In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, China joins Circles Off to break down one of the most unique player prop edges of the last decade. Starting around 2016, China built a reputation moving college football player prop lines at a major sportsbook, sometimes 60 to 80 props a week. When a second sportsbook entered the market and began scraping those openers days later, it created a two season window where China could rebet his own moved lines at their original stale price, all while getting labeled a "fish" and handed higher limits instead of getting cut off. It's a look back at how legalization, lazy odds-making, and old school leg work created a window that most people never even noticed.

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Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

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NFL weekend chaos, Week Zero heartbreak, and plenty of drama.

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This week on Circle Back, host Jacob Gramegna is joined by Porter, Isaac Rose-Berman, and Shipper to break down three stories shaking up the prediction markets and sports betting world. The crew dives into a New York Times report that Donald Trump Jr. privately urged a room of Republican state attorneys general to back off regulating prediction markets, arguing that state pushback was being driven by gambling companies protecting their own turf rather than genuine consumer concerns. The panel unpacks what this closed-door pitch means for the ongoing battle between state and federal oversight of the industry, and why prediction markets have become such a political flashpoint heading into the fall.

From there, the conversation shifts to a major shift in how prediction markets present their pricing, as platforms move away from familiar American-odds formatting toward straight percentages, a change that's got bettors adjusting their mental math and wondering if more platforms will follow. The show wraps with a look at sharp originators pulling their models and ratings out of public view, as some of the most respected names in the space decide their edge is too valuable to keep sharing for free, and what that shift could mean for bettors who've relied on that public data for years.

This episode also marks the final edition of Circle Back Thursday. After more than a year on the air, this is the last time the show will run in this Thursday slot, though Circle Back Monday continues as normal and new content is on the way to fill the Friday spot.

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The FINAL edition of Circle Back Thursday

1:43 - Originators are going private on prediction markets

11:04 - Prediction Odds begin to remove American Odds

27:28 - Donald Trump Jr. tells Republican state attorneys general to “back off”

36:21 - RAS early releases

42:15 - Worst settlement rules for fights?

50:11 - Taylor Mathis strikes again

53:54 - Chopping Block: A trip down memory lane

1:09:38 - Thank you for watching Circle Back Thursday!

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SharpBetting #TrumpJr #BettingNews #ProphetX

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This episode is presented by ProphetX. Our guest is ProphetX co-founder Jake Benzaquen — we address the relationship directly at the top of the episode.

Jake Benzaquen co-founded ProphetX eight years ago, long before "prediction market" was a phrase anyone outside finance used. In June, ProphetX became the first sports-native platform to win CFTC approval as a regulated exchange — and this conversation covers everything that came with it: the sweepstakes years, the $35 million raise, what's shipping on the product side this football season, and the affiliated market making debate that's dividing the entire industry.

Rob also presses Jake on the questions that don't have easy answers — the investor overlap on ProphetX's own platform, the 18-vs-21 age gap between prediction markets and sportsbooks, and what happens if the Supreme Court rules against CFTC jurisdiction entirely.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Opener + Disclosure

1:16 - Who is Jake Benzaquen?

5:08 - The sweepstakes chapter

9:07 - Getting CFTC approval and launching nationwide

19:45 - ProphetX vs the giants - the honest ecosystem conversation

26:09 - The product: payments, RFQ, cash out, the 2.0 app

42:30 - Affiliated market making: the industry's biggest conflict

52:12 - The B2B play

1:02:02 - State vs federal: the regulatory war

1:16:11 - The uncomfortable questions

1:29:43 - The next five years

1:31:33 - +EV / -EV moves, advice to former self

1:38:07 - Outro

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#ProphetX #PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CFTC #CirclesOff #TheHammer #SportsTrading #BettingExchange #AffiliatedMarketMaking #NFLBetting

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Browns recap covering Deshaun Watson's postgame comments after getting booed plus the Sanders update, and Dae'Quan Wright's stunning exit from the NFL back to LSU; Ashton Jeanty's injury scare and what it means for fantasy owners; Scottie Scheffler playing through hand, foot & mouth disease at the BMW Championship and whether golf needs injury reporting; Establish The Run shutting down their pick-selling service; a separate wild stat showing MLB favorites went 15-0 in a day; the Raheem Palmer/Pam Moldanado interaction; plus Chopping Block.

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Prediction markets are having a moment of reckoning. Sharp bettors are starting to call out PM platforms for the same behavior that made traditional sportsbooks notorious: squeezing out the very winners who helped legitimize the space in the first place. From new maker fees quietly eating into sharp profits to a "pro gambler arc" meme capturing the entire cycle of boom, backlash, and burnout, this week's Circle Back digs into whether prediction markets are already repeating the mistakes of the sportsbooks they were supposed to replace.

Host Jacob Gramegna is joined live by Joey Knish, Thon Misser, and Peanut to break down the fee structures, the hypocrisy accusations flying between market makers and sharp takers, and what it all means for anyone trying to get a long-term edge in this new market. Presented by ProphetX.

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Peanut, & Joey Knish

1:31 - Was Kalish Right All Along?

9:56 - Market Makers vs. Sharp Takers

17:38 - The Pro Gambler Arc

23:41 - +EV Move Of The Week

31:19 - NFL Adopting The March Madness Schedule

36:50 - The Wrong One To Receive An Affiliate Badge

44:16 - Announcement

46:57 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #CircleBack #ProphetX #SharpBettors #SportsBettingPodcast

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A post about an MIT professor's coin flip (win $125, lose $100) went viral claiming that refusing the bet was the smart move. The psychology is real. The advice is backwards. This is the difference between risk aversion as wisdom and risk aversion as a leak... and the one number from the story that proves it.

In this video, Rob breaks down why a single coin flip with a roughly 55% implied win probability in your favor still gets rejected by most people, why that instinct is completely rational at life changing stakes and completely irrational at dinner money stakes, and why the $43 students were willing to pay to walk away from the bet is the most damning detail in the entire story.

Then Rob shows the fix: what happens to that exact same flip once you take it 100 times, then 1,000 times, and why repetition (not bravery) is the actual engine behind every profitable sports bettor, market maker, and insurance company that has ever existed.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF. Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

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0:00 - The Viral Flip

1:07 - The Full Story (and the $43)

2:10 - The Part That's Actually True

3:17 - Where It All Falls Apart

4:15 - Paying a Tax on Your Own Fear

5:11 - One Flip vs One Hundred

6:44 - The Dividing Line

8:39 - Sponsored by ProphetX

9:46 - Which Situation Are You In?

10:53 - Circle Back, Mondays 1PM EST

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

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NFL preseason line movement is under the microscope after a wild stretch of results: teams that have moved 1.5+ points or more on the spread this season are 0-8, and 23-51 since 2024, according to Big Al McMordie's numbers. That trend has reignited a fierce debate about whether closing line value still holds up as a betting principle, with some pointing to small sample sizes and starters entering games as the real driver behind the movement. Also on deck: reactions to Pat McAfee's surprise album release, plus the fallout from Circa CEO Derek Stevens' pointed comments questioning the legitimacy and tax structure of peer-to-peer prediction markets.

Jacob Gramegna hosts this episode of Circle Back alongside Rob Pizzola and Geoff Fienberg for another edition of Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Circle Back w/ Jacob Gramegna, Rob Pizzola, and Geoff Fienberg

1:18 - NFL Preseason CLV debate

16:35 - Pat McAfee dropped an album

35:19 - Breaking News on Kawhi Leonard

42:12 - Derek Stevens sounds off on prediction markets

52:29 - Gen Z is moving from stocks to sports betting

1:03:11 - CFTC probe into "mention markets"

1:11:17 - Hypotheticals

1:30:16 - Chopping Block

Disclaimer: The content presented in this show is intended for entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed are those of the hosts and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of any individuals or organizations mentioned. Statements made about public figures or entities are based on publicly available information and are not intended to harm or defame any person or business. This show relies on the fair use of social media posts, which are presented in good faith for the purpose of commentary and criticism. Viewers are advised to form their own opinions.

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#CLV #NFLBetting #ClosingLineValue #SportsBetting #NFLPreseason #CircleBack #CirclesOff #ProphetX #PatMcAfee #DerekStevens #PredictionMarkets #TheHammer

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Prediction markets and sportsbooks might look identical on the surface. Same lines, same moneylines, same spreads. But legally and structurally, they're nothing alike. In this conversation, Jacob sits down with Captain Jack Andrews to break down why prediction markets don't meet the legal definition of gambling the way sportsbooks do, walking through the "chance, consideration, and reward" test, the Wire Act's business-of-betting standard, and why the operator side, not the consumer side, is what actually matters. They also dig into the "Duck Test," the case that could eventually land in front of the Supreme Court, and why the outcome could determine whether prediction markets are regulated state by state or protected under federal preemption. If you've ever wondered whether prediction markets are just sportsbooks in disguise, this is the conversation that settles it.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

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LINKS

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SHOW INDEX

00:00 – Prediction Markets Are Not Sportsbooks

01:18 – The 3 Components Of Gambling

04:38 – The Business Of Betting & The Duck Test

06:29 – ProphetX

07:29 – Same Bet, Different Mechanics

08:59 – The Real Goal: Getting to the Supreme Court

11:45 – The Sports Traders Union

13:02 – Fundamental Fairness

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#PredictionMarkets #SportsBetting #Sportsbooks #CFTC #SportsTradingUnion #BettingRegulation #CirclesOff #ProphetX

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Rishi Bets has been posting on X since 2011 with over 35,000 posts and a following nowhere near what that volume would suggest, and it's exactly why the account works. He posts his bet sizes, his wins, and his losses in real time, no cherry-picking. Rob Pizzola sits down with Rishi for a full interview covering his case for prediction markets over traditional sportsbooks, the World Cup position that went horribly wrong and the choice to post the whole thing publicly, where the line should be on which markets can and can't exist, and a run of hot takes on the sports betting community that don't pull punches.

🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/

📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!

LINKS

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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - Intro

1:13 - Who is Rishi?

11:24 - How he actually bets

29:37 - The case for prediction markets

58:13 - The Mbappé mistake

1:12:11 - First big loss

1:17:30 - On being stubborn

1:25:43 - Rapid round: things that trigger Rishi

1:34:00 - Sharp vs recreational, the bigger picture

1:40:07 - +EV and -EV moves of the week

Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.

#SportsBetting #PredictionMarkets #ProphetX #RishiBets #CirclesOff #TheHammerBettingNetwork #WorldCupBetting #SharpBettor #SportsBettingPodcast #BettingCommunity

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