Host: Cindy Allen

Exile: Is the U.S. Being Traded Around?

In this week’s Cindy’s Version, Cindy Allen, CEO of TradeForce Multiplier, unpacks one of the busiest weeks we’ve seen in international trade—and frames it all through the lens of Taylor Swift’s song “Exile.” From fresh tariff threats to shifting alliances and possible government shutdowns, Cindy explains why it’s starting to feel like the United States is watching global trade move on without us.​

What You’ll Learn in This Episode:

New U.S. tariff threats tied to Cuban oil

Announcement of tariffs on countries that sell or buy oil from Cuba and why this may largely hit usual suspects like Venezuela and Russia.​

Trade partners going “around” the U.S.

How the UK’s outreach to China and Canada’s new deal with China signal a trend of countries pursuing their own economic interests directly with Beijing.​

Canada under pressure—again

Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Canadian goods over the China deal and the newer threat to decertify Canadian-made jets until Gulfstream aircraft are certified in Canada—and why both moves raise legal and practical questions.​

Shifting tariff landscapes

Guatemala and El Salvador trade deals and expected rate ranges.

Possible hike back to 25% on South Korean goods if their trade deal isn’t approved.

Potential rollback of the 25% tariff on India tied to Russian oil purchases.​

232 duties and a big valuation court fight

Why CBP centers are informally pushing an “all-in” cost model (materials, labor, manufacturing) for steel, aluminum, and now copper derivatives—and how that conflicts with the 232 declaration language.

The new Court of International Trade case challenging that interpretation and what it could mean for importers paying 232 on components.

Why many companies are considering filing protests now to preserve their rights pending the outcome—and why you need to talk to your own counsel.​

ACE refunds are coming—ready or not

Electronic refunds are set to go live February 6.

What importers need to do with their brokers and 4811 setup, and why brokers must confirm their own information is on file in ACE.

The big question: what happens to refunds if the setup is incomplete?​

EU deal on pause

Why the EU is putting its U.S. deal “on hold” and how that could trigger a return to higher tariffs if the U.S. responds like it has with South Korea.​

Hill updates: express couriers and DHS funding

A new bill proposal for simplified declarations on express shipments under 600 dollars, and what it could mean if you use or compete with express couriers.

The looming DHS/CBP funding issue, the likelihood of a shutdown, and what a shutdown typically means for cargo processing versus outreach and meetings.​

Why “Exile”?

By contrasting these two perspectives—like the two voices in the song—Cindy argues the U.S. risks finding itself “in exile” as trade partners build new frameworks around us, and warns that we’ve “seen this film before” in history with outcomes that weren’t ideal.​

Key Takeaways:

Expect more volatility in tariffs and trade relationships as the U.S. pushes assertive trade tools and partners seek alternative paths.​

Importers dealing with 232 duties on steel, aluminum, and copper inputs should closely watch the new court case and coordinate with counsel on protest strategy.​

ACE electronic refunds are an opportunity and a risk—data and 4811 setups must be right to avoid missing money you’re owed.​

Even in a shutdown, cargo should keep moving, but engagement with CBP and DHS will be limited.​

Strategically, the U.S. may be drifting into a kind of trade “exile”—and it’s critical for companies to understand both the domestic narrative and how the rest of the world is reacting.

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Presented by: Global Training Center​

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