Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

By Colton ThomasBusinessInvesting
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Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia episodes

  • Ascendis Pharma (ASND) Q2 2026: EUR 2.83 Headline, EUR 0.90 Reality
    Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q2 2026 — Quarter ended June 30, reported before the open on August 13: revenue EUR 339.3M (+115%), product revenue EUR 314.9M (+105%), IFRS diluted EPS EUR 2.83 but non-IFRS EUR 0.90 against a EUR 1.80 bar. The stock fell 3.61% to $246.23.
    Three earnings numbers came out of one quarter: EUR 2.83 in the headlines, EUR 0.90 in the company's own reconciliation, EUR 1.80 in the Street's model. In between sits an FDA voucher sold back in May.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, EUR 158.1M OF THE PROFIT WAS A VOUCHER SALE) — base-case value ~$212.0 vs ~$246.23 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$212 against the $246.23 close on August 13, about 14% below - that is EUR 184 at EURUSD 1.15649. Wall Street is 23 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, average target $302.90, median $313, range $255-333; the most recent dateable action is Morgan Stanley maintaining Overweight on July 23, 2026. We use the Street's own revenue path through 2028 and will not underwrite a 34% operating margin here. Bull $295, bear $147.
    - THE QUARTER AS FILED, IN EUR: total revenue 339.285M (+115%); product revenue 314.910M (+105%) - YORVIPATH 252.114M, SKYTROFA 55.214M, YUVIWEL 7.582M; milestones 17.046M against nil last year. Gross profit 311.627M, margin 91.8%. R&D 75.888M, SG&A 173.341M. IFRS operating profit 220.465M; IFRS EPS basic 3.22, diluted 2.83. Non-IFRS operating profit 92.006M (27.1%); non-IFRS diluted EPS 0.90. US 265.471M, Europe 49.671M, rest 24.143M.
    - WHAT DROVE THE HEADLINE: other operating income of EUR 158.067M - net proceeds of selling the Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher awarded on the February 27 YUVIWEL approval, agreed May 6 for $187.5M and collected in Q2. That is 71.7% of IFRS operating profit and EUR 2.31 of pre-tax income per diluted share, and it was public fourteen weeks before the print. The company's own bridge from 2.83 to 0.90 totals EUR 2.13 a share.
    - THE BAR, NOT THE HEADLINE: on the company's own non-IFRS basis Ascendis delivered EUR 0.90 against a EUR 1.80 consensus - a 50% miss, which is why the shares fell 3.61%. Feeds carrying 3.29 vs 1.71 are wrong on both sides: 3.29 is in no filing, and 387.5M revenue is the filed EUR 339.285M converted to USD at 1.142. Ex-milestones revenue was EUR 322.2M against a bar near EUR 326M. ADSs were retired April 20, 2026 - these are ordinary shares.
    - BALANCE SHEET AND CASH: Q2 operating cash flow EUR 281.682M, about EUR 123.6M excluding the voucher, against EUR 7.342M consumed a year earlier. Cash EUR 812.260M from 616.041M. All $575M of 2.25% convertible notes converted May 6 into 3,635,813 shares, settling EUR 719.4M of liabilities. No bank or convertible debt: EUR 301.789M owed to Royalty Pharma plus EUR 148.285M of leases. Equity EUR 1,436.5M from minus 162.8M. No 2026 guidance was issued.
    What to watch: UP: selling and admin spend falling below 45% of revenue, from 51% this quarter. DOWN: the November 11 print missing the second half the Street needs - EUR 1,354M for 2026 against EUR 585.9M banked.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • Birkenstock (BIRK) Q3 FY2026: They Raised Guidance, Then Sold $1 Billion Of Stock
    Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) Q3 FY2026 — Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue EUR 719.5M, up 13% reported and 15% in constant currency. Adjusted EPS EUR 0.74, up 19%; IFRS EPS EUR 0.60, down 13%. FY2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance RAISED; adjusted EPS guidance left UNCHANGED at EUR 1.90-2.05. Stock +11.6% to $41.00 on the reaction session; the L Catterton secondary then priced at $39.35.
    Birkenstock beat and raised fiscal 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance before the open on August 13. The shares gapped 17.2%. Eleven hours later L Catterton filed to sell $1.0 billion of stock - 25.5 million shares, 14.1% of the company - and it priced overnight at $39.35. Birkenstock is buying up to $500M of that block with money it borrowed in June at 4.500%.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, GUIDANCE RAISED AT 6AM, $1B BLOCK LAUNCHED AT 4:52PM) — base-case value ~$34.54 vs ~$41.0 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value ~$34.54 (EUR 29.95 at 1.1529) against the $41.00 close on August 13, about 16% below, and 12% below the $39.35 the secondary priced at. Wall Street is 13 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell, average target $48.72, median $51, range $41-55; the last month's two targets average $47.00. We differ on method: the Street prices constant-currency growth, we price the cash the owner keeps. Bull $56.46, base $34.93, bear $19.26.
    - THE QUARTER: revenue EUR 719.5M, up 13% reported and 15% constant currency, at the high end of the company's 13-15% target. Gross profit EUR 424.9M, margin 59.1% from 60.5% - tariffs 70bp, currency 60bp, Australian distributor 20bp, partly offset by capacity absorption. Adjusted EBITDA EUR 242.5M, up 11.1%, margin 33.7% from 34.4%. Profit from operations EUR 203.1M, up only 2.6% on revenue up 13%. Capex EUR 26.2M; 13 new stores to 124.
    - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN NOT ASSUMED: the filed figures are IFRS EPS EUR 0.60 (down 13% from EUR 0.69) and adjusted EPS EUR 0.74 (up 19% from EUR 0.62), on 181,476,635 weighted diluted shares. The EUR 22.3M gap is non-cash finance charges - EUR 10.6M fair-value loss on the buyback contract, EUR 11.7M on derecognising the old notes - plus a EUR 13M FX swing. Dollar EPS figures near $0.86 circulating in data feeds are conversions, in no filing.
    - THE GUIDANCE TELL: FY2026 revenue growth raised to 15% constant currency, landing at the high end of EUR 2,300-2,350M. Adjusted EBITDA raised to at least EUR 710M, margin 30.2-30.5% from 30.0-30.5%. But adjusted EPS guidance was left UNCHANGED at EUR 1.90-2.05 - after an accelerated repurchase retired 6 million shares, roughly 3.2% of the count. The tax rate guide went from 26-28% to 30-31%, and net leverage from 1.3-1.4x to 1.6-1.7x.
    - THE CASH: fiscal 2025 owner earnings were about EUR 235M (operating cash flow EUR 373M less capex EUR 87M less lease payments EUR 52M). Fiscal 2026 lands near EUR 238M on the same definition - roughly flat, while revenue grew about 30% across the two years. Nine-month inventories rose EUR 139M and receivables EUR 123M; income tax paid ran EUR 34M ahead of the charge. Net debt EUR 1,227M from EUR 997M; net leverage 1.8x from 1.5x.
    What to watch: UP: full-year operating cash flow in the December accounts landing well above the EUR 373M of fiscal 2025, which would show the working-capital build easing and put owner earnings near EUR 300M - our base case. DOWN: another year of revenue compounding while owner earnings sit flat near EUR 240M, plus further sponsor selling into strength.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    14 min
  • Performance Food Group (PFGC) Q4 FY2026: The Mix Shift Worked, The Shareholder Didn’t
    Performance Food Group Company (PFGC) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 27, 2026): net sales $18,028.9M, up 6.4% and about $80M light. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.59 vs a $1.60 bar, up 2.6%. GAAP diluted EPS $1.03, up 22.6%. Adjusted EBITDA $587.5M, up 7.4%. FY26 free cash flow $1,029.6M. Stock -8.32% across the two sessions after the print, to $104.48.
    PFG sold 3.5% more cases, turned them into 8.3% more gross profit, and grew adjusted EPS 2.6%. For the full year: adjusted EBITDA +9.2%, adjusted EPS +1.6%. The mix shift into independent restaurants is real and it is working. Almost none of it reached the owner, because depreciation rose 19.0% and interest 15.4% - together +17.4% against EBITDA growth of 9.2%.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, EBITDA GREW 9.2%, ADJUSTED EPS GREW 1.6%) — base-case value ~$82.0 vs ~$104.48 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value ~$82 against the $104.48 close on August 13, about 22% below. Wall Street is 23 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, with targets averaging $132 over the last 30 days (2 targets), $129.75 over the quarter and $120.07 over the year. We differ on method, not facts: the Street prices PFG off EBITDA, we price the cash left after depreciation and interest. Bull $119, bear $53.
    - THE QUARTER: net sales $18,028.9M, +6.4%, about $80M under the $18,109M consensus. Gross profit $2,168.8M, +8.3%, margin +21bp to 12.03%. Operating expenses $1,845.0M, +6.4%. Adjusted EBITDA $587.5M, +7.4%. GAAP net income $162.3M, +23.4%. Adjusted diluted EPS $1.59 vs a $1.60 bar, +2.6%; GAAP diluted EPS $1.03, +22.6%. Total cases +3.5%, organic +1.8%, independent +8.0%, organic independent +5.8%. Product cost inflation 4.7%.
    - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN NOT ASSUMED: the four FY2026 adjusted quarters of $1.18, $0.98, $0.80 and $1.59 sum to the reported full-year $4.55. The GAAP quarters $0.60, $0.39, $0.27 and $1.03 sum to the reported $2.29. Both the actual and the $1.60 estimate sit on the adjusted basis, so the one-cent shortfall is genuinely like-for-like. The $0.56 bridge is amortisation $0.45, LIFO $0.19, stock comp $0.08, deal costs $0.04, other $0.01, less tax $0.21. No discontinued operations.
    - WHERE THE LEVERAGE WENT: company gross profit per case +4.6% against operating expense per case +2.8% - real leverage. But in Foodservice, the segment that owns the independent franchise, gross profit per case grew 3.6% against cost per case of 5.6%, and segment adjusted EBITDA rose just 2.2% to $395.5M. Convenience, the nicotine business nobody underwrites, delivered +10.4% to $132.5M. Specialty fell 0.5% to $92.7M.
    - THE LINE BELOW EBITDA: FY2026 depreciation $541.9M, +19.0%; interest expense $413.7M, +15.4%; the two together $955.6M, +17.4%, against adjusted EBITDA growth of 9.2%. Capex fell 24% to $384.1M while finance-lease obligations grew $200.8M net to $1,802.6M and $241.6M of lease principal was repaid through financing. Free cash flow of $1,029.6M vs $704.1M becomes $778.4M of owner earnings, $726.1M once $52.3M of one-off tax refunds is stripped.
    What to watch: UP: a quarter in which Foodservice operating expense grows more slowly than Foodservice gross profit - the release prints both figures every quarter, one paragraph apart. DOWN: FY2027 sales landing inside the guide while adjusted EPS again lags EBITDA, which would confirm the depreciation-and-interest drag is structural rather than a Cheney Brothers hangover.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Amcor (AMCR) Q4 FY2026: The Growth Was Bought, Not Earned
    Amcor plc (AMCR) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 FY2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): net sales $6,398M, up 26% and $344M ahead. Adjusted EPS $1.23 vs a $1.19 bar, up 23%. GAAP EPS $0.83. Adjusted EBIT $836M. FY26 free cash flow $1,303M. Stock -1.77% to $46.56.
    Amcor beat on both lines and grew adjusted EPS 23%, and the stock opened higher then sold off all session. Its own growth bridge says why: of the 26% rise in sales, 19 points were the Berry acquisition, 6 were raw-material pass-through and 2 were currency, leaving organic sales at MINUS 1% with volume flat.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A REAL BEAT WITH NO GROWTH UNDERNEATH IT) — base-case value ~$45.0 vs ~$46.38 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value ~$45.00 vs the $46.38 close, 3% below - we are close to Wall Street on PRICE and far apart on the REASON. Consensus is a Buy at a $48.18 target, under 4% of upside. What holds this share price up is a 5.6% dividend covered just 1.08x by reported cash flow, not growth. We model $4.10 of forward EPS against the Street's $4.59, about 11% lower.
    - THE GROWTH BRIDGE, FROM AMCOR'S OWN TABLE: net sales +26% is +19 points of acquisitions net of divestitures (~$962M of Berry), +6 points of raw-material pass-through (~$280M, which carries essentially no margin), +2 points of currency, and ORGANIC -1%. Volume was flat, price/mix -1%. For the full year: organic -2%, volume -2%. Two straight years without underlying growth.
    - SYNERGIES AND CURRENCY WERE WORTH MORE THAN THE GROWTH: Berry synergy in adjusted EBIT ran $33M, $50M, $57M and $100M by quarter - exactly the $240M the full year reports. Taxed at the 16.8% rate Amcor paid, over 463.8M diluted shares, that is $0.43 a share. Currency added ~$0.11 (13% reported EPS growth, 10% constant currency). Actual growth was $0.46, $3.56 to $4.02.
    - THE GUIDE NOBODY READ: Amcor is moving its year end from June 30 to December 31, so instead of a full year it guided a six-month Transition Period, July-December 2026, at $1.80-$1.90. The same six months a year earlier earned $1.83. That is -1.6% to +3.8%, about +1% at the midpoint - right after a +23% quarter. Berry closed April 30, 2025, so the comparison is clean.
    - CASH, DIVIDEND AND DEBT: FY26 free cash flow was $1,303M against guidance of $1.8-1.9B in November, cut to $1.5-1.6B in May. The first nine months generated MINUS $93M - the whole year arrived in the June quarter on an $849M working-capital release. Dividends paid were $1,195M, 92% of it. Net debt is $12,897M and leverage is guided HIGHER, to 3.5x-3.6x, by December.
    What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of positive organic volume, which would give the remaining ~$410M of Berry synergies something to compound against. DOWN: a December leverage print above the guided 3.5x-3.6x while the dividend still runs at 92% of free cash flow.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    15 min
  • Pan American Silver (PAAS) Q2 2026: The Miss Was A Tax Bill
    Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $1,124M, up 38.4%. Net earnings $305M. Basic adjusted EPS $0.73 vs an $0.84 bar. Attributable free cash flow $344M vs $488M in Q1. Stock -9.70% to $47.30 on 9.35M shares, 2.47x its 20-day norm.
    Pan American Silver earned 73 cents against an 84-cent bar and fell 9.70% to $47.30. Every headline calls this a silver miner missing estimates. Nine cents of the eleven-cent shortfall is the tax line, the operating shortfall is gold rather than silver, and realised silver fell 20.6% sequentially to $70.97.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, PRICED FOR SILVER THE COMPANY WON'T UNDERWRITE) — base-case value ~$37.9 vs ~$47.3 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value ~$37.90 vs the $47.30 Aug 13 close, 20% below. We anchor on REPORTED attributable free cash flow, not an AISC build-up - AISC already includes sustaining capital, so deducting it again double-counts. Q2 FCF of $344M annualises to $1,376M; +$210M cash tax, +$71M gold volume, less $248M project capital gives $1,409M. At 13x plus $959M net cash over 417.07M shares: Q2 deck $46.22, spot $43.82, management's deck $35.78, reversion $20.80. Even the BULL deck lands under the close.
    - THE MISS IS A TAX MISS: pre-tax earnings were $484M, down 24% from Q1's $641M, but the tax charge barely moved - $185M became $179M. The effective rate went 19.2% (Q2 2025) to 28.9% (Q1 2026) to 37.0%. Run this quarter at Q1's rate and net earnings are $344M, about $0.81 a share against the $0.84 bar - a 3% miss, not 13%. $0.09 of the $0.11 shortfall is tax alone.
    - IT IS A GOLD COMPANY: gold is 57.6% of attributable revenue ($730M), silver only 36.2% ($459M). Each metal's attributable production at its own realised price sums to $1,268M - the reported attributable revenue exactly. Silver production printed 6,469 koz, the HIGH end of guidance; gold printed 165.9 koz, BELOW it. FY gold guidance moved to the low end of 700-750 koz and gold AISC to the high end of $1,700-1,850.
    - SILVER FELL INTO THIS PRINT: realised silver was $89.43/oz in Q1 and $70.97/oz in Q2, down 20.6%. Silver Segment AISC went $6.63 to $17.80 as by-product credits collapsed. Per-ounce silver margin fell from $82.80 to $53.17, down 35.8%, on slightly higher production. Attributable free cash flow went $488M to $344M. Management's own stated H2 planning deck is $60 silver and $4,000 gold.
    - THE INVERSION: market cap $19,728M on the 417,074,000 shares the release counts (the feeds publish $19,930M and have not caught the buyback), less $959M net cash, is $18,769M of enterprise value - about 14x trailing earnings and 17x the free cash flow this business makes at management's own price deck. Hold gold at $4,000 and solve for the silver price that justifies $47.30 and you get about $73/oz sustained, 22% above management's own figure.
    What to watch: UP: silver sustained above $80/oz; Jacobina and El Penon stabilising in Q3; La Colorada Skarn ahead of schedule. DOWN: silver toward $45-55; a third straight quarter of falling attributable free cash flow; further gold guidance cuts.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    16 min
  • Erasca (ERAS) Q2 2026: Positive Data. The Stock Fell 48%.
    Erasca, Inc. (ERAS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): no revenue. R&D $35.900M vs $21.170M; G&A $11.719M vs $9.455M; operating expenses $47.619M. Net loss $44.079M vs $33.876M. Loss per share $(0.14) vs a $(0.111) bar. Stock +1.47% to $18.58.
    Erasca lost 14 cents a share against an 11-cent bar and the stock still rose 1.47% to $18.58. The print is not the story. On April 27 Erasca published Phase 1 data it called positive, and the next session the stock fell 48.3%, from $19.15 to $9.90. Inside that release were a treatment-related death and a patent claim from the company whose drug it benchmarked against.
    THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, A PHASE 1 ASSET PRICED AT PHASE 3 ODDS) — base-case value ~$5.7 vs ~$18.58 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 4/5. Fair value ~$5.70 vs the $18.58 Aug 12 close, 69% below. No revenue, so we price each asset as peak sales x probability: ERAS-0015 at $4.0B peak and a 22% chance of approval is $1,647M; ERAS-4001 at 10% adds $202M; discovery at 3% adds $23M; less 15% for the patent claim leaves $1,625M.
    - THE INVERSION: market cap $6,499M less $978M pro forma cash is $5,521M of enterprise value. Add back unfunded development and the market pays about $5,950M for the pipeline, 3.7x what our weights produce. That implies roughly an 80% chance ERAS-0015 is approved. Oncology assets entering Phase 1 historically convert near 5%; Phase 3 assets near 65%.
    - THE APRIL SESSION: the stock closed $19.15 on data day and $9.90 the next session, down 48.3% on 51.3M shares. The release disclosed a Grade 3 pneumonitis that progressed to Grade 5 in a 66-year-old pancreatic cancer patient at 24 mg, and a April 24 letter from Revolution Medicines. A securities class action followed on June 10.
    - THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE HEADLINE: every response rate is a uORR, confirmed and unconfirmed pooled. 62% in 2L+ KRAS G12X NSCLC (N=37), 75% post-platinum (N=16), 40% in 2L PDAC (N=20). The July headline of 57% in pancreatic cancer had a denominator of SEVEN patients. The lung figures pool two trials with different cut-off dates.
    - BALANCE SHEET: cash and marketable securities $384.3M at June 30, plus $593.5M net from the July offering is about $977.8M pro forma. No debt. But the release names no runway year, only a list of milestones, and every one of those milestones is a trial starting rather than finishing. Shares went 284.2M at Dec 31 to 349.8M at Aug 4.
    What to watch: UP: confirmed response rates at a defined dose in the H1 2027 AURORAS-1 expansion readout; strong first ERAS-4001 data in H2 2026; the Revolution Medicines claim resolved or licensed cheaply. DOWN: unconfirmed responses failing to confirm; further safety events; an adverse patent or trade-secret outcome; another equity raise below $17.50.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    13 min
  • SELLAS (SLS) Q2 2026: EPS Improved 29%. The Loss Got 46% Worse.
    SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. (SLS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): no revenue. R&D $6.272M vs $3.871M; G&A $4.357M vs $3.002M; operating expenses $10.629M. Net loss $9.605M vs $6.601M, 46% worse. Loss per share $(0.05) vs a $(0.045) bar and $(0.07) a year ago, on 189,183,620 weighted shares vs 98,558,567. Cash $138.343M. AMC print Aug 11, so Aug 12 was the reaction: close $11.77, up 6.52%.
    SELLAS lost 5 cents a share against a 4.5-cent bar, better than the 7 cents a year ago, and the stock rose 6.52%. But the net loss did not shrink - it went from $6.601M to $9.605M, 46% worse. The whole per-share improvement is 90.6 million extra shares, every one from a warrant exercised at a $1.70 average while the stock traded $10-$15. There is no revenue line. This is a $2.38 billion bet on one Phase 3 trial, REGAL, whose readout is triggered by a death count, not a date.
    THE CALL: AVOID (4/5, A BINARY TRIAL PRICED LIKE A BUSINESS) — base-case value ~$6.4 vs ~$11.77 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 4/5. Fair value ~$6.40 vs the $11.77 Aug 12 close, 45.6% below. No revenue and no free cash flow, so this is a two-state model, not a DCF. If REGAL wins: GPS at $650M peak sales ex-Greater China at 4.9x, plus SLS009 at 25%, plus $60M of China milestones, plus cash = $16.20. If REGAL misses: cash plus SLS009 at 12% = $1.15. At a 35% base rate that weights to $6.42.
    - THE DENOMINATOR DID THE WORK: net loss went $6.601M to $9.605M, worse by 46%. Loss per share went $(0.07) to $(0.05), better by 29%. Weighted shares went 98,558,567 to 189,183,620, up 92%. Divide this quarter's loss by last year's share count and it prints $(0.097) - a 45% deterioration, not a 29% improvement.
    - WHERE THE CASH CAME FROM: financing supplied $82.918M in the half; operations CONSUMED $16.434M. All $82.918M was warrant exercises - 48.77M warrants at a $1.70 weighted average strike while the stock traded $10-$15. Only 9.712M warrants survive, at $1.69, worth another $16.4M. Shares outstanding: 153.1M at Dec 31, 201.9M at Jun 30.
    - MARKET CAP IS NOT $2.19B: the feeds publish a float-only $2,190M. The 10-Q cover counts 201,945,709 shares at Aug 10; at $11.77 that is $2,377M, so the feeds are $187M short. No debt, so enterprise value is ~$2,239M against $138.3M of cash - about 17x cash and 17x the $137.7M of book equity.
    - THE CATALYST IS A DEATH COUNT: REGAL's final analysis triggers at 80 events (deaths). The interim triggered at 60 in Dec 2024 and the committee said continue. The 10-Q puts the CRO's pooled count at 78 as of May 11, 2026 - about 1.06 events a month, implying the 80th near early July. It had not been announced by mid-August.
    What to watch: UP: the 80th REGAL event announced and a significant survival benefit at the final analysis; a pre-readout GPS partnership. DOWN: REGAL missing, which takes GPS to zero; drawing the $150M ATM before the readout; SLS009 enrolment slipping past 28 of 80.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Axsome (AXSM) Q2 2026: 96 Cents Of Selling Cost Per Dollar Sold
    Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): a GAAP loss of $(0.99) per share against a $(0.89) bar - an 11% MISS - on total revenue of $218.4M, up 45.5% but below the $221.1M estimate. A double miss. The 8-K was EDGAR-accepted at 7:05 a.m. Eastern on Aug 10, so Aug 10 IS the reaction: $212.74 to $220.89, UP 3.83% on 1.4M shares against a ~700k average. It has since given the move back, closing $214.66 on Aug 12.
    Axsome missed on earnings and missed on revenue, and the stock closed UP 3.8% on double the normal volume. The market was not reading the income statement. One expense line moved: SG&A went from $130.3M to $208.1M, up 59.8%, while revenue grew only $68.3M - so the cost line grew $9.6M MORE than the revenue line in a quarter where revenue rose 46%. Axsome now spends 96 cents of selling cost for every dollar of product it sells.
    THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, THE DRUGS WORK - THE MARGIN INFLECTION HAS NOT STARTED) — base-case value ~$180.0 vs ~$214.66 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value $180 vs the $214.66 close of Aug 12 - about 16% BELOW the tape, and far under the Street's $274.59 average. Owner-earnings DCF does not apply: Axsome has NEVER produced positive free cash flow. Method is path-to-profitability plus a reverse-DCF, probability-weighted: 35% the margin inflection lands on the Street's timetable ($267), 45% it slips ~2 years ($159), 20% the Alzheimer's launch disappoints ($75). Weighted: $180.
    - THE ANGLE - THE COST LINE IS THE WHOLE QUARTER: revenue grew $68.3M year on year; SG&A grew $77.9M, to $208.1M against $216.4M of net product revenue - 96.2 cents of selling cost per dollar sold. R&D actually FELL 6.7% to $46.2M. Every other line was flat. Sequentially SG&A ran $185.0M to $208.1M, up 12.5%. FY2025 SG&A was $570.6M in total; this ONE quarter is 36.5% of it, and annualises to $832M.
    - THE FLOAT - WHY CASH LOOKS FINE: cash fell just $3.1M ($322.9M to $319.9M) across a half-year with a $115.9M net loss. Operating activities used $53.7M. The gap was filled by $51.9M of employee option exercises and ESPP, $19.8M from the ATM, and a $54.4M rise in accrued rebates ($150.2M to $204.6M) - now 95% of one quarter's net product sales. DSO stretched ~105 to ~116 days.
    - THE PRINT: total revenue $218.4M +45.5% ($216.4M of it product). Auvelity $180.3M +51%; Sunosi $35.8M +20%; Symbravo $2.3M. Gross margin 93.7%. Operating loss $(49.6)M, margin -22.7%. Net loss $(51.3)M, $(0.99)/sh; SBC $27.1M was 52.8% of it. Cash $319.9M vs $190M of Blackstone debt ($70M current). Guidance in full: 'sufficient to fund operations into cash flow positivity' - no date.
    What to watch: UP: Q3 SG&A printing FLAT against this quarter's $208.1M; the +126% new-to-brand Alzheimer's signal converting into revenue; quarterly revenue crossing $242M, which is cash breakeven at a frozen cost base. DOWN: SG&A above $225M in November; the $204.6M gross-to-net accrual outgrowing revenue again; the remaining $90M Blackstone term loan being drawn.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Alcon (ALC) Q2 2026: A $402M Write-Off And A Lens Line Growing 1%
    Alcon Inc. (ALC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): core diluted EPS $0.84 against a $0.77 bar, a 9.1% beat, on net sales of $2,782M, up 8% reported and 7% constant currency. IFRS diluted EPS was $0.00 after a $402M PowerVision write-off. Full-year core EPS growth guidance was RAISED to +12% to +15%. An AMC print on Aug 10, so Aug 11 was the reaction: $75.35, up 2.34%. Aug 12 handed all of it back, to $73.58.
    Every headline read the same way: beat, raise, stock up. Almost nobody opened the segment table. Alcon grew net sales 8% - and Equipment, up 25% constant currency, plus eye drops, up 12%, delivered 55% of every dollar of that growth from just 27% of the revenue. Implantables, the premium intraocular lenses the whole multiple is built on, grew 1%. Surgical contribution margin FELL. Vision Care carried the quarter.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A CASH MACHINE WITH A STALLED CROWN JEWEL) — base-case value ~$80.52 vs ~$73.58 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Owner-earnings DCF fair value $80.52 vs the $73.58 close of Aug 12 - about 9% ABOVE the tape, between the Street's $76 average and $82 median. Method: 2026E free cash flow $1,764M (H1 $693M; 2025's second half carried 60.7% of the year) less $180M share-based pay = $1,584M owner earnings, grown 8% fading to 3.5% over ten years, terminal 2.5%, at a 7.5% discount rate, less $3,248M net debt, over 488.7M shares. Cross-check 22.7x 2026E core EPS $3.54. Bull $101, bear $61.
    - THE ANGLE - THE RAZOR SOLD, THE BLADE DID NOT: net sales grew $205M year on year. Equipment/other contributed $57M (+25% cc on a $279M base) and Ocular health $56M (+12% cc on $486M) - 55.1% of all growth from 27.5% of revenue. Implantables contributed $10M, 4.9% of growth, +1% cc on $466M, with the release naming competitive pressures. FY2025 implantables: $1,782M, 0% cc. Eighteen months flat in the highest-margin line Alcon sells.
    - THE PRINT: net sales $2,782M +8% (+7% cc). Surgical $1,570M and Vision Care $1,212M, both +7% cc. Core operating income $574M +17%, core margin 20.6% vs 19.1%. Core gross margin 64.7% vs 62.2%. Core diluted EPS $0.84 +11%. IFRS operating income $11M, margin 0.4% vs 9.6%; IFRS diluted EPS $0.00. R&D $663M vs $245M. Core adjustments $563M: $402M PowerVision, $128M amortisation, $33M efficiency. Tax was a $46M BENEFIT.
    - SEGMENT PROFIT AND CASH: Surgical contribution $392M on $1,570M - a 25.0% margin, DOWN from 26.0% on revenue up 7.9%. Vision Care $283M on $1,212M - 23.3%, UP from 18.5%, a 480bp swing. Of the $89M rise in segment profit, $75M (84%) came from Vision Care. H1 free cash flow $693M vs $681M (+1.8%) while core operating income rose 14% - conversion fell 68% to 61%. Net debt $3,248M, ~1.15x EBITDA.
    What to watch: UP: implantables constant-currency growth breaking above 3% in the November print; UNITY placements converting into premium-lens attach; the $60M tariff refund landing in Q3; free-cash conversion recovering toward last year's 68%. DOWN: another flat implantables quarter as the launch year laps; Equipment decelerating off a 25% comparison; conversion stuck near 61%.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min
  • Franco-Nevada (FNV) Q2 2026: A 14-Cent Miss And A $42M Bullion Gain
    Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): adjusted EPS $1.81 vs a $1.95 bar, revenue $580.9M vs $616.7M expected. Yet revenue rose 57%, GEOs sold rose 18% to 132,405, and FY26 guidance moved to the UPPER half of 510,000-570,000 GEOs. An AMC print on Aug 11, so Aug 12 was the reaction: $235.94, down 1.99% on 1.4x volume.
    Every screener showed a 14-cent miss. Almost nobody opened the bullion note. Franco-Nevada takes some royalties in physical metal, holds it, and picks its own moment to sell - and that gain or loss sits inside Adjusted Net Income, because the company's definition strips impairments, disposals, fair-value moves and FX but NOT bullion trading. June 2025 booked a $42.2M gain on 44,484 ounces; June 2026 a $1.0M LOSS on 14,000.
    THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A BETTER QUARTER THAN IT READ, AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$205.0 vs ~$235.94 today.
    KEY METRICS:
    - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Blended fair value ~$205 vs the $235.94 Aug 12 close - about 13% BELOW the tape, and 27% under the Street's $280. A: owner-earnings DCF on ~$1.90B of 2026 free cash flow, +8% fading to 2%, discounted at 8.0% = $200. B: normalise gold to $3,900/oz (still 19% above last June's $3,279 average), $6.65 of earnings at 31x = $206. C: a 4.15% required FCF yield on $1,619M normalised = $214. Weighted 40/35/25. Bull $306, bear $140.
    - THE ANGLE - THE BASE WAS NOT CLEAN: per the Q2 2026 MD&A, Franco-Nevada sold 14,000 gold ounces for $59.8M and booked a $1.0M LOSS. In Q2 2025 it sold 44,484 ounces for $147.1M and booked a $42.2M GAIN. Timing 'varies based on gold prices and the Company's liquidity needs' - a treasury decision, and NOT an adjusting item. Strip it from both periods and adjusted earnings go ~$205M to ~$350M: growth near 70%, not the 46% printed.
    - THE PRINT: revenue $580.9M +57%. 132,405 GEOs sold +18% (122,205 net). Operating cash flow $482.5M +12%. Adjusted EBITDA $529.7M ($2.75) +45%. GAAP net income $354.0M ($1.84) +43% - HIGHER than the $1.81 adjusted figure, because the adjustments removed a $7.1M FX gain. Cost of sales just $45.9M = $347 per GEO against $4,387 of revenue per GEO. EPS BASIS PROVEN: FMP's 1.24 for Q2 2025 equals the release's adjusted $1.24, and $4.19 H1 less $1.81 = $2.38 for Q1.
    - BALANCE SHEET AND GUIDANCE: zero borrowings. Cash $1,014.2M, investments $1,215.1M, total liabilities just $681.5M of which $503.8M is deferred tax. Available Capital $4.3B. Dividend $0.44/qtr, a 0.75% yield, ~22% of our 2026 estimate. FY26 guidance HELD at 510,000-570,000 GEOs, now tracking the UPPER half; H1 did 268,758. Cobre Panama: the whole stockpile programme is ~23,100 gold oz plus 265,000 silver oz over two years - ~3% of H2.
    What to watch: UP: the implied ~286,000-GEO second half landing; Cobre Panama stockpile deliveries arriving from Q3; the ministerial commission moving toward a restart; WTI holding near $92.79 against a $70 plan. DOWN: gold's quarterly average continuing to slide from $4,875 to $4,517; the 29x multiple de-rating as metal normalises; Candelaria, Cote Gold, Greenstone or Valentine slipping their ramps.
    Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
    DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.
    Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video
    Educational only. Not financial advice.
    15 min

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