Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30): net sales $2,177.0M, +4.8% reported / +4.0% ORGANIC constant currency, vs a $2,134.8M consensus. Adjusted diluted EPS $2.07 vs a $2.01 bar - but FLAT year over year. GAAP diluted EPS $1.03. Adjusted net earnings FELL 2.8% to $399.6M and adjusted operating profit FELL 3.2%. FY2026 guidance RAISED to $8.47-$8.59. The 8-K was accepted 6:30am ET Wednesday Aug 5, before the open: the stock opened $101.00, closed $98.16, and was back to $96.55 by Friday.

Zimmer Biomet beat the adjusted earnings bar by six cents, raised full-year guidance, and gapped from $95.81 to open at $101.00. Three sessions later it was back at $96.55 - the entire gap given back while six separate desks raised their price targets. Here is what the tape saw. Adjusted net earnings FELL from $411.2M to $399.6M, down 2.8%, on revenue that grew 4.8%. Adjusted operating profit fell 3.2%. Adjusted gross margin fell 120bps. Adjusted EPS was flat at $2.07 only because 5.5 million shares are no longer there: $399.6M over LAST year's 198.3M diluted shares is $2.02, and the bar was $2.01 - in line, not a beat. And Knees, 38% of the company, grew 0.1% in constant currency while Stryker's knees grew 8.0%.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $96 vs THE $96.55 CLOSE - PRICED CORRECTLY, AND THE DISCOUNT TO STRYKER IS EARNED) — base-case value ~$96.0 vs ~$96.55 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $96 vs the $96.55 Aug 7 close = effectively LEVEL. Bull $136, bear $62. Buy under $82. EV $25.68B = 11.1x trailing EBITDA of $2.31B, the SAME multiple as Smith & Nephew and half of Stryker's 21.0x. Net debt/EBITDA 3.1x. FY26E FCF $1.29B, a 6.9% yield.

- Street: Hold. S&P Global 27 analysts (9 buy / 18 hold / 0 sell), avg target $106.76 (Aug 6); Benzinga 23 analysts, avg $103.53. After the print: six target RAISES and ZERO rating changes - TD Cowen $115, Stifel $110, RBC $110, Truist $106 from $92 and KEPT A HOLD.

What to watch: UP: net sales $2,177.0M, +4.8% reported and +4.0% organic constant currency, ahead of a $2,134.8M bar; adjusted diluted EPS $2.07 vs $2.01; GAAP diluted EPS $1.03, +33.8%; FY2026 guidance RAISED on revenue (3.9-4.9% reported, 2.25-3.25% organic cc) and adjusted EPS ($8.47-$8.59 from $8.40-$8.55); free cash flow $308.3M, +24%, with FY26 FCF guided +9-11%; Hips +5.1% cc; Technology, Data, Bone Cement and Surgical +21.5% cc with US technology sales +53%; $500.8M of stock repurchased in H1 and the FY26 buyback raised to $1.0B; 11.1x EV/EBITDA and a 6.9% free cash flow yield against Stryker at 21.0x. DOWN: adjusted net earnings FELL 2.8% to $399.6M and adjusted operating profit FELL 3.2% to $559.7M on 4.8% revenue growth; adjusted gross margin -120bps to 71.1% and adjusted operating margin -210bps to 25.7%; SG&A +10.4% to $899.3M, a 209bp deterioration, while R&D was CUT 7.5%; hold the share count at last year's 198.3M and adjusted EPS is $2.02 against a $2.01 bar - in line, not a six-cent beat; Knees, 38% of revenue, grew 0.1% cc while Stryker's knees grew 8.0%; the FY26 guidance raise of ~5.5 cents is roughly the size of the Q2 beat itself; net debt $7,069M with goodwill and intangibles at 114% of equity, so tangible book is negative; FY2025 free cash flow was only 0.72x adjusted net earnings; and the transformation is being run by an interim CFO.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) Q2 2026 — Q2 FY2026 (13 weeks ended June 27): net sales $10,532M, +4.5% vs a $10,463M consensus. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.44 vs a $1.36 bar - an 8-cent BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $1.24, +29.2%. Adjusted EBITDA a RECORD $604M, +10.2%, margin +29bps to 5.7%. Independent restaurant cases +5.1%, a fourth straight quarter of acceleration. FY2026 guidance REAFFIRMED. The 8-K was accepted 6:47am ET Thursday Aug 6, before the open: +6.4% to $106.97, then $108.88 Friday, an all-time closing high.

US Foods beat the adjusted earnings bar by eight cents and the stock ran to the highest close in its history. Here is the arithmetic nobody ran. Adjusted net income was $317M. Over this year's 220.5M diluted shares that is the reported $1.44. Over LAST year's 233.0M shares it is $1.36 - the consensus bar, to the cent. Every cent of the beat came out of the denominator. The growth is real, though: adjusted net income grew 14.4% on its own and independent restaurant case volume has accelerated four straight quarters, from 3.3% in FY2025 to 5.1% now. The compounding is earned. The surprise was bought. Meanwhile Sysco has agreed to pay $29.1B of enterprise value for Jetro Restaurant Depot - almost exactly what the market is paying for all of US Foods.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, FAIR VALUE $88 vs $108.88 IS 19% OF DOWNSIDE - AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$88.0 vs ~$108.88 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $88 vs the $108.88 Aug 7 close = 19% DOWNSIDE. Bull $103, bear $51. Buy under $80. EV $29.19B = 14.5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $2.01B and 13.6x the FY26 guide of $2.14B; net leverage 2.6x; FCF yield 4.3%.

- Street: Buy, 25 analysts (18 buy / 7 hold / 0 sell), avg target $111.44 (high $127, low $88) = just +2.4%. After the print: TD Cowen $119 from $116, BTIG $120 from $105, both Aug 7.

What to watch: UP: net sales $10,532M, +4.5%, ahead of a $10,463M bar; adjusted diluted EPS $1.44 vs $1.36; Adjusted EBITDA a record $604M, +10.2%, margin +29bps to 5.7%; net income $275M, +22.8%; gross profit +8.0% on 4.5% sales growth; independent restaurant cases +5.1%, accelerating for a fourth straight quarter; net leverage down to 2.6x; 4.4M shares bought at ~$85, 21% below Friday; FY2026 guidance reaffirmed at +4-6% sales, +9-13% Adjusted EBITDA, +18-24% adjusted EPS. DOWN: hold the share count at last year's 233.0M and adjusted EPS is $1.36, exactly in line - the whole beat is the 12.5M retired shares; total cases grew only 1.9% and chain fell 1.5%; a $19M LIFO swing is 13% of gross-profit growth; operating cash flow FLAT at $725M in the half; ~$200M a year of fleet goes on finance leases, never touching the cash flow statement; an all-time high on a 5.1% EBITDA margin with $5.2B of net debt; and Sysco plus Jetro puts 166 cash-and-carry stores in front of independents.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Amrize Ltd (AMRZ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30, in USD under US GAAP): revenue $3,494M, +8.6% (organic +6.7%) vs $3,366M consensus - a $128M BEAT. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.88 vs a $0.95 bar - a 7.8% MISS. GAAP diluted EPS $0.86, +14.7%. Adjusted EBITDA $986M, +5.8%, margin 28.2%, -80bps. FY26 revenue guidance RAISED to $12.5-12.7B; FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance CUT to $3.1-3.2B from $3.25-3.34B. The 8-K was accepted 8:51pm ET Thursday Aug 6, after the close, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction session: -8.94% to $46.64 on 9.5M shares - the lowest close in the company's life and one cent below its Aug 7, 2025 close.

Amrize - the North American building-materials business Holcim spun off in June 2025 - reported Q2 2026 after Thursday's close and beat on revenue by $128M, then raised full-year revenue guidance. The stock fell 8.94% on Friday to $46.64, the lowest close in its 14-month life and one cent below where it closed exactly a year earlier. Three findings the coverage missed. One: of the $276M of revenue growth, $200M was VOLUME and only $16M was PRICE, with cement pricing at -0.2% in constant currency while diesel and freight inflated. Two: revenue guidance went UP $195M and Adjusted EBITDA guidance came DOWN $145M in the same paragraph, deleting roughly half the year's guided growth. Three: the Item 2.02 revision of prior period financial statements made FY2025 net income $9M BETTER, not worse.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $50 vs $46.64 IS 7% - THE SELL-OFF TOOK AMRIZE FROM EXPENSIVE TO ROUGHLY FAIR, AND NO FURTHER) — base-case value ~$50.0 vs ~$46.64 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $50 vs the $46.64 Aug 7 close = 7% upside. Bull $64, bear $36. Buy under $42. EV $31.10B = 10.3x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of $3.02B and 9.9x the new FY26 guide of $3.15B; net debt 1.7x; FCF yield 5.8%.

- Street: Buy, 8 analysts (5 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell), avg target $62.83 (high $70, low $48). After the print: Citi $66 from $76, Morgan Stanley $65 from $69. Truist cut to Hold on July 7, BEFORE the print.

What to watch: UP: revenue $3,494M, +8.6%, a $128M beat, with cement volumes +5.0% and aggregates volumes +6.5% into data-centre, energy and infrastructure demand; aggregates pricing +4.0% constant currency, freight adjusted; cement pricing +2.1% SEQUENTIALLY as April increases landed; adjusted EPS sits just 2c above GAAP EPS (add-backs are 1.8% of Adjusted EBITDA); $502M returned in the quarter; leverage still investment grade at 1.7x; ASPIRE on track for $80M of 2026 savings and $250M+ through 2028. DOWN: adjusted EPS $0.88 missed a $0.95 bar by 7.8%; Adjusted EBITDA margin -80bps to 28.2%; cement pricing -0.2% year on year in a cost-inflation quarter; Building Envelope segment EBITDA -5.2% with margin -350bps (after -500bps in Q1); FY26 Adjusted EBITDA guidance CUT $145M to $3.1-3.2B, implying a 25.0% FY margin vs 25.5% in 2025; net debt $3,347M to $5,275M in six months; and an Item 2.02 revision of prior periods for $78M of understated extended-warranty deferred revenue at Duro-Last and Malarkey.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): Portfolio Receipts $773M, +6%; Royalty Receipts $768M, +14%; milestones $5M vs $56M, -91%. Net cash from operations $728M, +100%. Adjusted EBITDA $736M, +16%. Portfolio Cash Flow $736M, +15%. GAAP diluted EPS $0.04 (net income to RPRX plc $18M vs $32M) after a $472M non-cash swing in the provision for changes in expected cash flows: $268M charge vs a $204M credit. FY26 Portfolio Receipts guidance RAISED for the second time, to $3,400-3,500M, with Royalty Receipts growth of 7-10%. The 8-K was accepted 7:33am ET Wednesday Aug 5, before the open, so Aug 5 is the reaction session: +0.47% to $57.75. Last close Aug 7: $56.77, BELOW the $57.48 pre-print close.

Royalty Pharma reported Q2 2026 before the open on Wednesday August 5 and the headline was strong: Royalty Receipts +14% to $768M, operating cash flow doubled to $728M, and full-year guidance raised a second time. The stock rose 0.47% and by Friday was $56.77 - below where it closed the day BEFORE the print. Three findings the coverage missed. One: the cystic fibrosis franchise, 25% of Royalty Receipts, collected $194M against $194M - zero growth - and RPRX booked a $109M provision charge on it BECAUSE the Alyftrek sales forecast went UP, since Vertex is moving patients onto a product RPRX says it is not being fully paid on. Two: the '$1.32 EPS beat' is not EPS - GAAP EPS was $0.04. Three: RPRX marks its whole portfolio at $24.6B in its own 10-Q while the market pays a $41.05B enterprise value.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $43 vs $56.77 IS 24% OF DOWNSIDE - A GREAT BUSINESS, AND OUR BULL CASE IS ALREADY THE SHARE PRICE) — base-case value ~$43.0 vs ~$56.77 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $43 vs the $56.77 Aug 7 close = 24% downside. Bull $56, bear $35. Buy under $44. EV $41.05B = 12.7x FY26E Adjusted EBITDA of $3.24B; 11.3x Portfolio Cash Flow per share of $5.02.

- Street: Buy, 11 analysts (11 buy / 0 hold / 0 sell), avg target $59.50 (high $66, low $50). After the print: Citi $66 from $50, TD Cowen $65 from $50, Morgan Stanley $64, JPMorgan $58.

What to watch: UP: Royalty Receipts $768M, +14%, with Tremfya +53%, Voranigo +72%, Evrysdi +42%, Tysabri +19%; operating cash flow doubled to $728M; Adjusted EBITDA $736M, +16%, as costs fell from 12.9% of receipts to 4.8% after the May 2025 internalisation (we stripped stock comp from both years and the +16% survives); FY26 guidance raised a second time to $3,400-3,500M; $1.7B of announced deals and $1.1B deployed YTD, including up to $425M for AstraZeneca's cliramitug; net debt only 2.59x; 19 development-stage candidates at $1.6B of cost, including daraxonrasib. DOWN: Portfolio Receipts grew just 6% because milestones fell to $5M from $56M; the CF franchise, $4.7B of carrying value, grew 0% amid a dispute with Vertex over whether Alyftrek's deuterated ivacaftor component is royalty-bearing; a $268M provision charge driven by Adstiladrin (-$130M) and the CF franchise (-$109M); GAAP EPS $0.04; buybacks cut 90% to $96M in H1; $107M of quarterly share comp sits outside Adjusted EBITDA; and the shares are up 53% in twelve months.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

MPLX LP (MPLX) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX $1,775M, +5.0%; Crude Oil and Products Logistics $1,161M +2.0%, Natural Gas and NGL Services $614M +11.2%; DCF $1,450M +2.1% (H1 $2,858M, DOWN 1.7%); net income attributable $1,077M; EPS $1.06 vs a $1.06 bar, in line; operating revenue $3,082M vs a $3,142M bar. Distribution $1.0765/unit, +12.5%, coverage 1.3x. Adjusted FCF $668M against $1,092M of LP distributions = MINUS $424M. The 8-K was accepted 6:49am ET Tuesday Aug 4, before the open, so Aug 4 is the reaction session: +2.72% to $60.51, a 12-month closing high. Last close Aug 7: $58.85.

MPLX reported Q2 2026 before the open on Tuesday August 4 and the headline was good: adjusted EBITDA $1,775M (+5.0%), DCF $1,450M (+2.1%), the distribution raised 12.5% for the second year running, and the units closed at a 12-month high of $60.51. Fifteen pages into MPLX's own release is a line nobody quoted: adjusted free cash flow AFTER distributions of MINUS $424M, against PLUS $154M a year ago (H1: -$968M vs -$183M). MPLX funded that gap out of its cash pile, which fell from $2,137M to $1,031M while face debt stayed flat at $26.0B. Two more findings the coverage missed: distribution coverage of 1.3x (from 1.5x) is now management's stated TARGET for 2026, 2027 and beyond, and 73% of the quarter's EBITDA growth came from Natural Gas and NGL, which is only 35% of the base, while total pipeline throughput FELL 4%.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $60 vs $58.85 IS ONLY 2% - THE 7.3% YIELD IS THE RETURN, AND FREE CASH FLOW AFTER DISTRIBUTIONS WENT TO MINUS $424M) — base-case value ~$60.0 vs ~$58.85 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $60 vs the $58.85 Aug 7 close (+2.0%), plus a 7.32% yield = ~9.3% total return. Bull $70, bear $50. We would buy under $52 (an 8.3% yield). EV $84.65B = 12.0x LTM adjusted EBITDA of $7.07B; 10.3x DCF per unit of $5.72.

- Street: Buy, 28 analysts (19 buy / 9 hold / 0 sell), avg target $62 (high $63, low $59); S&P Global has $60.92 off 15 analysts. Barclays raised to $63 from $59; Wells Fargo maintained Overweight Aug 5; Wolfe Research CUT to Peer Perform on July 29, a week before the print.

What to watch: UP: adjusted EBITDA attributable $1,775M, +5.0%, in the guided mid-single-digit range; Natural Gas and NGL Services +11.2% to $614M with operated gathering +5% (+13% ex-divestitures) and NGLs fractionated +7% to 680 mbpd; the distribution was raised 12.5% to $1.0765 and management guided 12.5% again for 2026 AND 2027; coverage still 1.3x; 2026 growth capital raised $500M to $2.9B at underwritten mid-teens returns with five projects entering service in six months (Harmon Creek III, Bay Runner, Titan, BANGL, Blackcomb); $5B of liquidity ($1.0B cash, $2.5B revolver, $1.5B MPC intercompany). DOWN: adjusted free cash flow after distributions was MINUS $424M in the quarter and MINUS $968M for the half, against +$154M and -$183M a year ago; cash halved from $2,137M to $1,031M in six months while face debt stayed flat, so the gap came out of the cash pile; leverage went from 3.1x to 3.7x against a stated ~4.0x comfort as $4.5B of debt funded Northwind and BANGL; H1 DCF fell 1.7% while adjusted EBITDA rose 1.7%, because adjusted net interest went from $444M to $565M; total pipeline throughput fell 4% (crude pipelines -5%) with Logistics growing only on tariff rates and butane blending; and the units trade at 12.0x LTM EBITDA, 2.7% below a 12-month high set on the print itself.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): net sales $4,189M +0.6% (bar $4,225M, a small miss); organic sales -0.1%; adjusted EPS attributable to Kimberly-Clark $2.12 vs a $2.01 bar - a 5.5% BEAT, up 10.4% YoY; adjusted gross margin 38.8%, +190bp; adjusted operating profit $757M +6.2%; GAAP diluted EPS $1.04. North America $2,698M -1.2%, IPC $1,491M +4.0%. The 8-K was accepted 6:33am ET Tuesday Aug 4, before the open, so Aug 4 is the reaction session: +3.73% to $111.57. Last close Aug 7: $109.68.

Almost every data feed shows Kimberly-Clark missing Q2 2026 by 10%: EPS of $1.80 against a $2.01 bar. The stock rose 3.73% that session. The feeds are wrong. The release contains FOUR different EPS for the quarter, and the $2.01 bar refers to Adjusted EPS Attributable to Kimberly-Clark, which came in at $2.12 - a 5.5% BEAT, up 10.4% YoY. We prove the basis in two lines: the feed's own stored Q1+Q2 2025 (1.93+1.92=3.85) and Q1+Q2 2026 (1.97+2.12=4.09) match the filed half-year adjusted ATTRIBUTABLE figures exactly, while the continuing-operations series ($3.25 and $3.40) does not. Two findings the coverage missed: free cash flow covered the dividend just 0.99x in 2025 (down from 1.75x in 2023) BEFORE the Kenvue deal, and the 2026 dividend raise was the smallest in a decade at +1.6%. And the guidance line nobody read: adjusted EPS attributable is guided to a low-single-digit DECLINE, even though continuing-ops EPS is guided to high-single-digit GROWTH.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL BEAT THE SCREENS RECORDED AS A MISS - BUT ONLY 3.9% OF UPSIDE, AND THE DIVIDEND COVER BROKE IN 2025) — base-case value ~$114.0 vs ~$109.68 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $114 vs the $109.68 Aug 7 close (+3.9%). Bull $130 (85% synergy capture at 15x), bear $97 (40% capture at 13x). Standalone, no deal: $103. We would buy under $100.

- Street: Hold, 31 analysts (9 buy / 19 hold / 3 sell), avg target $113, median $115.50. After the print: Piper Sandler $121 (from $115), Barclays $115 (from $101), UBS $115 (from $106) - three RAISES, no rating changes.

What to watch: UP: Adjusted EPS attributable $2.12 beat the $2.01 bar and rose 10.4%; adjusted gross margin expanded 190bp to 38.8% with ZERO volume growth, which is what industry-leading productivity looks like; adjusted operating profit $757M +6.2%; North America operating profit +10.7% to $725M on tariff refunds and productivity; total debt fell from $7.2B to $6.5B; a 4.67% dividend yield; and the market is paying only about $6.70 a share for the entire $48.7B Kenvue transaction, which carries $2.1B of net run-rate synergies. DOWN: organic sales were MINUS 0.1% with volume flat and net price negative - all of the reported growth was currency; adjusted EPS ATTRIBUTABLE is guided to a low-single-digit DECLINE in 2026 against the $7.53 earned in 2025; free cash flow covered the dividend 0.99x in 2025; the China social-media diaper disruption cost ~50bp of organic sales, 140bp of IPC sales and 440bp of IPC operating profit and management says it worsens near term; the Kenvue deal issues 281.4M new shares (+84.6% share count) plus $6.73B of new debt, taking pro-forma leverage to ~2.8x; and the pro-forma dividend bill nearly doubles to $3.14B while $2.5B of integration cash goes out.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): revenue $38.639M vs a $30.2M bar - a 28% BEAT; GAAP EPS -$0.25 vs -$0.234 - a narrow miss; GAAP net loss $245.4M, but adjusted EBITDA loss $197.0M vs $131.6M a year ago. R&D $194.7M +42.7%; SG&A $76.6M +143%; loss from operations $260.9M. FY2026 revenue guide RAISED to $115-125M from $105-115M. Cash + short-term investments $2.264B. The 8-K was accepted 4:03pm ET Wednesday Aug 5, so Thursday Aug 6 is the reaction session: +5.5% to $8.23, then +5.0% to $8.64 on Aug 7.

Joby's net loss more than doubled sequentially to $245.4M and the stock went UP 5.5%. Both facts trace to one non-cash line: change in fair value of warrants, earnout shares and contingent consideration. That line was a $106.0M GAIN in Q1 and a $3.3M LOSS in Q2 - a $108.2M swing that is 80% of the sequential deterioration. Measured year over year the same line flatters instead: the net loss NARROWED $79.2M because it was a $126.3M loss a year ago. Strip it out and adjusted EBITDA loss went from $131.6M to $197.0M - 50% worse. Three findings the coverage missed: the raised $115-125M guide implies a second half of $57.1M at the midpoint, 9% BELOW the $62.9M first half already booked; Joby raised $1.29B in six months ($600M stock, $690M converts, a mortgage) and shares rose 8.4% to 986.5M with 14.2M warrants expiring Aug 10 and a $95.6M Blade earnout settling in shares by Aug 29; and Joby's own certification chart shows the FAA has verified just 10% of the fifth and final stage.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, A REAL COMPANY AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY ASSUMES IT WORKS - EVEN OUR BULL CASE ONLY COMPOUNDS AT 10% A YEAR) — base-case value ~$6.0 vs ~$8.64 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $6.00 vs the $8.64 Aug 7 close (-30.6%). Bull $15.20, bear $2.25. We would look again under $5, with $1.58/share of net cash beneath it.

- Q2: revenue $38.6M (bar $30.2M), EPS -$0.25 (bar -$0.234), net loss $245.4M, adj EBITDA loss $197.0M vs $131.6M. Cash $2.264B. FY guide raised to $115-125M.

- Street: Hold, 8 analysts (2 buy / 4 hold / 2 sell). Dated Aug 6: Needham $15 (CUT from $18), H.C. Wainwright $18. Older: Morgan Stanley $13, Canaccord $11.50.

What to watch: UP: revenue beat by 28% and FY2026 guidance was RAISED to $115-125M from $105-115M; Blade generated $36.2M with seats flown up over 50% and revenue up 32% in H1, and aircraft availability rather than demand is the constraint on many routes; $2.264B of cash and short-term investments against $702M of debt, so $1.56B of net cash ($1.58/share); five aircraft flying including the first FAA-conforming airframe with 12 more in production; a Toyota manufacturing joint venture formed in the quarter; first eIPP flights expected in September in Texas under a White-House-backed programme spanning 11 states; a partnership with Atoms and an exclusive UK airline deal with Virgin Atlantic. DOWN: adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $197.0M from $131.6M, 50% worse year over year and $19M worse than Q1; R&D rose 42.7% to $194.7M and SG&A 143% to $76.6M; the raised guide implies H2 revenue 9% BELOW H1 and no air-taxi revenue at all in 2026; H2 cash use is guided at $385-415M; long-term debt went from zero to $701.9M and the share count rose 8.4% in six months to 986.5M with the 2032 converts striking at $14.19; the FAA has verified only 10% of certification stage five; 94% of trailing revenue is helicopters, not air taxis.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): revenue $1,099.7M +5.4% (bar $1,091M, a beat); non-GAAP EPS $1.59 vs a $1.57 bar - a beat, and DOWN 8% YoY; GAAP EPS $0.52, down 27%; non-GAAP operating margin 25% vs 30%. Security $604M +10%, Cloud Infrastructure $99M +39%, Delivery $396M -6%. The 8-K was accepted 4:07pm ET Thursday Aug 6, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction session: -6.76% to $110.54.

Akamai beat on revenue and on earnings, announced $2.8B of signed multi-year AI cloud contracts including one worth over $600M across four years, and fell 6.76% the next session. The beat is the most misleading number in the release: $1.59 cleared a $1.57 bar, but it is down 8% year over year against a bar Akamai itself set 10% below last year, and the FY2026 guide of $6.725 at the midpoint is a 5.5% DECLINE from 2025's actual $7.12. Three findings the coverage missed: the margin guide has walked 27% -> 26% -> 25.5% since February; $615.7M of first-half buybacks produced ZERO share reduction (diluted shares rose 5.8% to 153.7M); and the cash flow statement shows flat capex of $225.8M while Akamai's own accrual table shows $346.5M, 32% of revenue against 21%, bridged by a $148M payables build.

THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A GOOD BUSINESS WHOSE CHEAP MULTIPLE IS AN ADD-BACK - NOT ONE CELL OF OUR VALUATION GRID CLEARS THE SHARE PRICE) — base-case value ~$81.0 vs ~$110.54 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 4/5, fair value $81 vs the $110.54 Aug 7 close (-26.7%). Bull $105, bear $50 - the bull case is still BELOW the price. We would look again under $75.

- Street: Hold, 52 analysts (25 buy / 25 hold / 2 sell), avg target $154.14. Dated Aug 7: UBS $125, RBC $135, Baird $140, Piper $140, Guggenheim $190 - four cuts, one raise, averaging $146.

What to watch: UP: Security is $604M and 55% of revenue growing 10%; Cloud Infrastructure Services grew 39% to $99M and management disclosed over $2.8B of multi-year CIS contracts signed year to date, including one worth more than $600M over four years with a US technology company for robotics development; cloud infrastructure now out-adds Delivery's decline in dollars for the first time (+$27.9M vs -$24.2M); $4.616B of cash and marketable securities; the stock is already 31% below its May 13 high of $161.14. DOWN: non-GAAP operating margin fell to 25% from 30% and the FY guide was cut twice; FY2026 non-GAAP EPS is guided to FALL 5.5% after rising 10% in 2025; accrual capex hit 32% of revenue and Akamai deleted the capex line from its guidance table after February's 23-25%; incremental gross margin on the growth is roughly zero (revenue +$56.2M, cost of revenue +$59.4M); stock compensation is 13.3% of revenue and the share count rose despite $615.7M of buybacks; the guidance share assumption was raised from 147M to 150M.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Maplebear Inc. (Instacart) (CART) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): GTV $10,351M +14%, revenue $1,043M +14% (bar $1,026M), adjusted EBITDA $313M +19% (bar $297.8M, a 5.1% BEAT), but GAAP diluted EPS $0.45 vs a $0.542 bar - a 16.6% MISS - and net income $111M, DOWN 4%. Orders 90.3M, up only 9%. The 8-K hit EDGAR at 4:09pm ET Thursday Aug 6, so Friday Aug 7 is the reaction session: $45.03 to $50.17, UP 11.41%.

Instacart missed the consensus EPS number by 16.6% and the stock added over $1.2B of market value the next session. Both were correct: the miss is entirely tax and lost interest income (income from operations grew 15.3% to $143M; interest income fell $15M to $5M and the tax rate went 18.3% to 24.5%), while adjusted EBITDA beat by 5.1%. But three things went unquoted. Order growth has nearly halved in two quarters (Q4 2025 +16%, Q1 2026 +10%, Q2 2026 +9%) and orders FELL sequentially, 91.2M to 90.3M - the 14% GTV headline is basket size, up 4.4% to $114.63. Advertising is 2.87% of GTV against 2.81% a year ago, and that ratio has not left a 2.8-3.1% band for three years. And EPS rose 8% while net income fell 4%: on last year's diluted share count the quarter earned $0.395, not $0.446.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GENUINELY GOOD BUSINESS THAT JUST REPRICED TO FAIR - FRIDAY TOOK THE MARGIN OF SAFETY WITH IT) — base-case value ~$56.0 vs ~$50.17 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $56 vs the $50.17 Aug 7 close (+11.6%). Bull $74, bear $38, we would buy under $44. Street: Buy, 28 analysts, 21 buy / 6 hold / 1 sell, avg target $56.47 (+12.6%); the seven targets raised on Aug 7 average $59.

- GTV $10,351M +14%; orders 90.3M +9% (was +16% two quarters ago); AOV $114.63 +4.4%. Revenue $1,043M +14%. Ads $297M +16.5% = 2.87% of GTV vs 2.81%. Adj EBITDA $313M +19% (5.1% beat). GAAP EPS $0.45 vs $0.542 (16.6% miss).

- Op income +15.3% to $143M; the miss is $10M less interest income and a 24.5% tax rate. EV $10.93B on 231.5M shares, no debt, $885M cash. 9.2x adj EBITDA but 18.0x our $608M of 2026 owner earnings after $430M of SBC.

What to watch: UP: GTV +14% is the fastest in three years and Q3 guidance implies another +14% at the midpoint ($10,300-$10,550M) with adjusted EBITDA of $320-340M (+19%); advertising and other revenue $297M, +16.5%, outpacing GTV; gross margin 72% of revenue; adjusted EBITDA $313M, 3.0% of GTV, a record; free cash flow $480M; $885M of cash and securities with ZERO debt; $998M still authorised for buyback after $1,859M repurchased in twelve months; the Enterprise stack (Storefront Pro, Caper, FoodStorm, AI Solutions) keeps signing retailers, and Instacart became Google's first grocery partner to integrate with Gemini. DOWN: order growth halved from +16% to +9% in two quarters and orders fell sequentially; the advertising take rate has been flat at 2.8-3.1% of GTV for three years; all of the EPS growth is the buyback; the $156% free cash flow jump is ~62% an accounts-receivable release; SBC $142M is +35% YoY and 13.6% of revenue with $659M unrecognised; a $596M deferred tax asset is holding cash taxes below book taxes; and DoorDash, Uber Eats, Amazon Fresh, Walmart Spark and Kroger all want the same order.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30): revenue $1.21M - the first in company history - vs an estimate near $84K, but the 10-Q splits it into $800K of engineering and consulting, $168K of machining and $242K of other, all of it arriving with two engineering firms Oklo BOUGHT in June for $33.4M of cash. Cost of sales $721K, so gross profit was $489K. EPS -$0.28 vs a -$0.16 bar. Opex $74.4M, +165.6%. The 10-Q hit EDGAR at 7:19am ET Friday, so Aug 7 is the reaction session: $42.19 to $48.42, UP 14.77%.

Oklo's first-ever revenue is not a reactor result. The 10-Q disaggregates the $1,210K three ways - $800K of engineering and consulting services, $168K of manufacturing and fabrication, $242K of other - and the MD&A says both new subsidiaries 'continue to provide engineering services to an established group of customers.' Oklo acquired ARMEC on June 4 for $20,462K and Creative Engineers on June 15 for $12,918K: $33.4M of cash, four weeks before the quarter closed. Cost of sales was $721K, so gross profit was $489 THOUSAND - against $1,158.9M of market value added on Friday. Meanwhile the Groves reactor reached first criticality on August 5 and the stock FELL the day it was announced.

THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, A REAL REACTOR AND A REAL BALANCE SHEET, AT A PRICE THAT ALREADY PAYS FOR SEVEN GIGAWATTS THAT DO NOT EXIST) — base-case value ~$23.0 vs ~$48.42 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: AVOID 3/5, fair value $23 vs the $48.42 Aug 7 close (-52.5%). Bull $36, bear $11, look again under $20. Street: Buy, 13 analysts, 10 buy / 3 hold / 0 sell, avg target $82 (+69.4%) - but every target set in the last 60 days is $55-$76.

- Revenue $1.21M vs an ~$84K bar - $800K engineering, $168K machining, $242K other, all acquired for $33.4M in June. Cost of sales $721K; gross profit $489K. EPS -$0.28 vs -$0.16. Opex $74.4M (+165.6%).

- Market cap $9.01B on 186.0M shares; less $3.01B of cash = $6.00B enterprise value, which our model says already pays for 7.0 GW built and contracted. Oklo has 75 MWe under construction.

What to watch: UP: the Groves Isotope Test Reactor went critical at 9:19pm ET on Aug 5 after 229 days of substantial construction - the fifth reactor critical under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program and the first on private land; DOE approved the Aurora-INL Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis on June 11 (two of five steps) with commercial operation targeted 2028; a 1.2 GWe Meta campus in Pike County with a prepayment agreement; a Centrus HALEU letter of intent for up to five powerhouses; $3.01B of cash and marketable securities against $84.3M of total liabilities. DOWN: zero megawatts in commercial operation; the 14 GW pipeline is described in the filing itself as NON-BINDING letters of intent; net loss widened $24.7M to $48.5M; 2026 operating cash-use guidance raised to $120-150M and capex to $400-500M; $1.85B raised at the market in six months at about $95.50 (Q1) and $62.55 (Q2) a share; share count 147.6M to 186.0M, +26.0% in twelve months.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.