The world’s population keeps growing and passed 8 billion in late 2022, but China’s population is now falling. There are concerns over what that means for its economy and the wider global economy. Is Paul Krugman right that a falling population means a weak Chinese economy? Show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes discuss the possible implications of a shrinking China, as well as global population projections out to 2100. The conversation touches on the environmental impact of a growing population and how well-placed we are to manage environmental challenges.    

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What’s covered in EP174

• The world’s population is on the rise and passed 8 billion in November 2022 [4:24]
• Why post-war population growth was so strong [7:43]
• What does a declining Chinese population mean for the Chinese and global economies? [14:09]
• The importance of immigration in Australia population growth [19:27]
• How the world’s population will eventually level out  toward the end of the century [23:35]
• Can governments solve environmental challenges? Discussion of the hole in the ozone layer and the Montreal Protocol [30:09]
• Paul Krugman vs Dean Baker on the future of China [42:07]
• Tim asks how do you maintain a growth mindset in a declining population? How do you make it work? [47:25] 
• Will demographics and a weaker economy bring down the Chinese administration? [53:06] 

Links relevant to the conversation

UN World Population Prospects 2022 data

https://population.un.org/wpp/

Paul Krugman’s article “The problem(s) with China’s population drop”

https://themarketherald.com.au/the-problems-with-chinas-population-drop-2023-01-19/  

Dean Baker’s article “Paul Krugman, China’s Demographic Crisis, and the Which Way Is Up Problem in Economics”

https://cepr.net/paul-krugman-chinas-demographic-crisis-and-the-which-way-is-up-problem-in-economics/

China’s old-age dependency ratio

https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/Ratios/OADR/65plus/15-64/156

Stanford Business School article “Baby Bust: Could Population Decline Spell the End of Economic Growth?” discussing Charles I Jones views on the link between population, innovation, and economic growth

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/insights/baby-bust-could-population-decline-spell-end-economic-growth

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.