reaction: $31.77 to $30.51, down 3.97%.
    Revenue grew 38% to $753.2M and gross profit grew 15.5%. Every new dollar of revenue arrived carrying a 31% gross margin against a 76% base - and it is not a charge you can add back, because adjusted gross profit is identical to GAAP this quarter.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A MARGIN CALL, NOT A SOLVENCY CALL) — base-case value ~$17.0 vs ~$30.68 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $17.00 vs $30.68 - about 45% BELOW the price and 41% below the Street's $28.73 mean, but 36% ABOVE the $12.50 low target. Bear $4, base $14, bull $37, weighted 30/45/25.
    - THE ANGLE: revenue rose $208.4M year over year and gross profit rose only $64.6M. That is 31 cents of gross profit on every new dollar of revenue, against a business earning 76 cents on the old ones.
    - NOT A CHARGE: adjusted gross profit for Q2 is $480.8M - identical to GAAP. Zero add-backs; the $28.5M inventory write-down was Q1. The 64% gross margin, down from 76%, is the clean ongoing number.
    - THE PRINT: revenue $753.2M (+38%) beat the $698.9M bar by 7.8%. GAAP EPS -$0.37. But the company's own adjusted net loss is $20.8M = -$0.09 a share, so vs a -$0.05 bar the real miss is 4 cents.
    - THE COST SIDE: cost of revenue rose 112% on 38% revenue growth. Product and packaging costs +141%, shipping +56%, consultations +30%. Operating expenses added $188.5M against $64.6M of gross profit.
    - THE COMPANY'S OWN METRIC FELL: adjusted EBITDA $60.3M vs $82.2M, down 27% on revenue up 38%. Margin 8% vs 15%. The incremental adjusted EBITDA margin on a year of growth was MINUS 10.5%.
    - THE GUIDANCE: revenue raised to $3.1-3.3B (+$300M) but the adjusted EBITDA ceiling was CUT from $350M to $325M and the margin band fell from 10-12% to 9-10%. May excluded Eucalyptus; August includes it.
    - WHAT WORKED: subscribers +19% to 2.89M, revenue per subscriber +21% to $92/mo, marketing down to 34.8% of revenue from 40.0%, and Q3 guidance implies incremental adjusted EBITDA margin near 18%.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET: receivables jumped to $375.3M from $32.1M, of which $347.4M is manufacturer rebate receivable. On 1 July HIMS signed a $400M receivables-purchase facility with JPMorgan. FTC sued 29 July; $60M accrued.
    What to watch: UP: subscribers +19% to 2.89M; revenue per subscriber +21% to $92/mo; marketing down to 34.8% of revenue; Q3 guidance implies ~18% incremental adjusted EBITDA margin. DOWN: gross margin 64% vs 76%; adjusted EBITDA -27% on revenue +38%; equity down to $324.1M against $1.52B of goodwill and intangibles; a $60M FTC accrual.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q2 2026 Earnings: One Satellite Cost $158 Million
    AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Q2 2026 — Revenue $31.52M vs a $34.53M bar - a MISS. GAAP EPS minus $0.77 vs a minus $0.315 bar. The 8-K landed 4:38pm ET Monday Aug 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday Aug 11 is the reaction: $68.76 to $71.63, up 4.17%, then $74.28 - up 8.03% in two sessions on a double miss.
    On April 19 a New Glenn upper stage placed AST's BlueBird 7 satellite in an orbit too low to hold, and it was de-orbited. The write-off landed this quarter: the 10-Q says the loss net of $32.5M of insurance was approximately $125.9M - a $158.4M gross loss on one satellite and its launch. The balance-sheet line 'Satellites in orbit', covering every spacecraft AST has ever placed in service, is $235.4M.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A DOUBLE MISS, AND STILL ABOVE OUR OWN BULL CASE) — base-case value ~$28.0 vs ~$74.28 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $28.00 vs $74.28 - about 62% BELOW the price, 65% below the Street's $79.42 consensus and 45% below Scotiabank's $50.80, the lowest dated target. Bear $8, base $11, bull $70, weighted 30/45/25.
    - THE ANGLE: BB7 was de-orbited after New Glenn placed it too low. The 10-Q: the loss net of $32.5M insurance was approximately $125.9M - a $158.4M gross loss on one satellite and its launch, insurance covering 20.5 cents on the dollar.
    - THE COMPARISON: the balance-sheet line 'Satellites in orbit' - every spacecraft AST has placed in service - is $235.4M. One lost satellite was written off for 67% of the entire fleet, 5x the quarter's revenue and 20x its gross profit.
    - THE EPS BASIS: GAAP was minus $0.77 ($230.9M / 299,061,662 shares). Feeds reported minus $0.44 - that is ex-BB7. The same feed reported Q1 on GAAP at minus $0.66. The basis switched mid-year. A miss either way: 42% or 144% worse.
    - THE REVENUE MIX: products revenue was $24.43M of $31.52M - gateway equipment sold to mobile operators - at an 8.3% gross margin. Services, the US Government work, was $7.09M at 83.6%. Total gross profit was $7.95M.
    - THE GUIDANCE BRIDGE: FY2026 revenue guidance of $150-200M was reaffirmed. H1 actual was $46.26M, so H2 must deliver $103.7-153.7M - 2.2x to 3.3x the first half - weighted to Q4 and reliant on government awards.
    - THE CONSTELLATION: 13 spacecraft in orbit. The 10-Q says 25 are needed for limited service, about 45-60 for Continuous Service across the US, Europe and Japan, and about 90 for all markets. AST targets ~45 in early 2027.
    - THE FUNDING: cash $2,288.3M plus $434.6M restricted, ~$3.7B pro forma for July's $1,150M 1.625% convertible. But H1 operating cash flow was minus $145.2M and capex minus $859.2M - cash still FELL $57.1M.
    - THE REVERSE-DCF: $29.30B of enterprise value at a 12% required return needs $51.6B by 2031 - at 11x EBITDA, $4.7B of EBITDA and $9.4B of revenue, a 123% CAGR off a $175M guide. Roughly 260 million paying subscribers.
    What to watch: UP: revenue up from $1.16M a year ago; backlog to about $1.30B with over $125M of new US Government awards; six spacecraft launched inside 50 days to 13 in orbit; and a $1,150M convertible printed at 1.625%. DOWN: a double miss; products revenue carried an 8.3% gross margin; the 10-Q says the SpaceMobile Service has not launched and has generated no revenue; and FY guidance needs H2 to run 2.2-3.3x H1.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    17 min
  • Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 Earnings: $236M Of EBITDA, $260M Of Depreciation
    Nebius Group (NBIS) Q2 2026 — Revenue $582.3M vs a $569.9M bar - a BEAT, up 454% y/y and 46% q/q. Adjusted EBITDA swung to +$236.2M from -$21.0M. ARR hit $3.0B, up 56% in one quarter. The 6-K was accepted 9:15am ET, so August 12 IS the reaction session: $193.23 to $238.19, up 23.27% intraday.
    Nebius reported +$236.2M of adjusted EBITDA and the stock rose 23%. On the line directly above it, depreciation was $259.7M - the cost adjusted EBITDA is defined to exclude is bigger than the adjusted EBITDA itself. For the half, $471.7M against $365.7M. And in one sentence of the shareholder letter, Nebius disclosed it now uses a five-year useful life for server and network equipment, up from four years prior to 2026.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, GREAT QUARTER, PRICE ALREADY PAID FOR IT) — base-case value ~$220.0 vs ~$238.19 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $220.00 vs $238.19 - about 7.6% BELOW the price, but 1.3% ABOVE the Street's $217.13 average target and 10.3% ABOVE its $199.50 median. Bear $98, base $208, bull $366, weighted 50/25/25 on year-end ARR of $6.5B / $8.0B / $9.0B at 4x / 7x / 11x.
    - THE ANGLE: adjusted EBITDA was +$236.2M and depreciation the same quarter was $259.7M - the excluded cost is larger than the measure it was excluded from. For the half, $471.7M vs $365.7M, a ratio of 1.29x. Add $119.1M of interest and $102.5M of share comp and it is a $175.9M GAAP operating loss.
    - THE DISCLOSURE NOBODY QUOTED: the shareholder letter says Nebius now uses a five-year useful life for server and network equipment, up from four years prior to 2026. That cuts the annual depreciation rate on that equipment by 20%. On the old life the same charge is 25% higher - roughly $63M more per quarter.
    - THE EPS BASIS: GAAP diluted loss from continuing operations was $0.68 on 280,381,615 shares. The $0.12 the feeds carry is adjusted net loss of $33.2M over the same count - derived, never printed by Nebius. Proof: Q2 2025 adjusted loss $91.5M over 238,520,244 shares gives the $0.38 the same feed carries.
    - WHO FUNDS THE BUILDOUT: operating cash flow was $2,246.1M, but receivables gave $1,186.8M and deferred revenue $1,197.0M - $2,383.8M of working capital. Strip those and it is MINUS $137.7M, against $5,657.4M of capex. Deferred revenue went $1,577.5M to $5,975.2M in six months.
    - THE DEMAND IS REAL: AI cloud revenue $574.9M, up 514%. ARR $3.0B at 30 June, up 598% y/y and 56% from $1.9B in March. AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin 49.7%. Four deals over $1B of TCV each, ACV above $20M per megawatt, payback cut to 1 year 10 months, over $40B of commitments.
    - THE FUNDING CALENDAR: H1 financing was $9,160.4M - $4,337.5M of converts, $2,000.0M of pre-funded warrants, $2,846.7M of treasury shares - plus $775M of asset-backed debt in July at SOFR plus 250. The ATM sold 12.7M shares at $223.60 with 12.3M left. 2026 capex target $20-25B; $8.13B spent.
    - THE BREAK-EVEN TEST: at the 49.7% AI cloud margin, $8.0B of year-end ARR gives about $3.98B of adjusted EBITDA. Gross PP&E exits 2026 near $25-30B, which on a five-year life is $5.0-6.0B of depreciation a year. EBITDA only covers depreciation near $10-12B of ARR. Guidance exits 2026 at $7-9B.
    What to watch: UP: revenue $582.3M beat and grew 454%, ARR $3.0B up 56% in one quarter, AI cloud adjusted EBITDA margin 49.7%, four deals averaging over $1B of TCV, more than $40B of customer commitments, and 70% of Q2 deals prepaid, covering 50-60% of the associated capex. DOWN: $259.7M of depreciation exceeds $236.2M of adjusted EBITDA, the useful life went from four years to five, the $2.25B of operating cash flow is $2.38B of working capital, and $12-17B of 2026 capex is unfunded.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Liquidia (LQDA) Q2 2026 Earnings: The Same $40 Million, Three Quarters Running
    Liquidia (LQDA) Q2 2026 — Revenue $171.7M vs a $168.5M bar - a BEAT. Net income $74.7M, a record. Diluted EPS $0.74 vs $0.758 estimated looks like a miss, but BASIC EPS was $0.84. The 8-K was accepted 6:45am ET, so August 12 IS the reaction session: $88.05 to $84.00, down 4.60% intraday.
    Liquidia has added +$38.4M, then +$39.8M, then +$40.5M of quarterly YUTREPIA revenue - three quarters running, a spread of $2.1M on a mean of $39.6M. That is a straight line, not a growth curve. The growth RATE fell from 74% to 44% to 31% and the market sold it 4.6%, but a constant numerator over a growing denominator MUST produce a falling percentage. The deceleration everyone reported is arithmetic.
    THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A STRAIGHT LINE, NOT A GROWTH CURVE) — base-case value ~$57.0 vs ~$84.0 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $57.00 vs $84.00 - about 32.1% BELOW the price, 32.8% below the Street's $84.88 average and 23.5% below its $74.50 MEDIAN. Bear $10, base $58, bull $93, weighted 20/55/25.
    - THE ANGLE: YUTREPIA sales went $51.7M, $90.1M, $129.9M, $170.4M. The sequential ADDS were +$38.4M, +$39.8M, +$40.5M - three quarters within $2.1M of each other. Linear, not exponential. The rate fell 74% to 44% to 31% purely by division.
    - THE EPS MISS IS THE SHARE COUNT: basic EPS $0.84, diluted $0.74. Weighted basic 88,887,744 vs diluted 101,397,028. In the year-ago LOSS quarter 14,273,959 equivalents were excluded as anti-dilutive. Turning profitable switched them on; the denominator rose 18.5% while shares issued rose 4%.
    - THE CATEGORY, FROM UTHR'S OWN 8-K: total Tyvaso $452.6M, DOWN 4%. Tyvaso DPI +$11.4M of which $9.4M was PRICE. Category = $623.0M vs $476.1M, +30.9%. Liquidia's share went 1.4% to 27.4%.
    - THE LEADING INDICATOR: prescribers went 600 (Oct) to 860 (Feb) to 980 (Apr) to 1,100 (Jul) = 65, then 60, then 40 new prescribers per month. Patient starts stayed flat at ~420/month and conversion held above 85%. A reach problem, not an execution problem.
    - WHAT DID NOT CLEAR: Note 14 lists FIVE live United Therapeutics proceedings. The '327 patent trial was held JUNE 2025 and the decision is still PENDING - 14 months - with UTHR seeking to remove YUTREPIA from the market. Trade-secret trial is set for January 2027. Meanwhile legal fees FELL $5.5M, flattering the margin.
    - REVERSE DCF: EV $8.41B at 10.5% and 2.5% terminal needs $673M of free cash flow forever = $1.84B of revenue in perpetuity, or 74% of the entire $2.49B category. Run rate today is $686.7M.
    What to watch: UP: revenue $171.7M beat, product gross margin 93.7%, operating margin 49.8%, record net income $74.7M, 27.4% of the US inhaled treprostinil category taken from 1.4% in four quarters. DOWN: new prescribers per month have gone 65 to 60 to 40; five United Therapeutics lawsuits are live with one verdict pending since a June 2025 trial; the 8.5% tax rate is temporary.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • Cardinal Health (CAH) Q4 FY2026 Earnings: EPS Guided Up, Cash Guided Down
    Cardinal Health (CAH) Q4 FY2026 — Revenue $63.67B, +6%, MISSING the $65.03B bar. Non-GAAP EPS $2.91 vs $2.42 estimated - but $0.31 was a one-time IEEPA tariff refund, so the clean number is $2.60. The 8-K landed before the open, so August 11 IS the reaction: a record $258.30 intraday, closing $240.26.
    Cardinal Health guided FY2027 EPS UP 13-15% and adjusted free cash flow DOWN 20-30% in the same press release. The stock ran to a record $258.30 intraday and gave back 85% of the move to close at $240.26. Roughly half of FY2026's $5,174M operating cash flow came from working capital, not profit - and a distributor's float only pays while revenue accelerates. It has stopped.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, EARNINGS UP, CASH DOWN, SAME PRESS RELEASE) — base-case value ~$222.0 vs ~$240.26 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $222.00 vs the $240.26 record close - 7.6% BELOW the price and 18.5% below the Street's $272.50. Bear $201, base $223, bull $249 at 9.0/8.5/8.0% discount rates. Run backwards, $240.26 already assumes 9.1% owner-earnings growth for five years.
    - THE ANGLE: EPS guided UP 13-15%, free cash flow guided DOWN 20-30%, same release. FY26 operating cash flow $5,174M vs net earnings $1,705M; trade working capital contributed $2,567M, accounts payable alone $3,463M - two thirds of reported operating cash flow.
    - THE DECELERATION: FY26 revenue growth by quarter went +22.4%, +18.4%, +11.0%, +5.8%. Cardinal's own FY27 segment guidance implies +3.2% to +5.2%. FY26's 14% was the rebuild after losing OptumRx, a ~$40B/yr customer - never a run rate.
    - THE TARIFF: the Supreme Court voided the IEEPA tariffs in Feb 2026. Cardinal booked a NET ~$100M operating benefit, all in GMPD. Strip it and GMPD earned ~$50M vs $70M - DOWN ~29%. FY27 GMPD profit is guided to $200-220M, below the $258M just reported.
    - THE BASE GAME: FY27 guidance of $12.40-$12.60 is called '13-15% growth' - measured off an adjusted $10.95, not the $11.26 reported. Off the reported base it is +10.1% to +11.9%, BELOW Cardinal's own 12-14% long-term algorithm.
    - FY26: revenue $254.2B +14%; non-GAAP operating earnings $3,624M +30%; non-GAAP EPS $11.26 +37%. Net debt $4,030M, equity a DEFICIT of $2,724M, $4.3B opioid accrued to 2038. We reject the $250M acquisition-comp add-back; accept it and fair value is $259.
    What to watch: UP: non-GAAP operating earnings +30% to $3.62B with all five segments growing profit double digits; FY27 EPS guided $12.40-$12.60; $6.4B buyback authorisation on a $56B company. DOWN: FY27 free cash flow guided to $3.5-4.0B vs $4.97B; $0.31 of the $2.91 was a tariff refund; ex-tariff GMPD profit FELL; the stock is up 64% in a year.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) Q2 2026 Earnings: The $104B Backlog Only Lasts 2.6 Years
    CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Q2 2026 — Revenue $2.575B, +112% y/y, vs a $2.56B bar. Adjusted operating income $128M, roughly DOUBLE the ~$66M consensus. Adjusted EPS -$1.03 vs -$1.20; GAAP -$1.14. Backlog $103.7B. The 8-K landed 4:10pm ET Aug 11, AFTER the close: CRWV settled after hours at $104.52, +15.7%.
    CoreWeave reported revenue of $2.575 billion, up 112%, and a revenue backlog of $103.7 billion - more than eight times what it will bill this year. The stock jumped 15.7% after hours and every headline led with the backlog. Almost nobody read the next sentence in the filing: 41% of it is recognised inside 24 months, 39% in months 25-48, the rest by month 78. Weighted, the average life of the entire $103.7 billion is 31.6 months. The machines are depreciated over six years; the buildings are leased for twelve.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A DURATION CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$68.0 vs ~$104.52 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $68.00 vs the $104.52 after-hours settle - 34.9% BELOW the price. Bull $200, base $68, bear $9, deliberately UNWEIGHTED because the distribution is not symmetric. Street consensus $140.97 from 38 analysts (median $150, low $36, high $303): we are 51.8% below.
    - THE ANGLE - FOUR CLOCKS: the 10-Q shows $103.7B of unsatisfied RPO - 41% recognised inside 24 months, 39% in months 25-48, 20% in months 49-78. Weighted at the midpoints that is a 31.6-month average life, against technology equipment depreciated over 6 years and leases averaging 12 years.
    - THE FILING THE DAY BEFORE: on Aug 10 CoreWeave closed a $2.6B facility (DDTL 5.5, SOFR+5.5%, matures Sep 2031) whose 'approximate five-year maturity extends beyond the average three-year length of underlying customer contracts' - lenders 'underwriting renewal risk'. Rated BB+ / Ba2.
    - THE MEGAWATT TEST: $33,823M of technology equipment over 1,500 MW of active power = $22.5M/MW, plus $4.0M/MW of fit-out = a $26.5M build. Revenue annualised over ~1,250 average active MW = $8.24M/MW-year and $5.43M of contribution. Six years of that returns 7.2%; CRWV's bonds cost 9.75%.
    - THE PRINT: revenue $2,575M vs $1,212M (+112%). Cost of revenue $879M. G&A $178M vs $174M - up $4M on a business that doubled. GAAP operating LOSS $49M vs +$19M. Interest expense, net, $640M vs $267M (+140%). Net loss $626M. GAAP EPS -$1.14; adjusted -$1.03 vs a -$1.20 LSEG bar.
    - THE BEAT WAS REAL: adjusted operating income $128M roughly DOUBLED the ~$66M consensus and cleared the top of its own $30-90M guide by $38M. Adjusted EBITDA $1,510M (59%). FY26 raised: revenue $12.4-13.2B, adjusted operating income $960M-1.15B, year-end power above 1.85 GW.
    - THE FUNDING: Q2 operating cash flow +$679M - but $790M of that is deferred revenue, so ex-prepayments it is slightly negative. Capex $6,422M, funded with $13,457M of debt and $997M of stock. Debt principal $35,551M at 7%-15%; $15.0B due by end-2028. FY26 capex guided $35-39B.
    - VALUATION: 551.5M shares (458.9M Class A + 92.7M Class B) at $104.52 = $57.6B equity, plus $35.1B debt and $16.3B leases, less $6.9B cash = $102.3B EV - 8.0x 2026 revenue and 97x adjusted operating income. Top three customers are 72% of revenue, down from ONE at 71% a year ago.
    What to watch: UP: adjusted operating income of $128M doubled consensus, G&A rose $4M on revenue that doubled, backlog is up 246% with $25B+ added in early Q3, and the top customer fell from 71% to 36%. DOWN: enterprise value is $102.3B for $12.8B of revenue, interest grew 140% vs revenue's 112%, and a megawatt returns 7.2% while CRWV's bonds cost 9.75%.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • On Holding (ONON) Q2 2026 Earnings: Down 20% On A Record 65.4% Gross Margin
    On Holding AG (ONON) Q2 2026 — Net sales CHF 850.3M, +21.6% constant currency. Gross margin a record 65.4% vs 61.5%, while fully absorbing US tariffs. Adjusted EBITDA CHF 168.1M, 19.8% margin. Adjusted diluted EPS Class A CHF 0.35 vs CHF (0.09). The 6-K was accepted 10:10 UTC, before the open, so the -20.29% close at $30.91 IS the reaction session.
    On raised full-year gross-margin guidance to a record 65.0%, held its 19.5-20.0% adjusted EBITDA margin guidance, and grew direct-to-consumer 34.3% in constant currency to a record 45.7% of sales - and the stock fell 20.29% on 9.5x normal volume. Only ONE of three guided lines moved: constant-currency sales growth went from at least 23% to the low-20% range, and the entire shortfall is wholesale, halved from 25.1% to 12.7% because On deliberately shipped less into a promotional market.
    THE CALL: BUY (3/5, A CHANNEL DECISION, NOT A DEMAND BREAK) — base-case value ~$36.0 vs ~$30.91 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: BUY 3/5, fair value $36.00 vs the $30.91 reaction close - 16.5% above, and BELOW the $39.50 post-print Street average. Bear $22.62, base $37.22, bull $55.40; weighted 30/50/20 = $36.48; discount rate 10.5%, terminal growth 2.75%. Run backwards, $30.91 assumes only 8.9% compounding for ten years.
    - THE ANGLE: the revenue cut and the record margin are the SAME decision. FY2026 constant-currency growth cut from at least 23% to the low-20% range; gross margin RAISED from 64.5% to at least 65.0%; EBITDA margin HELD at 19.5-20.0%. One line down, one up, one held - the market marked all three down.
    - THE PRINT: net sales CHF 850.3M (+13.5%, +21.6% cc). DTC CHF 388.4M (+34.3% cc), 45.7% of sales. Wholesale CHF 461.9M (+12.7% cc, from +25.1% in Q1). Gross profit CHF 555.7M, 65.4% margin. Adjusted EBITDA CHF 168.1M, 19.8%. Net income CHF 105.0M. Cash CHF 1,205.6M, no financial debt.
    - THE 356% THAT WAS NOT REAL: net income swung CHF +145.9M, from CHF (40.9)M to CHF 105.0M. The foreign-exchange line alone swung CHF +143.2M, from CHF (139.9)M to CHF +3.3M - 98% of the move, and non-cash. The operating result rose an ordinary 28.7%, CHF 92.8M to CHF 119.4M.
    - THE BEAR CASE: the Americas is CHF 451.6M, 53.1% of net sales, and its constant-currency growth has gone 21.3%, 17.1%, 13.0% across three straight quarters. Our base case assumes it stops there. If Q3 shows the Americas below 10% cc the thesis is wrong and $22.62 is the right number.
    - WALL STREET: consensus into the print was Buy - 20 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell across 26 analysts, average target $46.50. Goldman $46 to $42, Telsey $51 to $43, Stifel $60 to $41, Williams Trading $38 to $32 - those four averaged $48.75 before and $39.50 after: a 19% cut in a day.
    What to watch: UP: gross-margin guidance RAISED to at least 65.0% and EBITDA margin HELD at 19.5-20.0%; DTC +34.3% cc to a record 45.7% of sales; APAC +54.7% cc; CHF 1,205.6M cash and NO financial debt; 11.2x guided EBITDA. DOWN: the Americas is 53.1% of sales and its cc growth has gone 21.3%, 17.1%, 13.0% over three straight quarters; 59% of base-case EV is terminal value.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Camtek (CAMT) Q2 2026 Earnings: Record Revenue, ZERO Extra Operating Profit
    Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) Q2 2026 — Revenue $133.2M, a record, +8.0% y/y. Non-GAAP EPS $0.78 vs a $0.761 bar - but $0.79 a year ago. GAAP EPS $0.46 vs $0.69, -33%. Q3 guided $158-160M, +20% q/q. The 6-K landed 7:16am ET Aug 10, BEFORE the open: CAMT gapped to $169.94 (+9.4%), fell to $147.75 (-4.9%), closed $158.10, +1.77%.
    Camtek printed the biggest quarter in its history - $133.2 million of revenue - and guided September up 20% sequentially to $158-160 million. The stock opened up 9.4% and closed up 1.77%. Here is why: March-quarter operating income was $27.266 million and June-quarter operating income was $27.227 million. Camtek added $11.6 million of revenue and zero operating profit, and the $0.78 the market called a beat is a penny BELOW the $0.79 it earned a year ago on 8% less revenue.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A PRICE CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$126.0 vs ~$164.41 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $126.00 vs the $164.41 close on Aug 11 - 23.4% BELOW the price. Bull $168, base $126, bear $84, weighted 25/50/25. Street consensus is $177.11 (median $175, high $200, low $145) from nine analysts, so we are 28.9% below the Street and below even its $145 low.
    - THE ANGLE - RECORD REVENUE, ZERO EXTRA PROFIT: Q1 2026 GAAP operating income was $27.266M; Q2 2026 was $27.227M. Revenue between those quarters rose $11.584M and operating profit fell $39 THOUSAND. Gross profit rose $5.773M; operating expenses rose $5.812M - more than the profit they produced.
    - THE YEAR-ON-YEAR VERSION: revenue +8.0%, gross profit +6.5%, total operating expenses +28.8% - $2.16 of new cost for every $1.00 of new gross profit. R&D alone +45.4%, $11.474M to $16.684M. GAAP operating income -14.8% to $27.227M; GAAP diluted EPS $0.46 vs $0.69, -33.3%.
    - SIX STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF MARGIN DECLINE: GAAP operating margin ran 27.6% (Mar 25), 25.9%, 25.3%, 24.8%, 22.4%, 20.4% (Jun 26) - 720 basis points surrendered while revenue rose 12.3%. The company's own non-GAAP series has the same slope, 31.5% to 27.0%.
    - THE 'BEAT' IS A YEAR-ON-YEAR DECLINE: non-GAAP EPS $0.78 vs a $0.761 bar, but $0.79 a year ago on 8% LESS revenue - the Street bar was already 3.7% below last year's actual. Add-backs were $16.143M, 69.3% of GAAP net income, vs $5.143M and 15.3% a year ago: $7.700M unexplained 'one-time tax', $4.873M stock comp, $3.570M acquisition.
    - THE CASH: Q2 operating cash flow was just $12.2M on $23.3M of GAAP net income. Trade receivables went $90.829M (Dec 31) to $153.921M (Jun 30), +69.5%, DSO 65 to 105 days. Cash, deposits and securities fell $849.7M to $815.8M. No buyback, no dividend; diluted shares 49.327M to 51.520M, +4.4%.
    - THE HBM STORY IS CURRENTLY A CHINA STORY: 2025 revenue by destination was China $243.9M (49.2%, up from 30.9% in 2024) and Korea $36.9M (down 68.5% from $117.1M). China grew $111.4M while total revenue grew $66.8M. Asia Pacific is ~91% of sales; the largest customer was 11%.
    - VALUATION: 51.52M diluted shares at $164.41 = $8.47B, less $815.8M of cash = $7.65B EV. That is 13.0x 2026 revenue and 11.0x the 2027 consensus of $698M; 46.9x 2026 earnings and 36.3x the 2027 consensus of $4.52. Owner-earnings DCF gives $97; 30x 2027 EPS gives $136; 10x 2027 sales gives $151.
    What to watch: UP: orders year to date exceed $600M vs $496.1M of 2025 revenue, the H2 guide was RAISED to 'more than 30%', and at $159M on a flat $40M cost base operating margin snaps back to ~25% in one print. DOWN: GAAP operating margin has fallen six quarters, 27.6% to 20.4%, DSO went 65 to 105 days, and the price assumes 26.3% owner-earnings growth for five years.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • ChipMOS (IMOS) Q2 2026 Earnings: Record Since 2014 - The Beat Was PRICE, Not Volume
    ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. (IMOS) Q2 2026 — Revenue NT$7,383.1M / US$231.8M at NT$31.85, +6.5% q/q and +28.7% y/y - the best quarter since 2014. Gross margin 18.0% vs 13.8% in March and 6.6% a year ago. EPS US$0.80 per basic ADS vs a US$0.64 bar, a 25% BEAT. The 6-K landed 6:10am ET Aug 11, BEFORE the open, so Aug 11 IS the reaction: +11.74% to $59.28 on 1.84x volume.
    ChipMOS printed its best quarter since 2014 - revenue NT$7,383.1 million (about US$231.8 million), gross margin 18.0% against 13.8% three months earlier, and US$0.80 per basic ADS against a US$0.64 bar. The stock rose 11.74%. But that revenue had been public since July 10 - Taiwan requires monthly revenue filings - so the only thing that could surprise was margin. Utilization was only 72%, and assembly utilization FELL from 84% to 78%. The beat was a price rise, and the Board spent it the same morning.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A CAPEX CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$63.0 vs ~$59.28 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $63.00 per ADS vs the $59.28 reaction close - about 6% above. Bull $96, base $63, bear $24, weighted 55/25/20. There is NO US sell-side coverage; the only live coverage is 3 Taipei analysts on TWSE 8150 averaging NT$123, about $77 per ADS, so we are 18% BELOW them.
    - THE ANGLE - PRICE, NOT VOLUME: overall utilization was 72% vs 71% in March, and ASSEMBLY UTILIZATION FELL from 84% to 78%. Gross margin still went 13.8% to 18.0% because the chairman 'selectively raised the memory OSAT price'. Revenue rose NT$447.5M sequentially and gross profit NT$370.1M: 83 cents of every incremental dollar dropped through.
    - THE CASH: 1H26 operating cash flow NT$1,531.7M against a NT$3,209.6M investing outflow; cash went NT$14,858.9M to NT$12,552.3M, DOWN NT$2,306.6M in the best half since 2014. Q2 capex alone, NT$2,380.2M, exceeded the whole half's operating cash flow by NT$848.5M.
    - WHY THE DECK STILL SAYS 'FREE CASH FLOW +NT$735.9M': its own footnote starts from operating PROFIT plus D&A, not operating cash, so it contains no working capital at all - no receivables, no payables, no inventory. Inventory turnover days went 50 (Jun 25) to 60 (Mar 26) to 70 (Jun 26).
    - THE DECISION MADE THE SAME DAY: the Board raised the 2026 capex plan on the morning of the beat. CFO Silvia Su: usually about 20% of revenue, this year 'likely exceeding 25%', and 2027 'will likely exceed 25% of revenue again'. Q2 capex was 1.95x depreciation (NT$2,380.2M vs NT$1,218.1M) and depreciation has been FALLING - the 2014-vintage plant is largely written off.
    - THE BALANCE SHEET: the release leads with 'US$394.1 million of cash' - but that is not net cash. Borrowings were about NT$15.82B against NT$12.38B of cash at 31 March (net debt ~US$108M). At 31 December 2024 it was NT$13.76B of borrowings against NT$15.22B of cash - net CASH. The July dividend (NT$1.23/share, US$0.760/ADS) came out of CAPITAL SURPLUS.
    - THE BASIS, PROVEN: 1 ADS = 20 ordinary shares. NT$1.28 x 20 / 31.85 = US$0.804, matching the reported US$0.80; it checks again on Q1, on Q2 2025 and on the dividend. The 'revenue miss' is pure FX: NT$7,383.1M / 236.95 = 31.16, but the company translated at 31.85.
    What to watch: UP: July revenue NT$2,823.0M, +11.2% m/m and +43.6% y/y - the biggest month since 2014; DRAM demand 'continues to exceed supply'; 28 points of unused utilization sit under an 18% margin, already paid for, at 8.0x EBITDA. DOWN: cash fell NT$2,306.6M in the half, Q2 capex alone exceeded the half's operating cash flow, and the Board voted capex above 25% of revenue for BOTH 2026 and 2027.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • Super Micro (SMCI) Q4 FY2026 Earnings: $2.2B Profit, $6.8B Of Cash GONE
    Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Q4 FY2026 — Net sales $11.120B vs $5.757B (+93.2%), MISSING an $11.599B bar by 4.1%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.70 vs $0.923, an 84% BEAT; GAAP $1.62. Gross margin 17.5% vs 9.9% in March against the company's own 8.2-8.4% guidance. The 8-K was accepted 4:06pm ET Tue Aug 11 (AMC), so the $31.60 close is the session BEFORE the print; the after-hours move was about +6.2% to ~$33.57.
    Supermicro printed the best quarter in its history: gross margin 17.5% against 9.9% three months earlier, net income $1.178 billion, and non-GAAP earnings of $1.70 against a $0.923 bar - an 84% beat, on a 4% revenue MISS. But the cash flow statement in the same press release says fiscal 2026 turned $2.230 billion of profit into MINUS $6.810 billion of operating cash, and the company's own prospectus says the June raise existed to buy components for orders it had not yet shipped.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A FINANCING CALL, NOT A DEMAND CALL) — base-case value ~$34.0 vs ~$31.6 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $34.00 vs the $31.60 pre-print close - about 8% above, and only ~1% above the ~$33.57 after-hours print. We are 21% under the $43.20 Street consensus on the SAME Hold rating. Bull $62, base $34, bear $17.
    - THE ANGLE: FY2026 GAAP net income +$2.230B; FY2026 net cash used in operating activities MINUS $6.810B; less $162M capex, free cash flow MINUS $6.972B. FY2025 was POSITIVE $1.660B of operating cash on $1.049B of profit - so cash used to be better than profit, and is now ~$9B worse.
    - WORKING CAPITAL: inventories $4.680B to $12.896B (+175.5%) and receivables $2.204B to $6.125B (+177.9%), both more than twice the 77.8% revenue growth. Inventory days 82 to 128, receivable days 35 to 50, payable days flat at 22. Cash conversion cycle 94 days to 156 days.
    - THE BEAT DECOMPOSED: not tax (rate rose 8.7% to 19.7%), not a one-off ($22M other income on $1.470B pretax), and not the share count - net income over LAST year's 624.7M diluted shares is $1.886 vs $1.62 reported, so the bigger denominator COST $0.27. At March's 9.94% margin gross profit would have been $1.105B not $1.943B: ~95c a share against a 78c beat.
    - WHO PAID: financing provided $9.479B - $4.469B of loans, $1.407B of common stock and $4.231B of 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred (SMCIP). The 424B5 use of proceeds says it was 'to fund the purchase of components to satisfy the approximately $39 billion of orders that the Company has received in recent weeks' from more than 20 customers.
    - DILUTION: diluted shares 624.7M (Q4 FY25) to 705.0M (Q4 FY26) to a guided 745M for Q1 FY27, 761M non-GAAP. The mandatory preferred converts into 130.7M-156.8M new shares by 1 June 2029 - 21-26% of the 613.5M basic count - and the LOWER the stock, the MORE shares it becomes. Preferred dividends ~$302M a year.
    - GUIDANCE AND GOVERNANCE: FY2027 revenue $65-72B vs a ~$52.5B Street; Q1 FY27 $14.5-15.5B and GAAP EPS $0.89-0.98. But results are PRELIMINARY, the auditor 'has not audited, reviewed, compiled or performed any procedures', and the Board has an open export-control review that could affect 'prior period results'.
    What to watch: UP: FY2027 revenue guided to $65-72B against a ~$52.5B Street, on more than $60B of new orders and record backlog; 8.7x non-GAAP earnings, 5.8x EBITDA; June-quarter operating cash flow POSITIVE $747M; deferred revenue quadrupled to $2.612B. DOWN: FY2026 free cash flow was minus $6.972B; full-year margin FELL to 10.8%; guidance implies 17.5% does NOT repeat; the preferred adds 131-157M shares by 2029; results are PRELIMINARY; export-control review open.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min

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⚡ Charged Alpha — The S&P 500 Stock Encyclopedia Data-driven deep dives into every stock in the S&P 500 after every earnings report. Each episode breaks down one company from open to close:…