Monday 7th April 2025

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In a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the next steps. If compromises aren’t found, what happens next? NAB’s Rodrig Catril says they are not forecasting a US recession just yet, although some are – like JP Morgan, for example. Jerome Powell was reasonably circumspect on Friday, saying the higher tariffs could prolong inflation w which could delay the Fed’s response to an economic downturn. Ironically, non-farm payrolls showed a US economy strengthening, but it seems the President is prepared to jeopardise short term economic stability in exchange for a significant change in the pattern of international trade. If that’s’ the case, negotiated deals this week seem unlikely.

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