This week we learn how to make more money gambling from the lessons of "The Reverend" Thomas Bayes.

His theorem is the backbone of every successful sports bettor (even if they don't know it).

This week we walk through examples of priors, posteriors and general Bayesian betting hygiene. It's more electric than it sounds!

Andrew Mack's Book: Amazon

0:00 Bayesian Thinking Intro
10:05 Bayes in Sports Betting
51:23 News
1:07:30 SP v. DK Pick6
1:18:45 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Second guest episode of the SP era - with a guy living the dream. Akash worked in the front offices of the New York Yankees and Miami Dolphins as well as a Google data scientist before leaving it all behind to be a full-time bettor.

This builds on our recent modeling episodes as we take a jump from simple/ regression based models into the AI/ML blackbox.

You can find Akash in the GP Discord under the name joshroyale

00:00 Show Intro 
01:50 Yankees Front Office 
11:05 Transition from Sports Analytics to Betting  
23:30 Data Pipelines, Friction Reduction and Useful Features  
39:45 AI vs. Pro Sports Bettor
49:50 Modeling Philosophy: Transparency vs. Black Boxes  
1:11:35 Handling Downswings and Model Validation  
1:17:00 News Roundup: IL Tax, FanDuel Ban, Polymarket x Twitter  
1:30:50 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?

The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!

This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.

0:00 Intro
3:50 Distributions
1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike
1:18:44 Poker Scandal
1:39:33 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Feeling overwhelmed when considering the jump from +EV betting to building your own model?

We don't blame you. The little content there is out there on how to get started makes it sound impossible. But the reality is, in the beginning, it's rather straightforward.

In this episode, the boys help you get started with your first sports betting model before getting into the news and Q&A

0:00 Intro
2:30 How to Build Sports Models
55:51 News
1:15:30 Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

GP slowly realizes he's a DFS fish as he recaps his high stakes PGA Championship lineup building strategy to SP. SP breaks down what a winning sports bettor needs to do to win in DFS (and vice-versa)

SP then weighs in on Underdog allowing RTA following GP's rant last episode and the boys discuss why the state of Wyoming determined anyone who wins betting is a cheater.

Questions range from how did the hosts learn to model to if SPs DraftKings VIP vacation is real?

0:00 How to Win at DFS
41:50 Underdog/ ETR RTA 2.0
1:00:27 Wyoming says you're a cheater
1:08:27 Q&A
1:11:15 Big liquidity on exchanges means...?
1:22:00 How did we learn how to model sports?
1:39:54 Is market efficiency inevitable?

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

GP flies solo this week and takes the opportunity to ramble on about his journey from mediocre poker player to pretty good sports bettor. (This includes a quick double-up on the signing bonus he got in business school)

The news is dominated by the Real Time Assistance tool ETR released for Underdog best ball drafts. If you think that's the story - you're wrong. Because Underdog comes out and says they ALLOW this type of RTA in a move that blows the mind of anyone who's ever played online poker.

Q&A then goes into why GP doesn't plug GP Picks+ on the pod and some other odds and ends.

Remember - all things related to the podcast stem from the free discord at goldenpants.com

0:00 GP Origin Story
31:40 Key moments & lifestyle changes that lead to success
42:05 Underdog allows ETR's real-time assistance tool
1:04:00 Penn boardroom drama
1:09:00 What do you say you do for a living?
1:12:05 Why do you not plug GP Picks+?
1:26:40 How to find balance without set hours

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

This episode has it all. GP's childish morning routine, what music you should listen to while modeling, and some hot takes based on a cursory glance at the news.

The Q&A is dominated by a great question at the end regarding how achievable year-over-year profits are by someone who never models or scales a betting group.

Remember to join the discord (link below) if you want your question on a future episode. The discord is free and we answer almost every question - so hop and it participate in the show!

0:00 Day/ Week in Life of a Pro/Semi-Pro Bettor
39:39 AI beats Sean Perry, are we doomed?
48:07 Sweeps & prediction market update
1:09:00 Mass gaming wants to void Russia
1:18:35 Biggest leak of good bettors?
1:31:15 How to calc a middle?
1:37:37 Will Fliff pay & bet more to increase limits?
1:45:00 Can you make long-term money w/o model or betting group?

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

"How can I make my accounts last longer?"

This is the question de jour - and in this episode, we discuss both answers to this question AND if this is even the right question to be asking...

We also spend a lot of time discussing Caesers stiffing Josk McPeek $800k. This leads to interesting discussions on "when is a bet a bet", kiosk jamming, slow cashouts, and more.

Then some great Q&A that tries to get us to stir the pot. Did we take the bait?

0:00 Intro
3:18 Account Limits & Increasing Longevity
35:15 Caesars $800k Stiff 
1:12:30 Kalshi Taking State Gaming Scalps
1:16:50 Why did Sanders fall in the draft?
1:21:35 What is a good partnership split?
1:27:23 Is GP coming back to Twitter?
1:31:50 Outlook on betting & surprises looking back
1:50:42 Overrated and underrated sports bettors

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

Very special 100th episode where GP and SP reflect on the current sports betting ecosystem, the goal of the podcast and the best way to incorporate sports betting content into your process.

News includes a game-changing CFTC chair nomination, debate over a void at ProphetX, and the SAFE act keeps marching us towards our eventual doom.

To cap it off - the longest Q&A in podcast history. We took all the questions this week in honor of the 100th episode. If you want to join the discord and ask questions next week - join for free at goldenpants.com 


0:00 Intro
2:33 Lessons from GPs content evolution
17:40 How to best consume gambling content
39:11 News
1:03:05 Longest listener Q&A of all-time

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

0:00 Intro
1:20 Backtesting - All you need to know
40:08 News
1:09:00 Listener Q&A

Welcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.

My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/

Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__Proj

Want to work with my betting group?: [email protected]

Want 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks