ChinaEconTalk

ChinaEconTalk

By SupChinaBusiness
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ChinaEconTalk episodes

  • Setser on US-China Trade, Lessons from USTR, Economics of Great Powers, and Panda Diplomacy

    Brad Setser, fellow at CFR who spent a year during the Biden Administration in USTR, joins ChinaTalk to discuss:

    • China's long term growth trajectory and implications for national power
    • Zambia debt negotiations and Argentina's dollarization
    • When strategic trade policy can make sense
    • Panda export controls

      • Sign up here for international intrigue! https://www.internationalintrigue.io/?utm_source=chinatalk&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=1223

      Kyla Scanlon of the https://kyla.substack.com/ newsletter cohosts.

      Outtro music: I Hear a Rhapsody, Bill Evans and Jim Hall https://open.spotify.com/track/2oEvw0AfrT2fPNpEnBwVml?si=cc9f1add64034de7

      Midjourney image: a panda bald eagle combined mystical animal in the style of a traditional chinese painting

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      1 hr 26 min
    • US-China Tech in 2023: Top 5 Stories of the Year

      Kevin Xu of https://interconnect.substack.com/ and I run down our top five stories of the year in US-China tech. We get into:

      • The eternal chip war
      • The battle for AI model supremacy
      • EV competition
      • Venture investing in China
      • PDD and Temu's rise
      • TikTok's impressive resilience


        • Here's ChinaTalk's attempt to benchmark Chinese models https://www.chinatalk.media/p/putting-chinas-top-llms-to-the-test

        Outtro music: two songs from my spotify wrapped which are kind of ancillary to crappy US-China relations?

        2gether, Mura Masa and Gretel Ganlyn: https://open.spotify.com/track/1Wqd0R1X1tuVK9FySVyLpt?si=48a61ddf3f094b57

        No Talk, Lowell: https://open.spotify.com/track/0ToOqwERQswtN1O7AveCU9?si=9424183956b74960

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        55 min
      • Taiwan Election Showdown! A Blue Prof and Green Pol Explain

        The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set!

        To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014.

        Our conversation gets into:

        • What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling;
        • Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate;
        • The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人;
        • What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics;
        • How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan;
        • What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter;
        • And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors.


          • DPP ticket:

          • president: William Lai Ching-te 賴清德
          • vice president: Hsiao Bi-khim 蕭美琴


            • KMT ticket:

            • president: Hou Yu-ih 侯友宜
            • vice president: Jaw Shaw-kong 趙少康


              • TPP ticket:

              • president: Ko Wen-je 柯文哲
              • vice president: Cynthia Wu Hsin-ying 吳欣盈



                • Outro music: 回春丹- 鲜花 https://open.spotify.com/track/35XxW360SO3puJQDfuaY4r

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                1 hr 25 min
              • How Rep. Gallagher Would Fix Congress and Beat China

                This was a good episode. Mike Gallagher, Chair of the Select Committee on China, has some thoughtful thoughts! We get into:

                • How he would fix Congress
                • Why the early Cold War is still relevant today
                • What he took away from his time in Iraq and the Eisenhower Archives
                • Why all you should really do to understand China is listen to ChinaTalk and read our substack (at https://www.chinatalk.media/)


                  • My book rec: https://www.amazon.com/Men-Machines-Modern-Times-Press/dp/0262529319

                  Outtro music, Ella Fitzgerald, My Cousin in Milwaukee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWy9XjHt324

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                  47 min
                • Emergency Pod: We Are So Back! OpenAI Drama and US-China

                  Rohit Krishnan of Strange Loop Canon and I kibbitz about this weekend's OpenAI drama as well as the safety and US-China regulatory dynamics likely raised in the discussions with the board.

                  Some content we discussed:

                  • Jade Leung PhD thesis: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:ea3c7cb8-2464-45f1-a47c-c7b568f27665
                  • Jeff Ding and Jenny Xiao's piece: https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/recent-trends-chinas-llm-landscape
                  • The Foreign Affairs piece: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/illusion-chinas-ai-prowess-regulation

                    • Image made by my mother on DALLE to represent Altman getting fired for the family groupchat.

                    Outtro music:

                    • Happy Survival https://open.spotify.com/track/5txZKim1ruceUUhDlU84yc?si=b0d183344163418d
                    • It'l All Be Over: https://open.spotify.com/track/1KFtR58Hn1nQ9fR0DRnC9n?si=512636c8caf24610


                      • Happy Thanksgiving everyone!



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                      58 min
                    • Xi-Biden at APEC + What It Takes To Compete

                      Matt Turpin, China NSC Director in the Trump administration currently at Hoover and Palantir, comes on to discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of US-China relations coming out of APEC. We get into:

                      • Realistic expectations for bilateral US-China diplomacy
                      • What are the necessary ingredients for coherent and effective policymaking
                      • What Matt expects and worries about from a second Trump administration
                      • Why foundations and corporations should sponsor ChinaTalk!


                        • Outtro music: Time/Breathe Reprise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uw1bJrFdCjY

                        Virtual insanity: https://open.spotify.com/track/24SUWisv2lYQiB3bVpE1sn?si=cf1cf18c0bc94ef7

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                        1 hr 11 min
                      • Peter Harrell on Bureaucratic Barriers to Competition

                        Peter Harrell, who served as Biden's Senior Director for International Economics and Competitiveness on the NSC and NEC, comes on to discuss:

                        • Why things do or don't happen in the executive branch
                        • What reforms we might need to accelerate and amplify decision-making
                        • Lessons from the sanctions response to the war in Ukraine for China


                          • Check out our newsletter at https://www.chinatalk.media.

                          James Brown--Bewildered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXlDeqSTRA

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                          58 min
                        • RAND CEO Jason Matheny Gives a Masterclass on Risk and Organizational Design

                          This interview was so good.

                          Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND.

                          We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on:

                          • How to design a world-class research organization
                          • The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s
                          • Existential risks around AI and bio
                          • Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy
                          • What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture

                            • And a ton more.

                            Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology

                            Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music:

                            Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03

                            Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc

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                            1 hr 51 min
                          • London AI Summit + OpenAI Dev Day!

                            Zvi Mowshowitz of Don't Worry about The Vase and Nathan Labenz of the Cognitive Revolution podcast come on for a quick recap of the past week's AI news!

                            We get into:

                            • What AI diplomacy is looking like post-Bletchley Park
                            • What new applications OpenAI's latest announcements mean for future AI applications


                              • Outtro: Bizarrap with Milo J https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGWa-GO8mKg

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                              42 min
                            • RAND CEO Jason Matheny Gives a Masterclass on Risk and Organizational Design
                              Redownload for better audio!
                              Jason Matheny, Biden's former top tech + national security advisor, has recently reached one year as CEO of RAND.
                              We had a truly classic ChinaTalk-style conversation, hitting on:
                              How to design a world-class research organization
                              The right and wrong lessons to learn from RAND's heyday in the 1950s
                              Existential risks around AI and bio
                              Government's capacity to grok and implement technology strategy
                              What national security professionals can learn from art and architecture
                              And a ton more.
                              Thanks to Check out the Hudson Institute's defense research center here: https://www.hudson.org/policycenters/center-defense-concepts-technology
                              Some 1950s vibes for our outtro music:
                              Julie London: https://open.spotify.com/track/6crfO56bDm0RjpctUuGs5X?si=5a434079b24b4d03
                              Doris Day: https://open.spotify.com/track/20G1XJaTwIm2IuwA3Pjg1d?si=22095e2f9aa842cc
                              Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
                              1 hr 51 min

                            About ChinaEconTalk

                            From the publisher's feed

                            A weekly conversation exploring China's economy and tech scene. Guests include a wide range of policy analysts, business professionals, journalists, and academics. A SupChina production, hosted by…