We are joined by Chris "Flupnolide" Dierkes - the most profitable bettor on Kalshi this month and a professional bettor not afraid to bet huge on great spots.

Chris talks about scaling his betting from being a solo-bettor using OddsJam to running one of the bigger groups in operation. He also enjoys mixing it up on Twitter under the handle @flupnolide where you can find him posting some of the biggest bets that hit the exchanges. 

If you don't listen to this episode you must not like putting down big money on huge edges!

Chris on Twitter: https://x.com/flupnolide

0:00 Intro & Start of Betting
11:30 Rundown of Flup's Operation
22:00 Flup's Superpower: Account Priming
39:00 Benefit of Winning Circa Survivor
44:45 Why do content?
53:45 $300k Sinner Bet
1:00:00 Gambling Twitter 0 Poker IQ
1:06:00 Edge Graveyard
1:29:00 Everything Prediction Markets
2:05:00 Hot Takes & Bayesian Updates

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

After two weeks of bad news - the boys start to feel some hope this episode and explain how they have improved their betting during breaks in their sports.  With the sports calendar at its lightest, they dig into why the offseason is a high-leverage window for bettors to optimize their workflows, trim dead weight, and tackle big projects. From cleaning code and cutting distractions to poking around new betting markets, they share how smart time use now sets you up for a stronger fall.

00:00 – Offseason Mindset
06:30 – Cut, Clean, Optimize
14:00 – Big Projects That Pay Off
22:00 – Poking Around New Markets
33:30 – Learning, Documentation & Skill Building
48:00 – Industry News & What’s Next

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Are you relying on twitter to tell you if you should quite gambling or not following the gambling tax disaster in the BBB?

In this episode we sit down with Gary Kondler of Kondler & Associates - the gambling industry leading tax and consulting firm - to discuss the changes in the bill.

From the myths that exploded on Twitter to the real-life tax nightmares facing poker pros, slot whales, and DFS grinders, Gary walks us through exactly what’s changing, who’s most at risk, and how to protect yourself. Whether you're a solo bettor, a casual casino-goer, or part of a syndicate, this episode could save you thousands—and a major audit headache.

Kondler & Associates: https://kondlercpa.com/

00:00 – The Big Change: Understanding the BBB Bill
09:00 – Real Tax Impact: Examples That Hurt
21:00 – Filing as a Pro vs. Amateur
36:00 – Sessions Method, W2Gs & Audit Risk
51:00 – State-Level Chaos & Planning for 2026

1:12:00 - GP & SP React & Speculate Wildly

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

 This week, GP and SP go deep on what's arguably the most pivotal week for the gambling world in years. From legislative crackdowns and lawsuits to tax chaos and rigging scandals, the crew delivers a comprehensive State of the Union for sports betting and its gray-market cousins. If you care about betting—legally, professionally, or recreationally—this is a must-listen. 

0:00 – Opening Thoughts & Why This Episode Exists
5:30 – New Jersey Proxy Betting Bill
20:30 – The Sweeps Crackdown
29:30 – Prediction Markets: The New Gray Market Darling
38:30 – Underdog vs. California?
55:30 – The Federal Tax Bomb That Could Kill Sports Betting
1:08:30 – Malik Beasley’s Sketchy Rebounds Line Movement
1:15:30 – Fanatics Passes on Illinois Tax Hike (to You)
1:18:30 – SP’s “Bug” Speech
1:20:30 – Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

We’re so back with part two of Flaming Hot Sharp Sports Betting Takes! We offer some preeeety spicy opinions on:

• Why executing an edge beats finding one
• Embracing high-hold markets and "one-way" bets
• The value of betting first, asking questions later
• Why hating touts is no longer cool
• Whether being a pro bettor is a legit data science career
• Why going public with your gambling identity can pay off
• And… how much money it would take for us to quit betting forever?

00:00 – Intro
01:30 – Hot Take: Execution > Finding Edges
12:00 – Hot Take: High Hold = High Opportunity
21:00 – Hot Take: Bet First, Ask Questions Later
32:00 – Hot Take: Hating Touts Isn’t Cool Anymore
40:00 – Hot Take: Pro Betting is Good Data Science Job
44:00 – Hot Take: Why Being Public Helps
58:00 – News Roundup (Poker Scandal, FanDuel, CA Ban)
01:16:00 – Q&A: Working with Mules
01:36:00 – Q&A: How Much to Quit Betting Forever?
01:43:00 – Q&A: Model Graveyard + Project Ideas
02:01:00 – Teaser: Bayesian Update of the Week

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.

His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).

This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds!

Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon

0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro
10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting
51:23 News
1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick6
1:18:45 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.

This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.

You can find Akash in the GP Discord under the name joshroyale

00:00 Show Intro 
01:50 Yankees Front Office 
11:05 Transition from Sports Analytics to Betting  
23:30 Data Pipelines, Friction Reduction and Useful Features  
39:45 AI vs. Pro Sports Bettor
49:50 Modeling Philosophy: Transparency vs. Black Boxes  
1:11:35 Handling Downswings and Model Validation  
1:17:00 News Roundup: IL Tax, FanDuel Ban, Polymarket x Twitter  
1:30:50 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?

The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!

This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.

0:00 Intro
3:50 Distributions
1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike
1:18:44 Poker Scandal
1:39:33 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa)

SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater.

Questions range from how did the hosts learn to model to if SPs DraftKings VIP vacation is real?

0:00 How to Win at DFS
41:50 Underdog/ ETR RTA 2.0
1:00:27 Wyoming says you're a cheater
1:08:27 Q&A
1:11:15 Big liquidity on exchanges means...?
1:22:00 How did we learn how to model sports?
1:39:54 Is market efficiency inevitable?

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks