Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): adjusted EPS $0.88 vs $0.82, up 7.3%, against a $0.811 bar - an 8.5% beat on the same adjusted basis Evergy guides on. GAAP EPS was HIGHER at $0.91, up 23.0%, because a $7.9M venture gain was excluded. Revenues $1,500.1M vs a $1,363.3M bar. 2026 guidance REAFFIRMED at $4.14-4.34. The 8-K hit 7:00am ET Thursday Aug 6, BEFORE the open, so Thursday IS the reaction: EVRG opened $84.75 (up 2.03%, the day HIGH), fell to $82.41 and closed $83.02 - DOWN 0.05% and 2.04% below its own open. Friday closed $83.38.

Evergy raised its 2026-2030 capital plan by about $1 billion to $21.6 billion and lifted rate-base growth to roughly 12% a year through 2030. In the same release it REAFFIRMED its long-term adjusted EPS growth target at 6% to 8%+. Twelve percent of assets, six to eight percent of earnings - and the filing gives all four reasons. One: the settlement in Evergy Kansas Central's 2025 Kansas rate case requires refunding customers 50% of annual earnings above a 9.7% return on equity, at the largest of the three utilities. Two: they are not reaching 9.7% anyway - Kansas Central reported no refund obligation for 2025 and expects none for 2026, and group trailing ROE is 9.2%. Three: regulatory lag - Evergy Metro asked Missouri for $140M at a 10.5% ROE in FEBRUARY, and new rates are not expected until JANUARY 2027. Four: dilution and interest - diluted shares went 232.7M to 236.5M, 5.2M shares sit in unsettled ATM forwards at an average $79.36, and in July Kansas Central refinanced 2.55% bonds with 5.30% bonds. The load itself is real: $8.9 BILLION of contracted minimum revenue, 15-year average term, 80% take-or-pay floor, and 2,600 MW of data-centre agreements signed in 2026.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, THE BEST-CONTRACTED DATA-CENTRE LOAD BOOK IN THE REGULATED SPACE, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR IT) — base-case value ~$77.0 vs ~$83.38 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $77 vs the $83.38 Aug 7 close (-8%). Bull $99, bear $71, buy under $66. Street: HOLD, 7 buy / 9 hold / 2 sell, average target $89.67.

- THE PRINT: adjusted EPS $0.88 +7.3% vs a $0.811 bar; GAAP $0.91 +23% on a venture gain. Revenue $1,500.1M. 2026 guide REAFFIRMED at $4.14-4.34.

- THE GAP: rate base compounds 12% to 2030 on a $21.6B plan, EPS 6-8%. Kansas refunds 50% above a 9.7% ROE; trailing ROE 9.2%; price to book 1.88x.

What to watch: UP: the Missouri rate case - hearing OCTOBER 2026, new rates expected JANUARY 2027, $140M requested at a 10.5% ROE; if it lands near the ask, group ROE moves toward the allowed level and our $60 residual-income frame inverts to about $73. The day Kansas Central finally OWES a Kansas earnings refund is the day the biggest utility is finally earning its allowed return. Management says at least one more electric service agreement is coming in 2026. DOWN: leaning harder on the $1.2B ATM (about $800M still open) makes the 6-8% EPS target harder; net debt is 5.8x EBITDA and 61.6% of capital against a 67.5% covenant; first-half operating cash FELL 8.1% while capex rose 48.5%. DATES: Q3 2026 results on November 5, 2026.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

JFrog Ltd. (FROG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $163.8M vs $127.2M, up 28.7% and ACCELERATING from 25.8% last quarter, against a $155.6M bar - a 5.2% beat. Cloud revenue $87.5M, up 53%, now 53% of the mix vs 45%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.27 against a $0.2405 bar, a 12.3% beat; GAAP was a LOSS of $0.03. The 8-K was accepted 4:10pm ET Thursday Aug 6, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction: FROG OPENED at $96.26, up 15.9%, and that opening print was the HIGH of the day. It traded down to $84.79 and closed $89.52, up 7.80% on the session but 7.0% BELOW its own open.

When a company beats and raises, the question is not whether it raised - it is whether it raised by MORE than it beat. JFrog beat its own Q2 revenue guidance by $8.77M and raised the full year by $20.0M, from $630M to $650M. That is 2.28x the beat, meaning $11.2M of genuinely NEW second-half revenue. Run the identical sum on last quarter and it is 0.64x: in May they beat by $6.98M, raised the year by only $4.5M, and quietly took $2.5M OUT of the back half. Three months later they put $11.2M back in. And the balance sheet corroborates it: remaining performance obligations went $565.7M in December to $574.9M in March to $659.0M in June - $9.2M added in Q1 and $84.1M in Q2, up 38% year on year against revenue up 28.7%. The backlog is growing faster than the revenue. But in the same release, Q3 operating profit is guided to $28M against the $32.6M just delivered - a $4.6M sequential DECLINE on more revenue, margin 19.9% to 17.0%. Across the year they raised revenue $20M and operating income $4M. They are not banking the acceleration. They are spending it.

THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A GENUINELY ACCELERATING BUSINESS AT A PRICE THAT NEEDS 31% COMPOUND GROWTH FOR FIVE YEARS AND BEST-IN-CLASS MARGINS) — base-case value ~$51.0 vs ~$89.52 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 4/5, fair value $51 vs the $89.52 Aug 7 close (-43%). Bull $106, bear $23, buy under $43. Street: 19 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell, average target $113 from 11 targets all raised Aug 7.

- THE PRINT: revenue $163.8M +28.7% (bar $155.6M), cloud $87.5M +53% and 53% of mix, RPO $659.0M +38%, NDR 121% vs 118%, customers over $1M ARR 97 vs 61.

- WHAT AN OWNER KEEPS: FY26E free cash flow ~$200M less ~$166M of stock comp = $34M of owner earnings on a $10.2B EV. EV/revenue 15.7x. 2026 is the FIRST year FCF exceeds SBC.

What to watch: UP: stock-based compensation staying flat in absolute dollars - it grew just 4.1% year on year while revenue grew 28.7%, and if that holds for four more quarters our $106 bull case becomes the base case; remaining performance obligations adding another ~$80M in Q3; net dollar retention pushing past 121%; AI/MLOps attach turning into disclosed revenue. DOWN: SBC re-accelerating with headcount; the Q3 non-GAAP operating margin coming in at 17% for cost reasons rather than by choice; cloud growth dropping below 40%; the guide-beat cadence breaking below its 5.79% average. DATES: the Q3 2026 print on November 4, 2026, where the Street models $165.3M and $0.23 - and where this company's own history says $174M is the number to beat.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

U-Haul Holding Company (UHAL) Q1 FY2027 — Fiscal Q1 2027 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,682.0M vs $1,630.5M, up 3.2%, against a $1,681.5M bar - in line. Net earnings available to common $122.9M vs $142.3M, down 13.6%. U-Haul reports TWO GAAP EPS figures under the two-class method: $0.58 on the Voting stock (UHAL) and $0.63 on the Series N Non-Voting stock (UHAL.B), against a $0.663 consensus that does not state its class. The 10-Q was accepted 4:02pm ET Wed Aug 5 and the 8-K at 4:07pm, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction: UHAL.B opened -4.5% at $61.98, traded to $61.72, and closed GREEN at $65.35. Friday it closed $66.02 - a 12-month closing high.

Buried in U-Haul's own release is a table almost nobody reads. Over the twelve months to June 30, the owned self-storage portfolio grew from 69,560 thousand square feet to 74,742 thousand - 5.2 million square feet added. Average monthly square footage OCCUPIED went from 55,399 thousand to 55,937 - up 538 thousand. They built 5.2 million square feet and filled half a million of it. Average monthly units occupied actually FELL, 628,000 against 632,000, the first year-on-year decline; owned-portfolio occupancy is 72.9% against 78.1%. Chairman Joe Shoen said it himself: 'we are still completing new storage units faster than we are filling them.' And the bill has arrived - self-storage revenue grew $15.9M in the quarter while interest expense grew $15.6M. We tested the usual defence, that fleet accounting made it look worse than it is, and it FAILED: depreciation net of gains on disposals was $298.8M against $304.0M, $5.2M LOWER. Fleet accounting was a tailwind. The decline is real.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, AN IRREPLACEABLE BRAND BUILDING SELF-STORAGE FASTER THAN AMERICA WILL RENT IT, AT A MULTIPLE THAT HAS EXPANDED 20% WHILE EBITDA FELL) — base-case value ~$49.0 vs ~$66.02 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $49 vs the $66.02 Aug 7 close on UHAL.B (-26%). Bull $64, bear $32, buy under $42. Street: 2 Buy ratings, ONE target ever - Vertical Research $80, dated 3 Nov 2025.

- STORAGE: +5.2M sq ft added, +0.5M filled. Occupied units 628k vs 632k. Occupancy 72.9% vs 78.1%. Revenue $250.2M, +6.8%. 12M sq ft in development.

- THE BILL: storage revenue +$15.9M, interest expense +$15.6M. Net debt/EBITDA 4.0x to 4.4x. EV/EBITDA 12.4x vs 10.3x a year ago on EBITDA down 0.8%.

What to watch: UP: occupied UNITS in the owned portfolio turning positive again while capacity keeps growing; the 12 million net rentable square feet in development leasing up at current rates (same-store revenue per foot is already +7.6%); real-estate capex falling from the $194.3M-a-quarter run rate; the $350M buyback, $101M of which is already spent. DOWN: occupancy sliding below 72%; net debt/adjusted EBITDA past 4.4x on flat EBITDA; operating expenses continuing to grow at 7%+ on 3% revenue. DATES: the 20th annual analyst and investor meeting on August 20, 2026; the fiscal Q2 print on November 4, 2026.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Warner Music Group (WMG) Q3 FY2026 — Fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,864M vs $1,689M, up 10.4% (+9.3% constant currency, +12.1% excluding a prior-year copyright settlement and the BMG termination). Adjusted OIBDA $433M, up 16.1%, margin 23.2% vs 22.1%. Adjusted EPS $0.51 vs $0.42, up 21%, against a Street bar of $0.39 - a 31% beat. GAAP EPS was also $0.39, up from -$0.03, but that swing is mostly currency. Operating cash flow +209% to $142M. The sequence is the story: the CFO 8-K was accepted at 5:00pm ET Fri Jul 31, the whole quarter was PRE-RELEASED at 8:35am ET Mon Aug 3, and the formal 8-K came 4:03pm ET Wed Aug 5. Monday is the reaction: open $27.27, high $27.75, close $25.10 - down 3.31% on the day and 7.96% from its own open. Closed Fri Aug 7 at $26.39, 24% below the May closing high.

On Friday July 31 at 5:00pm ET, after the close, Warner Music filed an 8-K: Armin Zerza had stepped down as CFO AND COO, for personal reasons, effective immediately, fourteen months into the job and ten weeks after being handed the COO title. No successor. The global controller took the chair. On Monday morning at 8:35am, before the open, Warner pre-released its entire quarter - unaudited, with a paragraph stating that KPMG had not performed any procedures on it - and moved the earnings date forward a day. The numbers were good: revenue +10%, Adjusted OIBDA +16%, adjusted EPS +21%, operating cash flow +209%. The stock opened at $27.27, five percent up. It closed at $25.10. The market bought the numbers for about an hour and then sold the finance function.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GOOD BUSINESS WHOSE TWO BEST MARGIN LEVERS ARE NOW LARGELY IN THE BASE, RUN BY AN ACTING CFO, AT THE CHEAPEST MULTIPLE SINCE IT LISTED) — base-case value ~$30.0 vs ~$26.39 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $30.00 vs the $26.39 Aug 7 close (+13.7%). Bull $38, bear $18, buy under $25.50. Street: Buy, avg target $39.25 - but all three published targets are dated 8 May 2026.

- Revenue $1,864M +10.4%; Adjusted OIBDA $433M +16.1%, margin 23.2% vs 22.1%; adjusted EPS $0.51 vs a $0.39 bar, a 31% beat.

- The 12% subscription growth = 6-7% subscribers + 3.5% price + 1% share. Price floors now cover 88% of subscription revenue, from zero.

What to watch: UP: a named, external, credible CFO hire removes the discount the market applied on August 3; AI licensing revenue from Suno, Udio, Stability AI and KLAY, which the CEO said will contribute materially to subscription streaming growth starting in fiscal 2027, with Suno transitioning to a licensed model this calendar year; the incremental $100M of restructuring savings ($200M this year to $300M annualised in 2027); and roughly $1.0B of undeployed capacity in the Bain Capital catalog joint venture at a stated ~20% return. DOWN: the per-subscriber-minimum price reset that contributed 3.5 points of the 12% subscription growth now covers 88% of subscription revenue against zero two years ago, so it cannot be repeated; underlying subscriber growth is only 6-7%; ad-supported's 10% was flattered by World Cup advertising and is guided down to mid-single digits in Q4; and nine-month free cash flow of $633M was fully consumed by $505M of catalog acquisitions and $300M of dividends, with the gap funded by $370M drawn on the Beethoven JV and $135M of Bain's capital.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $989.7M, +20%, vs $932M expected. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.20 vs a $0.945 bar - a 27% BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $0.23, and both bases reconcile ($0.54 + $0.23 = the $0.77 GAAP half; $0.76 + $1.20 = the $1.96 non-GAAP half). Non-GAAP income FELL 16% and GAAP net income fell from $241M to $45M. Guidance raised. The 8-K was accepted at 4:06pm ET on Thursday Aug 6, AFTER the close, so Friday Aug 7 IS the reaction session: $61.46 to $63.81, +3.82%.

BioMarin grew revenue 20% and beat the earnings bar by 27% - and then filed a press release in which the revenue of the two drugs it had just paid $5.32 billion for was printed, fourteen separate times, as the spreadsheet error N/A. The 10-Q, filed eight minutes later, has the numbers the release does not. GALAFOLD contributed $105.7M of revenue growth and POMBILITI plus OPFOLDA $30.3M - $136.0M of the quarter's $164.3M of growth, 83% of it, from a business BioMarin did not own on April 1. Strip Amicus out and the company that existed in March grew 3.4%, not 20%. And management's own full-year EPS guidance of $4.90-$5.10 is five cents below the $4.95-$5.15 standalone plan it published in February - after spending $5.32 billion.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $74 vs THE $63.81 CLOSE - 16% OF UPSIDE, AND 17% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$74.0 vs ~$63.81 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $74 vs the $63.81 Aug 7 close = +16%. Owner earnings about $800M, $4.05 a share, so you pay 15.7x, not 12.8x. Honest bear $35, honest bull $135. Buy under $62.90.

- Street: Buy (29 buy, 12 hold, 0 sell). Average target $89.33, median $97, high $124, low $50, all dated Aug 7. We are 17% below consensus.

What to watch: UP: the 27% beat is real and like-for-like, and we proved the basis on both GAAP and non-GAAP first. Management's own pro forma table puts Amicus in BOTH years - $1,038.9M against $980.1M - so the combined company grew 6.0%, and Amicus alone grew 19.7% ($185.2M vs $154.7M). That is the falsification we ran against our own thesis and lost: BioMarin bought real growth. $220M of named synergies by 2028 would make our 9% growth assumption too low, VOXZOGO is guided to at least $1B, and the achondroplasia decision date is Feb 28, 2027. DOWN: 83% of the growth arrived by wire transfer on April 27, and the legacy business grew 3.4%. Debt went from $600M to $4.25B. Non-GAAP adds back $393M a year of acquired-intangible amortisation - which IS the purchase price - plus $76M of quarterly stock comp, 7.7% of revenue. Operating margin fell 39.9% to 36.4%, royalty revenue fell 57%, and guidance is a nickel below February's standalone plan.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

News Corporation (NWSA) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026, and the full fiscal year): Q4 revenue $2,337M +11% (Adjusted Revenues +7%; $71M of currency). Q4 Total Segment EBITDA $423M +31%. Adjusted EPS $0.35 vs a $0.21 bar - a 67% BEAT. FY2026 revenue $9,028M +7%, net income from continuing operations $743M +15%, Total Segment EBITDA $1,627M +15%, free cash flow $811M +42%, buyback $643M. The 8-K was accepted 4:17pm ET, AFTER the close, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction session: $29.06 to $29.67, +2.10%, after trading as high as $30.88. Friday Aug 7 gave it back to $28.52, -3.88%.

News Corp beat the adjusted EPS bar by 67%, posted a record year on continuing operations, and grew free cash flow 42% to $811M - and two sessions later the stock was lower than before the print. Here is the arithmetic nobody ran. Adjusted Total Segment EBITDA grew $169M for the year. $115M of that - 68% of everything - came from Digital Real Estate Services, which is mostly REA Group, an Australian property portal News Corp owns 62.0% of. Strip that segment out and adjusted segment profit grew 6.5%, not 12%. Book Publishing and News Media went BACKWARDS by $34M between them. And $170M of the year's continuing-operations profit is attributable to minority holders, so only 39 cents of every segment-EBITDA dollar reaches a News Corp shareholder.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $29.00 vs THE $28.52 CLOSE - ONLY 1.7% OF UPSIDE, AND BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$29.0 vs ~$28.52 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $29.00 vs the $28.52 Aug 7 close = +1.7%. Cash-flow model $24.61, multiples model $32.45, buy under $24.65. The 62% REA stake alone is $9.94B of a $16.14B market cap.

- Street: Buy (22 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell). Consensus target $32.20 (high $35, low $29.40). Morgan Stanley to $35 from $34 on Aug 6. We are 10% below consensus.

What to watch: UP: the beat is real on a like-for-like basis - the $0.35 print and the $0.21 bar are both adjusted, and the four adjusted quarters sum to the reported $1.18 full year. Dow Jones segment EBITDA grew 13% to $663M with Risk & Compliance +16% to $392M and Dow Jones Energy +8% to $301M, and 84% of Dow Jones revenue is now digital at a 28.1% Q4 margin. The balance sheet is net cash ($2,095M vs $1,989M of borrowings). The buyback tripled to $643M and cut the share count 4.3% - and we falsified the lazy 'it is all buyback' story: only ~$0.02 of the $0.29 of adjusted EPS growth came from the share count. On segment EBITDA the stub costs 6.9x, and Dow Jones alone at 12x would be worth more than all of it. DOWN: 68% of the year's growth came from a 62%-owned business. 4 of Q4's 11 points of revenue growth were currency, and for News Media the currency was ALL of it (adjusted revenue flat in Q4, -1% for the year, adjusted segment EBITDA -14%). The Sun's monthly unique users fell 87M to 65M and the NY Post network 90M to 77M. News Corp discloses no dollar figure at all for AI content licensing. And the stub only converts $386M of free cash flow against $6.09B of enterprise value.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Oscar Health (OSCR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): Total revenue $4,880.2M +70.4%. GAAP diluted EPS $1.10 vs a $0.40 bar - a 173% BEAT. Medical loss ratio 79.2% from 91.1%. Earnings from operations $388.6M vs a $230.5M LOSS. Effectuated membership 2,963,002, +46.2%. First half: operating earnings $1,092.7M, EPS $3.16. FY2026 operating earnings guidance RAISED to $500-700M from $250-450M; revenue guidance unchanged at $18.7-19.0B. The 8-K was accepted 6:08am ET, BEFORE the open, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction session: $30.11 to $26.54, -3.60%.

Oscar Health beat the bar by 173%, posted the most profitable half-year in its history, and RAISED full-year guidance - and the stock fell 3.6% that day. One subtraction explains it. First-half earnings from operations were $1,092.7M against raised full-year guidance of $500-700M, so the guide itself promises a second-half operating LOSS of $393M to $593M. Nobody normalised it. The first-half to second-half operating margin swing was 9.9 points in 2024 and 9.1 points in 2025, and the 2026 guide requires 15.7 to 17.9. The 10-Q names the cause - 250,000 to 300,000 members, 8% to 10% of the book, are expected to be RETROACTIVELY disenrolled under CMS program-integrity rules.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $22.15 vs THE $27.90 CLOSE - 20.6% BELOW THE PRICE, AND BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$22.15 vs ~$27.9 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $22.15 vs the $27.90 Aug 7 close = -20.6%. Bull $37.55, bear $6.20, buy under $18.80. 2027 base: $19.5B revenue at a 4.0% margin = $1.95 EPS at 11.5x. At $27.90 you pay for a 5.0% margin - management's own 2027 target.

- Street: Hold (3 buy, 6 hold, 2 sell). Consensus target $26.86, median $27. Barclays $39 on Aug 6, Baird $27 on Aug 7, Jefferies $16 on Apr 20. We are 18% below consensus.

What to watch: UP: membership grew 46% to 2,963,002 in the FIRST year after the enhanced Advance Premium Tax Credits expired - falsifying the 2026 subsidy-cliff bear case. The loss ratio before risk adjustment improved 10.4 points to 60.1% - a BIGGER gain than the 8-point reported MLR improvement, because Oscar's risk-adjustment payment rose from 15.6% to 19.8% of direct premium and masks it. Equity more than doubled to $2.06B and a $2.25B loss carryforward held the first-half tax rate to 3.8%. Management's own June 2024 Investor Day target is a 5% 2027 operating margin. DOWN: the raised guide requires a $393-593M second-half operating loss and a 17-point margin swing where nine is normal. 250,000 to 300,000 members are being RETROACTIVELY disenrolled by CMS. 91% of premium is federal subsidy money. $4.71B of first-half operating cash flow is 81% CMS float. And the Street's own 2027 estimates run from $0.05 to $2.58 a share.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

Lyft (LYFT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): Gross Bookings $5,504.2M +22.6% (bar ~$5.37B, a BEAT). Revenue $1,843.5M +16.1% (bar ~$1.81B, a BEAT). Adjusted EBITDA $177.2M +36.9%, 3.2% of Gross Bookings (a BEAT). GAAP diluted EPS $0.13 vs a $0.15 bar - a two-cent MISS, and Lyft publishes no adjusted EPS. Income from operations $2.4M to $47.6M. Free cash flow FELL 3.0% to $319.6M. Rides 262.4M +11.8%, Active Riders 30.5M +16.9%. The 8-K was accepted 4:10pm ET, AFTER the close, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction session: $16.30 to $17.46, +7.12%.

Lyft's income from operations went from $2.4M to $47.6M and adjusted EBITDA rose 36.9%. But cost of revenue FELL, $935.7M to $926.4M, while Rides rose 12% - and Lyft's own 10-Q names the cause: a cost-per-mile decrease from California's rideshare insurance reform bill SB 371, plus favorable changes in estimates on claims from prior years. Gross profit rose $264.7M and Lyft handed most of it back: rider incentives went $99.9M to $186.9M, +87%, so only 18c of every extra gross-profit dollar reached adjusted EBITDA. The tell is the cash: free cash flow FELL 3.0% while EBITDA rose 37%, because the insurance float filling it halved, $246.5M to $127.2M. And the two-cent EPS miss is entirely tax - $4.1M to $28.1M, 64% of it non-cash.

THE CALL: BUY (3/5, FAIR VALUE $22.90 vs THE $17.46 CLOSE - 31.2% ABOVE THE PRICE, AND ABOVE WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$22.9 vs ~$17.46 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: BUY 3/5, fair value $22.90 vs the $17.46 Aug 7 close = +31.2%. Bull $34.90, bear $10.80, buy under $19.50. EV $5.83B = 0.29x trailing Gross Bookings $20.3B; owner earnings $442M (FCF $1,112.3M less $360M float less $311M stock comp) = 13.2x.

- Street: ~55 analysts, consensus target ~$19.07 (+9%). UBS raised to $17 and BofA to $18 (Underperform) on Aug 7, 2026 - both below the price. We are ~20% above consensus.

What to watch: UP: Gross Bookings +22.6% and accelerating, Q3 guided to $5.50-5.67B (+15-19%) and adjusted EBITDA $183-203M. A record 30.5M Active Riders (+17%), the 7th straight double-digit quarter, and 262.4M Rides (+12%). SB 371 permanently cuts Lyft's largest cost line. Net cash ~$789M; 28.5M shares retired for $400M near $14, $850M still authorised, diluted count -8.7% YoY. EV ~$5.83B is 0.29x trailing Gross Bookings against $442M of owner earnings. DOWN: the operating inflection came from a statute and a prior-year claims release, not the marketplace. Only 18c of each extra gross-profit dollar survived an 87% rise in rider incentives. Free cash flow fell 3% and ~30% of trailing operating cash is insurance float that has halved. Rides per Active Rider fell 9.0 to 8.6. Capex more than doubled for the Waymo depot. And autonomy threatens the take rate itself.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video

Educational only. Not financial advice.

D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $3.076M vs a $4.027M bar (a 23.6% MISS) and essentially flat on $3.095M a year ago. GAAP net loss $48.028M, $(0.13) per share on 370,840,115 weighted shares, vs a Street bar near $(0.10) - a miss on either basis. Loss from operations $(53.278)M, up 101%. Total operating expenses $54.982M, up 93% (R&D +122%). Adjusted EBITDA loss $37.073M, up 85%. First-half bookings $35.5M, up 1,120%; RPO $40.7M, up 668%. The 8-K was accepted 7:02am ET, BEFORE the open, so Thursday Aug 6 was the reaction session: $21.39 to $19.41, down 9.26% on 23,702,538 shares. Friday Aug 7 closed $20.76.

D-Wave's first-half bookings rose 1,120% to $35.5M and contracted backlog (RPO) rose 668% to $40.7M. Both are real and both are verbatim from the 8-K. But D-Wave's own income statement has already run this experiment: first-half 2025 revenue was $18.1M because it included $13.7M from the company's FIRST sale of an annealing quantum system. First-half 2026 revenue was $5.9M - down 67%. Quarterly revenue reads $15.0M, $3.1M, $3.7M, $2.8M, $2.9M, $3.1M: a tooth, not a curve. And inside the new bookings is 'a $20 million system sale'. Meanwhile the $(0.55)-to-$(0.13) EPS 'improvement' is 100% a vanished $142.0M warrant remeasurement - strip it and operating losses DOUBLED to $53.3M while opex rose 93%. Non-GAAP opex of $39.1M a quarter on a 67.7% gross margin means D-Wave needs $231M of revenue just to break even: 18.6x its $12.4M trailing revenue.

THE CALL: SELL (1/5, FAIR VALUE $5.25 vs THE $20.76 CLOSE - 74.7% BELOW THE PRICE AND 85% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$5.25 vs ~$20.76 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 1/5, fair value $5.25 vs the $20.76 Aug 7 close = 74.7% below. Bull $18.14, bear $1.00, buy under $4.50. 372,011,420 shares = $7.71B equity (the feed says $7.62B); EV $7.20B on $12.4M TTM revenue = 580x sales. Cash + investments $546.2M, loans $35.0M, burn $147M/yr.

- Street: Strong Buy. 13 analysts, 13 buy / 0 hold / 0 sell, target $34.29 (median $35, range $22-$43), +65%. We are 85% below - and even our BULL case sits under the lowest target.

What to watch: UP: the only dual-platform quantum company (annealing plus gate-model), a peer-reviewed Nature result on a high-fidelity two-qubit entangling gate that preserves the dual-rail error-correction advantage, and one of only two 'Leader' placings in the IDC MarketScape. Bookings $35.5M (+1,120%) and RPO $40.7M (+668%), with AT&T, Nasdaq Verafin, Shionogi and Unisys signing. QCaaS production work rose from 9.8% to 37.3% of QCaaS revenue. Commercial customers were 62.4% of Q2 revenue vs 45.1%. $546.2M of cash and proven access to equity. DOWN: revenue $3.076M was flat and missed by 23.6%. The 42-cent EPS improvement is entirely a vanished warrant mark. $20M of the $35.5M bookings is one machine - and the last machine was followed by a 67% revenue fall. Shares outstanding are up 485% (63.1M to 369.3M) in under four years. Operating cash burn doubled to $73.5M. And $20.74 requires ~115% compound revenue growth every year to 2032.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): system-wide sales $12.702B, up 6.4% in constant currency; comparable sales +3.8%; net restaurant growth +2.9% to 33,156 restaurants. Total revenue $2.520B vs a $2.5445B bar (a MISS). Adjusted diluted EPS $1.07 vs a $1.04 bar (a 3-cent BEAT), up 12.9%. GAAP income from operations $716M, up 48.4%; net income from continuing operations $665M, up 152.1%. Adjusted operating income $715M, up 6.9% reported and 6.7% ORGANIC. The 8-K was accepted 6:32am ET, BEFORE the open, so Thursday Aug 6 was the reaction session: $74.49 to $72.92, down 2.11% on 4,312,600 shares. Friday Aug 7 closed $73.89.

Burger King in the United States comped +8.5%, its best quarter in years - and we tested it for a soft base and LOST. The two-year stack doubled from 4.7% to 10.0%, so the turnaround is real. It still added only $16M to a company that earned $715M of adjusted operating income - 2.2% of the line - because Burger King is 19.2% of the profit and Tim Hortons is 40.1%. Tim Hortons comped +0.1%, and the revenue it did add was supply chain: +$56M of the segment's +$54M came from selling franchisees ingredients and packaged goods at higher commodity prices, at a 16.7% incremental margin against a 25.2% segment average. Popeyes US fell 5.2%, a fifth straight decline. So ORGANIC adjusted operating income grew 6.7% - below the company's own 8%+ algorithm - and the stock fell 2.1%. The +48.4% GAAP operating income headline is not operations: a $175M swing in other operating income (a $50M currency remeasurement GAIN vs a $207M LOSS) plus a $160M tax swing (a $73M benefit vs an $87M expense on an intra-group reorganisation) is $335M of the $401M net income increase - 83.5% of it.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $74 vs THE $73.89 CLOSE - 0.1% ABOVE THE PRICE AND 11.6% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$74.0 vs ~$73.89 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $74 vs the $73.89 Aug 7 close = 0.1% above. Bull $83, bear $65, buy under $63. 460M diluted units (349M shares + ~111M RBI LP exchangeable) = $33.99B equity, EV $46.54B = 15.1x LTM adj EBITDA of $3.083B. Net debt $12.546B, 4.1x.

- Street: Buy. 44 analysts, 27 buy / 15 hold / 2 sell, target $83.62 (median $84), +13.2%. We are 11.6% below.

What to watch: UP: Burger King US comparable sales +8.5% with the two-year stack doubling to 10.0% - a real turnaround, not a base effect; segment operating income +13.2%. International compounding on both axes: +5.5% comparable sales on +5.1% net restaurant growth, 16,570 restaurants (up 803). Net leverage down from 4.6x to 4.1x. LTM free cash flow $1.632B. A 3.5% dividend yield ($0.65/quarter) with $829M of buyback authorisation left. H1 organic AOI growth of 8.5% is AT the 8% algorithm. DOWN: 40.1% of adjusted operating income is Tim Hortons, which comped +0.1% and grew revenue only by passing commodity inflation through its supply chain at a slightly worse margin. Popeyes US -5.2% for a fifth straight quarter. International profit growth fell from +42% in Q1 to +13.2%. Organic AOI grew 6.7% - below algorithm - in Burger King's best quarter. And $749M was returned in H1 against $648M of free cash flow: 116%.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.