NERD ALERT!!

We get back to our roots today and talk about how to go about finding stats that are predictive in sports modelling. The episode includes a deep dive into how Kalshi settled & communicated their "Khamenei out as leader" market. We touch on the issues w/ "last traded price" settlement and the similarities to the Cardi B. rules debacle. 

0:00 Predictive Sports Stats

31:45 Iran Leader Kalshi Market

45:50 Rest of News.

54:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

*This is a re-broadcast episode because of being unable to record because of travel. MANY FAMOUS PODCASTS DO THIS SO IT MUST BE OKAY. This episode is a good listen for those who are looking to build a basic sports model that spits out a useful number.

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Today we have on college junior & top prediction market trader Eric (Egzee). Egzee started on OddsJam and quickly worked his way up to the top of Kalshi leaderboards as one of the biggest RFQ market makers in sports. He defends his decision to take an internship at a respected quant firm, and walks us through how he manages one of the biggest Kalshi MM operations as a solo-operator in college. Really mind blowing stuff here - must listen, we learned a lot from Eric.

0:00 Intro & Sports Betting Start

18:00 Transition to Kalshi

55:00 RFQs and Advanced Automation

1:21:00 School & Deciding to do an Internship

1:38:00 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

The boys start to think insider trading MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM when thousands of minimum wage employees already know the resolution of 50 million contract markets. SP & GP also recap their superbowl betting experience on Kalshi and take questions.

0:00 Intro

1:45 GP & SP's Super Bowl betting

27:15 Cardi B's Epic Performance

47:00 Insider Trading on PMs

1:01:14 Rest of News

13:40 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

IN THIS EPISODE WE ARE JOINED BY ESTEEMED GAMBLING TWITTER POSTER AND ORIGINATOR MR PEANUTBETTOR. LISTEN TO HEAR MANY SMART THINGS AND SOME FUNNY JOKES.

0:00 Intro

10:15 Trading at Deck Prism

27:00 Originating

57:00 Prediction Markets

1:18:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

A heated debate broke out on Twitter between sharp bettors. On one end Establish the Run, a well respected business that sells information to bettors. On the other - sharp sports bettors who either use or have to deal with that information in their market.

This debate highlights the fundamental issues that come with selling good information in sports betting, and more broadly the best way to monetize sharp information (JUST BET IT BRO v. Selling)

0:00 Intro

2:15 ETR & The Challenge of Sharp Touting

43:45 News

1:00:15 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

This week we interview long-time professional gambler Adam aka BeagleBets (https://x.com/thebeaglebets).

Adam quickly rose to the top of the Heads Up SNG ladder, playing $5k buy-ins before dropping out of college to pursue poker full time. From there his career spanned many eras, which got him to where he is today: betting NBA Player Props and betting live sports. Adam is a very kind to share an honest account of the ups and downs of life as a professional bettor, along with advice to those who want to do this full-time but maintain a family and personal life. So much fun to record this one.

0:00 Intro

2:30 Start with advantage play

5:00 Full-time poker

13:15 Adding sports when poker got tougher

22:30 Building sims & scaling sports betting

30:15 Manually betting NBA player props

50:30 Transition to live betting

1:04:20 How to have a long betting career

1:21:40 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

In this episode the boys talk about how to go about selecting props & derivatives markets to focus on and how to get started w/ modeling these. The Pick6 past-post scandal takes up a good chunk of the news and the Q&A is very meaty!

0:00 How to Pick Props to Bet

27:00 DK Pick6 Past-post

45:45 Other News

1:01:45 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

You may know him from Bet The Process. You may know him as Dogname atop the Kalshi leaderboard. You may know him as the best golf bettor (RIP GP) around...

Rufus Peabody joins the show this week to talk about his betting philosophy and his recent adventure into prediction markets. He's been winning at sports betting since 2008, and is still at the very top of the betting ecosystem today. Must listen!

0:00 Intro

2:00 Starting in Betting

17:00 Going out on Own

23:00 Getting Started w/ Golf

28:30 Exploring New Sports

43:00 What is Rufus' edge?

1:101:15 Prediction Markets

1:32:55 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013

We cap off the year with a fun episode where SP and GP recap their 2025 betting year before setting some 2026 goals. The episode ends with 2026 industry predictions and some sappy feelings.

0:00 Intro

6:00 2025 Recap

22:10 2026 "Ins & Outs"

1:07:30 2026 Predictions

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj
Follow GP on Twitter: https://x.com/goldenpants013