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President Donald Trump is on a mission to control the Federal Reserve Bank, and in particular, its Open Market Committee that sets the benchmark interest rate.
Trump wants interest rates to plummet to make borrowing cheaper and boost growth. Fed chair Jerome Powell and his allies say not so fast, they need to balance lower rates and economic growth with the Fed’s dual mandate of keeping employment up and inflation down.
To understand why Fed independence matters, BBTW editor Peter Green spoke with former Cleveland Fed vice-president Mark Schweitzer, now an associate professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University.
Peter Green: Why does Trump want to control the Fed? Just to lower interest rates?Mark Schweitzer: He’s definitely favoring more growth and thinks the economy should be growing more strongly and that the Fed is limiting that. But how he’s thinking about what that would do to inflation or employment, I’m not sure.
Why does Fed independence matter?Coming out of the 1970s, researchers looked at whether pressures on central banks contributed to inflation. Those researchers found, yes, pressures on central banks do cause inflation. So [they saw] that central bank independence is a good thing for inflation control. And there’s an acceptance that yes, central bank independence contributes to a lower inflation rate.
How do pressures on central banks cause inflation?This happened with Nixon and the Federal Reserve [in the 1970s]. Generally, the ruling party of whatever country is going to want to see more growth and lower unemployment. They would like to see lower inflation, too, but they’re not going to trade weaker growth or higher unemployment to achieve that. So your independent central bank will make that choice to say, yes, we should focus on inflation, even though we could have stronger growth.
So why is Powell resisting the pressure?Right now, the Federal Reserve’s looking at a labor market that has been improving and has gotten a little tighter. But in the last few months, there have been a few signs that it’s slowing. And there’s a judgment call about how well the Federal Reserve is doing on the full employment side of its dual mandate. On the other side, the Fed has stated that its goal for inflation is 2% on the consumer price index. On top of not having achieved that, there’s been an upward trend in inflation, and we know that tariffs will probably boost that as well. So there’s a lot for the Federal Reserve to worry about on the inflation side of its mandate. So, it’s a challenging situation to judge the appropriate policy rate. Sudden growth would almost certainly cause higher inflation.
What effect would lowering the Federal funds rate have on real-world interest rates?The federal funds rate is not a rate that you or I, or even real estate developers, get to borrow at. It’s a rate between banks. Longer-term interest rates are fundamentally determined by the expected inflation rate and whatever interest rate people feel is appropriate for lending at a 10-year, 20-year, or 30-year horizon. It’s a market-set rate. If the Fed said tomorrow that we’re going to make the Fed funds rate zero again, that might lower a credit card rate or two, but maybe not. The world is not a place where the Fed gets to just control rates. That’s not how it works. There are many market rates, and the Fed can influence some of them.
And if that Fed rate cut were as big as Trump is suggesting, by whole percentage points?If we had an inappropriately lower federal funds rate, investors are going to infer that we are likely to have more inflation in the future, and that’s going to cause upward pressure on long-term interest rates. If we see inflation expectations rise, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates again. We’re in an environment where a sharp reduction in interest rates would put inflation expectations at risk.
This interview has been edited and condensed for brevity and clarity.
—Peter S. Green
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The short stackWASHINGTON (AP) — LSD reduced symptoms of anxiety in a midstage study published Thursday, paving the way for additional testing and possible medical approval of a psychedelic drug that has been banned in the U.S. for more than a half century.
The results from drugmaker Mindmed tested several doses of LSD in patients with moderate-to-severe generalized anxiety disorder, with the benefits lasting as long as three months. The company plans to conduct follow-up studies to confirm the results and then apply for Food and Drug Administration approval.
Beginning in the 1950s, researchers published a flurry of papers exploring LSD’s therapeutic uses, though most of them don’t meet modern standards.
“I see this paper as a clear step in the direction of reviving that old research, applying our modern standards and determining what are the real costs and benefits of these compounds,” said Frederick Barrett, who directs Johns Hopkins University’s psychedelic center and was not involved in the research.
Psychedelic research is reboundingPsychedelics are in the midst of a popular and scientific comeback, with conferences, documentaries, books and medical journals exploring their potential for conditions like depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder.
The FDA has designated psilocybin, MDMA and now LSD as potential “breakthrough” therapies based on early results.
Still, the drugs have not had a glide path to the market.
Last year, the FDA rejected MDMA — also known as ecstasy — as a treatment for PTSD, citing flawed study methods, potential research bias and other issues.
The new LSD study, published by the Journal of the American Medical Association, addresses some of those problems.
MDMA, like many other psychedelics, was tested in combination with hours of talk therapy by trained health professionals. That approach proved problematic for FDA reviewers, who said it was difficult to separate the benefits of the drug from those of therapy.
The LSD study took a simpler approach: Patients got a single dose of LSD — under professional supervision, but without therapy — and then were followed for about three months.
The paper does not detail how patients were prepared for the experience or what sort of follow-up they received, which is crucial to understanding the research, Barrett noted.
“In many cases people can have such powerful, subjective experiences that they may need to talk to a therapist to help them make sense of it,” he said.
Anxiety eased but questions remainFor the study, researchers measured anxiety symptoms in nearly 200 patients who randomly received one of four doses of LSD or a placebo. The main aim was to find the optimal dose of the drug, which can cause intense visual hallucinations and occasionally feelings of panic or paranoia.
At four weeks, patients receiving the two highest doses had significantly lower anxiety scores than those who received placebo or lower doses. After 12 weeks, 65% of patients taking the most effective LSD dose — 100 micrograms — continued to show benefits and nearly 50% were deemed to be in remission. The most common side effects included hallucinations, nausea and headaches.
Patients who got dummy pills also improved — a common phenomenon in psychedelic and psychiatric studies — but their changes were less than half the size those getting the real drug.
The research was not immune to problems seen in similar studies.
Most patients were able to correctly guess whether they’d received LSD or a dummy pill, undercutting the “blinded” approach that’s considered critical to objectively establishing the benefits of a new medicine. In addition, a significant portion of patients in both the placebo and treatment groups dropped out early, narrowing the final data set.
It also wasn’t clear how long patients might continue to benefit.
Mindmed is conducting two large, late-stage trials that will track patients over a longer period of time and, if successful, be submitted for FDA approval.
“It’s possible that some people may need retreatment,” said Dr. Maurizio Fava of Mass General Brigham Hospital, the study’s lead author and an adviser to Mindmed. “How many retreatments, we don’t know yet, but the long-lasting effect is quite significant.”
Interest from the Trump administrationHealth Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other administration officials have expressed interest in psychedelic therapy, suggesting it could receive fast-track review for veterans and others suffering psychological wounds.
Generalized anxiety disorder is among the most common mental disorders, affecting nearly 3% of U.S. adults, according to the National Institutes of Health. Current treatments include psychotherapy, antidepressants and anti-anxiety drugs like benzodiazepines.
The possibility of using LSD as a medical treatment isn’t new.
In the 1950s and 1960s more than 1,000 papers were published documenting LSD’s use treating alcohol addiction, depression and other conditions. But a federal backlash was in full swing by the late 1960s, when psychedelics became linked to counterculture figures like Timothy Leary, the ex-Harvard professor who famously promoted the drugs as a means to “turn on, tune in and dropout.”
A 1970 law classifying LSD and other psychedelics as Schedule 1 drugs — without any medical use and high potential for abuse — essentially halted U.S. research.
When a handful of nonprofits begin reassessing the drugs in the 1980s and 1990s, they focused on lesser-known hallucinogens like MDMA and psilocybin, the main ingredient in magic mushrooms, to avoid the historic controversies surrounding LSD.
“LSD was right there in front of everybody, but Mindmed is the first company that actually decided to evaluate it,” Fava said.
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This story has been corrected to show that the reported effective dose of LSD is 100 micrograms, not 100 milligrams.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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