Cocktail Investing

The December quarter earnings season has moved into higher gear with more than 250 companies reporting this week. With roughly 15% of the S&P 500 having issued its reports, the results are falling short of historical comparisons while the earnings outlook for 2019 continues to be revised lower. On this episode of the podcast we discuss the implications as well as some of the thematic nuggets shared by Proctor & Gamble (PG) and IBM (IBM) that confirm our Rise of the New Middle-Class, Disruptive Innovators and Safety & Security investing themes. We also share our latest findings on the economy, US-China trade relations and several thematic signals.

The thematic signals for this week span our Digital Lifestyle investing theme as we explain why we think Netflix (NFLX) is right to be scared of not Hulu but Fortnite. Our Digital Lifestyle theme meshes with Aging of the Population as the use of sensors and other technologies are being used to keep tabs and assist our aging loved ones. Beer may be a shrinking Guilty Pleasure of choice in the US as consumers continue to flock to wine and other alternatives. We discuss the implications of this that include brewers such as Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) looking into cannabis-infused drinks with the help of Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) in order to court new consumers or lure old ones back.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
• Thematic Signals: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/thematic-signals/

The 4Q 2018 earnings season has begun and thus far we've had a number of high profile companies, including Apple (AAPL), Samsung, Ford (F), Sherwin Williams (SHW), and Macy's (M), preannounce weaker than expected results for the quarter. This follows the continued flow of economic data pointing to a slowing global economy. All of this makes for a tenuous earnings season as the velocity of those reports kicks into high gear over the next few weeks.

We discuss all of that on this week's podcast and also share several thematic signals that have caught our attention. These span our Aging of the Population, Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Rise of the New Middle-Class and Guilty Pleasure investing themes. Some of the companies making noise in these signals are Apple, Microsoft (MSFT), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), and Yum Brands' (YUM) Pizza Hut. Tune into what we have to say about those signals and how they confirm the tailwinds associated with those investing themes.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
• Thematic Signals: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/thematic-signals/

With roughly a handful of trading days left in 2018, Tematica's mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, trace back some of the pivotal events of the last year that have been the primary drivers behind where the global economy, geo-political tensions, and the stock market are today. It started with the signing of US tax reform and finished with yesterday's December Fed rate hike and revised guidance, with a smattering of US-China trade, Brexit, Italy, corporate debt, global liquidity, and much more in between. As Chris and Lenore share, the issues that have plagued the market over the last several months are likely to do so as we close the books on 2018 and get ready for the upcoming December quarter earnings season. Unlike this time last year, when companies could lean on a tax reform and its benefits to issue an upbeat outlook, this time around we see a number of headwinds that will likely have companies and investors rethinking both economic and EPS growth prospects.

Programming note: On the program you will hear some background noise from time to time, which we chalk up to the connection we had between the US and Ireland. Given the timing ahead of the holidays that will bring things to a grinding halt over the next two weeks, we've opted to share our thoughts and musings anyway so you can enter 2019 as prepared as possible. – Lenore & Chris

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting
• Thematic Signals: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/thematic-signals/

The headlines and the markets have been heavily focused this week on the rising risk that the United Kingdom will exit the European Union without any agreement. Prime Minister Theresa May just barely managed to hold onto her job after a vote of no confidence but has been politically battered, much like Germany's Angela Merkel, not to mention French President Macron's horrific weekend during which Paris dealt with violent and destructive riots protesting against his government. European leadership is increasingly weak which is not good for markets.

This week Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research speaks with Marco Caneva on how Brexit affects the economy of the UK and the European Union in ways in which many not realize, creating major headwinds to both economies and exacerbating the Middle Class Squeeze, one of Tematica Research's investing themes. They also discuss how the European Central Bank's zero and negative interest rate policies (ZIRP and NIRP) have affect investors, businesses and the economy.

Marco was born and raised in Italy, was an investment banker at Goldman Sachs in London for over a decade and then served as the Chief Investment Officer for one of Italy's wealthiest families. He now specializes in debt restructuring and private equity placement in Europe, focusing on complex situations. His work has given him a front row seat to the impact of Brexit, European Central Bank policies and the challenges facing the European economy that investors need to understand. Marco and Lenore's discussion will give investors insight into what is happening and why it is happening in the European Union and what it means today and in the future for investors.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

As we head into the depths of the holiday shopping season, we enjoyed an incredible conversation with Beck Besecker is the co-founder and CEO of Marxent. Founded 2011, Marxent's 3D technology solutions that leverage virtual reality and augmented reality are disrupting how consumers shop. Before Marxent, Beck spent 13 years building interactive marketing solutions for Fortune 500 retailers and brands, including Target Stores and Tesco, so we knew this was going to be a fascinating discussion.

Marxent's first project with Lowes (LOW) was in 2013. The company gained national headlines earlier in 2018 when Macy's (M) released a case study on its partnership with Marxent, a partnership which provided Macy's customers with the ability to design their living spaces using a VR headset which immerses them in virtual rooms they can create. This project is to date the largest VR rollout in retail history. The project has been so successful that Marxent has signed contracts with at least 11 of the top 25 US furniture retailers.

As you can imagine such a use of these disruptive technologies will have a major impact on the shopping and buying process. We discuss some of the surprising, at least to us, in ways in which customer behavior has changed and what the retail shopping experience of the future may become. AR and VR will have a major impact on how we learn, shop and build our lives and Beck is on the cutting edge of this disruptive technology. This is one podcast you cannot miss.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Marxent - https://www.marxentlabs.com
• Marxent - @Marxent
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

On this week's Cocktail Investing Podcast, Tematica's Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace center not only on the rash of holiday shopping data coming out of the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday period but also discuss Fed Chairman Powell's "near neutral" comment on interest rates. That comment led the stock market to rip higher, offering relief to beleaguered investors that saw the majority of 2018 gains for the domestic stock market wiped out in recent weeks. But… you knew there was a but coming… the reasons behind that shift in tone as well as other risks mean we are not out of the woods just yet.

On the podcast, Lenore and Chris explain all of this in further detail and share the confirming data points from the holiday shopping weekend that point to an acceleration in digital shopping that is a cornerstone of our Digital Lifestyleinvesting theme. It's not just online shopping as mobile shopping scored big this year, smashing records in the process, with the two contributing meaningfully to brick and mortar retail traffic pressures. Who benefits and why brick & mortar retailers are likely to be worried about profitless sales this holiday season are shared on the podcast. Chris and Lenore also share the most popular shopping apps, some of which like eBates are in keeping with Tematica's Middle-class Squeezeinvesting theme.

Companies mentioned in this podcast

• Adobe (ADBE)
• Amazon (AMZN)
• Ebay (EBAY)
• Kohl's (KSS)
• Macy's (M)
• National Retail Federation (NRF)
• RetailNext
• Target (TGT)
• TJX Companies (TJX)
• Walmart (WMT)

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

Amid what is supposed to be relatively quiet Thanksgiving holiday week for the stock market and investors, the trials and tribulations of the last few weeks have continued focusing rather intently on the technology sector these last few days. Amid the sea of red, the questions most investors are asking are – What is going on? What do I do next?

We talked about what is going and what most investors are missing in last week's podcast, and in terms of what to do, we're digging into the podcast archives to present a conversation between Tematica's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, as she has Tematica's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, through the ins and outs of thematic investing. At the heart of thematic investing is recognizing the tailwinds associated with the changing landscapes that are in and around us every day. As we give thanks this week and reflect, it seemed like a good time to revisit this podcast and what makes our thematic investing lens shine. As you finish listening to this, you may want to dive into some recent Thematic Signals, the thematic sign posts we share each and every week as well.

We'll have a new podcast next week, and for those that are anticipating the Black Friday to Cyber Monday kick off to the 2018 holiday shopping season, we'd encourage you to listen to our podcast with the National Retail Federation in which we dig into not only how much consumers are likely to spend this holiday season, but where and on what.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

This week on the Cocktail Investing podcast our resident mixologists - Chris Versace, Tematica Research's Chief Investment Officer and Lenore Hawkins, Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist – talk about major changes underfoot in the equity and bond markets as well as the major macro factors that are likely to impact investors in the months ahead.

• We've seen a major change in the bond market that few are discussing, but could mean the multi-decade bond bull market has come to an end – or does it?
• Those FANG+ stocks that were once the darlings of the growth focused equity world are now all (except one) trading below their 200-day moving average – what does that mean for the market? What does that mean for you?
• Remember all the drama around Grexit? Well, these days you have to dig pretty deep into the papers to find any discussion on what is happening in Italy and yet the coming years could very well see Italy causing major disruptions in global markets and no one is talking about it. It's not a disaster waiting to happen, but one that is unfolding now.
• While volatility looks to be here to stay (yes, we share why but you have to listen to get those juicy details), our mixologists believe the market is in for more trouble in the months ahead. Despite the recent market roller coaster ride, we're sleeping pretty soundly at night thanks as confirming signals continue to roll in, providing ongoing proof points for Tematica Research's investing themes. Listen in to hear what we are seeing this week for Tematica's Digital Lifestyle, Disruptive Innovators, Guilty Pleasure and Safety & Security investing themes.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

As we push past Halloween and focus on the upcoming holidays, this week we're joined by Katherine Cullenfrom the National Retail Federation to hear about what her organization expects for retailers during this year's holiday shopping season.

While we've all heard the "death of the mall" mantra ad-nauseum, Katherine shared with us that this declaration warrants a Mark Twain style response. While e-Retailing spend as a percent of the consumer's pocketbook is nearly equal to that for brick and mortar retailers, the NRF's findings show 50% of those shopping online say they will pick up their purchases in-store. As for convenience, free shipping has become the ATM of online retail – a must-have rather than a nice-to-have. We saw more evidence of that this week when Amazon announced free shipping on all US holiday orders, a move designed to thwart Target and others that are offering free two-day shipping on all orders from November 1 to December 22.

When it comes to the experience, retailtainment has evolved as a way to draw consumers in to compete on more than just price or convenience. From in-store events, give-aways and parties, retailers and mall operators are getting creative to lure shoppers this holiday season.

As for how much consumers are expected to spend, the NFR survey found that on average, the 7,313 respondents to their survey expect to spend 4.1% more this holiday season than last which translates into over $1,000 on gifts, food decorations, greeting cards and the ever-popular self-gifting. Katherine also gave us her take on what would be this year's hot gift. Chris, eternally the trendsetter, already has it and agreed wholeheartedly.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• National Retail Federation: nrf.com
• National Retail Federation - @NRFNews
• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting

During August and September, Tematica's resident mixologists, Lenore Hawkins and Chris Versace, shared their views and convictions surrounding the risks to be ha with the current September quarter earnings season and corporate guidance. As we've seen in the last few weeks, those concerns were well founded. In this episode of the Cocktail Investing podcast, Lenore and Chris not only revisit those concerns but share what they think will be driving the stock market narrative as the current earnings season ends in the next few weeks. Those factors are likely to keep investors and stocks on edge as we race toward the end of 2018 and into 2019.

Amid the volatile earnings season, the mixologists have continued to uncover a number of confirming signals for Tematica's 10 investing themes from the likes of Coca-Cola (KO), General Motors (GM), Facebook (FB), Yum! Brands (YUM), Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) as well as iRobot (IRBT) to name several. Wondering what those signals are and what they mean? Listen in and find out.

Have a topic we should tackle on the podcast, email me at [email protected]

And don't forget to subscribe to the Cocktail Investing Podcast on iTunes!

Resources for this podcast:

• Chris Versace –@_ChrisVersace
• Lenore Hawkins –@EllesEconomy
• Tematica Research – https://www.tematicaresearch.com
• Themes Report: https://www.tematicaresearch.com/whatisthematicinvesting