ChinaEconTalk

ChinaEconTalk

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ChinaEconTalk episodes

  • Peak China with Noah Smith and Matt Klein

    Noah Smith of https://www.noahpinion.blog/ and Matt Klein of https://theovershoot.co/ join ChinaTalk to discuss:

    We get into:

    • What's really happening with China's economy and why it matters strategically
    • How China's potential peak parallels Japan's
    • Why the world should and shouldn't be scared of China's progress in semis and EVs
    • What another Trump Administration could do for US-China relations
    • How Noah actually does his substack


      • This was a fun one, I hope you enjoy!

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      1 hr 9 min
    • EMERGENCY POD: Huawei's Breakthrough, the Technical, Industrial and Strategic Implications

      Huawei’s breakthrough Kirin 9000s: what is it, why is it a big deal, and what if anything should the US do about it? Joining me, I have on two fantastic semiconductor analysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis. We get into:

      • How this chip illustrates Chinese engineering excellence and the porous nature of the current export control regime
      • Why we can expect AI chips on par with the A100 coming out of China in the next two years
      • What steps the US government could take to tighten export controls and set back the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem
      • How China has come to dominate both the lagging edge and the EV space


        • Here's my piece on the topic: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/huaweis-breakthrough-the-strategic

        And here's Dylan's: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/china-ai-and-semiconductors-rise

        Outtro music: 潮州土狗 - 50元的檳榔 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjl2qabfSNs

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        1 hr 14 min
      • Why Congress Can Save Us All

        This episode of China Talk explores the past, present, and future of Congress with AEI's Philip Wallach. We get into:

        • Origins of representative government trace back to medieval England, when the king consulted regional advisors – leading to development of Parliament
        • Founders inspired by this model when establishing Congress, wanting representation for diverse parts of young U.S.
        • But competing visions emerged for how Congress should work:
        • Madison's view: embrace factional conflict and compromise
        • Wilson's view: stronger centralized leadership
        • These tensions played out through different eras of Congress:
        • Early years: backlash against Hamilton’s Treasury power leads to first political party
        • New Deal/WWII: Congress oversees executive branch while enabling key programs
        • Civil rights era: Senate leaders allow extended filibuster, focus national attention, build enduring coalition
        • 1970s reforms decentralize Congress but decrease cooperation between members over time
        • Under 1994 Gingrich revolution, partisan centralization becomes norm – embraced by both parties
        • Potential futures discussed, including a fever dream of Philip's where an immigration crisis actually prompts real lawmaking.


          • Outtro music: Nixon's 1972 campaign song

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          1 hr
        • How China Regulates AI

          How does the public, corporations, academia and civil society end up directly influencing some of China's most important regulations? What's the trajectory of China's approach to AI?

          Matt Sheehan of CIEP returns to discuss the AI regulatory policy process in China!

          Matt's paper: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/07/10/china-s-ai-regulations-and-how-they-get-made-pub-90117

          Outtro music: 曾涵江Cup ：天选 CHOSEN ONE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OB607_3sDYQ

          Image: I took an image from Dunhuang and prompted it with "artificial intelligence"

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          54 min
        • Culture Month! Painting in Premodern China

          Culture month continues with some traditional Chinese painting coverage!

          What was it like to paint in premodern China? How did a husband-wife and master-mentee team up to produce some remarkable art? Why is it okay to say Chinese art is "good" or "bad" while those who critique western art have so much heartburn over saying their opinion?

          Cohosting is Joseph Scheier-Dolberg, Chinese paintings curator at the MET.

          This episode is better experienced on YouTube. Check out the video on ChinaTalk's YouTube channel here: https://youtu.be/Rxr6xOj29A8

          Here's the link to the exhibit: https://www.metmuseum.org/exhibitions/learning-to-paint/exhibition-objects

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          1 hr
        • "Emergency" Pod: Outbound Investment Screening!

          Emily Benson (CSIS) and Martin Chorzempa (PIIE) come on to discuss the new executive order and Treasury's ANRPM (advanced notice of proposed rulemaking) on novel outbound investment screening rules on AI, quantum and semis.


          Treasury document: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/206/Treasury-ANPRM.pdf

          Outtro music: 水碾河南三街 LSGCsikoriot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Wzz1Deafh8

          Midjourney: used this 18th century Japanese woodprint and prompted it with "quantum semiconductor"

          https://www.metmuseum.org/art/collection/search/55371

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          52 min
        • Beyond Decoupling: NATO for Trade

          Should democracies band together to protect themselves from Chinese economic coercion? What can deterrence theory teach us about geoeconomic strategy?

          To discuss these questions, I brought on Matt Goodman and Matt Reynolds of CSIS along with Matt Klein of The Overshoot and David Talbot of the Milken Institute.

          We discuss:

          –Why China uses economic coercion, especially against smaller states.

          –How democracies might join together to deter and respond to this aggression.

          –Why reslience beats retaliation when it comes to economic conflict.

          Outro music: "(You're The) Devil in Disguise," Elvis Presley.

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          49 min
        • Culture Month! Indie Chinese Music Hour with Concrete Avalanche

          This August, ChinaTalk is going to take a bit of a break from our usual routine of tech and politics coverage to spend some time with Chinese culture! Starting us off is Jake Newby of the Concrete Avalanche substack who will be taking us through a radio hour of some of the most interesting independent music coming out of China.

          Here's the playlist:

          Intro music: Voision Xi - 'Too Late to Complain' from Five Loops in Her Way. More on that EP here; listen to Voision's jazz record Lost For Words here.

          1. Voision Xi - 'Catch the Train' from Eating Music's Running With Friends. More on that compilation here.

          2. Vii M - 'Man O' War (Cocoonics remix)' from The Other Side of Sublunary (The Remixes). More on Vii M and Sublunary here.

          3. Lygort Trio - '藏身之处' from Lygort Trio. More on them here.

          4. Hualun - 'Cities of the Red Night' from Tempus. More on Tempus here.

          5. Zhou Shijue - '幸福来的这么自然‘ from 应运而生. More on his record with J-Fever and Eddie Beatz here.

          6. 33EMYBW - 'The Unheard Southern Mountains' from Long May the Water Flow. More on that compilation here.

          7. Li Daiguo - '小精灵幼儿园放学' from 吥哔呢未来音:奇幻童年.

          8. Zhaoze - 'Stand in Wind' from No Answer Blowin' in the Wind. More on that album here.

          9. Ὁπλίτης - 'Ὁ τῶν τραυμάτων ἄγγελος' from Τρωθησομένη. More on Hoplites here.

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          55 min
        • How Can the Pentagon Trust AI?

          How is the DoD thinking about deploying AI? What are the challenges and opportunities involved in building out AI assurance?

          To discuss, I brought on Dr. Jane Pinelis, Chief AI Engineer The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She was previously the Chief of the Test, Evaluation, and Assessment branch at the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). Prior to joining the JAIC, Dr. Pinelis served as the Director of Test and Evaluation for USDI’s Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, better known as Project Maven.

          Cohosting is Karson Elmgren of CSET.

          Outtro music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgzGwKwLmgM

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          1 hr 1 min
        • EMERGENCY POD: Qin Gone!

          Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China’s #2 diplomat.

          To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!)

          We discuss:

          • Precisely what we know and don’t know about l’affaire Qin;
          • How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities;
          • Qin’s possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way;
          • How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin’s treatment resembles theirs; and
          • Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don’t even know what’s going on!


            • Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston

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            33 min

          About ChinaEconTalk

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          A weekly conversation exploring China's economy and tech scene. Guests include a wide range of policy analysts, business professionals, journalists, and academics. A SupChina production, hosted by…