Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts

How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverage types help him find mispriced player props, walks through correlated same game parlay reads, and covers how AI cuts his research time. Plus, how he reacts when a line moves against him, why he thinks top-down betting is drying up and pushing people toward originating, and answers to your mailbag questions on a long shot future, balancing life with the NBA grind, and how he reads questionable tags.

Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Off Script with Pips NBA, a professional NBA bettor from Croatia and former co-host of The Hammer's NBA channel. They also get into what grinds their gears this week and close with their +EV Moves Of The Week.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📺 dlee4three's 30 Teams in 30 Days: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvCmCplxXUcXuDh6pJSxMzA

🎙️ Calvin and Hobo interview: https://youtu.be/x50poL3Uv-A

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

12:58 - When Lines Move Against You

16:31 - The Future of Top-Down Betting

23:25 - Mailbag: Answering Your Questions

33:41 - What Grinds My Gears

40:00 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #NBAProps #OffScript

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Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.

Line data: Betstamp (Rob is a co-owner). NFL scores and historical closing lines: nflverse.

🟠 Track your bets and your CLV with Juice Reel, our network's bet tracking partner: [Juice Reel link]

🔴 Why Betting Without Watching The Market Is A Mistake: https://youtu.be/ZhNnPtayBoM

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

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SOCIALS

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The CLV Trophy

1:30 - PART 1: What Closing Line Value Actually Is

2:30 - Mistake 1: The Number Without the Price

3:15 - Mistake 2: Not Enough to Matter

4:25 - Why Raw Points Don't Work

5:19 - How Much You Beat It By (76,742 Bets)

7:37 - Why Good Bets Still Lose

9:22 - Sponsored by ProphetX

10:09 - PART 2: Is the Market Still Sharp?

12:29 - The Line Gets Sharper Through the Week

15:36 - PART 3: Fade or Follow the Big Moves?

19:21 - 261 Ways to Cut It

20:51 - The Moves Were Right

22:49 - What to Actually Do

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#ClosingLineValue #CLV #SportsBetting #NFL #CollegeFootball #BettingEducation

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Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week's plus EV moves.

Isaac Rose-Berman, a sharp sports bettor and responsible gaming advocate, joins Jacob Gramegna on Off Script to share how he's using AI to enhance his betting and trading.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

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SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

14:02 - Breaking News: NFL Asks Supreme Court To Review Prediction Market Case

21:33 - Mailbag: Your AI Questions

29:29 - What Grinds My Gears

36:35 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #AI #PredictionMarkets #SportsTrading #AIBetting

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Sharp bettor Thon Misser breaks down the MLB same game parlay angle that kickstarted his betting career: a pricing bug that turned round number totals into a free half run. He explains how adding any second leg to an over 6 moved the price to over 6.5, why he paired it with an under on triples from hitters who almost never get one, how it played out until a couple of unlucky days and a burned account, and what he would do differently today.

This is Legendary Loopholes on Circles Off, the series where sharp bettors share the unique edges from their past so you can apply the same thinking to your own betting. Jacob Gramegna sits down with Thon at BetBash to talk about why this kind of angle is out there for anyone willing to click around, and what every bettor can learn from it.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #MLB #SGP #SameGameParlay #BettingEdge

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Victor Wembanyama put his foot down this week, declaring he will never endorse a prediction market or sportsbook. That bold stance opens up a massive conversation about where the line should be drawn when athletes take those exact deals. From there, we jump into a wild NFL Week 4, unpacking the Patriots shocking the Bills and what Lamar Jackson's ankle injury means moving forward. We also react to that viral post raising alarms over high school students and gambling, before tackling a classic debate: is winning a survivor contest actually skill, or is it pure luck? Plus, Matt Kalish quietly deletes months of prediction market posts after relentless heat, and Sydney Sweeney makes waves by securing an equity deal with a prediction market platform.

Join Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg live as they dig into the biggest stories in sports betting and prediction markets this week.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

2:37 - NFL Week 4

28:28 - Joey Knish on Survivor Contest Winners

43:07 - Matt Kalish Deletes His Prediction Market Posts

51:41 - Wembanyama Rejects Betting Endorsements

1:03:18 - Viral Post on High School Gambling

1:11:07 - Sydney Sweeney's Equity Deal

1:18:41 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFL #Wembanyama

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Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

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SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The Trend

1:10 - Why Most Trends Are Noise

2:06 - Is There A Real Reason?

3:08 - Rebuild It Yourself

4:47 - Find The Right Comparison

7:09 - Look Past The Win/Loss Record

10:26 - Test The Explanation

12:54 - How Many Other Trends Are There?

14:40 - Is The Market Already On It?

17:09 - Sponsored by ProphetX

18:35 - What I Think About This One

19:26 - What To Do Next Time

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

Trading sports event contracts involves substantial risk of loss and is not appropriate for all investors. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consider whether trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial circumstances. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market. Full risk disclosure available at prophetx.co/risk.

#NFL #ThursdayNightFootball #SportsBetting #BettingTrends #AgainstTheSpread

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NFL Week 3 delivered chaos, the Steelers upset the 2-0 Bengals in Pittsburgh, Josh Allen and the Bills survived five turnovers to beat the Chargers, and Drake Maye's turnover problems continued in New England. Over in golf, Team USA pulled off a historic comeback at the Presidents Cup, erasing a four-point deficit to win 17-13 at Medinah for their 11th straight title. Plus reaction to the MLB regular season wrapping up and the postseason field taking shape.

On the industry side, a federal appeals court dealt a major blow to prediction markets, ruling that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate sports-event contracts under state gambling law, a decision that deepens a growing circuit split likely headed for the Supreme Court. A new investigation also revealed how one major sportsbook's VIP program rewarded a reporter posing as a problem gambler, inviting him into their VIP program within 24 hours of a night spent chasing losses. And in Brazil, the president signed a measure banning sports betting deposits and advertising days before the country's election, prompting backlash from top football clubs who rely on betting sponsorships.

Plus, a look at using betting partners to get comfortable with bigger bet sizes, and the Chopping Block. Jacob is joined by Rob, Geoff, and Isaac Rose-Berman, in studio this week, to break it all down.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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SOCIALS

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FOLLOW

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🔵 Follow Rob - https://x.com/robpizzola

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🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42

OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, Geoff Fienberg, and Isaac Rose-Berman

2:26 - NFL Week 3

19:50 - Other Weekend Recap

30:31 - Prediction Markets Lose In Ohio

40:19 - Sportsbook VIP Exposé

50:39 - Reading Your Comments

1:05:19 - Using Betting Partners To Scale Up

1:10:47 - Brazil Bans Betting

1:22:51 - Who Actually Bought GRP's Survivor Entry?

1:33:24 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #PredictionMarkets #NFLWeek3 #ResponsibleGaming #Ohio #Brazil #PresidentsCup

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Thon Misser joins Off Script to break down the NBA season simulator he's been rebuilding this offseason, how it prices different tiers of players, and what changes after a summer that saw the Raptors add Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers bring in LeBron James. From there the conversation moves into the latest push to bring margin trading to prediction markets and what that means for how those markets get used, from pricing futures to gauging elections.

Plus a mailbag stacked with viewer questions, this week's Grinds My Gears rants, and the usual EV Moves of the Week to close things out.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

📊 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW

LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/

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SOCIALS

🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq

🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/

FOLLOW

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ

🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Work In Progress Check

10:56 - Breaking News

20:14 - Mailbag: Your Questions

28:46 - What Grinds My Gears

34:57 - +EV Moves Of The Week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#NBA #NBABetting #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #OffScript #KawhiLeonard #LeBronJames #PredictionMarkets

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Can sharps actually beat a prediction market maker? Chris "Flup" Dierkes breaks down what market makers really do, why new exchanges need in-house liquidity, how auto-movers and traders manage directional risk when the flow hits one side, and what the CFTC's proposed bona fide market making rules could mean for the role. He also takes on the biggest misconceptions, including whether market makers can see who they're trading against.

Recorded at BetBash, Jacob Gramegna sits down with Chris Dierkes, Pro Sports Bettor and Trader, for a look at the other side of the counter on prediction markets, and why Flup thinks rebate and volume incentive deals should be posted publicly.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $50, get $75: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

🔵 Sign up with EDGE Boost - https://www.edgeboost.bet/guide?oid=553&affid=117

🟠 JuiceReel picks - https://links.juicereel.com/friendRequest?redirectUri=anVpY2VyZWVsOi8vYWRkRnJpZW5kL1RoZUhhbW1lci85OWE0YTA2NDRiMDIyYzhjZmU2MDI0YTk2YWRiNWFhOS00N2NlZWEzZTg1YTdmOTFlOGQxN2JiYzhlZmRjZDlhMA%3D%3D

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LINKS

🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

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NFL Week 2 sports betting reaction gets broken down live on Circle Back, alongside a New York Times report alleging a sportsbook used an AI model to score customers by expected losses and aim bonuses and free bets at them, which the sportsbook disputes. Is +EV overrated? We debate expected value betting and whether the hype matches the results. We also react to Vanderbilt vs NC State and what's being called the biggest UFC upset ever, then run through Chopping Block quick hits including the Off Script debut and a comedy tier list.

Jacob Gramegna hosts today's Circle Back and is joined by Rob Pizzola, CEO of The Hammer and pro sports bettor, and Jason Cooper, host of The Hammer Daily, to break it all down.

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📅 New episodes of Circle Back every Monday, Interviews/Industry Insights/Standalone videos every Wednesday, and new episodes Off Script every Friday, all at 1:30 PM ET on their respective days

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🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ

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OUR OTHER CHANNELS

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🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ

📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ

SHOW INDEX

0:00 Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Jason Cooper

1:19 - NFL Week 2

28:46 - Other Weekend Recap

40:28 - Sportsbooks Using AI To Target Losers?

50:26 - NFL Bans Prediction Markets

55:26 - "Just Bet -124s That Are -800 Everywhere Else"

1:30:40 - Is +EV Overrated?

1:17:51 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #CircleBack #CirclesOff #NFLWeek2 #UFC #PlusEV

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