Host: Cindy Allen

In this episode of Simply Trade – Cindy’s Version, Cindy Allen uses Taylor Swift’s “The Moment I Knew” to frame a sobering realization: the rest of the world is increasingly moving on with trade—without the United States at the center. She opens with concrete developments, including Canada and China finalizing a trade agreement as China becomes Canada’s number one trade partner, and a large EU delegation touring Asia (China, Vietnam, and others) to explore a broad EU–Asia trade bloc arrangement.​

On the policy front, Cindy notes the administration has walked back its threat to impose tariffs on NATO countries that opposed a U.S. move to “buy” Greenland, easing immediate sovereignty‑driven tension. But legislative activity is heating up: Senator Cassidy’s customs bill, a proposed import licensing regime (including possible restrictions on non‑resident importers) that could morph from “trusted trader” incentives into a broad tariff scheme, and a new proposal to apply a 20% flat rate on express courier imports, mirroring the postal model and positioned as a de minimis replacement. She explains how the elimination of de minimis has already hit express integrators hard—FedEx alone reported a one‑billion‑dollar “headwind,” with average de minimis values around 25 dollars now requiring full entries on vast volumes of low‑value packages.​

Cindy also touches on potential one‑year extensions of AGOA and the Haiti Help Act, still being tracked through budget legislation, and confirms the IEPA Supreme Court decision did not appear before the Court went out of session, pushing any announcement into mid‑to‑late February at the earliest. She warns that the longer the delay, the more likely a significantly drawn‑out process for any eventual tariff relief, even if importers prevail. Meanwhile, CBP continues ramping up 28s and enforcement on steel and aluminum 232s, with early, non‑binding indications from the Base Metals Center that raise new questions about how to back out raw material costs and properly calculate dutiable value—prompting AAEI to form a working group to engage CBP.​

The emotional core of the episode comes from Davos, where Cindy sees “the moment” the global system recognized a fundamental break: the U.S. arrived with a strong America‑First message that was audibly booed by attendees, while other leaders—especially Canada’s prime minister—signaled a deep sense of betrayal and a hard pivot toward building trade agreements around, rather than through, Washington. For Cindy, this is the moment the world “knew” the old gravitational pull of U.S. trade leadership may not return even after this administration or the next election cycle: global trade volumes and cooperation remain strong, but the center of gravity is shifting as partners organize new paths forward.​

What You’ll Learn in This Episode

Key new developments: Canada–China agreement, EU–Asia trade bloc talks, and the rollback of threatened NATO tariffs over Greenland.​

How proposed U.S. import licensing, non‑resident importer limits, and a 20% courier flat rate could reshape tariff burdens and de minimis workarounds.​

Why express couriers have been hit so hard by de minimis elimination, and what a flat‑rate model might change.​

The latest on IEPA Supreme Court timing, 232 steel/aluminum enforcement, and AAEI’s efforts to clarify valuation expectations.​

Why Davos 2026 may mark the “moment the world knew” U.S. trade leadership has fundamentally changed—and what that means for future agreements.​

Key Takeaways

Traditional allies are actively deepening trade with China and Asia, signaling a more multipolar trade system.​

U.S. legislative proposals could push more cost and complexity onto importers and express carriers, even as they seek new facilitation models.​

IEPA relief, if it comes, will likely be slow and process‑heavy; companies should not bank on quick cash refunds.​

Global forums like Davos are now openly questioning U.S. reliability as a trade partner, accelerating moves to diversify away from U.S. gravity.

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Presented by: Global Training Center​

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