Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Cytokinetics (CYTK) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): total revenue $28.6M vs a $17.6M bar, of which net product revenue $25.3M (US $23.0M, Europe $2.3M) - up from $4.8M in Q1. Loss per share $(1.50) vs a $(1.63) bar; net loss $198.8M. Total operating expenses $207.8M. The 8-K was accepted 4:11pm ET, AFTER the close, so Friday Aug 7 was the reaction session: $81.37 to $76.76, down 5.67% on 3,604,464 shares.

Cytokinetics spent $7.26 of operating cost for every dollar of revenue it booked this quarter - $207.8M of expense against $28.6M of revenue - and almost every good thing in the release made that number worse. ACACIA-HCM hit both dual primary endpoints in non-obstructive HCM, and the company's response in the same press release was to raise 2026 spending guidance from $830-870M to $860-890M, in its own words 'prompted by the positive results from ACACIA-HCM.' The launch is working - product revenue 5.3x sequentially, over 700 prescribers, ~1,500 patients dispensed, over 80% on paid scripts, an 89.2% gross margin - and that is exactly what pushed SG&A ($104.4M) above R&D ($97.8M) for the second straight quarter. Shareholders paid the bill: 11,338,028 new shares at $71.00 for $760.1M net, taking the count from 122.6M to 139.0M in seven months.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $70 vs THE $76.76 CLOSE - 8.8% BELOW THE PRICE AND 36% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$70.0 vs ~$76.76 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $70 vs the $76.76 Aug 7 close = 8.8% downside. Bull $130, bear $21. Buy under $60. Market cap $10.67B on 139.02M shares; EV $10.81B = 106x annualised product revenue of $101M. Breakeven needs $1.05B of product sales - 10.4x from here.

- Street: Buy. 35 analysts, 34 buy / 1 hold / 0 sell, target $109.30 (range $84-$140), +42.4% vs the close. We are 36% below it.

What to watch: UP: ACACIA-HCM met BOTH dual primary endpoints in non-obstructive HCM - the larger half of the disease, with no approved therapy anywhere; full data at ESC this month, sNDA in Q4 2026. Net product revenue 5.3x sequentially to $25.3M at an 89.2% gross margin, 700+ prescribers, ~1,500 patients dispensed, 80%+ on PAID scripts. $1.7B of cash plus a $175M undrawn tranche. 34 of 35 analysts rate it a Buy at $109.30. DOWN: $207.8M of operating cost against $28.6M of revenue - $7.26 spent per dollar sold. Spending guidance raised $30M BECAUSE the trial worked. 11.3M new shares at $71 took the count up 13.4% in seven months. Liabilities $2.10B on $1.92B of assets: book value is NEGATIVE $173.5M. Royalty Pharma owns up to 4.5% of worldwide aficamten sales ahead of you. And sales must rise 10.4x just to stop burning.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Hinge Health (HNGE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $212.8M, up 53%, a 5.6% BEAT and 9.1% above the company's own $195M guide. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.59 vs a $0.615 bar - a 4.1% MISS. GAAP diluted EPS $0.52. Non-GAAP operating income $61.5M, up 136%, a 29% margin. The 8-K was accepted 4:08pm ET, AFTER the close: the reaction session was Wed Aug 5 at +1.73% ($79.42 to $80.79), then $80.08 Thursday - and then $89.33 Friday, up 11.55% on the heaviest volume of the week, three sessions after the print.

Hinge Health grew revenue 53% and grew the cash cost of delivering that care 15.5%. Ninety-five cents of every incremental revenue dollar arrived as gross profit. That is the quarter, and it sits in the one line item that can prove the automation thesis: cost of revenue. Ignore the headline - GAAP gross margin going 70% to 86% is an SBC artifact, because last year's cost of revenue carried $16.4M of IPO stock compensation. The honest move is 83% to 87%. Then look at the equity: $151.3M of cash went out against stock in the half, and shares outstanding still went UP 1.30%, against 11.9M shares of unvested RSU and PRSU overhang.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $88 vs THE $89.33 CLOSE - 1.5% BELOW THE PRICE AND 8% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$88.0 vs ~$89.33 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $88 vs the $89.33 Aug 7 close = 1.5% downside. Bull $117, bear $48. Buy under $76. Market cap $7.21B on 80.69M shares; no debt, $475.6M cash, EV $6.73B = 7.8x guided 2026 revenue of $858M and 28.1x guided non-GAAP operating income of $240M - 56.1x owner earnings after charging $78M of stock pay and taxing at 24%.

- Street: Buy. 16 analysts, 15 buy / 1 hold / 0 sell, target $95.38 (median $96, range $65-$125). Citizens JMP raised to $107, Wells Fargo to $103, Needham to $97, all Aug 2026.

What to watch: UP: revenue $212.8M, +53% against a +40% guide, and 9.1% above the company's own number; non-GAAP cost of revenue up only 15.5%, a 95.0% incremental gross margin; non-GAAP operating margin 19% to 29% in one year; full-year revenue guidance raised $57M against a $17.8M beat, so $39.2M is incremental - we tried to falsify that and failed; LTM billings running 1.20x revenue; no debt and $475.6M of cash; 15 of 16 analysts rate it a Buy. DOWN: EPS actually MISSED, $0.59 vs $0.615; the 70%-to-86% gross margin headline is a stock-compensation artifact and the real move is four points; sales and marketing grew 51.5%, so the go-to-market has NOT levered; $151.3M spent against stock and the share count rose 1.30%; free cash flow is running well ahead of earnings and $115.6M of the half is a deferred revenue build; and it is 56x owner earnings 0.7% off its 12-month high.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): adjusted diluted EPS $1.84 vs a $1.49 bar - a 23.5% BEAT, up 98% year on year. U.S. GAAP EPS was $1.87 - HIGHER than adjusted, so this beat is not an add-back. Revenue $22,681M, up 7.2%, a 0.3% MISS. Total segment operating profit $1,450M, up 75%. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance RAISED from $4.15-$4.70 to $5.15-$5.60. The 8-K was accepted 6:03am ET, BEFORE the open: the stock closed +2.32% at $79.87, then $77.58, $77.51 and $76.59 - below its own $78.06 pre-print price three sessions later.

Archer-Daniels-Midland beat the adjusted EPS bar by 23.5% and raised the implied second half of its own year by 95 cents against a 35-cent beat. We tried to falsify both and failed. The question is what multiple you pay for it. Decompose the $620M increase in segment operating profit and Crushing alone is $330M - 53% - with Vantage Corn ethanol another $52M, so 61.6% comes from two lines sitting directly downstream of the 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations the EPA finalized in March 2026. ADM names that mandate as the cause three separate times in its own release. And on the trailing four quarters that CONTAIN this blow-out, ADM's own release puts adjusted return on invested capital at 7.8%.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, FAIR VALUE $62 vs THE $76.59 CLOSE - 19% BELOW THE PRICE AND 29% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$62.0 vs ~$76.59 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $62 vs the $76.59 Aug 7 close = 19% downside. Bull $74, bear $44. Buy under $53. EV $44.07B = 10.5x trailing adjusted EBITDA of $4.20B; 14.2x the $5.38 guided 2026 adjusted EPS but 22.4x 2025's actual $3.42.

- Street: Hold. 36 analysts, 12 buy / 22 hold / 2 sell, target $88 (median $90, range $79-$95). Morgan Stanley upgraded to Equal-Weight, $60 to $79, Aug 5. Barclays held Equal-Weight, $85 to $90, Aug 5.

What to watch: UP: a 23.5% EPS beat that is NOT an add-back (GAAP $1.87 is above adjusted $1.84); segment operating profit +75% with all three segments up; guidance raised to $5.15-$5.60, lifting the IMPLIED second half from $1.865 to $2.815 - a $0.95 raise on a $0.35 beat; both the 2026 and 2027 RVO are finalized; net debt is only 1.65x EBITDA; the Street models $5.83 in 2027. DOWN: 61.6% of the $620M profit increase is crush plus ethanol, downstream of one EPA mandate; ~$100M is mark-to-market timing worth $0.17/share, so ex-timing the beat is 11.9%; adjusted ROIC is 7.8% at the peak; adjusted EPS was $7.84 in 2022 and $3.42 in 2025; ZERO buybacks; and 14.2x a policy peak is 22.4x last year.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Viatris Inc. (VTRS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $3,756.8M, UP 5% reported and 3.5% operationally, vs a $3,675.4M consensus - a 2.2% BEAT. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.69 vs a $0.601 bar - a 14.8% BEAT (U.S. GAAP was a LOSS of $0.10 on a $118.8M net loss, driven by a $177.8M non-cash Tyrvaya write-down). Adjusted EBITDA $1,188.3M, UP 10%. Every 2026 guidance midpoint RAISED. The 8-K was accepted 7:56am ET, BEFORE the open: the stock opened UP at $18.15, hit a 52-week intraday high of $18.39, then closed $16.29 - down 7.71% on the day and 11.42% from its own high.

Viatris beat on revenue, beat adjusted EPS by 14.8%, and raised every single 2026 guidance midpoint. The stock opened at a fresh 52-week high and closed 11% below it. The reason is where the growth came from. On the company's own constant-currency basis, first-half net sales grew 3%. Apply each segment's own operational rate to its own prior-year base and Greater China - 19% of net sales - contributed about 89% of that growth. Strip China out and the other 81% of Viatris grew four-tenths of one percent. And on the call, management guided Greater China down to low-double-digit growth for the year because of a new Chinese public-hospital procurement policy, Developed Markets to roughly flat with North America declining, and JANZ to a low-single-digit decline. Three of four regions flat or shrinking, and the one engine slowing into a reform nobody can size until November.

THE CALL: SELL (3/5, FAIR VALUE $12.75 vs THE $16.43 CLOSE - 22% BELOW THE PRICE AND 34% BELOW WALL STREET) — base-case value ~$12.75 vs ~$16.43 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $12.75 vs the $16.43 Aug 7 close = 22.4% downside. Bull $19, bear $8. Buy under $10.50. EV $30.80B = 7.0x guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.40B, or 8.1x charging the ~$600M of cash restructuring, and 6.5x guided adjusted EPS of $2.52.

- Street: Hold. 13 analysts, 4 buy / 8 hold / 1 sell, screener target ~$19.25 in an $18-$22 range - UNDATED, we could not verify one post-print revision. We are 34% BELOW them.

What to watch: UP: a genuine double beat - revenue 2.2% ahead, adjusted EPS 14.8% ahead - with every 2026 guidance midpoint RAISED (revenue $14.75B, adjusted EBITDA $4.40B, adjusted EPS $2.52); we tested whether the raise was only the beat and it was FALSE - implied H2 adjusted EPS went from $1.12 to $1.24, a real raise while absorbing $100-150M of Nashik disruption; adjusted EBITDA +10%, adjusted gross margin +90bps to 57.5%; Greater China +17% operationally; ~$550M returned including ~$270M of buybacks at a $16.42 average; an 8.4% FCF yield; and Phase 3 readouts for selatogrel and cenerimod in 1H 2027. DOWN: strip Greater China and the other 81% of Viatris grew 0.4% in constant currency; management guides three of four regions flat or shrinking and China down to low-double-digit into a hospital procurement reform with no clarity until November; H1 free cash flow grew 2.7%, not 97%; the 2.9x leverage headline is 3.41x charging the ~$600M of cash restructuring; new product revenue is only $172M of a $450-550M target that was HELD; and Nashik is an open FDA matter after a February fire and May Form 483 observations.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $817.9M, UP 10.6%, vs a $870.1M consensus - a 6.0% MISS. Adjusted diluted EPS $0.36 vs a $0.4139 bar - a 13.0% MISS (GAAP diluted EPS was $0.14; the bridge is $0.01 of acquisition costs plus $0.21 of distributor termination fees). Gross margin 48.1% vs 51.5%. But last year's cost of revenue contained a $21.7M Alani Nu inventory step-up: clean the base and the margin decline is 632bps, not 340. Adjusted EBITDA $184.2M, DOWN 12.4%. Stock -18.46% on the print day, then +16.83% the next session on an activist headline.

Celsius Holdings missed on both lines, fell 18.46% to a 52-week low set on the print day, and then rallied 16.83% the very next session - its best day in a year. Nothing about the quarter changed overnight. What changed was a governance headline: Russ Savage, who founded Rockstar Energy and sold it to PepsiCo for over $4 billion, disclosed a 4.7% stake and demanded the CEO's job. Meanwhile the number nobody looked at got worse. Celsius reported a 340 basis point gross margin decline. Last year's cost of revenue contained a $21.7M purchase-accounting inventory step-up - a charge the company itself adds back. Put it back and the base was 54.4%, not 51.5%. The real decline is 632 basis points, nearly double the headline.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $31.50 vs THE $27.77 CLOSE - 25% BELOW WALL STREET, AND ONLY 13% ABOVE THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$31.5 vs ~$27.77 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $31.50 vs the $27.77 Aug 7 close = 13.4% upside. Bull $41, bear $21. Buy under $25. EV $8.83B = 2.9x TTM revenue of $3.05B and 12.3x TTM adjusted EBITDA of $719M (13.9x charging the terminations).

- Street: Buy. 23 analysts, average target $42.22, low $26, high $57. Six cuts in two days: Needham $55 to $35, Stifel $45 to $37, Deutsche Bank $44 to $39, Morgan Stanley $48 to $42, UBS $50 to $44, B. Riley $85 to $56. We are 25% BELOW them.

What to watch: UP: US tracked retail sales for the portfolio +31.0% with a 20.1% dollar share of RTD energy, supplying ~30% of the zero-sugar category's $640M of quarterly growth; Alani Nu revenue $364.4M, +21.0%, with retail sales +55.7% and an 8.7% share sixteen months after acquisition; CELSIUS brand dollars per point of distribution +16% quarter on quarter on ~7% FEWER points; first-half operating cash flow $296.3M vs $147.1M and free cash flow $271.3M vs $131.9M - more than double, AFTER paying $255.3M of distributor terminations in cash; cash $631.2M against $667.9M of long-term debt, so net debt is just $34.7M; $101.4M of stock repurchased in the quarter; and an activist with 4.7% now forcing the board to defend itself. DOWN: revenue missed by 6.0% and adjusted EPS by 13.0%; clean gross margin -632bps against the reported -340; management's own February promise of 'gross margin percentages in the low 50s' for 2026 is two quarters unmet at ~48%; adjusted EBITDA -12.4% on +10.6% revenue with the margin down 590bps to 22.5%; adjusted SG&A ROSE from 28.1% to 28.6% of revenue even as reported SG&A 'improved'; $80.9M of distributor termination fees added back to adjusted; the CELSIUS brand shipped -11.7% and Rockstar retail is -13%; and $1.76B of PepsiCo convertible preferred takes 34% of net income before the common, with its as-converted overhang up from 22.0M to 33.4M shares in twelve months.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $298.5M, UP 18.3%, vs a $295.6M consensus. GAAP diluted EPS $0.66 vs a $0.604 bar - a 9.3% BEAT (Duolingo publishes NO adjusted EPS, so GAAP IS the bar). But total bookings - the cash actually collected - grew only 7.9% to $289.1M, 6% in constant currency. For the first time in Duolingo's public life REVENUE EXCEEDED BOOKINGS, by $9.4M. Guidance was RAISED on every line: FY bookings $1,285M, revenue $1,207M, adjusted EBITDA $320M, gross margin 71.6%.

Duolingo grew revenue 18.3%, beat on earnings, beat its own gross margin guide by 160bps, and RAISED every guidance line it gives - and the stock fell 9.4% the next session, having been down 17.2% intraday. Then it took almost all of it back. Here is what the headline did not say. Duolingo collects subscription cash up front (bookings) and recognises it as revenue over the following twelve months. Bookings grew 7.9%, not 18.3%. And this is the FIRST quarter in the company's public life where revenue was BIGGER than bookings - by $9.4M. The 18% headline is now being paid for out of a deferred balance that has stopped building.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $140 vs THE $130.90 CLOSE - 21% ABOVE WALL STREET, AND STILL NOT ENOUGH ROOM TO BUY) — base-case value ~$140.0 vs ~$130.9 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $140 vs the $130.90 Aug 7 close = 7.0% upside. Bull $224, bear $106. Buy under $112. EV $5.22B = 4.1x 2026 guided bookings of $1,285M and 16.3x guided adjusted EBITDA of $320M - 30.7x charging ~$150M of stock pay. 46x 2026E GAAP EPS of $2.82. Net cash $1.42B = $27.94/share, 21% of the price.

- Street: Hold. 23 analysts (7 buy / 14 hold / 2 sell), average target $115.63, low $80, high $150 - BELOW the price. Post-print: Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan both RAISED to $125; Scotiabank cut to $120; BofA downgraded to Underperform, $93. We are 21% ABOVE the Street and still say HOLD.

What to watch: UP: revenue $298.5M, +18.3%; GAAP diluted EPS $0.66 vs a $0.604 bar, a 9.3% beat; gross margin 72.6% vs a ~71.0% guide and 20bps ABOVE last year, so the AI-cost compression the bears expected did NOT arrive; DAUs +23% to 58.7M and ACCELERATING two points sequentially; MAUs +9.6% to 140.6M; current user retention at an all-time high of 84%; 15.4M lapsed learners revived in one June campaign; every guidance line raised, adjusted EBITDA up $10M to $320M; $1.42B of net cash and no debt; $71.9M of buyback at ~$101.55. DOWN: bookings +7.9% reported and only 6% in constant currency; revenue exceeded bookings for the first time, by $9.4M; bookings per daily active user -12.4%; subscription bookings per paid subscriber -5.5%; in-app purchase revenue -23%; sales and marketing +35.3%; adjusted EBITDA -1.7% and free cash flow -8.9%; the FY bookings guide needs Q4 to accelerate to +12.8% after printing +7.9%; SBC $38.6M is HALF of adjusted EBITDA; and the FY tax rate guide quietly went from 18-20% to 23-25%.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $550.9M, UP 32.5%, a beat vs ~$525M. Adjusted EPS per fully exchanged diluted share $0.33 vs a $0.29 bar - a 13.9% BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS on Class A stock $0.28 vs $0.20 - a different basis, not the bar. Adjusted EBITDA $113.7M, up 27.8%, but margin FELL 76bps to 20.6%. Guidance RAISED: revenue $2.10-2.13B, adjusted EBITDA $385-390M, capex raised to $350-370M. The 8-K was accepted 4:07pm ET Aug 5, AFTER the close; Thursday Aug 6 the stock FELL 18.79% to $53.33, then $53.01 Friday.

Dutch Bros grew revenue 32.5%, beat the bar by 13.9% on the correct fully exchanged basis, and RAISED full-year guidance on revenue, comps and adjusted EBITDA - and the stock fell 18.79% the next session on 4.4x normal volume. Here is what the headline did not say. Company-operated same shop sales grew 8.3%, but 4.9 points of that was TICKET and only 3.4 points was TRANSACTIONS. A year ago the split was 1.9 ticket and 5.9 transactions. Systemwide transaction growth fell from 5.1% to 1.7%. And on the call, CFO Josh Guenser said pricing will contribute LESS THAN ONE PERCENTAGE POINT to ticket growth in the second half after another price increase rolled off in early July.

THE CALL: SELL (2/5, FAIR VALUE $40 vs THE $53.01 CLOSE - AN EXCELLENT BRAND AT A PRICE THAT NEEDS DOUBLE THE BUILD RATE) — base-case value ~$40.0 vs ~$53.01 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: SELL 2/5, fair value $40 vs the $53.01 Aug 7 close = 24.5% DOWNSIDE. Bull $61, bear $15. Buy under $36. EV $9.37B = 24.2x 2026 guided adjusted EBITDA of $387M, or 26.7x including the $973M TRA. 57x 2026E adjusted EPS of $0.93. Free cash flow near zero after $350-370M of capex.

- Street: Buy. 25 analysts (24 buy / 1 hold / 0 sell), average target $77.58, low $68, high $88. D.A. Davidson reiterated $85 on Aug 6. EPS BASIS PROVEN: FY2025 quarters 0.14+0.26+0.19+0.17 = $0.76 = the reported adjusted fully exchanged figure, not the $0.64 GAAP.

What to watch: UP: revenue $550.9M, +32.5%; adjusted EPS $0.33 vs a $0.2896 bar, a 13.9% beat on a flat fully exchanged share count; record company AUV of $2,164K, up 9.2%; shop contribution margin 30.6%; labour cost down 120bps; 48 shops opened, 1,225 total; 13th straight positive comp; guidance RAISED; and on a two-year stack traffic slowed under one point, not three. DOWN: 59% of the comp was ticket against 24% a year ago, and management says pricing adds under one point in H2; systemwide transactions grew just 1.7%, implying franchised traffic is negative; adjusted EBITDA margin FELL 76bps because incremental margin was 18.3%; the capex guide rose $80M against a $50M revenue raise, half of which is 31 Phoenix shops bought for $63.5M; the Salad and Go deal is excluded from guidance; free cash flow rounds to zero; and a $973M tax receivable agreement sits outside every net-cash screen.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

CACI International Inc (CACI) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (3 months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $2.709B, UP 17.6% (organic 11.6%), a beat vs ~$2.695B. Adjusted diluted EPS $8.91 vs a $7.39 bar - a 20.6% BEAT. GAAP diluted EPS $7.05, DOWN 1.3%, even though income from operations rose 31.7% and pretax income rose 24.3%. EBITDA margin 13.0%, up 150bps. FY2027 guided to revenue $10.65-10.85B and adjusted EPS $32.96-33.86, with free cash flow of at least $900M. The 8-K was accepted 4:44pm ET Wednesday Aug 5, AFTER the close; Thursday Aug 6 was the reaction session and the stock rose 21.38% to $628.79, then $644.43 on Friday.

CACI beat the bar by 20.6%, grew revenue 17.6%, and the stock rose 21.38% in one session on four times normal volume. Here is what almost nobody said out loud. Cut the quarter by contract type and half the company did not grow at all: cost-plus-fee revenue, the government services base and 51.5% of the quarter, grew $11.4M on a $1,384.0M base - 0.8%. Fixed-price product work grew $321.6M, up 51.9%. Every dollar of the 17.6% came from product and technology, not services - and that mix shift is also where the 150bps of EBITDA margin came from. CACI's 52-week closing low of $440.76 was set on July 21, twelve trading days before this print.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $600 vs THE $644.43 CLOSE - AN EXCELLENT QUARTER, FULLY PAID FOR IN TWO SESSIONS) — base-case value ~$600.0 vs ~$644.43 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $600 vs the $644.43 Aug 7 close = 6.9% DOWNSIDE. Bull $720, bear $530. Buy under $540. EV $18.95B = 16.1x FY2026 EBITDA of $1.174B and 14.1x our FY2027E $1.34B. Net debt $4.71B, 4.0x. FY2027 guided FCF $900M = a 6.3% yield. FY2027 adjusted EPS midpoint $33.41 = 19.3x. Peers: LDOS 10.1x, BAH 10.2x, SAIC 10.8x EV/EBITDA.

- Street: Buy. 29 analysts (20 buy / 9 hold / 0 sell), average target $686.20, low $510, high $892 (Stifel Nicolaus, Aug 6, 2026). That average implies +6.5%; our $600 implies -6.9%. EPS BASIS PROVEN: the four FY2026 quarters 6.85+6.81+7.27+8.91 = $29.84 = the reported adjusted $29.83, not the $24.16 GAAP - so the $8.91 vs $7.39 beat is apples to apples.

What to watch: UP: revenue $2.709B, +17.6% with 11.6% organic; adjusted diluted EPS $8.91 against a $7.39 bar; EBITDA $353.1M at a 13.0% margin, up 150bps; income from operations +31.7% and pretax income +24.3%; fixed-price revenue +51.9%, still ~+29.7% organically after stripping out ARKA; Technology revenue +23.7%; funded backlog +28.6% to $5.4B, half the FY2027 guide; total backlog $32.0B; FY2026 awards $10.245B at a 1.1x book-to-bill; FY2027 guided to at least $900M of free cash flow, a 6.3% yield; and net leverage back to the low threes by June 2027, a quarter early. DOWN: cost-plus-fee revenue, 51.5% of the quarter, grew just 0.8%; guided FY2027 organic growth of 6.1-8.2% is flat against the 7.2% just delivered, so the acceleration from 10.9% to 12.4% is entirely ARKA annualising; 50.8% of the 66% free cash flow jump was a $172.4M deferred-tax swing, not operations; net leverage 4.0x, up from 2.9x, after $4.33B of acquisitions in two years; Q4 awards fell 37.7% to a 0.61x book-to-bill; Q1 FY2027 organic growth is guided to low single digits; and the stock repriced 24.4% in two sessions.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Sysco Corporation (SYY) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (13 weeks ended June 27, 2026): sales $22.124B, UP 4.7%, a beat vs ~$21.95B. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.53 vs a $1.51 bar - a 2-cent BEAT. GAAP EPS $1.15. GAAP operating income +10.6% to $983M, but ADJUSTED operating income +4.1% and pretax earnings only +0.4%. FY2027 guided to 6-7% sales growth and 9-11% adjusted EPS growth ON A 53-WEEK BASIS. The 8-K was accepted 8:04am ET Tuesday Aug 4, before the open; the stock closed that reaction session down 2.58% at $82.79 and the week at $84.29.

Sysco beat on revenue, beat on earnings, and guided FY2027 adjusted EPS up 9-11% - above the $4.96 consensus - and the stock fell 2.58% in the reaction session. Here is what the tape saw. The guide is explicitly on a 53-WEEK basis. FY2026 sales of $84.553B over 52 weeks is $1,626M a week; grown ~4%, the extra week is ~$1,691M of sales, worth about $0.12 of EPS after tax. The guide midpoint of $5.07 beats consensus by $0.11. The entire raise is one extra week on the calendar. Strip the week and the ~$100M AI cost-out ($0.16) out of the $0.46 of guided growth and the business itself is guided to grow 3.9% - against 3.4% last year.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $79 vs THE $84.29 CLOSE - A GOOD QUARTER, A GUIDE THAT IS MOSTLY A 53RD WEEK) — base-case value ~$79.0 vs ~$84.29 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $79 vs the $84.29 Aug 7 close = 6.3% DOWNSIDE. Bull $98, bear $68. Buy under $71. EV $52.24B = 11.9x FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.39B. Net debt $11.73B, 2.7x. FCF $2.11B, a 5.2% yield. FY2027 guide midpoint $5.07 = 16.6x.

- Street: Buy. 30 analysts (18 buy / 9 hold / 3 sell), average target $89.60, median $85, low $84, high $100. Around the print: UBS Buy $95 (Aug 4, from $90), Citigroup NEUTRAL $86 (Aug 5, from $82), Guggenheim $89 (from $87).

What to watch: UP: sales $22.124B, +4.7%, a beat; adjusted diluted EPS $1.53 vs a $1.51 bar; U.S. Foodservice case volume +2.5% and local cases +2.6% in a soft restaurant market; free cash flow $2,114M, +16.3%, a 5.2% yield on a $40.5B market cap; operating cash flow $2,638M, +5.1%; International Foodservice adjusted operating income +15.7% to $228M, an eleventh straight double-digit quarter; a $2.17 dividend yielding 2.6% and covered more than twice; ~$100M of AI-enabled cost-outs identified for FY2027; and $250M of committed Jetro Restaurant Depot synergies still to come. DOWN: the whole guidance raise versus consensus is a 53rd week; U.S. Foodservice is 70% of sales and grew adjusted operating income from $1,058M to $1,059M, +0.1%, with gross margin down 26bps and adjusted opex up 4.7% on sales up 4.4%; FY2026 adjusted operating margin fell 6bps to 4.27%; 58% of FY2026 adjusted EPS growth was the share count ($0.09 of the $0.15) and buybacks fell from $1,250M to $200M with shares OUTSTANDING actually rising; 91.5M new shares are coming for Jetro; interest expense +12.9% to $717M before ~$21B of new deal debt arrives; and the stock fell 15.3% the day the $29.1B Jetro deal was announced.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Viasat, Inc. (VSAT) Q1 FY2027 — Q1 FY2027 (three months ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,156.5M, DOWN 1.2%, a miss vs ~$1,199.7M. Non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 vs a $0.09 bar - an 8-cent BEAT. GAAP EPS $(0.38). Adjusted EBITDA $381.1M, DOWN 6.7%. Backlog a RECORD $4,217.7M, +18.9%. Net leverage 3.2x from 3.6x. FY2027 capex guided $950M-$1.0B against $992.8M spent last year - FLAT. The 8-K was accepted 4:24pm ET Tuesday Aug 4; the stock closed the Aug 5 reaction session down 5.9% at $81.03 and the week at $80.38.

Viasat beat the non-GAAP bar by eight cents, printed a record backlog, and cut net leverage from 3.6x to 3.2x - and the stock fell 5.9% in the reaction session. It has still tripled in a year, from $25.55 to $80.38. Here is what the tape saw. The entire re-rating rests on a post-ViaSat-3 capex cliff, and management guided FY2027 capex at $950M-$1.0B against the $992.8M spent in FY2026. That is FLAT. Free cash flow is guided flat too, ~$180M ex-Ligado versus ~$177M underlying last year - a 1.6% yield on an $11.07B market cap. And guided capex is already only 1.04x the $935M depreciation run-rate, so there is nothing left to cut without shrinking the fleet.

THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, FAIR VALUE $68 vs THE $80.38 CLOSE - THE DELEVERAGING IS REAL, THE CAPEX CLIFF IS NOT IN THE GUIDE) — base-case value ~$68.0 vs ~$80.38 today.

KEY METRICS:

- CALL: HOLD 3/5, fair value $68 vs the $80.38 Aug 7 close = 15.4% DOWNSIDE. Bull $112, bear $36. Buy under $58. EV $15.91B = 10.3x FY2027E adjusted EBITDA of $1.55B. Net debt $4.83B, net leverage 3.2x. FY2027E FCF $180M, a 1.6% yield. Consensus adjusted EPS $0.30 = 268x.

- Street: Buy. S&P Global 11 analysts (6 strong buy / 3 buy / 2 hold / 0 sell), average target $97.04, median $101, LOW $49, HIGH $140 (Aug 6) - a 2.9x spread. Around the print: JPMorgan Buy $130, Needham $90 to $105, Morgan Stanley Hold $51.

What to watch: UP: non-GAAP diluted EPS $0.17 vs a $0.09 bar, an 8-cent beat, with the GAAP $(0.38) loss bridged entirely by non-cash items; backlog a RECORD $4,217.7M, +18.9%, with Defense backlog +32% to a record $1,402M on a 1.6x book-to-bill; net debt down $729M to $4,834.7M and net leverage 3.2x from 3.6x; net interest down 22.3% to $66.9M; aviation revenue +10.8% with aircraft in service +10% to ~4,530; government satcom +10.4%; tactical networking +35.6%; and 100+ MHz of L- and S-band MSS spectrum behind the Equatys venture with Space42. DOWN: revenue $1,156.5M, -1.2% and a ~$43M miss; adjusted EBITDA $381.1M, -6.7%; Defense adjusted EBITDA -19.7%; fixed services and other -27.1%; maritime -7.0% with vessels down from ~13,900 to ~12,900; FY2027 capex guided $950M-$1.0B versus $992.8M spent last year, so the cliff is not in the guide; free cash flow guided ~$180M, a 1.6% yield; guided capex is only 1.04x the $935M depreciation run-rate; and ~$3.9B of debt falls due in 2029.

Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha

DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.