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  • Big Business This Week: Gobble Gobble Gobbledygook

    The turkey on your Thanksgiving table is gobbling up a lot less money this year. In fact, retail turkey prices are hovering around $2.08 a pound, that’s down 11.9% from last year’s $2.36 a pound, even as grocery prices are up about 1.1% since last year. That’s according to Temple University economist Joshua Mask, who says that even as truckers and grocery store shelf-stockers are getting paid more this year, two things are different: The Covid-era supply chain disruptions are finally over, and last year’s bird-flu epidemic is gone and stocks are rebuilt. (Did you know that the average age of the turkey on your dinner table is only 5 to 7 months?)

    The American Farm Bureau does its own survey, sending volunteer shoppers from all 50 states plus Puerto Rico to visit local grocery stores (or their websites) to price the items in a classic Thanksgiving dinner.

    A gut-busting meal for 10 will run you $58.08, down 5% from last year, but still 19% higher than before Covid. As Farm Bureau economists Samantha Ayoub, Bernt Nelson, and Betty Resnick

    report, the Thanksgiving grocery bill is “a mixed bag of savings and squeezes.” Prices dropped on turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts, and whole milk. But dinner rolls, fresh cranberries, whipping cream, and cubed stuffing (a mortal sin in our house, where our friend Bob always makes it with oysters) rose in price. Add in some new favorites, including ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans, and the cost of the meal climbed to $77.34, or $7.73 per person, down 8.7% since last year.

    The Farm Bureau’s research notes that the average 16-pound turkey accounts for 44.2% of the dinner’s cost, and clocks the decrease in turkey prices at 6% on average. While the avian flu would normally have pushed turkey prices up, the real secret to the price of birds dropping is falling demand. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates Americans are eating a whole pound less of turkey this year, down to 13.9 pounds per person annually.

    Watch Big Business This Week on Cheddar—and YouTube!The Usual Suspects
    • Mo’ Moana, Mo’ Money: Disney’s 2016 animated hit Moana, about a little girl from a Pacific island with big dreams and even bigger friends, has been the surprise hit of the streaming world. Last year it was the most-streamed movie in the world, and simultaneously the most-streamed movie ever. That’s an astounding turnaround for a movie that was 12th at the global box office when it was released, as the Wall Street Journal reports. Disney is hoping that magic will rub off this weekend, when Moana 2 opens in theaters, where it’s projected to sell $120 to $150 million in tickets in the U.S. and Canada. That would put this Thanksgiving weekend on track for more than $200 million, the second largest Thanksgiving box office weekend in movie history.
    • Putting the “De” in DEI: Fearing a boycott from conservative voters, Walmart is pulling back on its DEI efforts, most notably ending its Center for Racial Equality, which has handed out $100 million in grants over five years. And it won’t use the term “DEI” in official communications. Anto-DEI activist Robby Starbuck took credit for the changes, saying he’d warned America’s biggest retailer that he was preparing a report on its wokeness. Frank Dobbin, a DEI expert at Harvard, said the pullback will hurt Walmart. “I think this will have an unfortunate effect on Walmart’s current employees,” he told the New York Times.
    • Citibank Blues: Citigroup, the parent of Citibank, says it’s cutting by 75% the number of managers who will get a boost in pay and title at the end of the year. Only 2,000 employees will get a bonus or promotion this year, down from the average 8,000 a year, the Financial Times reports. CEO Jane Fraser has already slashed 10,000 jobs this year, cutting the workforce to 229,000.
    • Chips Away: The Commerce Department said it’s cut about $600 million from the $8.5 billion in direct funding it was sending to chipmaker Intel to boost U.S. semiconductor production, after Intel won a $3 billion contract from the Pentagon. The feds also cited a cutback in Intel’s own investment plans and development timetable, which knocked $10 billion off the firm’s planned $100 billion investment program and appeared to delay some projects beyond a 2030 deadline.
    Elon’s World

    California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, is hitting back at Trump’s plans to end electric-vehicle subsidies, and at Musk’s support for Trump (and the move of X and SpaceX headquarters to texas from SanFrancisco). Newsome said that if Trump cancels the $7,500 EV tax credit, California will put in place a similar subsidy, but would include a market cap on eligible carmakers to encourage smaller and newer EV makers. • After Comcast said it plans to spin off MSNBC and a host of other cable properties into separate companies, Musk mused publicly that perhaps he should purchase the left-leaning news channel. A Comcast spokesperson poured cold water on the notion. “We are looking forward to the planned spinoff of our cable networks, which will create a new company owned by our shareholders — none of these assets are for sale.” • When a Fox News host asked Maye Musk about her son, noting his immense wealth, Mamma Musk said she loves her son despite his riches: “I don’t like the word ‘wealthy’ or ‘billionaire’ or things like that because I think it’s degrading. I think he’s the genius of the world, and people are loving him for that.” • As conservative activists try to nix the Onion’s purchase of InfoWars, the fake news site that Alex Jones had to sell to pay Sandy Hook parents for saying they faked their kids’ deaths in the infamous school shooting, Musk is saying he won’t relinquish InfoWars’ Twitter accounts, claiming in a court filing that all X accounts are X Corp.’s “exclusive property,” even though content is owned by the account holders. A Houston bankruptcy court that’s handling the liquidation of InfoWars has yet to respond. • Grimes, the former pop star who had three children with Musk, has dissed him on X, saying he wouldn’t let her see one of her kids for five months. The couple share three children: sons X Æ A-Xii, 4, and Techno Mechanicus, 2, and daughter Exa Dark Sideræl, 3. “Spent a year locked in battle in a state with terrible mothers rights having my instagram posts and modeling used as reasons I shouldn’t have my kids and fighting and detaching from the love of my life as he becomes unrecognizable to me, with a fraction of his resources (or iq/ strategy experience), all the while I didn’t see one of my babies for 5 months,” she wrote, adding, “And this is only what can be said publicly, since most of my experience these last years should remain behind closed doors.” • As he warms up for his role co-leading a blue-ribbon consulting commission on cutting government spending, Musk has attacked the F-35 program, which builds the world’s most expensive fighter aircraft. Musk is arguing it’s time to abandon manned combat flight and replace jets with swarms of low-cost, AI-driven drones. His comment sent F-35 maker Lockheed Martin’s stock down 3%. Small drones used in the Russia-Ukraine conflict cost $10,000 to $50,000 each, compared to the F-35′s $80 million price tag. • The British police may be the best in the world, at least according to Tom Robinson Band, but the UK’s police forces are abandoning X after it was used to spread misinformation about the stabbing of several schoolchildren in the English town of Southport, sparking riots across Britain last summer, according to the Daily Telegraph. • NASA’s Dragonfly mission to explore Saturn’s largest moon, Titan, will be propelled by a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket, the government space agency said this week. Musk, who’s vowed to make massive cuts to the federal budget with his new Department of Government Efficiency, has more than $11 billion worth of contracts with NASA. • Famed astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson says there’s no way man is going to Mars, no matter what Elon Musk wants. “For him to just say, let’s go to Mars because it’s the next thing to do, what is that venture capitalist meeting [going to] look like?” Tyson told Bill Maher. “‘So, Elon, what do you want to do?’ ‘I want to go to Mars?’ ‘How much will it cost?’ ‘$1 trillion.’ ‘Is it safe?’ ‘No. People will probably die.’ ‘What’s the return on the investment?’ ‘Nothing.’ That’s a five-minute meeting. And it doesn’t happen,” he said.

    “Wow, they really don’t get it,” Musk responded in a post on X.

    My new shit is so elevated beyond that - after everything I've been thru - I am keeping the best of book 1 for the new stuff but I've never been better in my life than right now, and I spent a lot of my time off with babies getting in my ten thousand hours of creative writing and…

    — 𝖦𝗋𝗂𝗆𝖾𝗌 ⏳ (@Grimezsz) November 20, 2024

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    The Short Stack
    • Out of Control: United Airlines is blaming the FAA for its Thanksgiving weekend delays that by Wednesday had hit more than 350,000 travelers. Some 6 million Americans are expected to travel by air this holiday weekend — the most ever on a Thanksgiving — according to the TSA. United says a lack of air traffic controllers at its Newark hub is forcing it to delay flights. The FAA acknowledged it has struggled to recruit controllers. Pay is down, and Congress has been loath to pay for more controllers or a much-needed upgrade to air traffic control systems.
    • Bitcoin’s surge: The cryptocurrency (trading just short of $100,000 wednesday) is drawing the attention of the IRS, which is looking to tax the extraordinary gains since Bitcoin tanked in 2022. New reporting rules will make it harder to avoid paying tax on realized crypto gains, the Wall Street Journal reports. “The thing to do now is to clean up your digital books and records. The reporting regime is coming,” Washington tax lawyer Mark Howe told the newspaper.
    • Macy’s hidden delivery fees: No they’re not charging shoppers. Instead, a so-far-unidentified Macy’s employee had misstated the costs of small package delivery in the company’s books to the tune of $154 million. That forced the department store chain to delay releasing its full third-quarter earnings report, even as it announced that sales in the quarter were down 2.4 percent to $4.74 billion. Macy’s hasn’t said why the now-former employee misattributed the cost, only that there was no sign of embezzlement. Apparently there’s a new watchword at Macy’s shipping department. “Hello, Federal!”
    • French Fry cartel? Forget cocaine or oil as lucrative cartels! A flurry of lawsuits filed at the end of last week accuse four of the U.S.’s largest frozen french fry makers of conspiring to raise prices by as much as 47% from 2022 to 2024. The four firms make up 97% of the frozen fry industry, which is worth about $68 billion (yes billion) according to one suit. Reps for several of the firms have denied any conspiracy.
    • I’m the Taxman: A second $20 billion cut to the IRS’ enforcement budget could boost the national debt by $140 billion dollars, the Treasury warned. Without the money the IRS would have to forgo 6,000 audits of wealthy individuals and 2,000 audits of large corporations, Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said Tuesday. Those audits usually result in scores of billions of dollars of added tax revenue; auditors uncover illegal tax dodges.
    Tariffs and Turmoil

    Donald Trump apparently wasn’t joking when he said he’d slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada for supposedly flooding the U.S. with migrants and fentanyl. Neither statements are true, but Trump has now wagged a short finger at the U.S. neighbors who are members of the Trump-negotiated USMCA — the NAFTA-clone trade agreement creating a relatively common market among North America’s three largest economies. This week he said he plans to impose 25% tariffs on everything imported from Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on imports from China, which is well below the previously threatened 50% to 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

    America’s biggest retailer was quick to note those tariffs will hurt consumers. “Tariffs are going to be inflationary, there’s no disputing that,” Walmart finance chief John David Rainey told Fox News. Here’s a look at some of the sectors that will be hurt by Trump’s planned tariffs.

    • Automakers: The top 10 car manufacturers with Mexican plants collectively built 1.4 million vehicles over the first six months of this year, with 90% heading across the border to U.S. buyers, according to the Mexican auto trade association. GM would take the biggest hit, as it’s expected to import about 750,000 vehicles from Mexico or Canada this year. And it’s not only whole cars, Mexico and Canada provide about half the components used in U.S. car assembly, worth nearly $100 billion. Trump’s tariffs will hurt the U.S. as much as its trading partners. “The U.S. would be shooting itself in the foot,” Kenneth Smith Ramos, Mexico’s former chief negotiator for the USMCA trade pact, told Reuters.
    • Oil: U.S. refineries count on 4 million barrels a day of oil from Canada that is refined and consumed in the U.S. or exported, and Mexico provides another million barrels a day to the U.S. That’s going to raise fuel prices, especially in the Midwest where refineries that use Canadian oil are located. The refiners trade association, the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers group, took a dim view of the proposed tariffs in a statement it issued, warning the new tax would “impact consumers and undercut our advantage as the world’s leading maker of liquid fuels.”
    • Textiles: Tariffs on Chinese good would help U.S. industry, even if it hurts U.S. consumers, but including Canada and Mexico could undermine U.S. manufacturing, said Kim Glas, the chief executive of the National Council of Textile Organizations. She noted that 54% of U.S. made textiles are exported to Canada and Mexico where they are finished and sent back to the U.S.
    • Steel: Putting tariffs on Canadian steel would “dramatically harm workers in both our countries,” said Dave McCall, president of the United Steelworkers union. “Canada is not the problem,” he said in a statement.

    The relentlessly pro-business U.S. chamber of Commerce said Trump could crack down on fentanyl, if that’s what really motivates him, without using tariffs. “If imposed,” the chamber said in a statement, “tariffs themselves would not solve our border problems, and instead would send prices soaring, costing the typical American family more than $1,000, with significant harm to U.S. manufacturers, farmers and ranchers.”

    0 min
  • Electric Cars Need Recharge as Range Limits, Cost Leave Some Skeptical

    DETROIT (AP) — While sales of electric vehicles surge in China, adoption of more environmentally friendly vehicles is stumbling in the United States and Europe as carmakers and governments struggle to meet years-old promises about affordability and charging stations.

    Adding to those headwinds: an incoming new U.S. president who has disparaged government support for electric vehicles.

    China is the exception. Driven by government subsidies and mandates, vehicles with electric motors, including plug-in hybrids that combine electric and fossil fuel motors, topped 50% of sales in the month of July.

    Concerns about range, charging infrastructure and higher prices are sore points among both electric car enthusiasts and skeptics in Europe and the U.S.

    Solar panels power charging at Detlef Mueller-Salis' home in Mainz, Germany, so he thought he was all set to go electric. But range concerns, charging times and confusing charging payment methods have proved frustrating.

    So after four years, he and his wife sold their Porsche Taycan and Fiat 500 electrics and bought a BMW 5-Series and a Volkswagen Polo, both internal combustion.

    The smaller Fiat could run 220 kilometers (136.70 miles) on a charge in summer and 180 in winter, he said, against the manufacturer's specification of 320 kilometers. Constantly checking the battery before quick trips to visit grandchildren and elder parents grew annoying.

    So did going on vacation with payment cards from five different charging plans. The Porsche took 30 minutes to charge instead of the 22 minutes advertised, not a huge difference but “not what the company promised,” said Mueller-Salis, who is retired from a logistics company. Driving fast on the autobahn reduced range so that “you paid for it with charging time.”

    Both retirees in their 70s, Ken and Roxanne Honeycutt mainly drive their used Kia Soul around their town near Oakland, California. They charge the EV, with a range of about 111 miles (179 kilometers), in their garage and don't rely much on public infrastructure. But for longer trips they have to plan fast charging stops ahead of time.

    “We wanted to try it,” Roxanne said of the EV. “Sometimes we found that the charging stations don’t always work, they’re broken down, so that gives you a little bit of anxiety if you know okay, I need to charge.”

    On one cold, rainy January day, the Soul’s range dropped faster than expected, so they had to stop twice to charge. Another time, they hit multiple non-functioning chargers — even in California, where EV adoption leads the rest of the country. Their range dropped to 13 miles.

    “We’re used to having a gas station on every corner, 24 hours a day,” Roxanne said, adding they still like the vehicle.

    Electric cars aren’t going away. They are essential for planet-warming carbon emissions reductions governments agreed to under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

    Electrified vehicle sales will reach 17 million this year, or one car in five sold globally, according to the International Energy Agency. That includes plug-in hybrids that combine electric with internal combustion motors.

    But about 60% of those sales are in China.

    In Europe, sales of electric-only cars fell 5.8% in January-September from a year earlier, while their market share fell to 13% from 14%.

    Pure EVs accounted for 8% of overall U.S. vehicle sales in October. So, the market is growing, but sales have slowed. They're not plunging, but they're not yet growing fast enough to meet climate goals.

    Aside from buyer hesitancy, barriers remain

    Higher prices matter. A Volkswagen ID. 3 hatchback costs 39,995 euros (about $42,090), compared to the similar-sized Volkswagen Golf fuel engine version at 27,180 euros ($29,136), according to the ADAC auto association.

    U.S. EV prices have fallen significantly since 2022, but the average price in October for a new one, $56,902, still exceeded the average $48,623 for a new vehicle. Cost remains an issue for the more mainstream American consumers EV makers hope to target, according to a recent poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago.

    Uncertainty over purchase subsidies also complicates price comparisons.

    EV sales plunged in Germany early this year after the government abruptly cancelled the purchase premium of 6,750 euros for cars up to 40,000 euros and 4,500 euros for cars up to 65,000 euros. ADAC says that means most internal combustion models are a better deal over a car's lifetime.

    Conservative political parties and the industry are now questioning the EU’s goal of eliminating most fuel engine vehicles by 2035, a decision that’s up for review in 2026. The European Auto Manufacturers’ Association is urging that carbon dioxide limits which carmakers must meet by 2026 or face heavy fines be relaxed. Some carmakers have pushed back electrification plans.

    President-elect Trump has vowed to end what he called the Biden administration’s EV “mandate,” though he has softened his anti-EV stance as his ties with Tesla CEO Elon Musk grew closer. Automakers are not required to sell EVs under the Environmental Protection Agency’s greenhouse gas emissions standards regulating tailpipe pollution, though they need EV sales to be at least 56% of their total sales to meet ambitious standards for cutting emissions. Trump may also eliminate critical EV tax credits.

    Even if fewer buyers choose EVs, tax credits or not, auto companies show no intention of fully retreating from the transition away from gas-burning cars and trucks.

    The China difference

    China's auto market, the world's largest has been transformed by billions of dollars in subsidies, with EV sales reaching 25.8% of the 13.5 million vehicles sold in January-August, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The government is encouraging car buyers to go electric, and many are buying EVs or plug-in hybrids under an economic stimulus program.

    The phasing out of earlier subsidies in 2022 unleashed a fierce price war, toppling some weaker automakers. Some Chinese EVs sell for less than $20,000 in their home market.

    The government push encouraged many start-ups that took the Tesla model and ran with it. They simplified car designs to cut costs and filled interiors with gadgetry appealing to a smartphone-savvy generation.

    Photographer Wu Cong sat inside his $23,000 Hongqi E-QM5 as it recharged in Beijing. He travels often for work, racking up 80,000 kilometers (50,000 miles) in the last two years. The EV saves him about 50 yuan ($7) in fuel costs for every 100 kilometers, he said, which would add up to $5,600 over two years.

    The sedan's navigation system reminds him to recharge after driving a distance of his choosing. “It will tell you if there are charging stations ahead and if anyone is using them,” he said.

    Beijing tech worker Shang Wenting said her family hardly uses their gasoline-powered car anymore except for on long trips, preferring a sapphire Tesla Model Y they bought for about $37,000.

    During a weekly trip to a charging station 10 minutes from her home, Shang said the Tesla is cheaper to drive and she loves its “smart features,” like an energy recovery system that means she can press on the accelerator less.

    “It feels like switching from an old phone to a smart phone,” she said.

    ___

    Moritsugu reported from Beijing. Associated Press video producer Caroline Chen and researcher Yu Bing contributed from Beijing.

    0 min
  • Federal Reserve Signals Caution on Rate Cuts Amid Stubborn Inflation

    WASHINGTON (AP) — With inflation still elevated, Federal Reserve officials expressed caution at their last meeting about cutting interest rates too quickly, adding to uncertainty about their next moves.

    Even if inflation continued declining to the Fed's 2% target, officials said, “it would likely be appropriate to move gradually” in lowering rates, according to minutes of the November 6-7 meeting.

    The minutes don't provide much guidance about what the Fed will do at its next meeting Dec. 17-18. Wall Street investors see the odds of another quarter-point reduction in the Fed's key rate at that meeting as nearly even, according to CME Fedwatch. Most economists think officials will probably cut rates next month for the third time this year, but could then skip cutting at following meetings.

    Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, said she expects the Fed will cut its key rate by a quarter-point next month, to about 4.3%. But officials will “likely pause" early next year “to assess prospective policy changes under the second Trump administration as well as the current landscape of economic activity and inflation,” she added in a client note.

    In September, the Fed signaled it would reduce its key rate as many as four times next year, but since then investors and economists have come to expect fewer cuts. The economy is growing at a solid pace, inflation is showing signs of getting stuck above the Fed's target, and President-elect Donald Trump's proposals, particularly higher tariffs, could also accelerate inflation.

    Inflation fell to 2.1% in September, down from a peak of 7% in mid-2022, providing Fed officials with the confidence to implement a steep half-point reduction in its key rate that month.

    But excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called “core” prices are more elevated, rising 2.7% from a year earlier in September. And they are expected to have risen again last month, when that data is reported Wednesday, to 2.8%.

    Most officials at last month's meeting expressed confidence that inflation is steadily falling back to target, the minutes said. Yet they also said that it “remained somewhat elevated” and a couple of officials “noted the possibility that the process could take longer than previously expected.” Nineteen people participate in the Fed's interest rate policy discussions, though only 12 have a vote.

    Many of the policymakers also noted that it was uncertain how far the Fed would have to cut its rate. There is broad disagreement among officials about what level of the Fed's rate would neither restrain nor stimulate growth. As a result, the minutes said, that “made it appropriate to reduce (interest rates) gradually.”

    The Fed is trying to calibrate its policies so that it doesn't cut rates too quickly and allow inflation to surge again. At the same time, it doesn't want to reduce them too slowly, which could drag down hiring and growth.

    If inflation stayed too high, Fed officials could “pause” their rate cuts, the minutes said, while if the economy slowed and unemployment rose, they could reduce rates more quickly.

    0 min

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