Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Cirrus Logic, Inc. (CRUS) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027: revenue $459.7M, +12.9% y/y, a record first quarter. GAAP EPS $1.47; non-GAAP $1.84 vs a $1.81 non-GAAP bar. But the 10-Q puts one end customer at 90% of net sales vs 86%. Reported AMC Aug 5; Aug 6 close -4.57%.

Cirrus Logic posted a record June quarter - revenue up 12.9%, non-GAAP EPS up 21.9%. It also came out of that quarter MORE dependent on one customer: Apple went from 86% of net sales to 90%, and non-Apple revenue FELL 19.4% to $46M. The stock closed down 4.57% the next day.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE QUARTER IS REAL; THE CONCENTRATION IS THE RISK) — base-case value ~$131.00 vs ~$124.92 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $131 vs the $124.92 close (+4.8%), and 18.1% BELOW the $160 Street target. Owner earnings = GAAP net income $430.6M + D&A $52.6M - capex $27.6M = $455.6M; growth 4%/2.5%/2% terminal at 11.0%. EV $5.69B (terminal only 44%) + $1.12B net cash over 52.0M shares = $130.88. Bull $145, bear $114.

- THE PRINT: revenue $459.723M, +12.9% y/y, a record first quarter. Audio $249.0M (+3.7%); High-Performance Mixed-Signal $210.7M (+26.0%), now 46% of sales. Gross margin 52.6% GAAP / 52.7% non-GAAP, flat y/y. GAAP EPS $1.47, non-GAAP $1.84 vs $1.81. Q2 FY27 guided $510-570M.

- EPS BASIS, PROVEN NOT ASSUMED: the 1.84 vs 1.81 is the NON-GAAP line, not GAAP's $1.47. Proof the basis does not switch: FY26 non-GAAP EPS 1.51+2.83+2.97+1.95 = $9.26, exactly the $9.26 full-year figure Cirrus Logic reported. The beat is real - and it is 3 cents, 1.7%.

- THE ANGLE - DIVERSIFICATION IN REVERSE: the 10-Q puts one end customer, Apple, at ~90% of net sales vs 86% a year ago. Applied to reported net sales, Apple rose 18.1% to $413.8M while everything else FELL 19.4%, $57.0M to $46.0M. The largest customer grew faster than the company - so every non-Apple dollar went backwards.

- THE GUIDANCE CUSHION HIT ZERO: guide midpoint vs actual - Q4 FY25 +11.7%, Q1 FY26 +13.1%, Q2 FY26 +3.9%, Q3 FY26 +9.5%, Q4 FY26 +1.9%, then Q1 FY27 at -0.1%, the first miss of their own midpoint. Q2 FY27 is guided $510-570M, the IDENTICAL range guided a year ago that printed $561.0M - now 'down 4% y/y at the midpoint'.

- QUALITY OF THE EPS GROWTH: non-GAAP pre-tax income $116.4M vs $103.1M = +12.9%, identical to revenue - zero operating leverage. Net income +19.7% purely on the tax rate falling 22.1% to 17.4% (FY27 guided 16-18%). Buyback test: $96.1M over LAST year's 53.3M shares = $1.80 vs $1.84 - only 10% of the gain.

- BALANCE SHEET AND STREET: cash and securities $1.167B, no drawn debt, $350M revolver undrawn. Trailing FCF $571.0M (28% margin) on $598.6M operating cash flow. Inventory $262.7M, DOWN from $279.0M. Q1 buyback 211,099 shares at $163.43; post-quarter 359,350 at $140.53. FMP consensus $160 (high $190, low $130), 15 buy / 5 hold / 2 sell.

What to watch: UP: record Q1 revenue $459.7M (+12.9%), non-GAAP EPS $1.84 (+21.9%), HPMS +26.0% and now 46% of sales, $571M trailing FCF, $1.167B cash with no drawn debt, and a price implying only 2.6% growth. DOWN: Apple 86% to 90% of sales, non-Apple revenue -19.4%, FY27 PC expectations LOWERED, zero operating leverage, September guided -4% y/y.

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DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

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Educational only. Not financial advice.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026: revenue $5,732M, +24% y/y. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,804M, +27%. Cheniere Distributable Cash Flow $1.17B on 184 cargoes. GAAP diluted EPS $14.65 - but the $3.11 bar is non-GAAP, and on that basis it was $3.02, a 2.9% MISS. Guidance RAISED again. Reported BMO Aug 6: +4.32%, then -3.62%.

Cheniere raised full-year guidance a second time, and the Adjusted EBITDA guide now sits 17.4% ABOVE what the company actually earned in 2025. The Distributable Cash Flow reaching Cheniere is guided up 4.9%. Eight points of cash conversion gone - and the stock handed back its 4.3% pop the next day.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE QUARTER IS STRONG; THE CASH CONVERSION IS THE RISK) — base-case value ~$278.00 vs ~$256.14 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $278 vs the $256.14 close (+8.4%). Cash-flow-to-equity built on Distributable Cash Flow: 2026 guided DCF $5.55B less ~$1.75B of growth-capital drag; FCFE $4.05B in 2027 to $5.10B in 2030; 9.75% discount, 1.25% terminal = $277.66/share. Terminal value is 73% of it. Bull $313, bear $250.

- THE PRINT: Q2 revenue $5,732M (+24%) against a $4,916M estimate. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1,804M (+27%). Cheniere Distributable Cash Flow $1.17B. 184 cargoes vs 154; 672 TBtu, +22%. Adjusted EBITDA per MMBtu $2.68 vs $2.57, +4.3%.

- EPS BASIS PROVEN BOTH WAYS: GAAP diluted EPS was $14.65, but the $3.11 consensus bar is non-GAAP. Adjusted Net Income $632M / 209.5M diluted = $3.017, the $3.02 vendors published. Q1 2026: GAAP loss $3,502M / 210.5M = -$16.65, their Q1 figure. The basis switched between consecutive quarters. On the adjusted ruler: a 2.9% MISS.

- THE ANGLE - THE CONVERSION GAP. FY2025 ACTUAL: Adjusted EBITDA $6.94B, Cheniere DCF $5.29B = 76.2% conversion. FY2026 GUIDE after two raises: $8.15B and $5.55B = 68.1%. EBITDA guidance is +17.4% on last year's actual; the cash reaching Cheniere, +4.9%.

- WHY CONVERSION FELL. Deductions between Adjusted EBITDA and consolidated DCF: $0.66B in 2025, $1.55B guided for 2026. Interest goes -$0.76B to -$1.0B (+32%) as finished trains stop capitalising interest, and cash tax swings from a POSITIVE $0.37B to a cost - $0.76B of the $0.89B. The CQP minority takes $1.0-1.1B.

- THE BASE THE RAISE CAME OFF. Initial FY2026 guidance (Feb 26) was $4.35-4.85B of DCF - 13.0% BELOW the $5.29B just delivered. Off that guide the raise reads +20.7%; off the 2025 actual, +4.9%. PER SHARE: DCF/share $24.01 to $26.68, +11.1%, while dollars grew 4.9% - 56% of it is the buyback.

- WALL STREET: 1 strong buy / 24 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell, 27 analysts (FMP); target $291.67, median $289, high $310, low $279 - the lowest is above our $278. WHAT COULD MAKE US WRONG: the guide implies H2 EBITDA 3.0% BELOW H1 with two trains starting, where 2025's H2 ran +11%.

What to watch: UP: revenue +24% to $5.73B, Adjusted EBITDA +27% to $1.80B, 184 cargoes vs 154, guidance raised twice, Train 6 complete and Train 7 imminent, 40+ mtpa in permitting priced at zero by us. DOWN: conversion 76.2% to 68.1%, interest and cash tax take $0.76B more, the minority takes $1.0-1.1B, 56% of per-share growth is the buyback.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

Vishay Intertechnology, Inc. (VSH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended July 4, 2026): GAAP revenue $888.6M, +16.6% y/y. Diluted EPS $0.19 vs a $0.1452 bar - a 30.9% BEAT, and adjusted EPS equals GAAP EPS exactly. Operating margin 6.0% from 2.9%. The 8-K was accepted 7:30am ET Aug 5 (BMO), so Aug 5 IS the reaction: $38.85 to $33.18, DOWN 10.61%. Aug 7 recovered to $35.41.

Vishay beat by 31% against a bar that had been RAISED fourteen-fold, guided higher, and printed a 1.32 book-to-bill - and the stock fell 10.6%. Its own 10-Q explains it: 81.6% of the quarter's capital budget went into MOSFETs, the one segment earning a 1.4% operating margin and the only one whose book-to-bill FELL.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE BEAT IS REAL; THE CAPITAL BUDGET IS THE RISK) — base-case value ~$34.00 vs ~$35.41 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $34 vs the $35.41 close Fri Aug 7 (-4.0%). Owner-earnings DCF: 2027 revenue $4.28B at a 10.5% operating margin, +$250M depreciation, -$370M capex, -$55M working capital = $130M free cash flow, rising to $399M by 2031. At 9.5% WACC / 2.5% terminal, EV $4.97B + net cash over 161M diluted = $32.81. 18x 2027 EPS = $34. Bear $18 / bull $56.

- THE PRINT: GAAP revenue $888.575M (+16.6%); adjusted $918.583M. EPS $0.19 vs $0.1452 = +30.9%. BASIS PROVEN: adjusted net earnings $28.124M EQUALS GAAP $28.124M (the tariff items cancel). Operating income $53.526M, 6.0% vs 2.9%. Tax 33.7%. Q3 guide $945-975M at 24.0%.

- CUT-BAR TEST FAILED IN VISHAY'S FAVOUR: the $0.1452 bar was ~14x the year-ago GAAP EPS of $0.01, and year-ago ADJUSTED was a LOSS of $(0.07) - RAISED, then cleared. Not non-operating (other income -$0.794M), not acquired (+17.5% volume). GAAP gross margin 23.3% is flattered ~70bp by $30.0M of tariff refunds; like-for-like 22.6%.

- THE ANGLE - CAPITAL ALLOCATION. Q2 capex $95.201M: MOSFETs $77.696M (81.6%), Diodes $4.835M, Capacitors $4.791M, Resistors $4.052M, Inductors $1.977M, Optoelectronics $0.787M. Six months $172.378M of $205.862M = 83.7%. MOSFET capex is 5.2x its own $14.926M depreciation.

- SEGMENT MARGINS / ORDERS. Q2 segment operating margins: Inductors 27.1%, Capacitors 21.4%, Diodes 19.6%, Resistors 17.1%, Optoelectronics 13.6%, MOSFETs 1.4%. Book-to-bill: Resistors 1.26 to 1.43, Inductors 1.31 to 1.42 - and MOSFETs 1.57 to 1.08, the only one to FALL.

- CASH AND SHARE COUNT. Q2 free cash $10.313M on $888.6M revenue (1.2%); six months NEGATIVE $36.613M. 2026 capex guided $400-440M, about half into the Itzehoe 12-inch fab. The 70%-of-free-cash policy means ZERO buybacks in 2026. 141,282,019 common + 12,097,148 Class B = 153,379,167 shares, so the true cap at $35.41 is $5.431B, not the $5.00B on screens. Net cash $314.6M, EV $5.12B. Vishay sold 17,250,000 shares at $50.00 on 29 Jun (12.7% dilution).

- WALL STREET: 4 buy / 4 hold / 2 sell; consensus target $42.50. CAVEAT: both live targets are initiations dated Aug 4 2026, the day BEFORE the print, unrevised for the 10.6% drop; a Stifel $25 from Sept 2024 was rejected as stale. We are 20% BELOW the Street while forecasting MORE earnings: 2027 EPS $1.89 vs $1.71.

What to watch: UP: +16.6% revenue on +17.5% volume, operating margin 2.9% to 6.0%, book-to-bill 1.32, backlog 6.1 months (+60% y/y), Q3 guided $945-975M, $315M net cash. DOWN: 81.6% of capex into the 1.4%-margin segment at 5.2x its depreciation, book-to-bill 1.57 to 1.08, free cash $10.3M, 12.7% dilution at $50.00.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $117.1M, up 89.6% y/y, a record. Adjusted EPS -$0.09 vs a ~-$0.156 bar - a BEAT (the -$0.19 on the screens is GAAP). Gross margin a record 27.8% vs -30.9%. Adjusted EBITDA -$3.2M. 8-K accepted 4:28pm ET Aug 5 (AMC), so Aug 6 is the reaction: closed $11.83 (+10.4%); Aug 7 added 14.9% to $13.59.

Redwire posted record revenue, record gross margin and a record backlog - and every one of them came from Defense Tech, the drone business it bought with stock in 2025. The Space segment, the entire reason this stock carries a space multiple, shrank 2.6%, swung to a segment-level EBITDA loss, and booked just $0.37 of new work per dollar billed. Revenue per share FELL 23.0%.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, RECORD EVERYTHING, AND NONE OF IT WAS SPACE) — base-case value ~$8.65 vs ~$13.59 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $8.65 vs the $13.59 close on Fri Aug 7 (-36.4%). FCF is negative so we use a path-to-profitability model: grow Defense Tech 30%/yr and Space 3%/yr to ~$950M of 2030 revenue, hold Defense Tech at the 22.8% segment margin just delivered and Space at 10%, less $120M corporate = $57M of 2030 Adjusted EBITDA. 15x, discounted 4 years at 12%, plus net cash = $3.39. A 4.5x-2028-sales model gives $10.57, bull $17.10. Weighted 45/35/20 = $8.65.

- THE PRINT: revenue $117.074M, up 89.6% y/y, a record. ADJUSTED EPS -$0.09 vs -$0.31 a year ago, which BEAT the ~-$0.156 bar. The -$0.19 widely printed as a miss is GAAP; the bridge is +$0.02 stock comp, +$0.01 debt costs, +$0.07 for a $14.5M non-cash warrant mark. Gross margin a record 27.8% vs NEGATIVE 30.9%. R&D $12.5M vs $1.7M. Adjusted EBITDA still -$3.2M; Q2 FCF -$35.3M.

- THE ANGLE: Defense Tech revenue went $5.078M to $61.882M (+$56.8M) while total revenue rose only $55.3M - so it supplied 103% of the growth and SPACE SUBTRACTED. Space revenue $55.192M vs $56.682M, -2.6%; LTM $208.9M vs $220.3M, -5.2%. Segment Adjusted EBITDA: Defense Tech +$14.083M (22.8%) vs Space -$4.203M, so Defense Tech is 143% of segment profit. Space book-to-bill 0.37 vs Defense Tech 2.35.

- DILUTION + THE RAISE: shares outstanding 249,221,102 vs 191,915,804 at Dec 31, up 29.9% in six months; weighted-average diluted 220.47M vs 89.55M. Revenue per share $0.531 vs $0.690, DOWN 23.0%. Total liquidity $607.8M (+366.9%) was funded by $566.2M of H1 stock issuance via the ATM, against H1 operating cash flow of -$31.6M and FCF -$48.0M. Guide $450-500M unmoved since Feb 25.

- BACKLOG QUALITY: backlog a record $542.1M vs $411.2M at Dec 31. Of the $130.9M build, $108.7M (83%) was Defense Tech, whose backlog nearly doubled to $220.2M; Space backlog rose only 7.4% to $322.0M. Backlog recognised at a POINT IN TIME - product shipped, not multi-year programs - jumped to $186.2M from $81.0M. H1 revenue $214.0M, so the guide needs $236-286M in H2. Street: Buy, $14.88.

What to watch: UP: revenue +89.6% to a record $117.1M, a record 27.8% gross margin, Defense Tech on a 22.8% segment margin and a 2.35 book-to-bill, LTM book-to-bill 1.52 vs 0.87, record $542.1M backlog, $506M net cash, accelerating NATO and US Army demand. DOWN: Space revenue -2.6% (LTM -5.2%), a segment EBITDA loss, a 0.37 Space book-to-bill, revenue per share -23.0% after 29.9% dilution, Adjusted EBITDA still negative, guide unmoved since February.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

ACM Research (ACMR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $292.9M vs a $269.3M bar - a beat, up 36.0% y/y. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.61 vs a $0.4186 bar - a 46% beat. GAAP diluted EPS $1.23 vs $0.44. The 8-K was accepted 7:37am ET Fri Aug 7, BEFORE the open, so Friday IS the reaction: the stock opened $91.14 (+15.4%) and CLOSED $83.80, up 6.10%, giving back more than half the pop.

ACM Research beat by 46% and raised its full-year guidance, and its non-GAAP OPERATING margin was 19.2% against 19.3% a year ago - flat, on revenue up 36%. Non-GAAP pre-tax profit rose $27.5M, and $19.3M of that (70%) came from one line: income from equity method investments, which the 10-Q attributes mainly to a gain on disposal of securities held by an investee.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE BEAT WAS REAL, AND ALMOST NONE OF IT WAS OPERATING) — base-case value ~$58.0 vs ~$83.8 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $58 vs the $83.80 close on Fri Aug 7 (-30.8%). Operations-only model: the FY2026 guide midpoint of $1,150M at the 18.7% non-GAAP operating margin ACM delivered in H1 = $215M, plus $20M net interest, less $22M currency/other, less 19% tax, less 25% to minority interests = $130M core attributable earnings, or $1.81/share. 26x plus $11.90 of LOOK-THROUGH net cash = $58.96. Bull $78.80, bear $44.66. A 2028-exit cross-check lands at $57.

- THE PRINT: revenue $292.9M beat $269.3M, up 36.0% y/y. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.61 beat $0.4186, up 10.9% from $0.55. GAAP diluted EPS $1.23 vs $0.44. EPS BASIS PROVEN: FY2025 quarters 0.46+0.54+0.36+0.25 = $1.61, exactly the printed FY2025 non-GAAP diluted figure. Gross margin 46.0% vs 48.5%, down 255bps. Non-GAAP operating margin 19.2% vs 19.3% - FLAT. GAAP operating margin only 'expanded' because stock comp fell from $9.77M to $6.58M.

- THE ANGLE: non-GAAP pre-tax income $72.7M vs $45.2M, up $27.5M. Income from equity method investments was $21.1M vs $1.77M, up 1,090% - 70% of the entire increase - and the 10-Q says it was mainly a gain on disposal of available-for-sale securities held by an investee. The beat was worth $13.7M ($0.1914 x 71.84M shares); the swing in that one line was $19.3M, bigger than the whole beat. ACM excludes a $69.6M gain on its OWN portfolio but keeps this one.

- OWNERSHIP + CASH: ACM Research owns just 73.2% of ACM Shanghai (SSE STAR 688082), down from 74.6% at Dec 31, while its own shares rose 6.1% to 69,643,173 - a 7.6% fall in look-through claim in six months. An approved Hong Kong H-share listing of up to 7% would take it to about 68%. H1 operating cash flow was NEGATIVE $35.9M and FCF NEGATIVE $123.7M; $332.6M of financing inflow built the cash pile. Inventory $783.1M, about 506 days. Street: Buy, $110 target.

What to watch: UP: revenue grew 36.0% and beat, with electroplating/furnace revenue up 167.7% and advanced packaging up 153.3% as the 2,000th ECP chamber shipped; the FY2026 range rose to $1,125-1,175M, still 25-30% growth off a verified $901.3M base; $1.0B of consolidated net cash; Oregon operations begin in H2 2026. DOWN: gross margin fell 255bps to 46.0%; H1 operating cash flow was NEGATIVE $35.9M for a second straight year; H1 non-GAAP EPS fell 5.0%.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Dropbox (DBX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $631.5M vs a $626.7M bar - a beat, up 0.9% y/y. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.75 vs a $0.739 bar - a beat. GAAP diluted EPS $0.42, DOWN from $0.45. The 8-K was accepted 4:08pm ET Thu Aug 6, AFTER the close, so FRIDAY Aug 7 is the reaction: DBX closed $34.81, UP 0.78% from $34.54.

Dropbox beat on revenue and on earnings, and its free cash flow FELL 9% - from $258.5M to $235.2M. The number management led with was unlevered free cash flow PER SHARE: $1.25, up 25%. Two adjustments separate those: one adds back $48.3M of cash interest, the other divides by a share count 18% smaller - bought with the very borrowing whose cost the first removed.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE SHARE COUNT IS DOING THE WORK, AND IT IS BORROWED) — base-case value ~$22.75 vs ~$34.81 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $22.75 vs the $34.81 close on Fri Aug 7 (-34.6%). Owner-earnings model: the 2026 unlevered FCF guide of $1,070M, less $180M of after-tax cash interest, less $155M of finance-lease principal, less $310M of stock compensation = $425M of owner earnings. Grown 1.5% for five years, 0% terminal, 9.5% cost of equity = $21.11. Bull $28.80, bear $17.93. EV cross-check: $605M of unlevered owner earnings at an 8.5% WACC less $2.47B net debt = $22.66.

- THE PRINT: revenue $631.5M beat $626.7M, up 0.9% y/y; ex-FormSwift +1.7%; constant-currency ex-FormSwift +0.1%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.75 beat $0.739. GAAP diluted EPS $0.42 vs $0.45. EPS BASIS PROVEN: Q1 $0.76 plus Q2 $0.75 = $1.51, exactly the printed H1 non-GAAP figure. GAAP operating income $164.8M vs $168.4M, down only $3.6M - but interest expense, net, was $50.0M vs $18.6M, up 169%. GAAP net income $95.8M vs $125.6M, down 23.7%.

- THE ANGLE: free cash flow $235.2M vs $258.5M, DOWN 9.0%. Add back cash interest net of tax ($48.3M vs $17.9M) and unlevered FCF is $283.5M, UP 2.6%. Divide by a diluted share count 18.0% smaller (226.8M vs 276.7M) and unlevered FCF per share is $1.25, UP 25%. Counting both steps honestly, FCF per share went $0.93 to $1.04, up 11%. Capex is only $3.3M because the servers are FINANCE-LEASED: $35.3M of principal sits in financing, not investing.

- BUYBACK DECOMPOSITION + BALANCE SHEET: hold the share count at last year's 276.7M and non-GAAP EPS is $170.0M/276.7M = $0.61, DOWN 13.5%, not the reported +5.6%. On GAAP, $0.35 vs $0.45, down 23.1%. Buybacks were $1,538M over four quarters vs about $305M of annual stock comp, so the retirements are real. Cash and investments $1,113.8M; borrowings $3,300.2M; finance leases $285.9M; stockholders' DEFICIT $2,188.3M. EV about $10.33B. Street: BUY label, $26.50 target, per FMP.

What to watch: UP: 96,000 net new paying users, a third straight quarter of growth, with Teams licence growth turning positive; non-GAAP operating margin 39.7% beat guidance and the full-year guide rose to 40.0-40.5%; unlevered FCF guided to at least $1.070B; no AI revenue in the guide. DOWN: free cash flow -9.0%, GAAP EPS fell despite retiring 49.9M shares, interest expense +169% to $50.0M, and constant-currency revenue ex-FormSwift grew 0.1%.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $5.138M vs a $5.087M bar - a beat, UP 185% y/y. Gross margin 42.6% vs 31.4%. But non-GAAP diluted loss per share was $0.05 against a $0.046 bar - a MISS. GAAP diluted loss per share $0.16. The 8-K was accepted 4:05pm ET Thu Aug 6, AFTER the close, so FRIDAY Aug 7 is the reaction: RGTI closed $17.94, UP 8.5% from $16.53.

Rigetti missed on earnings and the stock rose 8.5%. The reason is in Note 11 of the 10-Q, page 23: sales to government entities were 91.7% of revenue in Q2 2025 and 18.0% in Q2 2026. Eighty-two percent of this quarter came from non-government customers, at a 42.6% gross margin after two quarters of NEGATIVE gross profit. The same footnote takes most of it back: Customer A was 64% of the quarter.

THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, THE COMPANY IMPROVED. THE PRICE DID NOT) — base-case value ~$4.25 vs ~$17.94 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 4/5, fair value $4.25 vs the $17.94 close on Fri Aug 7 (-76.3%). Scenario model, 10% over 10 years: wins the platform 18% = $16.68, real but subscale 27% = $1.45, research shop 33% = $0.36, wound down 22% = $0.37. Weighted $3.59 plus $0.66 optionality. Bull $22, net-cash floor $1.62. Street: BUY, 6 buy / 1 hold, target $26.25 ($18-$40), per FMP.

- THE PRINT + THE BRIDGE: revenue $5.138M (+185%) beat $5.087M; non-GAAP LPS $0.05 MISSED $0.046; GAAP LPS $0.16, net loss $52.6M. R&D $20.728M, SG&A $9.522M, operating loss $28.062M (+41%). GAAP $52.606M less the $29.602M warrant mark less $7.020M of Q2 stock comp = $15.984M - the printed $16.0M non-GAAP loss. It reconciles to the dollar.

- THE ANGLE (10-Q Note 11, p.23): government revenue 18.0% of sales vs 91.7% a year ago. But Customer A was 64% of the quarter and Customer C 16%. The Street models Q3 revenue at $3.679M, 28% BELOW this print. THE FACTORY: Q2 capex $11.993M = 2.3x revenue, plus $10.118M of equipment still UNPAID inside accounts payable; payables went $3.488M to $14.001M.

- BALANCE SHEET + THE CLOCK: $541.3M of cash and investments, NO DEBT, 333.8M shares, EV $5.45B on $13.4M trailing revenue = 408x sales. 8,436,597 warrants at $11.50 expire 2 March 2027; the $78.407M liability is 71% of all liabilities and was moved to CURRENT. Redemption needs an $18.00 close - Friday was $17.94. That is $97.0M. H1 ATM: $0; 2025 ATM averaged $11.44.

- THE REVERSE TEST: at 10% over 10 years on ~520M shares, $17.94 needs ~$24B of 2036 equity value - at 30x earnings and a 25% margin that is $3.2B of revenue, 242x trailing, a 73% CAGR for a decade. Our BULL case at 100% certainty is $16.68 - BELOW the price. Revenue fell four straight years to 2025. 99.1% two-qubit fidelity at 108 qubits.

What to watch: UP: government revenue fell from 91.7% of sales to 18.0% while revenue rose 185%. Gross margin 31.4% to 42.6%. $541.3M of cash, NO DEBT, ~5 years of runway, and ZERO ATM shares sold in H1. DOWN: 408x sales, one customer at 64% of the quarter, the Street's own Q3 estimate 28% lower, and capex at 2.3x revenue.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

The Clorox Company (CLX) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $1.948B vs a $1.915B Street bar - a beat - but DOWN 2% y/y with organic sales -13%. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.66 vs a $1.64 bar - also a beat - but DOWN 42% from $2.87. GAAP diluted EPS $1.34, down 50% from $2.68. Gross margin 41.3% vs 46.5%, -520bp. The results 8-K was accepted 4:12pm ET Monday Aug 3, AFTER the close, so TUESDAY Aug 4 is the reaction: CLX closed $104.67, UP 6.52% from Monday's $98.26, on 5.29M shares. Friday Aug 7 closed $105.15.

Clorox guided FY2027 adjusted EPS to $5.70-$6.00, up 3% to 8%, and the stock rose 6.52%. But in the same release Clorox states that the pre-ERP retailer buy-in added about 90 cents to FY2025 EPS, that the FY2026 inventory drawdown reduced FY2026 EPS by about 90 cents, and that FY2027 laps it - the reconciliation table prints the FY2027 ERP impact as nil. Strip the 90 cents out of both years: FY2025 adjusted EPS was $7.72, so clean $6.82. FY2026 was $5.53, so clean $6.43. Against a FY2027 midpoint of $5.85 that is not 3% to 8% growth - it is a 6.7% to 11.4% DECLINE. And FY2027 carries three extra quarters of the $2.15B GOJO/Purell acquisition while it does it.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE BEAT WAS REAL. THE GROWTH IS A LAP) — base-case value ~$101.0 vs ~$105.15 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $101 vs the $105.15 Aug 7 close (-3.9%). DCF $100, multiple test $102, bear $80, bull $120, buy under $92. Street: HOLD, 3 buy / 20 hold / 6 sell, 30-day target average $96.57.

- THE PRINT: net sales $1.948B (-2%, organic -13%) vs a $1.915B bar; adjusted EPS $1.66 vs $1.64, down 42% from $2.87; GAAP EPS $1.34, down 50%; gross margin 41.3% vs 46.5%; adjusted EBIT $318M vs $460M.

- THE ANGLE: Clorox sizes the ERP swing at +$0.90 in FY25 and -$0.90 in FY26, and nil in FY27. Clean FY25 $6.82, clean FY26 $6.43, FY27 guide $5.70-$6.00. Guided +3% to +8% is really -6.7% to -11.4%.

What to watch: UP: a real beat on both lines - revenue $1.948B vs $1.915B and adjusted EPS $1.66 vs $1.64. A 4.8% dividend yield, $5.00 annualised, raised in every year of a 22-year record. Adjusted free cash flow $881M, up from $761M and 13.1% of sales. The five-year, $580M digital/ERP programme completed in FQ3 and costs nothing in FY2027. Health and hygiene is above half of net sales for the first time after the Purell deal. DOWN: clean FY2026 adjusted EPS was $6.43 against an FY2027 guide of $5.70-$6.00. Net debt doubled to $4.93B - 3.9x EBITDA - against $90M of total Clorox stockholders' equity. The 10-K's own pro-forma table puts FY2026 net earnings at $625M against FY2025's $715M with GOJO owned in BOTH years. GOJO's first quarter inside Clorox added $211M of sales and $6M of net earnings. FY2027 gross margin is guided to about 42%, BELOW this year's adjusted 42.8%. And the July dividend raise was $1.24 to $1.25 - 0.8%, the smallest in the 22-year record.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (13 weeks ended July 5, 2026): record revenue $291.263M, +16.9% y/y, the midpoint of the company's own $280-300M guide and 0.3% under a $292.1M Street bar - in line, not a miss. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.45 vs a $0.4238 bar and ABOVE its own $0.40-0.44 guide; GAAP EPS $0.43. Adjusted EBITDA margin 32.2% vs a 28-31% guide. GAAP operating margin 29.4% vs 17.4%, +1,200bp, an 8th straight quarter of expansion. The results 8-K hit 4:32pm ET Tuesday Aug 5, AFTER the close, so Wednesday IS the reaction: CGNX opened $72.15, touched $72.35 and closed $67.38, DOWN 4.71% from Tuesday's $70.71. Thursday closed $66.89.

Cognex issued its first full-year guide in years. Subtract the $559.7M first half and the $300-320M Q3 guide from the $1,130-1,150M full year and the implied fourth quarter is $270.3M - identical at BOTH ends, because both ranges are $20M wide. Against Q4 2025's $252.3M that is +7.1%, versus +16.9% this quarter, and the market sold it. But Cognex's fiscal year always ends December 31 while its quarters are 13-week blocks, so Q4 is the plug. Straight off the SEC period tags: Q1 2025 ran 89 days and Q1 2026 ran 95; Q2 and Q3 ran 91 days in both years; Q4 2025 ran 94 days and Q4 2026 runs 88. Six days moved out of Q4 and into Q1. Per SELLING DAY the year grew +16.4%, +16.9%, +12.0% and an implied +14.4%. The cliff everybody reacted to is six days of calendar.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE QUARTER WAS EXCELLENT, THE PRICE ALREADY KNEW) — base-case value ~$54.0 vs ~$66.89 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $54 vs the $66.89 Aug 7 close (-19%). DCF $46, exit-multiple $56, bull $62, buy under $55. Street: BUY, 1 strong buy / 14 buy / 14 hold / 2 sell, post-print targets avg $84.33.

- THE PRINT: revenue $291.3M (+16.9%), the midpoint of its own guide; adjusted EPS $0.45 vs a $0.4238 bar and above its own $0.40-0.44 guide; adjusted EBITDA margin 32.2%; GAAP operating margin 29.4% vs 17.4%.

- THE ANGLE: the new FY guide back-solves to a Q4 of $270.3M, +7.1%. That quarter runs 88 selling days against 94. Per selling day it grows 14.4%, and the 2026 quarters run +16.4%, +16.9%, +12.0%, +14.4%.

What to watch: UP: 8 consecutive quarters of margin expansion, adjusted operating margin back to 30.7%, and adjusted EPS above the high end of its own guide twice running. Gross margin 70.6% GAAP / 71.5% adjusted, up 350bp, with tariff refunds explicitly NOT a material contributor. Greater China +47% (+42% cc) on consumer electronics and semiconductor. Zero debt against $755M of cash and investments - about $4.44 a share. Two AI vision platforms launched this year with NVIDIA and with Qualcomm, plus OneVision at general availability. A fresh $500M buyback authorised February 11, 2026. DOWN: 40.3x the company's own guided FY26 adjusted EPS of $1.66 and 31.0x guided EBITDA on a 2.7% cash yield; R&D down 2% in dollars; DSO out 13 days to 67.6; $105.2M of first-half buyback still left the share count higher; management averaged $42.08 and stopped buying at $49.49. DATES: Q3 2026 results expected late October 2026, against a $300-320M guide.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $2,805M vs a $2,740M bar, but DOWN 9.3% year on year; loss per share excluding special items $(0.07) vs a $(0.134) estimate, a 6.4-cent beat on the same basis (Q1 $(0.47) + Q2 $(0.07) = the printed YTD $(0.54), so the basis ties). Adjusted EBITDA ex-specials $802M, DOWN 8.6%. Full-year 2026 guidance REITERATED. The results 8-K hit 4:16pm ET Tuesday Aug 4, AFTER the close, so Wednesday IS the reaction: LUMN closed $6.08, DOWN 9.39% from Tuesday's $6.71. Friday closed $6.24.

In the quarter Lumen COLLECTED $476M of cash from its Private Connectivity Fabric customers and RECOGNISED $91M of PCF revenue - 5.2 to 1. The gap sits on the balance sheet as deferred revenue, now $9,177M, or 1.43x the entire market value. And that is the free cash flow. Take Lumen's own 2026 midpoints: EBITDA $3.2B less capex $3.3B less net cash interest $0.7B = MINUS $0.8B. The company's own footnotes then add a $400M tax refund and $729M of AT&T divestiture proceeds booked inside operating cash flow - 56% of the guide, one-time. The guide is $2.0B. The remaining ~$1.7B is the deferred revenue build, which was $1,772M in the first half alone.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE FIBRE IS REAL, THE FREE CASH FLOW IS A CUSTOMER DEPOSIT) — base-case value ~$5.5 vs ~$6.24 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $5.50 vs the $6.24 Aug 7 close (-12%). Bull $12.51, bear $1.45, buy under $4.20. Street: HOLD, 4 buy / 17 hold / 7 sell, target $8.00.

- THE PRINT: revenue $2,805M (-9.3%) vs a $2,740M bar; EPS ex-specials $(0.07) vs $(0.134); adjusted EBITDA $802M, -8.6%; 2026 guide REITERATED at $3.1-3.3B EBITDA and $1.9-2.1B FCF.

- THE ANGLE: $476M of PCF cash collected vs $91M recognised; deferred revenue $9,177M = 1.43x market cap; EBITDA less capex less interest = -$0.8B against a +$2.0B guide.

What to watch: UP: the $13B signed PCF pipeline keeps converting - $476M of cash landed in Q2 alone, net debt fell from $16.44B to $11.33B in six months, quarterly interest expense is down 41% to $201M and nothing above $675M matures before 2031. Strategic revenue +14.1% is now 53% of business revenue and total business revenue was FLAT sequentially for the first time; at current sequential rates it inflects to growth in about four quarters. A $1B run-rate cost programme exits 2027, and on 1,031M shares every $100M of EBITDA is worth about $0.55 a share. DOWN: adjusted EBITDA fell 8.6%; book value is NEGATIVE $1.49B; the covenant caps total net leverage at 5.25x from this quarter. DATES: Q3 2026 results expected late October 2026.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.